2050 Draft Board

880 scraped prospects ranked by Win Value percentile (vs all pros + college) | Denver selected: Ackerman (#10), McGhie (#72)

Metrics Quick Reference

COLUMN	WHAT IT MEANS
Win Value %	Prospect's Player Win Value as a percentile vs all 516 current pros. Higher = more pro-ready talent. Based on 32 skill ratings weighted by win correlation (R2=0.642).
Positional BSI	Position-specific Box Score Impact projection using PG/SG/SF/PF/C-tuned coefficients. Higher = better projected impact for that position group. Green (40+) = strong positional fit. Orange (20-40) = average. Red (<20) = weak for position.
Peak Win Model	Projected peak Win Model score. Estimates how good a prospect will be at their ceiling, based on estimated PA + position + development trajectory.
PA Est	Estimated Potential Ability (the game's hidden ceiling rating, 1-5 scale). Blended from Win Value trajectory analysis + Pro Potential scouting grade. 4.0+ = star upside, 3.0+ = solid starter.
Div	Peak Win Model vs PA divergence. ▲ = win model ranks skills higher than PA suggests (often bigs). ▼ = PA sees more ceiling than skills project (often guards — potential development bet). Double arrows = strong divergence (≥15%).
Mock	Average mock draft position across JD.Net, HP, and JSPN. Predicts where a player will be drafted, not how good they'll be.
Bal WV	Win Value adjusted for Balanced offensive philosophy (Denver HC Carson Killingsworth). Applies empirically-derived multipliers to each skill coefficient based on how that skill correlates with Balanced system proficiency.

Historical draft pick outcomes across 437 drafted players | What should Denver expect at #10?

prospects | above average | Denver selected: Ackerman (#10), McGhie (#72)

DECISION TREE DRAFT RESULTS

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Character

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96.4%

STAR RATE (PICKS 6-10)

CA >= 4.0

0.0%

BUST RATE (PICKS 6-10)

CA < 2.0

4.5

MEDIAN CA (PICKS 6-10)

n=55 veterans

100.0%

STARTER RATE (PICKS 6-10)

CA >= 3.0

Draft Value Analysis

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Value by Pick Range

RANGE	N	AVG CA	AVG IMPACT	STAR%	BUST%
1-3	45	4.53	55.6	92.3%	0.0%
4-5	27	4.48	54.9	95.7%	0.0%
6-10 *	65	4.4	52.2	96.4%	0.0%
11-20	101	4.04	49.6	84.0%	0.0%
21-40	125	3.9	48.0	82.2%	0.0%
41-60	59	3.59	46.0	66.7%	0.0%
61+	15	3.5	40.4	70.0%	0.0%

* Denver's pick range | Star = CA >= 4.0, Bust = CA < 2.0 | Veterans only (3+ yrs pro)

Historical Picks 8-12

#	NAME	TEAM	CA	PA	IMPACT
8	Nazir Link *	Austin Rockets	4.0	3.5	53
8	Dimitris Karras	Charlotte Drones	4.0	4.0	45
8	Raekwon Pack	Dallas Predators	5.0	4.0	61
8	Kel Pendergast	Denver Dragons	4.5	4.0	55
8	Willie Bennett	Las Vegas Scorpions	4.5	3.0	62
8	Terrence Swan	Louisville Colonels	5.0	3.5	57
8	Vasja Delimont *	Oakland Tritons	3.0	4.0	40
8	Leon Hawthorne	Oklahoma City Barons	5.0	3.5	72
8	Devon Walton	Philadelphia Warriors	4.5	3.0	52
8	Demitrius Waltz	Phoenix Vultures	4.5	3.5	55
8	Isaac Lopez	Portland Lumberjacks	4.0	2.5	46
8	Conner Pearson	St Louis Skyhawks	5.0	4.0	52
8	Ambrose Udoh	Toronto Huskies	5.0	4.0	52
9	Scoochie Hope	Atlanta Devils	5.0	3.5	54
9	Keyon McCoy	Charlotte Drones	4.5	3.5	52
9	René Köpke *	Charlotte Drones	4.0	4.5	25
9	Ðorde Petrović	Cleveland Giants	4.5	2.5	36
9	Kaimyn Fry	Denver Dragons	4.0	3.0	35
9	Anthony Beamer	Miami Cyclones	4.0	3.0	43
9	Stephan Rayner	New York Renegades	4.5	3.0	51
9	Tre Braun	Philadelphia Warriors	5.0	3.5	72
9	DJ McCants	Phoenix Vultures	5.0	4.0	57
9	Jordan Kolaxis	Phoenix Vultures	4.5	3.0	53
9	Kylian Fontaine *	Phoenix Vultures	3.5	5.0	31
9	Jordan Johnson Jr	Vancouver Wolves	4.5	3.0	42
10	Bogdan Nikolic	Dallas Predators	4.5	3.0	43
10	Waylan Loftin	Dallas Predators	4.0	4.5	73
10	Jamaya Patton	Indiana Stonecutters	4.5	3.0	36
10	James Winters	Kansas City Knights	5.0	3.5	49
10	Triston Dantley *	Los Angeles Fireballs	4.0	5.0	44
10	Jamarcus Payne	Minneapolis Blizzards	4.5	3.0	49
10	Anvar Makiev *	Oakland Tritons	3.5	5.0	33
10	Marco De Luca	Oklahoma City Barons	4.5	4.5	76
10	Xavier Lowe	Philadelphia Warriors	4.5	3.5	66
10	Tra'Vaughn Tauaefa	Philadelphia Warriors	4.0	3.0	52
10	Demitrius Burns	Portland Lumberjacks	4.5	3.5	78
10	Evan Demery	Washington Pilots	4.0	2.5	63
11	Cassius LeVert	Baltimore Bullets	4.0	2.5	51
11	Adrian Schwartz	Cleveland Giants	4.5	3.5	67
11	Garrick Jurkin	Denver Dragons	5.0	3.5	59
11	LaMarcus Quinn *	Denver Dragons	3.5	3.5	39
11	Leonardo Bianchi	Houston Lightning	4.0	3.0	42
11	Detric Akenten	Louisville Colonels	4.0	2.0	56
11	Kaan Korkmaz *	Nashville Stars	3.5	4.0	21
11	Al-Amir Geyen	New Orleans Hurricanes	4.0	3.0	43
11	Antonio Lopez	New York Renegades	4.0	2.0	61
11	Landon Battier	Oakland Tritons	5.0	3.5	68
11	Zion Buckner	Philadelphia Warriors	4.5	3.0	52
11	Dejon Wright	Phoenix Vultures	4.0	2.0	54
11	Lance Jacobsen	Pittsburgh Vipers	4.0	2.0	47
12	Omari Swift	Baltimore Bullets	3.5	3.0	32
12	Gage Woodward	Chicago Jailbirds	4.5	3.5	49
12	McKinley Power *	Cleveland Giants	3.5	5.0	47
12	Ruben Miramontes	Kansas City Knights	4.5	3.5	60
12	DeLazarus Russell	Las Vegas Scorpions	4.5	4.0	51
12	Guy Vasquez	Los Angeles Fireballs	4.5	3.0	60
12	Lyles Heimuli *	Miami Cyclones	3.0	4.0	44
12	Tiago Fernandes	Nashville Stars	4.0	2.5	38
12	Tenzin Ozer	Oklahoma City Barons	4.0	2.5	61
12	Mustapha Efianayi	Pittsburgh Vipers	4.5	3.0	60
12	Jose Aguirre	Portland Lumberjacks	3.5	3.0	47
12	Kostas Zonas	Vancouver Wolves	5.0	5.0	75

* Young player (1-2 yrs pro) -- may not have reached peak

BEST VALUE PICKS

#	NAME	TEAM	IMPACT	SURPLUS
23	Stanley Amakor	Chicago Jailbirds	90	+39
22	Cole Kopelani	Mexico City Jaguars	86	+35
4	Veljko Pavlovic	Oklahoma City Barons	87	+32
29	Austin Ross	Baltimore Bullets	76	+25
15	Alzee Sessoms	Cleveland Giants	77	+25

Impact far above draft slot expectation

BIGGEST MISSES

#	NAME	TEAM	IMPACT	DEFICIT
19	Sebastian Steinbach	Denver Dragons	0	-52
55	Jamaree Dupay	Chicago Jailbirds	0	-51
31	James Panzini	Portland Lumberjacks	0	-51
1	Laurynas Linartas	Atlanta Devils	29	-31
3	Jaleel Stripling	Portland Lumberjacks	32	-28

Impact far below draft slot expectation

DENVER #10 IMPLICATIONS

Picks 6-10 have a 96.4% chance of producing a Star (CA 4.0+) and a 100.0% chance of producing a starter-caliber player.

Median outcome: CA 4.5 across 55 historical veterans.

Trading up (to 1-3): avg CA gain = +0.14

Trading down (to 11-20): avg CA loss = -0.28

Value curve is flat in 6-20 range -- trading down costs little in expected value while gaining additional assets.

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