Endurance & Fatigue Model
League-wide regression: Endurance rating → fatigue thresholds. players, season.
Denver Dragons — Fatigue Profiles
| Player | END | Risk | MPG | Stint | Tiring/G | NR/G | Rest | Blk/T | Max Cont | Blk/G | GP | Fatigue Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Fatigue Timing Heatmap — Denver
Each column = 2-minute block (24 total: 6 per quarter × 4 quarters). Cell value = % of games where the player’s rotation sub carried a fatigue label during that block. Subs are rotation-scheduled — fatigue degrades performance but never triggers a sub. Redder = more often fatigued at that point in the game.
| Player | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Quarter Break Recovery
Positive = fatigue drops after quarter break (recovery). Negative = fatigue carries over. Measured as fatigue rate at quarter end minus first block of next quarter.
Endurance → Needs Rest Rate (League Curve)
0
Endurance Rating →
Endurance → Consecutive 2-Min Blocks Before Tiring
0
Endurance Rating →
League Fatigue Risk — Top 25
| # | Player | Team | END | Risk | NR/G | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Game Context Effects
Close Games (≤pts)
Normal Games
Blowouts (≥pts)
Model Coefficients (Needs Rest Rate)
| Feature | Coefficient | 95% CI | Significant |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes No |