Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM)
Expected impact and skill ratings for the 2050 season using win model and on-court data. See below for more info.
| SHOOTING | PLAYMAKING | DEFENSE | REBOUNDING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EPM and Estimated Skills are the best estimate of player impact and skill for the 2050 season. They combine on-court impact data (55% weight) with win model projections from 32 skill ratings (45% weight) to produce a composite impact score mapped to a BPM-like differential scale (mean=0, stdev=3).
The win model is a multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, adj-R2=0.476) trained across 11 seasons (2039-2049). Top drivers: Post Defense, On-Ball Perimeter D, Defensive Rebounding, 3PT Shooting, Spacing. Position-specific models available for Guard/Wing/PF/C.
The displayed skill ratings (1-20 scale) represent the player's current ability as scouted. Cell shading reflects league-wide percentile rank. The horizontal bar visualization shows overall EPM differential — green bars indicate above-average impact, red bars indicate below-average.