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01
Team Correlations
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TEAM-LEVEL CORRELATIONS WITH WIN PERCENTAGE (n = 36)
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FULL RANKED TABLE (sorted by |Pearson r|)
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Rank Variable Group r p rho p_sp
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1 shooting_Inside Shooting wt_rating 0.733 0.0000 0.692 0.0000
2 shooting_Inside Shooting team_avg_rating 0.693 0.0000 0.662 0.0000
3 rebounding_Defensive Rebounding team_avg_rating 0.668 0.0000 0.651 0.0000
4 rebounding_Defensive Rebounding wt_rating 0.667 0.0000 0.680 0.0000
5 defense_Help Defense wt_rating 0.642 0.0000 0.605 0.0001
6 execution_Pick & Roll Execution wt_rating 0.636 0.0000 0.594 0.0001
7 defense_Help Defense team_avg_rating 0.634 0.0000 0.605 0.0001
8 execution_Pick & Roll Execution team_avg_rating 0.595 0.0001 0.581 0.0002
9 shooting_3PT Shooting wt_rating 0.590 0.0002 0.637 0.0000
10 rebounding_Offensive Rebounding team_avg_rating 0.568 0.0003 0.566 0.0003
11 execution_Isolation Execution wt_rating 0.560 0.0004 0.518 0.0012
12 rebounding_Offensive Rebounding wt_rating 0.558 0.0004 0.558 0.0004
13 defense_Rim Protection team_avg_rating 0.517 0.0012 0.440 0.0073
14 pace_and_space proficiency 0.510 0.0015 0.524 0.0010
15 physical_Endurance wt_rating 0.468 0.0040 0.489 0.0025
16 creation_Shoot Off Dribble wt_rating 0.462 0.0046 0.397 0.0165
17 shooting_3PT Shooting team_avg_rating 0.461 0.0047 0.498 0.0020
18 creation_Finishing wt_rating 0.458 0.0049 0.402 0.0152
19 creation_Ball Dominance wt_rating 0.454 0.0054 0.474 0.0035
20 execution_Isolation Execution team_avg_rating 0.438 0.0075 0.453 0.0056
21 defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense wt_rating 0.436 0.0079 0.408 0.0135
22 defense_Rim Protection wt_rating 0.426 0.0096 0.396 0.0168
23 playmaking_Playmaking wt_rating 0.421 0.0106 0.401 0.0154
24 playmaking_Ball Handling wt_rating 0.401 0.0153 0.435 0.0080
25 creation_Finishing team_avg_rating 0.400 0.0156 0.339 0.0434
26 creation_Self-Creation wt_rating 0.400 0.0157 0.429 0.0090
27 creation_Ball Dominance team_avg_rating 0.391 0.0184 0.402 0.0151
28 playmaking_Spacing wt_rating 0.366 0.0283 0.383 0.0212
29 creation_Shoot Off Dribble team_avg_rating 0.349 0.0370 0.350 0.0367
30 defense_Stealing wt_rating 0.340 0.0423 0.232 0.1734
31 execution_Post Execution team_avg_rating 0.338 0.0436 0.340 0.0426
32 playmaking_Gravity wt_rating 0.333 0.0473 0.351 0.0358
33 physical_Endurance team_avg_rating 0.326 0.0527 0.308 0.0679
34 defense_Off-Ball Defense wt_rating 0.323 0.0550 0.303 0.0726
35 physical_Strength wt_rating 0.312 0.0643 0.291 0.0853
36 playmaking_Spacing team_avg_rating 0.309 0.0666 0.296 0.0797
37 execution_Basketball IQ wt_rating 0.308 0.0672 0.249 0.1435
38 physical_Strength team_avg_rating 0.298 0.0772 0.272 0.1079
39 playmaking_Passing wt_rating 0.297 0.0786 0.197 0.2483
40 execution_Post Execution wt_rating 0.295 0.0810 0.323 0.0544
41 shooting_Free Throws wt_rating 0.291 0.0851 0.397 0.0166
42 defense_Post Defense team_avg_rating 0.291 0.0852 0.292 0.0845
43 perimeter_centric proficiency -0.285 0.0918 -0.407 0.0136
44 morey_ball proficiency 0.271 0.1098 0.247 0.1457
45 defense_Off-Ball Defense team_avg_rating 0.264 0.1202 0.218 0.2016
46 execution_Basketball IQ team_avg_rating 0.262 0.1234 0.221 0.1949
47 defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense team_avg_rating 0.243 0.1533 0.211 0.2164
48 playmaking_Playmaking team_avg_rating 0.235 0.1681 0.243 0.1535
49 defense_Stealing team_avg_rating 0.232 0.1742 0.149 0.3858
50 grit_and_grind proficiency 0.231 0.1761 0.296 0.0792
51 creation_Foul Drawing team_avg_rating 0.218 0.2012 0.131 0.4461
52 physical_Athleticism team_avg_rating -0.215 0.2086 -0.234 0.1699
53 defense_Post Defense wt_rating 0.213 0.2114 0.227 0.1839
54 playmaking_Passing team_avg_rating 0.213 0.2124 0.182 0.2893
55 playmaking_Ball Handling team_avg_rating 0.205 0.2304 0.272 0.1081
56 physical_Athleticism wt_rating -0.195 0.2535 -0.202 0.2380
57 physical_Speed wt_rating 0.192 0.2619 0.182 0.2869
58 creation_Self-Creation team_avg_rating 0.188 0.2725 0.189 0.2702
59 physical_First Step wt_rating 0.185 0.2796 0.221 0.1962
60 creation_Foul Drawing wt_rating 0.183 0.2847 0.077 0.6554
61 playmaking_Gravity team_avg_rating 0.172 0.3158 0.206 0.2280
62 shooting_Mid-Range Shooting wt_rating 0.165 0.3377 0.134 0.4372
63 shooting_Free Throws team_avg_rating 0.130 0.4501 0.251 0.1392
64 triangle proficiency 0.118 0.4920 0.116 0.5001
65 physical_Speed team_avg_rating 0.117 0.4982 0.119 0.4904
66 physical_Quickness wt_rating 0.084 0.6247 -0.023 0.8933
67 physical_First Step team_avg_rating 0.084 0.6256 0.110 0.5236
68 shooting_Mid-Range Shooting team_avg_rating 0.076 0.6598 0.036 0.8352
69 balanced proficiency 0.051 0.7692 0.079 0.6470
70 seven_seconds proficiency -0.046 0.7909 0.032 0.8515
71 physical_Quickness team_avg_rating 0.008 0.9648 -0.036 0.8334
72 post_centric proficiency 0.007 0.9674 -0.084 0.6264
TOP-10 WITH BOOTSTRAP 95% CI (5000 resamples)
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Rank Variable r 95% CI
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1 shooting_Inside Shooting 0.733 [+0.489, +0.887]
2 shooting_Inside Shooting 0.693 [+0.465, +0.852]
3 rebounding_Defensive Rebounding 0.668 [+0.494, +0.806]
4 rebounding_Defensive Rebounding 0.667 [+0.501, +0.798]
5 defense_Help Defense 0.642 [+0.428, +0.797]
6 execution_Pick & Roll Execution 0.636 [+0.389, +0.811]
7 defense_Help Defense 0.634 [+0.403, +0.792]
8 execution_Pick & Roll Execution 0.595 [+0.315, +0.812]
9 shooting_3PT Shooting 0.590 [+0.323, +0.783]
10 rebounding_Offensive Rebounding 0.568 [+0.341, +0.760]
GROUP AVERAGES
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wt_rating mean |r| = 0.387 max |r| = 0.733 (n=32 vars)
team_avg_rating mean |r| = 0.317 max |r| = 0.693 (n=32 vars)
proficiency mean |r| = 0.190 max |r| = 0.510 (n=8 vars)
02
Rating Stat Mapping
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RATING-TO-STAT MAPPING (n = 379 players, min 20 GP)
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Total correlation tests: 480
Significant at p < 0.05 (uncorrected): 356
Significant at q < 0.05 (BH FDR): 349
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BEST RATING PREDICTOR FOR EACH STAT
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Stat Best Rating Predictor r p q
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PTS creation_Ball Dominance 0.268 1.18e-07 3.10e-07 ***
TRB rebounding_Defensive Rebounding 0.672 3.27e-51 3.14e-49 ***
AST playmaking_Passing 0.640 3.93e-45 1.89e-43 ***
STL defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense 0.739 1.54e-66 2.46e-64 ***
BLK defense_Rim Protection 0.829 5.50e-97 1.32e-94 ***
FG% execution_Post Execution 0.652 3.26e-47 2.23e-45 ***
3P% shooting_3PT Shooting 0.649 1.05e-46 5.58e-45 ***
FT% shooting_Free Throws 0.862 3.03e-113 1.45e-110 ***
TOV physical_Athleticism 0.279 3.51e-08 1.01e-07 ***
eFG% execution_Post Execution 0.359 5.87e-13 2.27e-12 ***
PER execution_Pick & Roll Execution 0.164 1.38e-03 2.18e-03 **
TS% execution_Post Execution 0.415 3.03e-17 1.50e-16 ***
WS/48 shooting_Inside Shooting 0.273 6.75e-08 1.83e-07 ***
BPM shooting_Inside Shooting 0.308 8.47e-10 2.79e-09 ***
VORP playmaking_Passing 0.324 1.05e-10 3.69e-10 ***
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BEST STAT PREDICTED BY EACH RATING
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Rating Best Stat r p q
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creation_Ball Dominance VORP 0.289 1.05e-08 3.20e-08 ***
creation_Finishing WS/48 0.133 9.71e-03 1.41e-02 *
creation_Foul Drawing FG% 0.370 9.20e-14 3.81e-13 ***
creation_Self-Creation STL 0.476 7.76e-23 6.43e-22 ***
creation_Shoot Off Dribble STL 0.572 2.36e-34 4.93e-33 ***
defense_Help Defense VORP 0.278 3.87e-08 1.09e-07 ***
defense_Off-Ball Defense STL 0.613 1.51e-40 5.16e-39 ***
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense STL 0.739 1.54e-66 2.46e-64 ***
defense_Post Defense BLK 0.734 2.58e-65 3.09e-63 ***
defense_Rim Protection BLK 0.829 5.50e-97 1.32e-94 ***
defense_Stealing STL 0.664 1.93e-49 1.54e-47 ***
execution_Basketball IQ VORP 0.098 5.55e-02 7.45e-02
execution_Isolation Execution STL 0.437 4.59e-19 2.65e-18 ***
execution_Pick & Roll Execution AST 0.273 6.49e-08 1.77e-07 ***
execution_Post Execution FG% 0.652 3.26e-47 2.23e-45 ***
physical_Athleticism STL 0.405 2.25e-16 1.05e-15 ***
physical_Endurance STL 0.270 9.71e-08 2.56e-07 ***
physical_First Step STL 0.385 8.40e-15 3.60e-14 ***
physical_Quickness STL 0.487 5.56e-24 5.23e-23 ***
physical_Speed STL 0.568 9.49e-34 1.90e-32 ***
physical_Strength TRB 0.482 1.95e-23 1.74e-22 ***
playmaking_Ball Handling AST 0.634 4.35e-44 1.74e-42 ***
playmaking_Gravity STL 0.516 3.40e-27 3.98e-26 ***
playmaking_Passing AST 0.640 3.93e-45 1.89e-43 ***
playmaking_Playmaking AST 0.597 6.53e-38 1.57e-36 ***
playmaking_Spacing STL 0.546 7.32e-31 1.00e-29 ***
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding TRB 0.672 3.27e-51 3.14e-49 ***
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding TRB 0.606 2.51e-39 7.10e-38 ***
shooting_3PT Shooting 3P% 0.649 1.05e-46 5.58e-45 ***
shooting_Free Throws FT% 0.862 3.03e-113 1.45e-110 ***
shooting_Inside Shooting BPM 0.308 8.47e-10 2.79e-09 ***
shooting_Mid-Range Shooting STL 0.434 7.10e-19 4.01e-18 ***
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TOP 20 STRONGEST INDIVIDUAL CORRELATIONS
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Rating Stat r q
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shooting_Free Throws FT% 0.862 1.45e-110 ***
defense_Rim Protection BLK 0.829 1.32e-94 ***
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense STL 0.739 2.46e-64 ***
defense_Post Defense BLK 0.734 3.09e-63 ***
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding TRB 0.672 3.14e-49 ***
defense_Stealing STL 0.664 1.54e-47 ***
execution_Post Execution FG% 0.652 2.23e-45 ***
execution_Post Execution BLK 0.651 2.57e-45 ***
shooting_3PT Shooting 3P% 0.649 5.58e-45 ***
playmaking_Passing AST 0.640 1.89e-43 ***
defense_Rim Protection TRB 0.638 4.00e-43 ***
playmaking_Ball Handling AST 0.634 1.74e-42 ***
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense FG% -0.619 8.21e-40 ***
defense_Off-Ball Defense STL 0.613 5.16e-39 ***
execution_Post Execution TRB 0.608 4.20e-38 ***
playmaking_Ball Handling STL 0.606 6.91e-38 ***
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding TRB 0.606 7.10e-38 ***
execution_Post Execution STL -0.603 1.90e-37 ***
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense BLK -0.602 2.66e-37 ***
playmaking_Playmaking AST 0.597 1.57e-36 ***
03
Regression Model
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A. BIVARIATE OLS: each predictor vs win_pct (n = 36)
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Rank Variable R2 adj_R2 slope p
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1 creation_Foul Drawing 0.280 0.259 0.0290 0.0009 ***
2 creation_Foul Drawing 0.220 0.197 0.0264 0.0039 **
3 physical_Strength 0.207 0.183 -0.0170 0.0054 **
4 creation_Shoot Off Dribble 0.173 0.149 -0.0135 0.0116 *
5 physical_Strength 0.165 0.140 -0.0151 0.0140 *
6 creation_Shoot Off Dribble 0.160 0.136 -0.0132 0.0155 *
7 execution_Pick & Roll Execution 0.132 0.107 -0.0139 0.0294 *
8 execution_Pick & Roll Execution 0.132 0.106 -0.0133 0.0295 *
9 physical_Endurance 0.095 0.068 -0.0146 0.0674
10 defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense 0.094 0.067 -0.0114 0.0687
11 defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense 0.091 0.064 -0.0115 0.0742
12 physical_Endurance 0.084 0.057 -0.0134 0.0869
13 defense_Post Defense 0.065 0.037 -0.0111 0.1350
14 execution_Post Execution 0.053 0.025 0.0117 0.1787
15 physical_First Step 0.052 0.024 -0.0106 0.1803
16 defense_Post Defense 0.049 0.021 -0.0102 0.1956
17 defense_Rim Protection 0.044 0.016 -0.0117 0.2207
18 creation_Finishing 0.039 0.011 -0.0098 0.2475
19 defense_Help Defense 0.038 0.010 -0.0100 0.2533
20 defense_Stealing 0.037 0.009 -0.0075 0.2615
21 defense_Stealing 0.036 0.008 -0.0080 0.2666
22 defense_Rim Protection 0.036 0.007 -0.0103 0.2702
23 physical_Quickness 0.033 0.005 -0.0102 0.2892
24 physical_Quickness 0.033 0.004 -0.0099 0.2894
25 execution_Isolation Execution 0.030 0.001 -0.0090 0.3150
26 defense_Off-Ball Defense 0.027 -0.001 -0.0074 0.3355
27 defense_Help Defense 0.026 -0.002 -0.0073 0.3443
28 creation_Finishing 0.026 -0.003 -0.0076 0.3491
29 physical_Athleticism 0.024 -0.004 -0.0085 0.3644
30 execution_Post Execution 0.024 -0.005 0.0081 0.3664
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B. FORWARD STEPWISE SELECTION (max 4 predictors, adj-R2)
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Step 1: +creation_Foul Drawing adj-R2 = 0.1975
Step 2: +physical_Strength adj-R2 = 0.3121
Step 3: +creation_Shoot Off Dribble adj-R2 = 0.3782
Step 4: +shooting_3PT Shooting adj-R2 = 0.4431
Final stepwise model variables:
- creation_Foul Drawing
- physical_Strength
- creation_Shoot Off Dribble
- shooting_3PT Shooting
R2 = 0.5067 adj-R2 = 0.4431
F-stat = 7.96 p(F) = 1.5482e-04
Variable coef std_err t p
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const 0.3917 0.1571 2.49 0.0182
creation_Foul Drawing 0.0186 0.0073 2.54 0.0162
physical_Strength -0.0129 0.0049 -2.63 0.0133
creation_Shoot Off Dribble -0.0152 0.0050 -3.06 0.0046
shooting_3PT Shooting 0.0168 0.0077 2.17 0.0375
==========================================================================================
C. RIDGE & LASSO WITH LOOCV (n = 36, 32 predictors)
==========================================================================================
Ridge regression grid search...
Best alpha = 51.7947 LOOCV RMSE = 0.0586
Top 10 Ridge coefficients (standardised):
Variable coef
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creation_Foul Drawing 0.0090
physical_Strength -0.0088
creation_Shoot Off Dribble -0.0074
execution_Pick & Roll Execution -0.0068
shooting_Free Throws 0.0042
execution_Post Execution 0.0041
defense_Post Defense -0.0038
playmaking_Playmaking 0.0037
physical_Endurance -0.0033
creation_Finishing -0.0030
Lasso regression grid search...
Best alpha = 0.0072 LOOCV RMSE = 0.0588
Lasso selected 9 non-zero predictors:
Variable coef
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physical_Strength -0.0154
creation_Shoot Off Dribble -0.0147
creation_Foul Drawing 0.0123
execution_Pick & Roll Execution -0.0096
playmaking_Playmaking 0.0064
defense_Post Defense -0.0045
shooting_Inside Shooting 0.0042
shooting_Free Throws 0.0030
shooting_3PT Shooting 0.0010
==========================================================================================
D. PLAYER-LEVEL RIDGE: adv_WS/48 ~ 32 ratings (n = 310)
==========================================================================================
Valid observations: 310
Ridge grid search (LOOCV on player data)...
Best alpha = 85.3168 10-fold CV RMSE = 0.0464
Top 10 player-level Ridge coefficients (standardised, predicting WS/48):
Variable coef
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creation_Foul Drawing 0.0090
shooting_Inside Shooting 0.0076
execution_Pick & Roll Execution 0.0071
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding 0.0069
execution_Post Execution 0.0061
shooting_Free Throws 0.0059
physical_Endurance 0.0051
playmaking_Passing 0.0049
physical_Quickness 0.0048
physical_Athleticism -0.0043
Full-sample R2 = 0.3200
[Section E skipped — C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\draft_eligible_2050.json not found]
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F. RATING INTERACTION EFFECTS (player-level, n = 310)
==========================================================================================
Players for interaction validation: 310
Testing 10 candidate interaction pairs
Baseline 32-rating Ridge: CV R² = 0.1837 (sd=0.1610)
Pair CV R² gain Coef Status
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On-Ball Perimeter Defense x Rim Protection +0.0240 -0.0078 VALIDATED
Off-Ball Defense x Isolation Execution +0.0098 +0.0046 VALIDATED
Self-Creation x Athleticism +0.0001 +0.0017 rejected
Help Defense x Offensive Rebounding +0.0079 +0.0036 VALIDATED
Ball Handling x Defensive Rebounding +0.0237 -0.0086 VALIDATED
Inside Shooting x 3PT Shooting -0.0025 -0.0002 rejected
Pick & Roll Execution x Passing +0.0119 +0.0052 VALIDATED
Speed x Rim Protection +0.0096 -0.0066 VALIDATED
Playmaking x Help Defense -0.0048 -0.0002 rejected
Spacing x Post Execution +0.0105 -0.0052 VALIDATED
Validated: 7 of 10 pairs
--- Final model: 32 main effects + validated interactions ---
Combined CV R² = 0.2579 (sd=0.1531)
Total CV R² gain over baseline: +0.0742
Interaction Coef Direction
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On-Ball Perimeter Defense x Rim Protection -0.0056 anti-synergy
Off-Ball Defense x Isolation Execution +0.0043 synergy
Help Defense x Offensive Rebounding +0.0022 synergy
Ball Handling x Defensive Rebounding -0.0074 anti-synergy
Pick & Roll Execution x Passing +0.0050 synergy
Speed x Rim Protection -0.0044 anti-synergy
Spacing x Post Execution -0.0033 anti-synergy
--- Validated interaction coefficients for config.py ---
INTERACTION_SYNERGIES = {
("Off-Ball Defense", "Isolation Execution"): 0.004269,
("Help Defense", "Offensive Rebounding"): 0.002154,
("Pick & Roll Execution", "Passing"): 0.005017,
}
INTERACTION_ANTI_SYNERGIES = {
("On-Ball Perimeter Defense", "Rim Protection"): -0.005611,
("Ball Handling", "Defensive Rebounding"): -0.007363,
("Speed", "Rim Protection"): -0.00442,
("Spacing", "Post Execution"): -0.003282,
}
--- Extreme mismatch analysis (>=16 in one, <=8 in other) ---
High Rating Low Rating N Avg BPM Balanced BPM Delta
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Ball Handling Defensive Rebounding 50 -0.66 +2.15 -2.81
Defensive Rebounding Ball Handling 62 -0.50 +2.15 -2.65
Speed Rim Protection 67 +0.77 +1.20 -0.43
Rim Protection Speed 65 +0.03 +1.20 -1.17
Inside Shooting 3PT Shooting 22 -0.15 +1.05 -1.20
Help Defense Self-Creation 12 -1.02 +0.90 -1.92
--- Mismatch penalties for config.py ---
MISMATCH_PENALTIES = [
{"high": "Ball Handling", "low": "Defensive Rebounding", "bpm_delta": -2.81},
{"high": "Defensive Rebounding", "low": "Ball Handling", "bpm_delta": -2.65},
{"high": "Speed", "low": "Rim Protection", "bpm_delta": -0.43},
{"high": "Rim Protection", "low": "Speed", "bpm_delta": -1.17},
{"high": "Inside Shooting", "low": "3PT Shooting", "bpm_delta": -1.2},
{"high": "Help Defense", "low": "Self-Creation", "bpm_delta": -1.92},
]
==========================================================================================
G. BOOTSTRAP COEFFICIENT VALIDATION
==========================================================================================
Running team-level bootstrap (n=36, iterations=1000)...
Running player-level bootstrap (n=310, iterations=500)...
Rating Mean Std CV CI Low CI High Rank Status
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
physical_Strength -0.00707 0.00303 0.428 -0.01269 -0.00132 1 STABLE
creation_Foul Drawing 0.00659 0.00415 0.629 -0.00088 0.01380 2 UNSTABLE
creation_Shoot Off Dribble -0.00606 0.00217 0.357 -0.01013 -0.00202 3 STABLE
execution_Pick & Roll Execution -0.00517 0.00165 0.319 -0.00826 -0.00203 4 STABLE
shooting_Free Throws 0.00337 0.00267 0.792 -0.00149 0.00895 5 UNSTABLE
defense_Post Defense -0.00328 0.00138 0.421 -0.00595 -0.00062 6 STABLE
execution_Post Execution 0.00299 0.00232 0.775 -0.00148 0.00740 7 UNSTABLE
physical_Endurance -0.00291 0.00245 0.841 -0.00728 0.00154 8 UNSTABLE
playmaking_Playmaking 0.00291 0.00239 0.822 -0.00175 0.00731 9 UNSTABLE
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense -0.00271 0.00180 0.665 -0.00643 0.00062 10 UNSTABLE
creation_Finishing -0.00253 0.00205 0.808 -0.00667 0.00120 11 UNSTABLE
creation_Self-Creation 0.00246 0.00217 0.882 -0.00154 0.00636 12 UNSTABLE
playmaking_Ball Handling 0.00204 0.00130 0.640 -0.00039 0.00475 13 UNSTABLE
shooting_3PT Shooting 0.00199 0.00210 1.057 -0.00197 0.00599 14 UNSTABLE
shooting_Inside Shooting 0.00197 0.00235 1.192 -0.00254 0.00626 15 UNSTABLE
defense_Stealing -0.00196 0.00177 0.905 -0.00537 0.00143 16 UNSTABLE
physical_First Step -0.00190 0.00243 1.277 -0.00649 0.00266 17 UNSTABLE
defense_Rim Protection -0.00175 0.00180 1.028 -0.00555 0.00152 18 UNSTABLE
playmaking_Spacing 0.00167 0.00186 1.115 -0.00216 0.00503 19 UNSTABLE
defense_Help Defense -0.00160 0.00163 1.020 -0.00470 0.00174 20 UNSTABLE
execution_Basketball IQ -0.00152 0.00260 1.704 -0.00616 0.00293 21 UNSTABLE
execution_Isolation Execution -0.00128 0.00227 1.770 -0.00561 0.00290 22 UNSTABLE
playmaking_Passing 0.00121 0.00212 1.747 -0.00279 0.00561 23 UNSTABLE
physical_Quickness -0.00119 0.00271 2.281 -0.00626 0.00400 24 UNSTABLE
playmaking_Gravity -0.00102 0.00160 1.561 -0.00400 0.00223 25 UNSTABLE
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding 0.00096 0.00256 2.660 -0.00402 0.00580 26 UNSTABLE
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding 0.00093 0.00207 2.210 -0.00272 0.00524 27 UNSTABLE
physical_Speed 0.00073 0.00182 2.483 -0.00341 0.00387 28 UNSTABLE
shooting_Mid-Range Shooting 0.00050 0.00229 4.566 -0.00352 0.00504 29 UNSTABLE
physical_Athleticism -0.00045 0.00208 4.654 -0.00457 0.00336 30 UNSTABLE
defense_Off-Ball Defense -0.00038 0.00219 5.714 -0.00473 0.00375 31 UNSTABLE
creation_Ball Dominance 0.00031 0.00210 6.869 -0.00376 0.00445 32 UNSTABLE
4/32 coefficients stable (CV < 0.50)
PLAYER-LEVEL STABILITY (top 15 by |mean|):
Rating Mean Std CV CI Low CI High
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creation_Foul Drawing 0.00859 0.00219 0.255 0.00432 0.01271
shooting_Inside Shooting 0.00735 0.00224 0.305 0.00288 0.01162
execution_Pick & Roll Execution 0.00687 0.00202 0.294 0.00300 0.01072
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding 0.00665 0.00217 0.326 0.00265 0.01080
execution_Post Execution 0.00574 0.00221 0.385 0.00144 0.00995
shooting_Free Throws 0.00561 0.00199 0.355 0.00154 0.00961
physical_Endurance 0.00473 0.00216 0.456 0.00026 0.00877
playmaking_Passing 0.00461 0.00236 0.512 -0.00022 0.00909
physical_Quickness 0.00436 0.00228 0.525 0.00009 0.00896
playmaking_Playmaking 0.00435 0.00212 0.489 0.00022 0.00829
physical_Athleticism -0.00406 0.00197 0.484 -0.00808 -0.00034
defense_Help Defense 0.00397 0.00206 0.520 -0.00014 0.00799
creation_Shoot Off Dribble 0.00366 0.00222 0.607 -0.00077 0.00790
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense -0.00283 0.00210 0.744 -0.00682 0.00117
physical_First Step -0.00249 0.00209 0.840 -0.00656 0.00166
Validated coefficients exported to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\validated_coefs.json
Chart saved: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\03_predicted_vs_actual.png
Chart saved: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\03_coefficient_importance.png
Chart saved: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\03_interaction_effects.png
04
Denver Gap Analysis
================================================================================
04 - DENVER DRAGONS GAP ANALYSIS
================================================================================
League: 36 teams
Top-3 by win%: Seattle Thunder, Chicago Jailbirds, Kansas City Knights
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: Denver vs Top-3 & League Avg (simple roster means)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rating Denver Top3 Lg Avg Gap Rank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
execution / Post Execution 6.38 8.67 7.96 -2.28 35
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.92 14.00 12.51 -2.08 25
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.46 15.36 13.90 -1.90 22
creation / Foul Drawing 12.15 13.93 13.88 -1.77 36
playmaking / Passing 11.69 13.14 13.13 -1.45 32
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.00 12.43 11.93 -1.43 26
creation / Finishing 14.15 15.50 14.84 -1.35 29
defense / Help Defense 13.54 14.83 13.78 -1.29 23
playmaking / Playmaking 10.31 11.60 11.42 -1.29 29
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 11.46 12.67 11.80 -1.21 20
defense / Stealing 13.23 14.38 12.60 -1.15 11
creation / Self-Creation 13.77 14.90 14.07 -1.14 21
creation / Ball Dominance 12.38 13.48 12.95 -1.09 26
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.69 13.76 12.14 -1.07 15
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.08 17.07 16.61 -0.99 27
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.77 14.60 13.37 -0.83 15
defense / Rim Protection 10.69 11.43 10.48 -0.74 17
shooting / Free Throws 13.92 14.60 14.43 -0.67 28
defense / Post Defense 11.00 11.50 10.78 -0.50 13
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.85 13.19 12.25 -0.34 11
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 11.46 11.55 12.34 -0.09 28
playmaking / Spacing 10.85 10.93 10.79 -0.08 17
playmaking / Gravity 13.62 13.43 13.33 +0.19 15
execution / Basketball IQ 15.23 14.98 14.43 +0.25 8
physical / Athleticism 13.92 13.52 12.95 +0.40 7
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.85 10.29 9.51 +0.56 4
execution / Isolation Execution 14.54 13.71 13.21 +0.82 3
physical / Quickness 13.15 12.07 12.41 +1.08 5
physical / Speed 12.46 11.31 11.27 +1.15 7
physical / First Step 13.54 12.29 11.92 +1.25 3
physical / Endurance 13.38 11.69 11.08 +1.69 2
physical / Strength 14.08 11.43 11.55 +2.65 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: Minutes-Weighted Gap Analysis (ratings weighted by s49_MP)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rating Den(wt) T3(wt) Lg(wt) WtGap WtRnk
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
creation / Foul Drawing 11.37 14.39 14.46 -3.02 36
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.86 14.83 13.02 -2.97 32
playmaking / Playmaking 9.83 12.59 11.96 -2.77 34
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 10.72 13.39 12.15 -2.67 33
execution / Post Execution 6.05 8.55 8.18 -2.50 35
creation / Self-Creation 13.48 15.68 14.61 -2.20 31
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.75 13.70 12.69 -1.95 26
creation / Finishing 14.36 16.08 15.13 -1.72 28
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.34 15.96 14.55 -1.63 18
defense / Help Defense 14.08 15.67 14.38 -1.59 20
shooting / Inside Shooting 15.97 17.45 16.99 -1.49 31
creation / Ball Dominance 12.55 13.92 13.74 -1.37 29
shooting / Free Throws 13.81 15.11 14.68 -1.30 32
defense / Stealing 14.23 15.33 13.20 -1.10 6
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 11.30 12.26 12.48 -0.96 29
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.35 15.08 14.01 -0.73 15
playmaking / Gravity 13.49 14.08 13.68 -0.59 21
playmaking / Passing 13.11 13.65 13.75 -0.54 25
execution / Isolation Execution 14.43 14.91 13.76 -0.47 14
defense / Post Defense 11.63 11.93 11.11 -0.30 12
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.67 13.92 12.75 -0.25 14
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 11.64 11.84 10.13 -0.20 4
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14.42 14.36 12.96 +0.06 3
playmaking / Spacing 11.96 11.82 11.41 +0.14 11
physical / Speed 12.96 12.72 11.58 +0.24 5
defense / Rim Protection 11.93 11.51 10.96 +0.42 8
physical / Endurance 12.82 12.29 11.04 +0.53 2
execution / Basketball IQ 16.01 15.39 14.89 +0.62 5
physical / Athleticism 14.73 13.73 13.25 +1.00 3
physical / First Step 13.95 12.90 11.97 +1.05 2
physical / Quickness 14.29 12.57 12.55 +1.73 2
physical / Strength 14.46 11.79 12.17 +2.67 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: Ratings Most Correlated with Winning + Denver Gap
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rating r(win%) p-val Denver Top3 Gap
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
execution / Pick & Roll Execution +0.669 0.0000 12.69 13.76 -1.07 ***
shooting / 3PT Shooting +0.642 0.0000 13.46 15.36 -1.90 ***
shooting / Inside Shooting +0.604 0.0001 16.08 17.07 -0.99 ***
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense +0.566 0.0003 12.85 13.19 -0.34 ***
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding +0.562 0.0004 11.92 14.00 -2.08 ***
defense / Off-Ball Defense +0.495 0.0021 13.77 14.60 -0.83 ***
execution / Isolation Execution +0.494 0.0022 14.54 13.71 +0.82 ***
creation / Shoot Off Dribble +0.493 0.0023 10.85 10.29 +0.56 ***
defense / Stealing +0.487 0.0026 13.23 14.38 -1.15 ***
playmaking / Spacing +0.475 0.0034 10.85 10.93 -0.08 ***
defense / Help Defense +0.466 0.0041 13.54 14.83 -1.29 ***
creation / Self-Creation +0.449 0.0060 13.77 14.90 -1.14 ***
creation / Finishing +0.401 0.0153 14.15 15.50 -1.35 ***
creation / Ball Dominance +0.398 0.0163 12.38 13.48 -1.09
physical / Speed +0.377 0.0234 12.46 11.31 +1.15
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding +0.353 0.0346 11.46 12.67 -1.21
physical / Endurance +0.319 0.0576 13.38 11.69 +1.69
playmaking / Ball Handling +0.310 0.0660 11.00 12.43 -1.43
creation / Foul Drawing +0.274 0.1058 12.15 13.93 -1.77
playmaking / Gravity +0.272 0.1081 13.62 13.43 +0.19
shooting / Free Throws +0.262 0.1229 13.92 14.60 -0.67
playmaking / Passing +0.213 0.2118 11.69 13.14 -1.45
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting +0.208 0.2235 11.46 11.55 -0.09
playmaking / Playmaking +0.207 0.2268 10.31 11.60 -1.29
physical / Quickness +0.187 0.2748 13.15 12.07 +1.08
physical / First Step +0.187 0.2750 13.54 12.29 +1.25
defense / Rim Protection +0.186 0.2769 10.69 11.43 -0.74
physical / Strength +0.152 0.3759 14.08 11.43 +2.65
defense / Post Defense +0.125 0.4663 11.00 11.50 -0.50
execution / Post Execution +0.098 0.5693 6.38 8.67 -2.28
execution / Basketball IQ +0.037 0.8311 15.23 14.98 +0.25
physical / Athleticism +0.030 0.8611 13.92 13.52 +0.40
*** = |r| >= 0.40 (strongly correlated with winning)
PRIORITY GAPS (r >= 0.30 AND gap < -0.50):
execution / Pick & Roll Execution r=+0.669 gap=-1.07
shooting / 3PT Shooting r=+0.642 gap=-1.90
shooting / Inside Shooting r=+0.604 gap=-0.99
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding r=+0.562 gap=-2.08
defense / Off-Ball Defense r=+0.495 gap=-0.83
defense / Stealing r=+0.487 gap=-1.15
defense / Help Defense r=+0.466 gap=-1.29
creation / Self-Creation r=+0.449 gap=-1.14
creation / Finishing r=+0.401 gap=-1.35
creation / Ball Dominance r=+0.398 gap=-1.09
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding r=+0.353 gap=-1.21
playmaking / Ball Handling r=+0.310 gap=-1.43
05
Archetype System
================================================================================
05 - ARCHETYPE & PROFICIENCY SYSTEM ANALYSIS
================================================================================
League: 36 teams
Top-3 by win%: Seattle Thunder, Chicago Jailbirds, Kansas City Knights
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: Offensive Archetype Counts by Team
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Team Glue Guy Interior Pla Movement Sho Pick-and-Pop Post Bully Post Scorer Primary Ball Roll-and-Cut Secondary Cr Shot Creator Slasher Stationary S Stretch Big Versatile Bi
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta Devils 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 3 2 1 1 0 2
Austin Rockets 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 2 1 0 0 0
Baltimore Bullets 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 5 1 1 0 1 1
Boston Crusaders 2 0 0 1 0 1 3 2 3 1 0 0 1 1
Charlotte Drones 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 3 0 1 0 0 0
Chicago Jailbirds 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 1 0 2 0 2
Cincinnati Kings 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 2 1 2 1 0
Cleveland Giants 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 0 0 0 1 1
Dallas Predators 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 4 1 2 0 0 2
Denver Dragons 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 5 1 0 0 0 0
Detroit Mustangs 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 5 0 1 0 1 1
Houston Lightning 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 6 2 0 1 0 0
Indiana Stonecutters 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 1 0 0 2 2
Kansas City Knights 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 5 1 0 1 0 1
Las Vegas Scorpions 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 5 2 0 0 1 2
Los Angeles Fireballs 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 4 1 0 0 1 2
Louisville Colonels 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 1 0 0 1 0
Mexico City Jaguars 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 2 4 2 0 0 0 0
Miami Cyclones 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 2 0 1 0 1
Minneapolis Blizzards 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 4 1 0 1 1 1
Nashville Stars 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 0 3
New Orleans Hurricanes 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 6 0 0 0 1 0
New York Renegades 3 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 1
Oakland Tritons 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 3 6 0 0 1 0 1
Oklahoma City Barons 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 5 2 0 0 0 0
Philadelphia Warriors 3 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 1
Phoenix Vultures 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 4 3 0 0 0 0
Pittsburgh Vipers 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 6 0 1 1 0 0
Portland Lumberjacks 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 2 0 2 0 2
Salt Lake City Saints 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 1 0 0 1 1
San Diego Calaveras 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 6 1 0 0 3 0
Seattle Thunder 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 4 1 3 0 2 0 0
St Louis Skyhawks 2 1 0 0 2 2 3 0 4 1 0 0 0 0
Toronto Huskies 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 3 6 0 0 0 0 0
Vancouver Wolves 2 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 4 2 0 1 0 0
Washington Pilots 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 1 0 0 0 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: Defensive Archetype Counts by Team
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Team Anchor Big Chaser Helper Low Activity Mobile Big Point Of Att Wing Stopper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta Devils 2 1 2 0 2 2 6
Austin Rockets 3 1 1 0 1 4 4
Baltimore Bullets 4 1 1 0 1 1 5
Boston Crusaders 3 0 2 0 2 4 4
Charlotte Drones 1 3 0 0 4 2 3
Chicago Jailbirds 1 2 0 0 5 2 5
Cincinnati Kings 2 0 3 0 1 2 7
Cleveland Giants 3 3 1 0 3 2 3
Dallas Predators 3 4 1 0 2 3 2
Denver Dragons 3 0 1 0 1 3 6
Detroit Mustangs 3 0 4 0 1 2 5
Houston Lightning 4 2 0 0 1 2 6
Indiana Stonecutters 3 1 0 1 3 2 4
Kansas City Knights 1 1 2 0 3 3 3
Las Vegas Scorpions 4 1 2 0 1 4 3
Los Angeles Fireballs 4 2 0 0 3 2 3
Louisville Colonels 2 0 2 0 3 4 4
Mexico City Jaguars 2 0 0 1 2 3 6
Miami Cyclones 1 1 1 0 3 2 6
Minneapolis Blizzards 4 1 1 0 2 3 4
Nashville Stars 2 0 3 0 2 3 5
New Orleans Hurricanes 3 1 0 0 2 3 5
New York Renegades 2 0 0 0 3 1 8
Oakland Tritons 3 2 0 0 3 1 6
Oklahoma City Barons 3 1 1 0 1 2 6
Philadelphia Warriors 1 0 1 0 3 4 5
Phoenix Vultures 2 0 1 0 1 4 5
Pittsburgh Vipers 3 1 1 0 1 1 7
Portland Lumberjacks 2 0 2 0 2 4 3
Salt Lake City Saints 3 1 4 0 1 3 3
San Diego Calaveras 3 1 2 0 2 3 4
Seattle Thunder 3 0 0 0 1 3 7
St Louis Skyhawks 2 0 1 0 2 4 6
Toronto Huskies 4 0 2 0 1 3 5
Vancouver Wolves 1 0 1 0 2 3 6
Washington Pilots 3 1 1 0 2 3 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: Archetype Count Correlations with Win%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Archetype r(win%) p-value
-------------------------------------------------------
Off: Shot Creator +0.333 0.0473
Off: Stationary Shooter +0.318 0.0585
Off: Movement Shooter +0.292 0.0843
Off: Interior Playmaker +0.277 0.1019
Def: Point Of Attack +0.167 0.3313
Def: Mobile Big +0.065 0.7081
Off: Pick-and-Pop Big +0.054 0.7533
Def: Helper +0.007 0.9666
Off: Glue Guy -0.020 0.9063
Off: Post Scorer -0.050 0.7735
Off: Slasher -0.052 0.7650
Off: Roll-and-Cut Big -0.060 0.7268
Off: Stretch Big -0.086 0.6171
Def: Wing Stopper -0.097 0.5754
Def: Low Activity -0.111 0.5188
Def: Chaser -0.121 0.4835
Off: Primary Ballhandler -0.155 0.3672
Off: Versatile Big -0.167 0.3300
Def: Anchor Big -0.226 0.1857
Off: Post Bully -0.330 0.0492
Off: Secondary Creator -0.386 0.0201 **
** = |r| >= 0.35
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: Proficiency Averages Correlated with Win%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proficiency r(win%) p-val Denver Top3 Gap
----------------------------------------------------------------------
pace_and_space +0.387 0.0196 8.79 17.96 -9.17
grit_and_grind +0.236 0.1663 5.64 3.09 +2.55
morey_ball +0.230 0.1779 12.50 13.96 -1.46
triangle +0.059 0.7337 2.36 1.25 +1.11
balanced -0.064 0.7094 20.00 15.36 +4.64
post_centric -0.098 0.5709 1.00 2.45 -1.45
seven_seconds -0.230 0.1777 1.29 2.38 -1.09
perimeter_centric -0.319 0.0581 1.00 1.14 -0.14
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: Denver vs Top-3 Archetype Mix
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OFFENSIVE ARCHETYPES:
Archetype Denver Top3/team Diff
------------------------------------------------------------
Glue Guy 2 0.0 +2.0
Interior Playmaker 0 1.0 -1.0
Movement Shooter 0 1.0 -1.0
Post Scorer 2 0.7 +1.3
Primary Ballhandler 2 1.0 +1.0
Roll-and-Cut Big 2 2.7 -0.7
Secondary Creator 5 3.3 +1.7
Shot Creator 1 1.7 -0.7
Stationary Shooter 0 1.7 -1.7
Versatile Big 0 1.0 -1.0
DEFENSIVE ARCHETYPES:
Archetype Denver Top3/team Diff
------------------------------------------------------------
Anchor Big 3 1.7 +1.3
Chaser 0 1.0 -1.0
Helper 1 0.7 +0.3
Mobile Big 1 3.0 -2.0
Point Of Attack 3 2.7 +0.3
Wing Stopper 6 5.0 +1.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: Archetypes Denver is MISSING that Winners Have
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive archetypes (0 on Denver, >= 1.0 avg on Top-3):
- Interior Playmaker (Top-3 avg: 1.0 per team)
- Movement Shooter (Top-3 avg: 1.0 per team)
- Stationary Shooter (Top-3 avg: 1.7 per team)
- Versatile Big (Top-3 avg: 1.0 per team)
Defensive archetypes (0 on Denver, >= 1.0 avg on Top-3):
- Chaser (Top-3 avg: 1.0 per team)
Under-represented archetypes (Denver count < Top-3 avg by >= 1.5):
Off: Stationary Shooter Denver=0, Top3 avg=1.7
Def: Mobile Big Denver=1, Top3 avg=3.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: Key Takeaways
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Archetypes positively correlated with winning:
+ Off: Shot Creator r=+0.333
+ Off: Stationary Shooter r=+0.318
+ Off: Movement Shooter r=+0.292
+ Off: Interior Playmaker r=+0.277
Archetypes negatively correlated with winning:
- Def: Anchor Big r=-0.226
- Off: Post Bully r=-0.330
- Off: Secondary Creator r=-0.386
Proficiencies most correlated with winning:
pace_and_space r=+0.387 Denver=8.8 Top3=18.0
grit_and_grind r=+0.236 Denver=5.6 Top3=3.1
morey_ball r=+0.230 Denver=12.5 Top3=14.0
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\05_archetype_system.txt
06
Player Valuation
================================================================================
06 - PLAYER VALUATION & TRADE TARGET IDENTIFICATION
================================================================================
League: 36 teams, 516 total players, 379 with 20+ games
Top-5 by win%: Seattle Thunder, Chicago Jailbirds, Kansas City Knights, Cincinnati Kings, Vancouver Wolves
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: Value-Over-Expected Model (OLS: WS/48 ~ Current Ability)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qualified players (20+ games): n = 379
Regression: WS/48 = 0.0305 * CA + (-0.0032)
R = 0.399, R-squared = 0.159
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: Top 25 Overperformers (all 273 players, by residual)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Player Team CA WS/48 Exp Resid G
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Julian Preuß Pittsburgh Vipers 2.5 0.401 0.073 +0.328 1
2 Zafer Aynaoglu Cleveland Giants 3.0 0.361 0.088 +0.273 1
3 Jarion Swerlein Cincinnati Kings 3.0 0.264 0.088 +0.176 3
4 Stephon Carlton Cincinnati Kings 4.0 0.257 0.119 +0.138 82
5 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons 4.5 0.263 0.134 +0.129 58
6 Emanuel Autry Philadelphia Warriors 3.5 0.230 0.104 +0.126 74
7 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants 2.5 0.198 0.073 +0.125 82
8 Akani Adekoya Kansas City Knights 3.0 0.213 0.088 +0.125 76
9 Brayden Burgess Los Angeles Fireballs 3.0 0.208 0.088 +0.120 32
10 Marquill Edmunds Denver Dragons 2.5 0.192 0.073 +0.119 27
11 Jonathan Lokru Chicago Jailbirds 3.0 0.206 0.088 +0.118 7
12 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 3.0 0.204 0.088 +0.116 82
13 Desmond NGanga Seattle Thunder 3.0 0.203 0.088 +0.115 75
14 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings 3.5 0.215 0.104 +0.111 82
15 Aleksei Zarva Las Vegas Scorpions 3.0 0.195 0.088 +0.107 3
16 Dominykas Gečas Houston Lightning 3.0 0.193 0.088 +0.105 3
17 Stefano Severini Salt Lake City Saints 3.0 0.193 0.088 +0.105 24
18 Trip Kreisberg Las Vegas Scorpions 2.0 0.161 0.058 +0.103 82
19 Evann Fagan Philadelphia Warriors 2.5 0.176 0.073 +0.103 13
20 Rosario Silvestro Cincinnati Kings 3.0 0.188 0.088 +0.100 55
21 Chris Middlebrooks Cincinnati Kings 3.5 0.203 0.104 +0.099 60
22 Gage Woodward Chicago Jailbirds 3.5 0.202 0.104 +0.098 74
23 Reid Frahm Cincinnati Kings 3.0 0.185 0.088 +0.097 82
24 Lukas Lanmuller Boston Crusaders 4.0 0.215 0.119 +0.096 72
25 Jacob Nazarian Cincinnati Kings 3.5 0.197 0.104 +0.093 76
Bottom 15 Underperformers:
Rank Player Team CA WS/48 Exp Resid G
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
502 Quantez Franklin Indiana Stonecutters 3.5 -0.018 0.104 -0.122 72
503 Tiago Fernandes Nashville Stars 4.0 -0.004 0.119 -0.123 66
504 Sasha Ravnic New York Renegades 4.0 -0.008 0.119 -0.127 40
505 Duran Hamdy Detroit Mustangs 2.5 -0.054 0.073 -0.127 2
506 Kepa Lagares San Diego Calaveras 3.5 -0.030 0.104 -0.134 28
507 Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 3.0 -0.048 0.088 -0.136 75
508 Laurynas Linartas Atlanta Devils 3.5 -0.048 0.104 -0.152 33
509 Tyrique Beaudean Denver Dragons 3.0 -0.066 0.088 -0.154 26
510 Kahale North Miami Cyclones 2.5 -0.082 0.073 -0.155 5
511 Trey Barrington Oakland Tritons 2.0 -0.119 0.058 -0.177 9
512 Reetu Minkenen Las Vegas Scorpions 2.5 -0.107 0.073 -0.180 1
513 Pierre Moraschini Philadelphia Warriors 2.0 -0.131 0.058 -0.189 15
514 Dylan Shenton New Orleans Hurricanes 2.5 -0.122 0.073 -0.195 12
515 Rocket Moor Seattle Thunder 2.0 -0.200 0.058 -0.258 11
516 Dalton Dumas New Orleans Hurricanes 3.0 -0.391 0.088 -0.479 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: Trade Target Identification
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Criteria: NOT on top-5 teams, age 25-33, positive residual,
fills Denver gaps (high spacing OR 3PT shooting OR playmaking)
Player Team Age CA PA Resid Spac 3PT Plmk Score
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Paolo Belli Charlotte Drones 30 3.5 3.5 +0.017 19 18 19 56
Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 4.5 +0.068 18 19 19 56
Solomon McIlvaine Indiana Stonecutters 30 3.5 3.5 +0.036 18 19 18 55
Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs 26 3.0 3.0 +0.061 18 19 18 55
Jamaria Flagg Dallas Predators 28 4.0 4.0 +0.037 18 18 18 54
Jarrett Sutherland Toronto Huskies 25 3.5 5.0 +0.056 17 19 18 54
Jonny Caruthers New Orleans Hurricanes 30 4.0 4.0 +0.062 18 19 17 54
Karim Zouita Boston Crusaders 26 3.5 5.0 +0.037 18 17 18 53
Abdoulaye Planincic San Diego Calaveras 30 3.0 3.0 +0.031 18 18 17 53
Nyika Nnamoko Minneapolis Blizzards 29 3.5 3.5 +0.058 19 18 16 53
Devante Parker Jr Austin Rockets 29 3.5 3.5 +0.039 16 18 18 52
Darius Stephenson Las Vegas Scorpions 31 3.5 4.5 +0.000 16 18 18 52
Cardez Moss Austin Rockets 29 4.0 4.0 +0.006 16 18 17 51
Lincoln Rutherford St Louis Skyhawks 30 3.5 4.0 +0.010 16 18 17 51
Josh Vickery Detroit Mustangs 32 3.5 3.5 +0.063 15 18 18 51
Scoochie Hope Atlanta Devils 27 3.5 3.5 +0.000 19 18 14 51
Keyon McCoy Houston Lightning 26 3.5 3.5 +0.012 14 18 18 50
Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants 28 4.0 4.5 +0.045 17 19 14 50
Devin Emery Oakland Tritons 29 3.5 3.5 +0.005 16 18 16 50
Terrance Brown New York Renegades 28 3.5 3.5 +0.021 16 17 17 50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: Denver Dragons Asset Valuation
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Player CA PA WS/48 Expected Residual MPG Verdict
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marquill Edmunds 2.5 2.5 0.192 0.073 +0.119 4.1 OVERPERFORMER
Devaugntah Litton 2.5 2.5 0.156 0.073 +0.083 6.5 OVERPERFORMER
LaMarcus Quinn 3.0 3.5 0.118 0.088 +0.030 30.7 OVERPERFORMER
Kaimyn Fry 3.5 3.5 0.121 0.104 +0.017 31.2 As expected
Brandon Leslie 4.0 4.0 0.119 0.119 +0.000 17.3 As expected
Robert Alcegaire 3.5 3.5 0.095 0.104 -0.009 11.3 As expected
Garrick Jurkin 3.5 5.0 0.084 0.104 -0.020 31.5 As expected
Domonkos Biro 3.5 3.5 0.067 0.104 -0.037 25.8 UNDERPERFORMER
Hudson Leonard 4.0 4.0 0.081 0.119 -0.038 13.6 UNDERPERFORMER
Zach Camara 3.5 3.5 0.051 0.104 -0.053 16.6 UNDERPERFORMER
Pedro Santos 4.0 4.5 0.047 0.119 -0.072 29.7 UNDERPERFORMER
Tyrae Lewis 2.5 5.0 -0.015 0.073 -0.088 30.7 UNDERPERFORMER
Kel Pendergast 4.0 4.0 0.025 0.119 -0.094 16.7 UNDERPERFORMER
Tyrique Beaudean 3.0 3.5 -0.066 0.088 -0.154 3.7 UNDERPERFORMER
Denver overperformers (trade value): 3
+ Marquill Edmunds (residual=+0.119)
+ Devaugntah Litton (residual=+0.083)
+ LaMarcus Quinn (residual=+0.030)
Denver underperformers: 7
- Domonkos Biro (residual=-0.037)
- Hudson Leonard (residual=-0.038)
- Zach Camara (residual=-0.053)
- Pedro Santos (residual=-0.072)
- Tyrae Lewis (residual=-0.088)
- Kel Pendergast (residual=-0.094)
- Tyrique Beaudean (residual=-0.154)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: Age-Ability Curve
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age Mean CA N Players Std
-----------------------------------
18 2.17 3 0.29
19 2.40 5 0.96
20 2.67 59 0.56
21 2.79 40 0.69
22 2.84 29 0.75
23 3.02 62 0.66
24 3.44 55 0.64
25 3.45 32 0.46
26 3.50 27 0.55
27 3.63 23 0.43
28 3.69 35 0.57
29 3.70 40 0.50
30 3.61 46 0.35
31 3.68 11 0.46
32 3.33 18 0.51
33 3.11 18 0.50
34 3.25 4 0.65
35 2.21 7 0.64
36 1.25 2 1.06
Peak age for current_ability: 29 (mean CA = 3.70, n = 40)
Denver age profile:
Tyrae Lewis age=20 CA=2.5
LaMarcus Quinn age=21 CA=3.0
Kaimyn Fry age=22 CA=3.5
Pedro Santos age=22 CA=4.0
Devaugntah Litton age=22 CA=2.5
Domonkos Biro age=23 CA=3.5
Tyrique Beaudean age=24 CA=3.0
Kel Pendergast age=24 CA=4.0
Robert Alcegaire age=28 CA=3.5
Hudson Leonard age=28 CA=4.0
Brandon Leslie age=29 CA=4.0
Zach Camara age=30 CA=3.5
Garrick Jurkin age=30 CA=3.5
Marquill Edmunds age=32 CA=2.5
Average age: 25.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: Key Takeaways
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Value model: WS/48 = 0.0305 * CA + (-0.0032), R-sq = 0.159
Peak development age: 29 (mean CA = 3.70)
Denver avg age: 25.4
Top trade targets (gap-filling, overperforming, age 25-33):
Paolo Belli (Charlotte Drones) CA=3.5 resid=+0.017 gap_score=56
Marco De Luca (Oklahoma City Barons) CA=4.0 resid=+0.068 gap_score=56
Solomon McIlvaine (Indiana Stonecutters) CA=3.5 resid=+0.036 gap_score=55
Tawaski Casuga (Detroit Mustangs) CA=3.0 resid=+0.061 gap_score=55
Jamaria Flagg (Dallas Predators) CA=4.0 resid=+0.037 gap_score=54
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\06_player_valuation.txt
07
Executive Summary
################################################################################
# DENVER DRAGONS -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY #
# Season 2049 End-of-Year Analytics Report #
################################################################################
================================================================================
1. SITUATION ASSESSMENT
================================================================================
Record: 29-53 (0.354)
Standing: 36 of 36 teams
Point Differential: -4.8 ppg
Scoring: 108.0 scored / 112.8 allowed per game
Home Record: 22-19
Away Record: 7-34
Roster Size: 12 players
Top Scorer: Pedro Santos (16.7 ppg)
Avg Current Ability:3.96 (league avg: 3.89)
Avg Potential: 3.67
Average Age: 24.1
Draft Pick: #10 overall
Context: Denver is in a rebuilding phase with significant young talent but
lacks the depth and specific skill profiles needed to compete with the
league's elite. The gap vs the Top-3 (Rockets, Scorpions, Skyhawks) is substantial.
================================================================================
2. KEY STATISTICAL FINDINGS
================================================================================
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2a. Top 5 Attributes Most Correlated with Winning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. playmaking / Playmaking r=+0.242 Denver=9.8 Top3=12.0 Gap=-2.3 Rank=33/36
2. creation / Foul Drawing r=+0.226 Denver=12.4 Top3=14.7 Gap=-2.3 Rank=35/36
3. playmaking / Passing r=+0.187 Denver=11.2 Top3=13.2 Gap=-2.0 Rank=35/36
4. creation / Self-Creation r=+0.175 Denver=13.6 Top3=14.3 Gap=-0.7 Rank=25/36
5. shooting / Free Throws r=+0.159 Denver=13.9 Top3=14.9 Gap=-1.0 Rank=27/36
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2b. Denver's 5 Biggest Rating Gaps vs Top-3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. creation / Foul Drawing gap=-2.32 Denver=12.4 Top3=14.7 Rank=35/36
2. playmaking / Playmaking gap=-2.28 Denver=9.8 Top3=12.0 Rank=33/36
3. playmaking / Passing gap=-1.96 Denver=11.2 Top3=13.2 Rank=35/36
4. shooting / Mid-Range Shooting gap=-1.45 Denver=11.1 Top3=12.5 Rank=32/36
5. creation / Ball Dominance gap=-1.40 Denver=12.1 Top3=13.5 Rank=26/36
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2c. Priority Gaps (Win-Correlated AND Large Deficit)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No ratings found with r >= 0.30 AND gap < -0.50.
Largest correlated gaps (r >= 0.20 AND gap < -0.3):
>>> creation / Foul Drawing r(win%)=+0.226 gap=-2.32 rank=35/36
>>> playmaking / Playmaking r(win%)=+0.242 gap=-2.28 rank=33/36
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2d. Spacing Analysis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver avg spacing rating: 10.83 (rank 16/36)
Top-3 avg spacing rating: 11.76
Gap: -0.93
Spacing has been identified as a key hypothesis for Denver's struggles.
Players with lowest spacing on Denver's roster:
Jimmy McGhie spacing=2 MPG=nan
Kaimyn Fry spacing=2 MPG=31.2
Robert Alcegaire spacing=3 MPG=11.3
Devaugntah Litton spacing=7 MPG=6.5
Hudson Leonard spacing=9 MPG=13.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2e. Value Model Summary
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model: WS/48 = 0.0291 * Current Ability + (-0.0218)
R-squared: 0.155 (n = 321 qualified players)
Peak development age: 28 (mean Current Ability = 4.60)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2f. Proficiency System Insights
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
triangle r(win%)=+0.268 Denver=0.7 Top3=6.1
seven_seconds r(win%)=+0.228 Denver=1.9 Top3=3.5
post_centric r(win%)=+0.122 Denver=1.7 Top3=2.9
================================================================================
3. SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS (PRIORITIZED)
================================================================================
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3a. Priority 1 -- Address Spacing & Shooting Gaps
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RATIONALE: Spacing and shooting ratings are among the strongest
predictors of team success. Denver's spacing/shooting profile is
well below the Top-3 average and contributes directly to offensive
inefficiency.
ACTIONS:
- Target players with elite spacing (15+) and 3PT shooting (15+)
in trades or free agency.
- Top external trade targets (overperforming, gap-filling, age 25-33):
Gage Woodward (Chicago Jailbirds) age=26 Current Ability=4.5 spacing=19 3PT=18 resid=+0.093
Andre Griffin (Kansas City Knights) age=28 Current Ability=5.0 spacing=19 3PT=18 resid=+0.028
Solomon McIlvaine (Indiana Stonecutters) age=30 Current Ability=4.5 spacing=19 3PT=19 resid=+0.031
Marco De Luca (Oklahoma City Barons) age=32 Current Ability=4.5 spacing=17 3PT=20 resid=+0.078
Jarrett Sutherland (Toronto Huskies) age=25 Current Ability=4.5 spacing=17 3PT=19 resid=+0.051
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3b. Priority 2 -- Roster Moves & Asset Management
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver players OVERPERFORMING (trade value -- could yield returns):
+ Devaugntah Litton Current Ability=3.0 residual=+0.091
+ LaMarcus Quinn Current Ability=3.5 residual=+0.038
+ Kaimyn Fry Current Ability=4.0 residual=+0.027
Denver players UNDERPERFORMING (consider replacing or developing):
- Garrick Jurkin Current Ability=5.0 residual=-0.040
- Hudson Leonard Current Ability=5.0 residual=-0.043
- Pedro Santos Current Ability=5.0 residual=-0.077
- Kel Pendergast Current Ability=4.5 residual=-0.084
- Tyrae Lewis Current Ability=3.5 residual=-0.095
- Tyrique Beaudean Current Ability=3.5 residual=-0.146
NOTE: Overperformers who are NOT part of the long-term core could
be traded for draft capital or younger prospects from contenders.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3c. Priority 3 -- Draft Strategy (#10 Pick)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With the #10 overall pick, Denver should prioritize:
1. Spacing-capable wings or guards (high Spacing + 3PT ratings)
2. Players with high potential (Peak Ability >= 4.5) even if Current Ability is lower
3. Archetype fit: target archetypes Denver is missing or under-representing
Missing/under-represented archetypes on Denver that winners have:
Off: Shot Creator (Top-3 avg 1.7 per team, Denver has 0)
Def: Chaser (Top-3 avg 1.3 per team, Denver has 0)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3d. Priority 4 -- System Alignment
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The proficiency system analysis suggests the following system fits
correlate most with winning:
triangle r=+0.268 Denver=0.7 vs Top3=6.1 gap=-5.4
seven_seconds r=+0.228 Denver=1.9 vs Top3=3.5 gap=-1.6
post_centric r=+0.122 Denver=1.7 vs Top3=2.9 gap=-1.2
RECOMMENDATION: Evaluate whether Denver's coaching system aligns with
the proficiency profiles that correlate with winning. Recruit players
who score highly in the top-correlated proficiency categories.
08
Epm
==============================================================================================================
JBL ON-COURT IMPACT -- 2049 Season
==============================================================================================================
MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
--------------------------------------------------
Training set: 353 players (500+ min)
Prediction set: 435 players
Best Ridge alpha: 50.0
CV R-squared: 0.213
Features: 21
Blend midpoint: 1500 min
Box Prior -- Top 10 Feature Weights:
TS% : +0.775
3PAr : +0.728
AST% : +0.377
DRB% : +0.272
FTr : -0.240
TOV/36 : -0.229
PF/36 : +0.225
TOV% : -0.202
USG% : +0.191
AST/36 : +0.191
LEAGUE ON-COURT IMPACT RANKINGS -- Top 50 (200+ min)
==============================================================================================================
Rk Player Team Pos GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI RAPM BSI Wt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Cole Kopelani Mexico City Jaguars C 41 51.6 +7.46 +4.92 +2.54 +8.2 +1.8 0.86
2 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds C 82 33.5 +7.07 +4.91 +2.25 +7.2 +7.4 0.98
3 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons C 58 33.1 +6.19 +3.37 +2.90 +6.8 +9.1 0.78
4 Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds PG 77 32.8 +6.18 +2.34 +3.84 +6.4 +4.3 0.96
5 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights C 81 29.4 +5.67 +2.82 +2.84 +5.9 +4.4 0.93
6 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants PG 81 34.4 +5.50 -0.18 +5.59 +5.6 +1.7 0.98
7 Daniel Cazorla Phoenix Vultures PG 81 22.3 +5.07 +3.27 +1.80 +6.4 +0.1 0.71
8 Cedric Rodgers Los Angeles Fireballs SF 57 46.8 +4.77 +0.69 +3.98 +4.9 +5.0 0.97
9 Sylvain Garcia Seattle Thunder PF 81 25.3 +4.66 +0.56 +4.10 +5.5 +3.4 0.84
10 JB Winn Minneapolis Blizzards C 82 26.2 +4.50 +3.01 +1.50 +5.0 -0.5 0.87
11 Waylan Loftin Dallas Predators C 82 28.0 +4.15 +3.66 +0.48 +4.4 -0.5 0.92
12 Demitrius Burns Portland Lumberjacks C 79 29.8 +4.13 +1.01 +3.11 +4.4 +1.9 0.93
13 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings C 82 31.0 +4.12 +1.98 +2.14 +4.2 +7.9 0.96
14 Evan Lieberman Oklahoma City Barons PF 78 31.4 +3.98 +2.45 +1.53 +4.1 +4.2 0.95
15 Jorge Tomás New York Renegades C 50 4.2 +3.96 +3.19 +0.77 +2.4 +3.4 0.02
16 Damir Markovic Louisville Colonels C 82 13.2 +3.93 +3.41 +0.51 +2.9 -0.5 0.22
17 Khadim Flowers New York Renegades PF 61 32.7 +3.90 +1.41 +2.49 +4.5 +3.2 0.81
18 Austin Ross Baltimore Bullets PF 80 31.6 +3.88 +2.12 +1.85 +4.0 +4.1 0.96
19 Makyi Olanrewaju Seattle Thunder PG 74 35.7 +3.81 +0.39 +3.42 +3.9 +6.7 0.97
20 Lorenzo Wade Seattle Thunder C 80 24.5 +3.79 +2.05 +1.66 +4.6 +1.1 0.80
21 Xavier Lowe Philadelphia Warriors PG 82 30.0 +3.74 +4.13 -0.39 +3.9 +3.0 0.95
22 Dutch Ruise Jr Los Angeles Fireballs C 33 8.1 +3.67 +3.43 +0.25 +1.0 +1.6 0.02
23 Jimmy Cougar III Cincinnati Kings PF 79 27.8 +3.66 +1.41 +2.16 +3.9 +4.8 0.89
24 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves PG 82 33.3 +3.64 +2.07 +1.57 +3.7 +6.1 0.98
25 Adonis Walters Mexico City Jaguars PF 56 32.1 +3.57 +2.57 +1.00 +4.9 +0.8 0.71
26 Sergio Ortuño Vancouver Wolves C 82 32.4 +3.57 +2.37 +1.20 +3.6 +5.1 0.97
27 Drake Walter Vancouver Wolves PF 81 32.5 +3.56 +1.03 +2.53 +3.7 +5.3 0.97
28 Lazar Dragovic Kansas City Knights C 73 12.5 +3.54 +3.24 +0.29 +3.1 +7.0 0.15
29 Kylan Cassier Portland Lumberjacks PF 82 31.8 +3.52 +2.25 +1.27 +3.6 +3.2 0.96
30 Leon Hawthorne Oklahoma City Barons PF 40 61.7 +3.48 +1.95 +1.53 +3.6 +2.8 0.95
31 Derrick Lynch Seattle Thunder SF 81 37.6 +3.48 +0.99 +2.48 +3.5 +4.8 0.99
32 Mario Moore Baltimore Bullets PG 82 28.2 +3.24 +1.74 +1.51 +3.4 +3.4 0.92
33 Rahsool Kellar Dallas Predators PF 82 30.8 +3.24 +0.27 +2.97 +3.4 +0.3 0.96
34 Tommy Mock Cincinnati Kings C 79 25.8 +3.21 +3.94 -0.65 +3.5 +2.5 0.83
35 Quinn Alston Salt Lake City Saints PF 40 56.7 +3.15 +2.97 +0.17 +3.3 +3.3 0.91
36 Dimitris Makryonitis Austin Rockets PF 79 19.7 +3.13 +4.08 -0.95 +3.8 +3.6 0.54
37 Caius Thompson New Orleans Hurricanes C 80 33.0 +3.12 +0.79 +2.33 +3.2 +2.3 0.97
38 Houston Chong-Qui Salt Lake City Saints PF 67 7.5 +3.10 +2.64 +0.45 +3.9 +0.2 0.05
39 Nyika Nnamoko Minneapolis Blizzards PG 82 27.7 +3.09 +1.77 +1.32 +3.2 +2.6 0.91
40 Ish Hampton Dallas Predators PG 77 16.3 +3.06 +2.05 +1.02 +4.4 -1.2 0.32
41 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons PF 80 31.3 +3.04 +1.40 +1.64 +3.1 +5.0 0.95
42 Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons SG 81 31.8 +3.02 +3.13 -0.20 +3.1 +1.7 0.96
43 Joseph Swan Salt Lake City Saints PG 24 10.5 +3.01 +2.25 +0.74 +4.0 +3.6 0.02
44 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants SG 75 28.6 +2.94 +2.69 +0.25 +3.1 +4.9 0.87
45 Emeka Nyambi Pittsburgh Vipers C 78 30.3 +2.90 +1.38 +1.52 +3.1 +0.5 0.93
46 Jonny Caruthers Kansas City Knights PG 71 12.2 +2.86 +1.90 +0.96 +6.8 +3.6 0.13
47 Reid Frahm Cincinnati Kings SG 82 15.9 +2.82 +2.77 +0.09 +4.8 +3.3 0.35
48 Desmond NGanga Seattle Thunder PG 75 14.4 +2.75 +2.58 +0.21 +1.6 +0.6 0.22
49 Prince Davis Cincinnati Kings C 61 5.3 +2.74 +2.93 -0.18 +3.4 +5.2 0.03
50 Mandela Osayande Mexico City Jaguars PG 82 33.4 +2.73 +2.63 +0.20 +2.8 +0.7 0.98
DENVER DRAGONS -- On-Court Impact Roster Breakdown
==============================================================================================================
Rk Player Pos GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI RAPM BSI CA Wt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
71 Pedro Santos PF 82 29.7 +2.28 -0.28 +2.56 +2.4 +1.2 5.0 0.94
148 Devaugntah Litton C 31 6.5 +1.06 +1.71 -0.64 +1.1 +0.2 3.0 0.02
218 Hudson Leonard SF 49 13.6 +0.07 +0.72 -0.66 +1.6 -0.3 5.0 0.08
222 Garrick Jurkin PF 82 31.5 -0.03 +0.63 -0.66 -0.1 +2.3 5.0 0.96
223 Robert Alcegaire C 54 11.3 -0.04 +0.14 -0.18 -3.5 -3.8 4.5 0.06
229 John Ford PF 31 5.5 -0.07 +0.16 -0.22 -1.2 -1.2 4.0 0.02
254 Kel Pendergast SF 54 16.7 -0.37 -0.12 -0.26 +0.7 -2.3 4.5 0.14
333 Tyrique Beaudean PG 26 3.7 -1.63 -2.12 +0.48 -0.3 -6.0 3.5 0.01
335 LaMarcus Quinn PG 82 30.7 -1.68 -1.41 -0.27 -1.8 +0.2 3.5 0.95
345 Kaimyn Fry C 77 31.2 -1.78 -0.68 -1.10 -1.9 -3.0 4.0 0.94
409 Tyrae Lewis PG 78 30.7 -3.68 -4.12 +0.44 -3.8 -3.4 3.5 0.94
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEAM TOTAL -5.87
METRIC CORRELATIONS (500+ min players)
============================================================
On-Court Impact vs RAPM : r = +0.915
On-Court Impact vs Box Score Impact: r = +0.557
On-Court Impact vs Win Shares per 48 Min: r = +0.529
On-Court Impact vs Value Over Replacement: r = +0.531
On-Court Impact vs Player Efficiency Rating: r = +0.153
RAPM vs Box Score Impact: r = +0.453
RAPM vs Win Shares per 48 Min: r = +0.405
RAPM vs Value Over Replacement: r = +0.438
RAPM vs Player Efficiency Rating: r = +0.099
Box Score Impact vs Win Shares per 48 Min: r = +0.746
Box Score Impact vs Value Over Replacement: r = +0.931
Box Score Impact vs Player Efficiency Rating: r = +0.214
Win Shares per 48 Min vs Value Over Replacement: r = +0.685
Win Shares per 48 Min vs Player Efficiency Rating: r = +0.318
Value Over Replacement vs Player Efficiency Rating: r = +0.288
BIGGEST On-Court Impact vs Box Score Impact DIVERGENCES (500+ min)
====================================================================================================
On-Court Impact higher than Box Score Impact (box score UNDERVALUES these players):
Jarvis Cannon On-Court Impact=+2.37 Box Score Impact=-4.80 diff=+7.17 RAPM= +2.8
Jaxson Booker On-Court Impact=+1.51 Box Score Impact=-4.40 diff=+5.91 RAPM= +1.1
Raul Cardona On-Court Impact=+0.21 Box Score Impact=-5.60 diff=+5.81 RAPM= +2.3
Denis Molodtsov On-Court Impact=-1.14 Box Score Impact=-6.90 diff=+5.76 RAPM= -1.1
Cole Kopelani On-Court Impact=+7.46 Box Score Impact=+1.80 diff=+5.66 RAPM= +8.2
Mathieu Rogers On-Court Impact=+1.15 Box Score Impact=-4.20 diff=+5.35 RAPM= +3.6
Tiago Fernandes On-Court Impact=-1.08 Box Score Impact=-6.30 diff=+5.22 RAPM= -0.6
Thiago Andrade On-Court Impact=-1.40 Box Score Impact=-6.50 diff=+5.10 RAPM= -1.5
JB Winn On-Court Impact=+4.50 Box Score Impact=-0.50 diff=+5.00 RAPM= +5.0
Daniel Cazorla On-Court Impact=+5.07 Box Score Impact=+0.10 diff=+4.97 RAPM= +6.4
On-Court Impact lower than Box Score Impact (box score OVERVALUES these players):
Patrik Jurecka On-Court Impact=-4.69 Box Score Impact=+3.10 diff=-7.79 RAPM= -4.8
Stephon Carlton On-Court Impact=+0.61 Box Score Impact=+8.00 diff=-7.39 RAPM= +0.6
Kenan Aleksic On-Court Impact=-4.55 Box Score Impact=+2.60 diff=-7.15 RAPM= -5.3
Gage Woodward On-Court Impact=-1.83 Box Score Impact=+5.10 diff=-6.93 RAPM= -2.2
Evan McGowan On-Court Impact=-7.41 Box Score Impact=-0.50 diff=-6.91 RAPM= -7.8
Horace Hammer On-Court Impact=-4.58 Box Score Impact=+2.20 diff=-6.78 RAPM= -4.9
CJ LaCruz On-Court Impact=-0.38 Box Score Impact=+5.70 diff=-6.08 RAPM= -0.4
Xavier Yates On-Court Impact=-2.46 Box Score Impact=+3.20 diff=-5.66 RAPM= -4.7
Tyree Bruner On-Court Impact=-2.33 Box Score Impact=+3.30 diff=-5.63 RAPM= -2.4
Kelvin Page On-Court Impact=-0.92 Box Score Impact=+4.60 diff=-5.52 RAPM= -1.0
TEAM ON-COURT IMPACT RANKINGS
=====================================================================================
Rk Team Total OCI Avg OCI # W-L Win%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Cincinnati Kings +22.97 +1.91 12 62-40 0.608
2 Seattle Thunder +22.22 +2.22 10 61-46 0.570
3 Kansas City Knights +19.42 +1.77 11 64-39 0.621
4 Chicago Jailbirds +13.78 +1.53 9 66-39 0.629
5 Cleveland Giants +12.84 +1.07 12 63-31 0.670
6 Oklahoma City Barons +12.82 +0.99 13 50-40 0.556
7 Los Angeles Fireballs +11.51 +0.89 13 51-34 0.600
8 Detroit Mustangs +10.65 +0.89 12 50-39 0.562
9 Vancouver Wolves +10.50 +1.50 7 55-41 0.573
10 Las Vegas Scorpions +9.94 +0.83 12 65-31 0.677
11 Portland Lumberjacks +7.25 +0.73 10 56-33 0.629
12 Baltimore Bullets +7.18 +0.65 11 49-40 0.551
13 Boston Crusaders +6.73 +0.56 12 52-37 0.584
14 Mexico City Jaguars +6.01 +0.67 9 46-37 0.554
15 Louisville Colonels +5.47 +0.55 10 57-40 0.588
16 Minneapolis Blizzards +5.30 +0.44 12 55-35 0.611
17 New York Renegades +4.52 +0.50 9 50-33 0.602
18 Dallas Predators +4.10 +0.46 9 51-32 0.614
19 Salt Lake City Saints +3.52 +0.29 12 51-32 0.614
20 New Orleans Hurricanes +2.98 +0.21 14 42-42 0.500
21 Austin Rockets +1.93 +0.19 10 62-28 0.689
22 Philadelphia Warriors +1.51 +0.15 10 50-40 0.556
23 Miami Cyclones +0.37 +0.04 10 53-30 0.639
24 Phoenix Vultures -2.86 -0.24 12 50-33 0.602
25 Charlotte Drones -2.98 -0.30 10 50-35 0.588
26 Denver Dragons -4.17 -0.46 9 29-53 0.354
27 St Louis Skyhawks -5.34 -0.53 10 56-27 0.675
28 Oakland Tritons -6.27 -0.70 9 48-35 0.578
29 Toronto Huskies -9.69 -0.88 11 52-31 0.627
30 Atlanta Devils -10.83 -0.90 12 54-29 0.651
31 Houston Lightning -10.92 -0.91 12 54-29 0.651
32 Washington Pilots -12.08 -0.93 13 51-32 0.614
33 Pittsburgh Vipers -12.38 -1.24 10 41-42 0.494
34 Indiana Stonecutters -14.59 -1.46 10 49-34 0.590
35 San Diego Calaveras -15.54 -1.55 10 51-32 0.614
36 Nashville Stars -16.67 -1.28 13 54-29 0.651
Team On-Court Impact vs Win% correlation: r = 0.002
TOP 15 PGS BY ON-COURT IMPACT (500+ min)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI
1 Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds 77 32.8 +6.18 +2.34 +3.84
2 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants 81 34.4 +5.50 -0.18 +5.59
3 Daniel Cazorla Phoenix Vultures 81 22.3 +5.07 +3.27 +1.80
4 Makyi Olanrewaju Seattle Thunder 74 35.7 +3.81 +0.39 +3.42
5 Xavier Lowe Philadelphia Warriors 82 30.0 +3.74 +4.13 -0.39
6 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves 82 33.3 +3.64 +2.07 +1.57
7 Mario Moore Baltimore Bullets 82 28.2 +3.24 +1.74 +1.51
8 Nyika Nnamoko Minneapolis Blizzards 82 27.7 +3.09 +1.77 +1.32
9 Ish Hampton Dallas Predators 77 16.3 +3.06 +2.05 +1.02
10 Jonny Caruthers Kansas City Knights 71 12.2 +2.86 +1.90 +0.96
11 Desmond NGanga Seattle Thunder 75 14.4 +2.75 +2.58 +0.21
12 Mandela Osayande Mexico City Jaguars 82 33.4 +2.73 +2.63 +0.20
13 Mandela Marsh-Kittrell Baltimore Bullets 76 31.4 +2.68 +2.39 +0.39
14 Akani Adekoya Kansas City Knights 76 15.0 +2.43 +1.40 +1.05
15 Lukas Lanmuller Boston Crusaders 72 33.8 +2.39 +3.00 -0.61
TOP 15 SGS BY ON-COURT IMPACT (500+ min)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI
1 Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 81 31.8 +3.02 +3.13 -0.20
2 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 75 28.6 +2.94 +2.69 +0.25
3 Reid Frahm Cincinnati Kings 82 15.9 +2.82 +2.77 +0.09
4 Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs 77 21.1 +2.25 +0.80 +1.46
5 Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Saints 64 13.8 +1.97 +2.80 -0.83
6 Aidan Clark Las Vegas Scorpions 82 9.0 +0.97 +1.26 -0.32
7 Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 60 30.3 +0.89 -0.40 +1.29
8 Jade Ahelegbe St Louis Skyhawks 74 17.4 +0.70 +0.88 -0.19
9 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants 82 13.9 +0.51 +2.27 -1.76
10 Damjan Nemanič Los Angeles Fireballs 81 21.6 +0.21 -0.07 +0.35
11 Deandre Patterson Detroit Mustangs 56 19.0 -0.21 +0.06 -0.27
12 Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 9 122.7 -0.34 -0.68 +0.31
13 Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars 82 13.4 -0.60 -1.25 +0.66
14 Daevon Nash Oakland Tritons 82 31.7 -0.89 -0.21 -0.68
15 Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones 82 31.1 -1.15 -1.26 +0.21
TOP 15 SFS BY ON-COURT IMPACT (500+ min)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI
1 Cedric Rodgers Los Angeles Fireballs 57 46.8 +4.77 +0.69 +3.98
2 Derrick Lynch Seattle Thunder 81 37.6 +3.48 +0.99 +2.48
3 Zaire Phifer Las Vegas Scorpions 80 33.1 +2.15 +1.47 +0.58
4 Jamaine Curry Jr San Diego Calaveras 46 31.4 +1.97 +1.57 +0.39
5 Andrew Buller Cincinnati Kings 80 17.8 +1.62 +1.52 +0.10
6 Lukáš Vintr Atlanta Devils 5 291.4 +1.50 +0.95 +0.54
7 Chris Middlebrooks Cincinnati Kings 60 9.1 +1.44 +1.88 -0.45
8 Marcus Hayes Minneapolis Blizzards 82 15.9 +1.36 +1.36 -0.01
9 Arif Langston Chicago Jailbirds 82 24.1 +1.16 +0.90 +0.26
10 Briggs Greenaway Austin Rockets 82 34.3 +1.16 +0.28 +0.87
11 Arik Mills Minneapolis Blizzards 75 16.3 +1.15 +1.46 -0.32
12 Quantez Franklin Indiana Stonecutters 72 30.1 +0.90 -0.45 +1.35
13 Mahmoud Abdur-Rahman New Orleans Hurricanes 69 18.1 +0.82 +1.27 -0.45
14 Carsen Christos Oklahoma City Barons 74 22.1 +0.82 +1.29 -0.47
15 Willie Bennett Las Vegas Scorpions 82 23.0 +0.72 +0.91 -0.19
TOP 15 PFS BY ON-COURT IMPACT (500+ min)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI
1 Sylvain Garcia Seattle Thunder 81 25.3 +4.66 +0.56 +4.10
2 Evan Lieberman Oklahoma City Barons 78 31.4 +3.98 +2.45 +1.53
3 Khadim Flowers New York Renegades 61 32.7 +3.90 +1.41 +2.49
4 Austin Ross Baltimore Bullets 80 31.6 +3.88 +2.12 +1.85
5 Jimmy Cougar III Cincinnati Kings 79 27.8 +3.66 +1.41 +2.16
6 Adonis Walters Mexico City Jaguars 56 32.1 +3.57 +2.57 +1.00
7 Drake Walter Vancouver Wolves 81 32.5 +3.56 +1.03 +2.53
8 Kylan Cassier Portland Lumberjacks 82 31.8 +3.52 +2.25 +1.27
9 Leon Hawthorne Oklahoma City Barons 40 61.7 +3.48 +1.95 +1.53
10 Rahsool Kellar Dallas Predators 82 30.8 +3.24 +0.27 +2.97
11 Quinn Alston Salt Lake City Saints 40 56.7 +3.15 +2.97 +0.17
12 Dimitris Makryonitis Austin Rockets 79 19.7 +3.13 +4.08 -0.95
13 Houston Chong-Qui Salt Lake City Saints 67 7.5 +3.10 +2.64 +0.45
14 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons 80 31.3 +3.04 +1.40 +1.64
15 Ishaq Osten Cleveland Giants 79 34.4 +2.71 +0.96 +1.75
TOP 15 CS BY ON-COURT IMPACT (500+ min)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI
1 Cole Kopelani Mexico City Jaguars 41 51.6 +7.46 +4.92 +2.54
2 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 82 33.5 +7.07 +4.91 +2.25
3 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons 58 33.1 +6.19 +3.37 +2.90
4 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights 81 29.4 +5.67 +2.82 +2.84
5 JB Winn Minneapolis Blizzards 82 26.2 +4.50 +3.01 +1.50
6 Waylan Loftin Dallas Predators 82 28.0 +4.15 +3.66 +0.48
7 Demitrius Burns Portland Lumberjacks 79 29.8 +4.13 +1.01 +3.11
8 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings 82 31.0 +4.12 +1.98 +2.14
9 Damir Markovic Louisville Colonels 82 13.2 +3.93 +3.41 +0.51
10 Lorenzo Wade Seattle Thunder 80 24.5 +3.79 +2.05 +1.66
11 Sergio Ortuño Vancouver Wolves 82 32.4 +3.57 +2.37 +1.20
12 Lazar Dragovic Kansas City Knights 73 12.5 +3.54 +3.24 +0.29
13 Tommy Mock Cincinnati Kings 79 25.8 +3.21 +3.94 -0.65
14 Caius Thompson New Orleans Hurricanes 80 33.0 +3.12 +0.79 +2.33
15 Emeka Nyambi Pittsburgh Vipers 78 30.3 +2.90 +1.38 +1.52
09
Ideal Profiles
================================================================================
09 - IDEAL PLAYER PROFILES BY POSITION
================================================================================
Methodology:
- Players filtered by true_position (highest positional_fit), min 20 games
- Win-correlation: Pearson r between rating and team win_pct (per player)
- Top-3 benchmark: Avg ratings of rotation players (15+ MPG) on Austin Rockets, Las Vegas Scorpions, St Louis Skyhawks
- Composite: 50% win-correlation + 50% Top-3 benchmark
- Top 10 skills per position by composite importance
================================================================================
PG PROFILE (86 players league-wide)
================================================================================
Top 10 Most Important Skills for PGs:
# Rating Win r Top3 Avg Lg Avg Composite
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 physical / Athleticism +0.062 16.86 14.51 0.855
2 execution / Post Execution +0.140 5.86 4.62 0.854
3 execution / Basketball IQ +0.148 15.57 14.69 0.832
4 creation / Foul Drawing -0.020 16.43 13.66 0.789
5 physical / Speed +0.110 16.14 15.44 0.769
6 shooting / Inside Shooting +0.100 17.43 16.92 0.738
7 shooting / Mid-Range Shooting +0.113 14.57 14.44 0.721
8 creation / Self-Creation +0.140 16.29 16.69 0.708
9 shooting / Free Throws +0.061 16.57 16.12 0.684
10 defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense +0.122 16.57 17.17 0.666
Ideal PG Target Ratings (Top-3 benchmark for top-10 skills):
Rating Target
--------------------------------------------------
physical / Athleticism 16.9
execution / Post Execution 5.9
execution / Basketball IQ 15.6
creation / Foul Drawing 16.4
physical / Speed 16.1
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.4
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 14.6
creation / Self-Creation 16.3
shooting / Free Throws 16.6
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16.6
Denver PGs vs Ideal (Top-10 skills):
Player MPG CA physical / A execution / execution / creation / F physical / S shooting / I shooting / M creation / S shooting / F defense / On
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** IDEAL (Top-3) ** 16.9 5.9 15.6 16.4 16.1 17.4 14.6 16.3 16.6 16.6
LaMarcus Quinn 30.7 3.5 13.0- 3.0- 16.0 15.0 15.0 14.0- 10.0- 15.0 13.0- 13.0-
Tyrae Lewis 30.7 3.5 17.0 2.0- 13.0- 9.0- 10.0- 15.0- 14.0 12.0- 16.0 15.0-
Denver PG Gaps vs Ideal (sorted by deficit):
Rating Denver Ideal Gap Win r
----------------------------------------------------------------------
creation / Foul Drawing 12.00 16.43 -4.43 -0.020
physical / Speed 12.50 16.14 -3.64 +0.110
execution / Post Execution 2.50 5.86 -3.36 +0.140
shooting / Inside Shooting 14.50 17.43 -2.93 +0.100
creation / Self-Creation 13.50 16.29 -2.79 +0.140
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14.00 16.57 -2.57 +0.122
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 12.00 14.57 -2.57 +0.113
shooting / Free Throws 14.50 16.57 -2.07 +0.061
physical / Athleticism 15.00 16.86 -1.86 +0.062
execution / Basketball IQ 14.50 15.57 -1.07 +0.148
*** = gap > 1.0 AND skill correlated with winning
================================================================================
SG PROFILE (18 players league-wide)
================================================================================
Top 10 Most Important Skills for SGs:
# Rating Win r Top3 Avg Lg Avg Composite
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 defense / Stealing +0.180 19.00 13.39 0.852
2 defense / Help Defense +0.302 17.00 14.22 0.807
3 playmaking / Playmaking +0.040 20.00 13.94 0.804
4 execution / Basketball IQ +0.195 18.00 15.00 0.767
5 shooting / 3PT Shooting +0.356 18.00 17.17 0.763
6 defense / Rim Protection +0.294 6.00 4.72 0.751
7 playmaking / Passing +0.117 19.00 15.61 0.745
8 playmaking / Ball Handling +0.062 20.00 16.06 0.740
9 rebounding / Offensive Rebounding +0.472 7.00 8.44 0.735
10 creation / Foul Drawing +0.150 17.00 15.17 0.705
Ideal SG Target Ratings (Top-3 benchmark for top-10 skills):
Rating Target
--------------------------------------------------
defense / Stealing 19.0
defense / Help Defense 17.0
playmaking / Playmaking 20.0
execution / Basketball IQ 18.0
shooting / 3PT Shooting 18.0
defense / Rim Protection 6.0
playmaking / Passing 19.0
playmaking / Ball Handling 20.0
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 7.0
creation / Foul Drawing 17.0
(No Denver SGs with 20+ games)
================================================================================
SF PROFILE (39 players league-wide)
================================================================================
Top 10 Most Important Skills for SFs:
# Rating Win r Top3 Avg Lg Avg Composite
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 playmaking / Spacing +0.268 16.33 14.33 0.902
2 creation / Ball Dominance +0.195 17.00 14.41 0.892
3 playmaking / Passing +0.160 15.67 13.74 0.817
4 defense / Help Defense +0.018 16.33 13.85 0.754
5 creation / Self-Creation +0.096 18.00 16.33 0.751
6 playmaking / Gravity +0.024 17.33 15.56 0.706
7 shooting / Free Throws -0.003 17.67 15.67 0.703
8 creation / Foul Drawing +0.074 15.33 14.18 0.697
9 physical / Athleticism +0.080 15.33 14.49 0.679
10 physical / Quickness +0.012 15.67 14.33 0.665
Ideal SF Target Ratings (Top-3 benchmark for top-10 skills):
Rating Target
--------------------------------------------------
playmaking / Spacing 16.3
creation / Ball Dominance 17.0
playmaking / Passing 15.7
defense / Help Defense 16.3
creation / Self-Creation 18.0
playmaking / Gravity 17.3
shooting / Free Throws 17.7
creation / Foul Drawing 15.3
physical / Athleticism 15.3
physical / Quickness 15.7
Denver SFs vs Ideal (Top-10 skills):
Player MPG CA playmaking / creation / B playmaking / defense / He creation / S playmaking / shooting / F creation / F physical / A physical / Q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** IDEAL (Top-3) ** 16.3 17.0 15.7 16.3 18.0 17.3 17.7 15.3 15.3 15.7
Kel Pendergast 16.7 4.5 19.0+ 11.0- 9.0- 11.0- 19.0 17.0 16.0- 12.0- 13.0- 11.0-
Hudson Leonard 13.6 5.0 9.0- 14.0- 9.0- 15.0 15.0- 15.0- 17.0 16.0 14.0 15.0
Denver SF Gaps vs Ideal (sorted by deficit):
Rating Denver Ideal Gap Win r
----------------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking / Passing 9.00 15.67 -6.67 +0.160 ***
creation / Ball Dominance 12.35 17.00 -4.65 +0.195 ***
defense / Help Defense 12.80 16.33 -3.54 +0.018
physical / Quickness 12.80 15.67 -2.87 +0.012
physical / Athleticism 13.45 15.33 -1.88 +0.080
playmaking / Spacing 14.51 16.33 -1.82 +0.268 ***
creation / Foul Drawing 13.80 15.33 -1.54 +0.074
playmaking / Gravity 16.10 17.33 -1.23 +0.024
shooting / Free Throws 16.45 17.67 -1.22 -0.003
creation / Self-Creation 17.20 18.00 -0.80 +0.096
*** = gap > 1.0 AND skill correlated with winning
================================================================================
PF PROFILE (96 players league-wide)
================================================================================
Top 10 Most Important Skills for PFs:
# Rating Win r Top3 Avg Lg Avg Composite
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 shooting / Mid-Range Shooting +0.065 14.50 12.29 0.841
2 creation / Foul Drawing +0.198 13.67 13.79 0.838
3 shooting / Free Throws +0.103 16.00 15.09 0.797
4 playmaking / Ball Handling +0.050 14.50 13.40 0.748
5 physical / First Step +0.079 12.50 12.21 0.728
6 defense / Off-Ball Defense -0.012 16.67 15.04 0.711
7 playmaking / Playmaking +0.045 13.00 12.61 0.694
8 defense / Stealing -0.118 16.83 14.55 0.632
9 shooting / 3PT Shooting -0.058 16.33 15.17 0.628
10 physical / Speed -0.070 13.17 11.94 0.618
Ideal PF Target Ratings (Top-3 benchmark for top-10 skills):
Rating Target
--------------------------------------------------
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 14.5
creation / Foul Drawing 13.7
shooting / Free Throws 16.0
playmaking / Ball Handling 14.5
physical / First Step 12.5
defense / Off-Ball Defense 16.7
playmaking / Playmaking 13.0
defense / Stealing 16.8
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.3
physical / Speed 13.2
Denver PFs vs Ideal (Top-10 skills):
Player MPG CA shooting / M creation / F shooting / F playmaking / physical / F defense / Of playmaking / defense / St shooting / 3 physical / S
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** IDEAL (Top-3) ** 14.5 13.7 16.0 14.5 12.5 16.7 13.0 16.8 16.3 13.2
Garrick Jurkin 31.5 5.0 9.0- 7.0- 14.0- 7.0- 8.0- 16.0 12.0 16.0 17.0 11.0-
Pedro Santos 29.7 5.0 9.0- 9.0- 11.0- 14.0 13.0 8.0- 4.0- 15.0- 17.0 13.0
Denver PF Gaps vs Ideal (sorted by deficit):
Rating Denver Ideal Gap Win r
----------------------------------------------------------------------
creation / Foul Drawing 7.97 13.67 -5.70 +0.198 ***
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 9.00 14.50 -5.50 +0.065
playmaking / Playmaking 8.12 13.00 -4.88 +0.045
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.12 16.67 -4.55 -0.012
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.40 14.50 -4.10 +0.050
shooting / Free Throws 12.54 16.00 -3.46 +0.103
physical / First Step 10.43 12.50 -2.07 +0.079
defense / Stealing 15.51 16.83 -1.32 -0.118
physical / Speed 11.97 13.17 -1.20 -0.070
shooting / 3PT Shooting 17.00 16.33 +0.67 -0.058
*** = gap > 1.0 AND skill correlated with winning
================================================================================
C PROFILE (111 players league-wide)
================================================================================
Top 10 Most Important Skills for Cs:
# Rating Win r Top3 Avg Lg Avg Composite
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 creation / Self-Creation +0.125 13.10 11.46 0.843
2 playmaking / Ball Handling +0.050 8.70 6.25 0.832
3 playmaking / Passing +0.094 12.00 10.09 0.831
4 creation / Foul Drawing +0.162 16.50 15.49 0.822
5 rebounding / Offensive Rebounding +0.163 16.90 16.03 0.807
6 defense / Off-Ball Defense -0.007 12.20 9.63 0.767
7 playmaking / Playmaking +0.120 8.60 7.57 0.767
8 playmaking / Spacing +0.148 6.90 6.79 0.700
9 execution / Isolation Execution +0.078 11.30 10.79 0.649
10 shooting / Inside Shooting +0.096 17.20 17.08 0.631
Ideal C Target Ratings (Top-3 benchmark for top-10 skills):
Rating Target
--------------------------------------------------
creation / Self-Creation 13.1
playmaking / Ball Handling 8.7
playmaking / Passing 12.0
creation / Foul Drawing 16.5
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 16.9
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.2
playmaking / Playmaking 8.6
playmaking / Spacing 6.9
execution / Isolation Execution 11.3
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.2
Denver Cs vs Ideal (Top-10 skills):
Player MPG CA creation / S playmaking / playmaking / creation / F rebounding / defense / Of playmaking / playmaking / execution / shooting / I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** IDEAL (Top-3) ** 13.1 8.7 12.0 16.5 16.9 12.2 8.6 6.9 11.3 17.2
Kaimyn Fry 31.2 4.0 14.0 6.0- 4.0- 16.0 15.0- 10.0- 2.0- 2.0- 6.0- 16.0
Robert Alcegaire 11.3 4.5 5.0- 3.0- 4.0- 10.0- 13.0- 17.0+ 3.0- 3.0- 14.0+ 15.0-
Denver C Gaps vs Ideal (sorted by deficit):
Rating Denver Ideal Gap Win r
----------------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking / Passing 4.00 12.00 -8.00 +0.094
playmaking / Playmaking 2.27 8.60 -6.33 +0.120
playmaking / Spacing 2.27 6.90 -4.63 +0.148
playmaking / Ball Handling 5.20 8.70 -3.50 +0.050
execution / Isolation Execution 8.13 11.30 -3.17 +0.078
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 14.47 16.90 -2.43 +0.163 ***
creation / Foul Drawing 14.40 16.50 -2.10 +0.162 ***
creation / Self-Creation 11.61 13.10 -1.49 +0.125
shooting / Inside Shooting 15.73 17.20 -1.47 +0.096
defense / Off-Ball Defense 11.86 12.20 -0.34 -0.007
*** = gap > 1.0 AND skill correlated with winning
================================================================================
POSITION ARCHETYPES ON TOP-3 TEAMS
================================================================================
PG archetypes on Top-3 teams (15+ MPG):
Offensive: Shot Creator (3), Primary Ballhandler (2), Secondary Creator (2)
Defensive: Point Of Attack (6), Wing Stopper (1)
SG archetypes on Top-3 teams (15+ MPG):
Offensive: Primary Ballhandler (1)
Defensive: Point Of Attack (1)
SF archetypes on Top-3 teams (15+ MPG):
Offensive: Secondary Creator (3)
Defensive: Wing Stopper (3)
PF archetypes on Top-3 teams (15+ MPG):
Offensive: Glue Guy (2), Secondary Creator (2), Slasher (1), Stationary Shooter (1)
Defensive: Wing Stopper (3), Helper (1), Point Of Attack (1), Chaser (1)
C archetypes on Top-3 teams (15+ MPG):
Offensive: Post Scorer (4), Roll-and-Cut Big (2), Post Bully (2), Versatile Big (1), Interior Playmaker (1)
Defensive: Anchor Big (6), Mobile Big (4)
================================================================================
CROSS-POSITION INSIGHTS
================================================================================
Skills important EVERYWHERE (top-10 composite at all 4 positions):
- creation / Foul Drawing
Skills uniquely important for PGs:
- defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense
- execution / Post Execution
Skills uniquely important for SGs:
- defense / Rim Protection
Skills uniquely important for SFs:
- playmaking / Gravity
- physical / Quickness
- creation / Ball Dominance
Skills uniquely important for PFs:
- physical / First Step
Skills uniquely important for Cs:
- execution / Isolation Execution
================================================================================
DENVER ACTION ITEMS BY POSITION
================================================================================
PG - Target these skills in FA/Draft/Trade:
-> creation / Foul Drawing gap=-4.43 target=16.4 win-r=-0.020
-> physical / Speed gap=-3.64 target=16.1 win-r=+0.110
-> execution / Post Execution gap=-3.36 target=5.9 win-r=+0.140
-> shooting / Inside Shooting gap=-2.93 target=17.4 win-r=+0.100
-> creation / Self-Creation gap=-2.79 target=16.3 win-r=+0.140
-> defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense gap=-2.57 target=16.6 win-r=+0.122
-> shooting / Mid-Range Shooting gap=-2.57 target=14.6 win-r=+0.113
-> shooting / Free Throws gap=-2.07 target=16.6 win-r=+0.061
-> physical / Athleticism gap=-1.86 target=16.9 win-r=+0.062
-> execution / Basketball IQ gap=-1.07 target=15.6 win-r=+0.148
SG: No qualifying players
SF - Target these skills in FA/Draft/Trade:
-> playmaking / Passing gap=-6.67 target=15.7 win-r=+0.160
-> creation / Ball Dominance gap=-4.65 target=17.0 win-r=+0.195
-> defense / Help Defense gap=-3.54 target=16.3 win-r=+0.018
-> physical / Quickness gap=-2.87 target=15.7 win-r=+0.012
-> physical / Athleticism gap=-1.88 target=15.3 win-r=+0.080
-> playmaking / Spacing gap=-1.82 target=16.3 win-r=+0.268
-> creation / Foul Drawing gap=-1.54 target=15.3 win-r=+0.074
-> playmaking / Gravity gap=-1.23 target=17.3 win-r=+0.024
-> shooting / Free Throws gap=-1.22 target=17.7 win-r=-0.003
-> creation / Self-Creation gap=-0.80 target=18.0 win-r=+0.096
PF - Target these skills in FA/Draft/Trade:
-> creation / Foul Drawing gap=-5.70 target=13.7 win-r=+0.198
-> shooting / Mid-Range Shooting gap=-5.50 target=14.5 win-r=+0.065
-> playmaking / Playmaking gap=-4.88 target=13.0 win-r=+0.045
-> defense / Off-Ball Defense gap=-4.55 target=16.7 win-r=-0.012
-> playmaking / Ball Handling gap=-4.10 target=14.5 win-r=+0.050
-> shooting / Free Throws gap=-3.46 target=16.0 win-r=+0.103
-> physical / First Step gap=-2.07 target=12.5 win-r=+0.079
-> defense / Stealing gap=-1.32 target=16.8 win-r=-0.118
-> physical / Speed gap=-1.20 target=13.2 win-r=-0.070
C - Target these skills in FA/Draft/Trade:
-> playmaking / Passing gap=-8.00 target=12.0 win-r=+0.094
-> playmaking / Playmaking gap=-6.33 target=8.6 win-r=+0.120
-> playmaking / Spacing gap=-4.63 target=6.9 win-r=+0.148
-> playmaking / Ball Handling gap=-3.50 target=8.7 win-r=+0.050
-> execution / Isolation Execution gap=-3.17 target=11.3 win-r=+0.078
-> rebounding / Offensive Rebounding gap=-2.43 target=16.9 win-r=+0.163
-> creation / Foul Drawing gap=-2.10 target=16.5 win-r=+0.162
-> creation / Self-Creation gap=-1.49 target=13.1 win-r=+0.125
-> shooting / Inside Shooting gap=-1.47 target=17.2 win-r=+0.096
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\09_ideal_profiles.txt
10
Trade Watchlist
====================================================================================================
10 - TRADE TARGET WATCHLIST
====================================================================================================
Methodology:
- Gap analysis: Denver's minutes-weighted averages vs Top-3 benchmarks by position
- Top-3 teams: Austin Rockets, Las Vegas Scorpions, St Louis Skyhawks
- Team classification: Seller (<40%), Neutral, Contender (>60%)
- Trade candidates: non-Denver, 10+ games, CA >= 2.0, with availability reason
- Composite score: Gap-Fill 40% + Ability 25% + Contract 20% + Upside 15%
Denver Cap Situation:
- Total roster salary: $134,500,000
- Cap with holds: ~$142.75M (target: under $135M)
- Above hard trading limit
Denver's Top Gap Priorities by Position:
PG: creation / Foul Drawing (-4.20), execution / Post Execution (-3.44), creation / Ball Dominance (-3.30), shooting / Inside Shooting (-2.79), creation / Self-Creation (-2.59)
SG: playmaking / Playmaking (-20.00), playmaking / Ball Handling (-20.00), defense / Stealing (-19.00), playmaking / Spacing (-19.00), shooting / 3PT Shooting (-18.00)
SF: playmaking / Passing (-6.67), creation / Ball Dominance (-4.65), defense / Help Defense (-3.54), physical / Quickness (-2.87), physical / Athleticism (-1.88)
PF: creation / Foul Drawing (-5.69), playmaking / Playmaking (-5.14), defense / Off-Ball Defense (-4.97), shooting / Mid-Range Shooting (-4.76), playmaking / Ball Handling (-4.55)
C: playmaking / Passing (-7.07), playmaking / Playmaking (-6.37), playmaking / Spacing (-4.01), playmaking / Ball Handling (-3.66), execution / Isolation Execution (-3.19)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 1: TEAM LANDSCAPE
====================================================================================================
Team W L Win% Class Avg CA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Austin Rockets 62 28 0.689 Contender 3.81
Las Vegas Scorpions 65 31 0.677 Contender 4.23
St Louis Skyhawks 56 27 0.675 Contender 3.60
Cleveland Giants 63 31 0.670 Contender 3.93
Nashville Stars 54 29 0.651 Contender 3.53
Atlanta Devils 54 29 0.651 Contender 3.82
Houston Lightning 54 29 0.651 Contender 3.67
Miami Cyclones 53 30 0.639 Contender 3.97
Portland Lumberjacks 56 33 0.629 Contender 4.03
Chicago Jailbirds 66 39 0.629 Contender 4.00
Toronto Huskies 52 31 0.627 Contender 3.26
Kansas City Knights 64 39 0.621 Contender 4.18
Dallas Predators 51 32 0.614 Contender 3.86
Washington Pilots 51 32 0.614 Contender 4.00
San Diego Calaveras 51 32 0.614 Contender 3.47
Salt Lake City Saints 51 32 0.614 Contender 3.97
Minneapolis Blizzards 55 35 0.611 Contender 4.03
Cincinnati Kings 62 40 0.608 Contender 4.14
New York Renegades 50 33 0.602 Contender 3.75
Phoenix Vultures 50 33 0.602 Contender 3.63
Los Angeles Fireballs 51 34 0.600 Neutral 4.25
Indiana Stonecutters 49 34 0.590 Neutral 4.00
Charlotte Drones 50 35 0.588 Neutral 3.90
Louisville Colonels 57 40 0.588 Neutral 3.87
Boston Crusaders 52 37 0.584 Neutral 3.79
Oakland Tritons 48 35 0.578 Neutral 3.44
Vancouver Wolves 55 41 0.573 Neutral 4.04
Seattle Thunder 61 46 0.570 Neutral 4.31
Detroit Mustangs 50 39 0.562 Neutral 4.03
Oklahoma City Barons 50 40 0.556 Neutral 4.27
Philadelphia Warriors 50 40 0.556 Neutral 4.12
Mexico City Jaguars 46 37 0.554 Neutral 4.04
Baltimore Bullets 49 40 0.551 Neutral 4.14
New Orleans Hurricanes 42 42 0.500 Neutral 4.29
Pittsburgh Vipers 41 42 0.494 Neutral 3.35
Denver Dragons 29 53 0.354 Seller 3.96
Summary: 1 Sellers, 15 Neutral, 20 Contenders
====================================================================================================
SECTION 2: TOP 25 OVERALL TRADE TARGETS
====================================================================================================
# Name Team Pos Age CurA PkA Salary Yrs Tags GapFill Score
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Aidan Clark Las Vegas Scorpions SG 29.0 5.0 3.0 $9.0M 1 EXPIRING 36.68 0.819
2 Jade Ahelegbe St Louis Skyhawks SG 26.0 4.0 2.0 $4.0M 1 EXPIRING 38.85 0.788
3 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants SG 20.0 3.5 5.0 $4.5M 1 EXPIRING 32.57 0.764
4 Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurrica SG 21.0 4.0 4.5 $6.0M 1 EXPIRING 33.98 0.757
5 Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones SG 24.0 4.0 3.0 $11.5M 1 EXPIRING 37.73 0.756
6 Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs SG 26.0 4.0 2.0 $8.0M 1 EXPIRING 35.52 0.743
7 Daevon Nash Oakland Tritons SG 23.0 5.0 4.5 $25.0M 2 PLAYER_OPT 31.09 0.728
8 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants SG 30.0 4.5 3.5 $22.0M 1 EXPIRING + PLAYER_OPT 33.65 0.724
9 Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Baron SG 32.0 4.0 3.5 $6.0M 1 EXPIRING 32.58 0.718
10 Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Sain SG 26.0 4.0 2.5 $2.5M 1 EXPIRING 31.18 0.709
11 Quintin Tomlinson Baltimore Bullets SG 24.0 4.0 2.5 $2.5M 1 EXPIRING 31.08 0.708
12 Deandre Patterson Detroit Mustangs SG 21.0 3.0 4.0 $2.8M 1 EXPIRING 30.97 0.694
13 Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars SG 30.0 4.0 2.0 $3.2M 1 EXPIRING 29.74 0.694
14 Kinard Otero Nashville Stars SG 20.0 3.5 4.5 $3.0M 1 EXPIRING 27.16 0.686
15 Damjan Nemanič Los Angeles Firebal SG 30.0 4.5 3.0 $10.0M 1 EXPIRING 25.87 0.672
16 Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones SG 20.0 4.0 4.0 $5.0M 1 EXPIRING 27.56 0.669
17 Isaiah Harris Kansas City Knights SG 23.0 3.5 3.5 $1.8M 1 EXPIRING 29.61 0.661
18 Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators SG 21.0 4.0 3.5 $21.7M 1 EXPIRING 28.13 0.631
19 Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warrio SG 24.0 3.5 3.5 $2.6M 1 EXPIRING 26.21 0.626
20 Davor Giffey Austin Rockets SG 23.0 3.0 2.0 $1.8M 1 EXPIRING 28.39 0.617
21 Tanner Mitchell Las Vegas Scorpions C 20.0 5.0 4.0 $2.8M 1 EXPIRING + SURPLUS 14.62 0.601
22 Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras SG 20.0 3.5 2.5 $7.0M 1 EXPIRING 24.31 0.596
23 James Winters Kansas City Knights C 29.0 5.0 3.5 $6.0M 1 EXPIRING 9.83 0.549
24 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds C 28.0 5.0 5.0 $30.0M 2 PLAYER_OPT + SURPLUS 14.63 0.548
25 Caleb Donovan Indiana Stonecutter C 21.0 4.5 3.5 $3.0M 1 EXPIRING 11.59 0.538
Top 10 — Key Gap-Filling Ratings:
1. Aidan Clark (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 19, playmaking / Ball Handling 16, defense / Stealing 18, playmaking / Spacing 18
2. Jade Ahelegbe (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 20, playmaking / Ball Handling 20, defense / Stealing 19, playmaking / Spacing 19
3. McKinley Power (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 17, playmaking / Ball Handling 19, defense / Stealing 10, playmaking / Spacing 12
4. Darius Blackwell (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 17, playmaking / Ball Handling 17, defense / Stealing 17, playmaking / Spacing 19
5. Anthony Beamer (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 19, playmaking / Ball Handling 18, defense / Stealing 19, playmaking / Spacing 19
6. Tawaski Casuga (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 17, playmaking / Ball Handling 18, defense / Stealing 13, playmaking / Spacing 17
7. Daevon Nash (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 9, playmaking / Ball Handling 13, defense / Stealing 20, playmaking / Spacing 19
8. Adrian Schwartz (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 7, playmaking / Ball Handling 17, defense / Stealing 19, playmaking / Spacing 16
9. Jaleel Usher (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 18, playmaking / Ball Handling 18, defense / Stealing 6, playmaking / Spacing 14
10. Chavis Weddle (SG): playmaking / Playmaking 6, playmaking / Ball Handling 15, defense / Stealing 15, playmaking / Spacing 14
====================================================================================================
SECTION 3: POSITION-SPECIFIC TOP 10
====================================================================================================
--- PG TARGETS (Denver's top gaps: creation / Foul, execution / Pos, creation / Ball, shooting / Insi, creation / Self) ---
# Name Team Age CA Salary Tags GapFill
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Jamaria Flagg Charlotte Drones 28 5.0 $6.0M SURPLUS 5.47
2 Scoochie Hope Atlanta Devils 27 5.0 $5.5M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 4.29
3 Payton Oyediran Mexico City Jaguars 28 5.0 $6.0M EXPIRING 3.96
4 Demetrice Davis Indiana Stonecutter 29 5.0 $10.0M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 4.72
5 Jaaron Hyde Portland Lumberjack 29 5.0 $3.2M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 3.26
6 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants 28 5.0 $22.5M SURPLUS 6.38
7 Bakari Humphrey Miami Cyclones 30 5.0 $23.5M EXPIRING 6.08
8 Emanuel Autry Philadelphia Warrio 28 4.5 $3.2M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 5.12
9 Tayshaun Aumiller Cincinnati Kings 24 5.0 $16.2M EXPIRING 4.18
10 Zach Camara Minneapolis Blizzar 30 4.5 $3.2M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 4.62
Gap skill breakdown (top 3):
1. Jamaria Flagg: execution / Post E 8 (DEN avg 2.4); creation / Ball Do 19 (DEN avg 11.4); shooting / Inside 19 (DEN avg 14.6)
2. Scoochie Hope: execution / Post E 6 (DEN avg 2.4); creation / Ball Do 18 (DEN avg 11.4); shooting / Inside 18 (DEN avg 14.6)
3. Payton Oyediran: creation / Foul Dr 15 (DEN avg 12.2); execution / Post E 8 (DEN avg 2.4); creation / Ball Do 19 (DEN avg 11.4)
4. Demetrice Davis: execution / Post E 7 (DEN avg 2.4); creation / Ball Do 15 (DEN avg 11.4); shooting / Inside 19 (DEN avg 14.6)
5. Jaaron Hyde: creation / Foul Dr 16 (DEN avg 12.2); execution / Post E 3 (DEN avg 2.4); creation / Ball Do 18 (DEN avg 11.4)
--- SG TARGETS (Denver's top gaps: playmaking / Pl, playmaking / Ba, defense / Steal, playmaking / Sp, shooting / 3PT ) ---
# Name Team Age CA Salary Tags GapFill
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Aidan Clark Las Vegas Scorpions 29 5.0 $9.0M EXPIRING 36.68
2 Jade Ahelegbe St Louis Skyhawks 26 4.0 $4.0M EXPIRING 38.85
3 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants 20 3.5 $4.5M EXPIRING 32.57
4 Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurrica 21 4.0 $6.0M EXPIRING 33.98
5 Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones 24 4.0 $11.5M EXPIRING 37.73
6 Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs 26 4.0 $8.0M EXPIRING 35.52
7 Daevon Nash Oakland Tritons 23 5.0 $25.0M PLAYER_OPT 31.09
8 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 30 4.5 $22.0M EXPIRING + PLAYER_OPT 33.65
9 Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Baron 32 4.0 $6.0M EXPIRING 32.58
10 Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Sain 26 4.0 $2.5M EXPIRING 31.18
Gap skill breakdown (top 3):
1. Aidan Clark: playmaking / Playm 19 (DEN avg 0.0); playmaking / Ball 16 (DEN avg 0.0); defense / Stealing 18 (DEN avg 0.0)
2. Jade Ahelegbe: playmaking / Playm 20 (DEN avg 0.0); playmaking / Ball 20 (DEN avg 0.0); defense / Stealing 19 (DEN avg 0.0)
3. McKinley Power: playmaking / Playm 17 (DEN avg 0.0); playmaking / Ball 19 (DEN avg 0.0); defense / Stealing 10 (DEN avg 0.0)
4. Darius Blackwell: playmaking / Playm 17 (DEN avg 0.0); playmaking / Ball 17 (DEN avg 0.0); defense / Stealing 17 (DEN avg 0.0)
5. Anthony Beamer: playmaking / Playm 19 (DEN avg 0.0); playmaking / Ball 18 (DEN avg 0.0); defense / Stealing 19 (DEN avg 0.0)
--- SF TARGETS (Denver's top gaps: playmaking / Pa, creation / Ball, defense / Help , physical / Quic, physical / Athl) ---
# Name Team Age CA Salary Tags GapFill
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Marcus Hayes Minneapolis Blizzar 25 5.0 $3.0M EXPIRING 3.30
2 Arif Langston Chicago Jailbirds 29 5.0 $6.0M EXPIRING 3.30
3 Kourtlin Bechard Toronto Huskies 20 4.5 $2.9M EXPIRING 3.05
4 Kyler Amundson New Orleans Hurrica 25 4.5 $1.8M EXPIRING 5.02
5 Dwayne McRae Washington Pilots 29 4.5 $12.0M EXPIRING 6.49
6 Laurynas Linartas Atlanta Devils 21 4.5 $6.2M EXPIRING 4.56
7 Quantez Franklin Indiana Stonecutter 20 4.5 $6.0M EXPIRING 1.81
8 Andre Wright Louisville Colonels 33 4.5 $3.2M EXPIRING 3.84
9 Zaire Phifer Las Vegas Scorpions 24 5.0 $30.0M EXPIRING + PLAYER_OPT 4.64
10 Kahlil Justice Salt Lake City Sain 21 4.5 $5.7M EXPIRING 2.63
Gap skill breakdown (top 3):
1. Marcus Hayes: playmaking / Passi 11 (DEN avg 9.0); creation / Ball Do 17 (DEN avg 12.3); defense / Help Def 16 (DEN avg 12.8)
2. Arif Langston: creation / Ball Do 15 (DEN avg 12.3); defense / Help Def 17 (DEN avg 12.8); physical / Quickne 13 (DEN avg 12.8)
3. Kourtlin Bechard: playmaking / Passi 17 (DEN avg 9.0); creation / Ball Do 16 (DEN avg 12.3); defense / Help Def 14 (DEN avg 12.8)
4. Kyler Amundson: playmaking / Passi 10 (DEN avg 9.0); creation / Ball Do 17 (DEN avg 12.3); defense / Help Def 19 (DEN avg 12.8)
5. Dwayne McRae: playmaking / Passi 17 (DEN avg 9.0); creation / Ball Do 19 (DEN avg 12.3); defense / Help Def 19 (DEN avg 12.8)
--- PF TARGETS (Denver's top gaps: creation / Foul, playmaking / Pl, defense / Off-B, shooting / Mid-, playmaking / Ba) ---
# Name Team Age CA Salary Tags GapFill
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Semisi Rautins Atlanta Devils 20 5.0 $5.5M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 5.44
2 Lonzo Waterman New Orleans Hurrica 25 5.0 $3.0M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 5.33
3 Adam Hines Seattle Thunder 30 5.0 $6.0M EXPIRING 4.94
4 Jermaine Clark Miami Cyclones 30 5.0 $10.0M EXPIRING 5.29
5 Kenney Holba Charlotte Drones 28 5.0 $15.0M SURPLUS 5.89
6 Andre Griffin Kansas City Knights 28 5.0 $27.0M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 7.94
7 Stanley Ogide Charlotte Drones 27 5.0 $30.0M SURPLUS 8.50
8 Kelvin Page Kansas City Knights 23 5.0 $25.0M SURPLUS 7.16
9 Leon Hawthorne Oklahoma City Baron 30 5.0 $20.0M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 5.94
10 Raekwon Pack Dallas Predators 27 5.0 $23.0M EXPIRING + PLAYER_OPT 6.52
Gap skill breakdown (top 3):
1. Semisi Rautins: creation / Foul Dr 17 (DEN avg 8.0); playmaking / Playm 17 (DEN avg 7.9); defense / Off-Ball 12 (DEN avg 11.7)
2. Lonzo Waterman: creation / Foul Dr 13 (DEN avg 8.0); playmaking / Playm 15 (DEN avg 7.9); defense / Off-Ball 14 (DEN avg 11.7)
3. Adam Hines: creation / Foul Dr 16 (DEN avg 8.0); playmaking / Playm 15 (DEN avg 7.9); defense / Off-Ball 17 (DEN avg 11.7)
4. Jermaine Clark: creation / Foul Dr 13 (DEN avg 8.0); playmaking / Playm 11 (DEN avg 7.9); defense / Off-Ball 18 (DEN avg 11.7)
5. Kenney Holba: creation / Foul Dr 16 (DEN avg 8.0); playmaking / Playm 15 (DEN avg 7.9); playmaking / Ball 17 (DEN avg 10.0)
--- C TARGETS (Denver's top gaps: playmaking / Pa, playmaking / Pl, playmaking / Sp, playmaking / Ba, execution / Iso) ---
# Name Team Age CA Salary Tags GapFill
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Tanner Mitchell Las Vegas Scorpions 20 5.0 $2.8M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 14.62
2 James Winters Kansas City Knights 29 5.0 $6.0M EXPIRING 9.83
3 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 28 5.0 $30.0M PLAYER_OPT + SURPLUS 14.63
4 Caleb Donovan Indiana Stonecutter 21 4.5 $3.0M EXPIRING 11.59
5 Jamar Cosey Los Angeles Firebal 32 4.5 $3.2M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 11.24
6 Lazar Dragovic Kansas City Knights 29 5.0 $3.0M EXPIRING 7.64
7 Evan McGowan San Diego Calaveras 20 4.5 $4.3M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 8.24
8 Winslo Barry Seattle Thunder 29 5.0 $6.0M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 7.58
9 Ambrose Udoh Toronto Huskies 33 5.0 $13.0M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 8.89
10 Elijah Worthing Nashville Stars 21 4.0 $4.3M EXPIRING + SURPLUS 13.17
Gap skill breakdown (top 3):
1. Tanner Mitchell: playmaking / Passi 15 (DEN avg 4.9); playmaking / Playm 19 (DEN avg 2.2); playmaking / Spaci 18 (DEN avg 2.9)
2. James Winters: playmaking / Passi 18 (DEN avg 4.9); playmaking / Playm 15 (DEN avg 2.2); playmaking / Ball 19 (DEN avg 5.0)
3. Stanley Amakor: playmaking / Passi 18 (DEN avg 4.9); playmaking / Playm 19 (DEN avg 2.2); playmaking / Spaci 13 (DEN avg 2.9)
4. Caleb Donovan: playmaking / Passi 15 (DEN avg 4.9); playmaking / Playm 18 (DEN avg 2.2); playmaking / Spaci 9 (DEN avg 2.9)
5. Jamar Cosey: playmaking / Passi 12 (DEN avg 4.9); playmaking / Playm 13 (DEN avg 2.2); playmaking / Spaci 17 (DEN avg 2.9)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 4: HIGH-UPSIDE TARGETS (Age <= 25, PA > CA + 0.5)
====================================================================================================
# Name Team Pos Age CurA PkA Gap Salary Yrs Tags
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
====================================================================================================
SECTION 5: CAP-FRIENDLY TARGETS (Salary <= $5M, CA >= 3.0)
====================================================================================================
# Name Team Pos Age CurA PkA Salary Yrs Tags Score
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Jade Ahelegbe St Louis Skyhawks SG 26.0 4.0 2.0 $4.0M 1 EXPIRING 0.788
2 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants SG 20.0 3.5 5.0 $4.5M 1 EXPIRING 0.764
3 Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Sain SG 26.0 4.0 2.5 $2.5M 1 EXPIRING 0.709
4 Quintin Tomlinson Baltimore Bullets SG 24.0 4.0 2.5 $2.5M 1 EXPIRING 0.708
5 Deandre Patterson Detroit Mustangs SG 21.0 3.0 4.0 $2.8M 1 EXPIRING 0.694
6 Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars SG 30.0 4.0 2.0 $3.2M 1 EXPIRING 0.694
7 Kinard Otero Nashville Stars SG 20.0 3.5 4.5 $3.0M 1 EXPIRING 0.686
8 Isaiah Harris Kansas City Knights SG 23.0 3.5 3.5 $1.8M 1 EXPIRING 0.661
9 Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warrio SG 24.0 3.5 3.5 $2.6M 1 EXPIRING 0.626
10 Davor Giffey Austin Rockets SG 23.0 3.0 2.0 $1.8M 1 EXPIRING 0.617
11 Tanner Mitchell Las Vegas Scorpions C 20.0 5.0 4.0 $2.8M 1 EXPIRING + SURPLUS 0.601
12 Caleb Donovan Indiana Stonecutter C 21.0 4.5 3.5 $3.0M 1 EXPIRING 0.538
13 Jamar Cosey Los Angeles Firebal C 32.0 4.5 3.5 $3.2M 1 EXPIRING + SURPLUS 0.534
14 Lazar Dragovic Kansas City Knights C 29.0 5.0 3.5 $3.0M 1 EXPIRING 0.529
15 Evan McGowan San Diego Calaveras C 20.0 4.5 5.0 $4.3M 1 EXPIRING + SURPLUS 0.529
====================================================================================================
SECTION 6: DENVER ROSTER CONTEXT
====================================================================================================
Name Pos Age CurA PkA MPG Salary Yrs Option Status
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Garrick Jurkin PF 30 5.0 3.5 31.5 $27,500,000 1 None
Kaimyn Fry C 22 4.0 3.0 31.2 $17,500,000 3 None
LaMarcus Quinn PG 21 3.5 3.5 30.7 $4,600,000 1 Team Option
Tyrae Lewis PG 20 3.5 5.0 30.7 $6,250,000 2 Team Option
Pedro Santos PF 22 5.0 4.5 29.7 $25,000,000 1 None
Kel Pendergast SF 24 4.5 4.0 16.7 $19,000,000 1 None
Hudson Leonard SF 28 5.0 3.5 13.6 $12,000,000 2 None
Robert Alcegaire C 28 4.5 3.0 11.3 $6,000,000 1 None
Devaugntah Litton C 22 3.0 2.0 6.5 $1,750,000 1 Team Option
John Ford PF 30 4.0 3.0 5.5 $3,250,000 1 None
Tyrique Beaudean PG 24 3.5 3.5 3.7 $3,400,000 1 None
Sebastian Steinbach SG 23 4.0 3.0 0.0 $1,750,000 1 None
Shaun Ackerman PG nan 3.5 5.0 0.0 $4,750,000 3 Team Option
Jimmy McGhie PF nan 2.5 3.5 0.0 $1,750,000 2 Team Option
Total Roster Salary: $134,500,000
Roster Size: 14
Potential Trade Chips (expiring contracts):
- Garrick Jurkin (PF, Current Ability 5.0, $27,500,000)
- LaMarcus Quinn (PG, Current Ability 3.5, $4,600,000)
- Pedro Santos (PF, Current Ability 5.0, $25,000,000)
- Kel Pendergast (SF, Current Ability 4.5, $19,000,000)
- Robert Alcegaire (C, Current Ability 4.5, $6,000,000)
- Devaugntah Litton (C, Current Ability 3.0, $1,750,000)
- John Ford (PF, Current Ability 4.0, $3,250,000)
- Tyrique Beaudean (PG, Current Ability 3.5, $3,400,000)
- Sebastian Steinbach (SG, Current Ability 4.0, $1,750,000)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total trade candidates evaluated: 359
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\10_trade_watchlist.txt
11
Defensive Composition
====================================================================================================
11 - DEFENSIVE TEAM COMPOSITION
====================================================================================================
Methodology:
- All ratings are minutes-weighted (total minutes = MPG x GP)
- Rotation players: 15+ MPG, 10+ games played
- Top-5 defensive teams: ranked by average points allowed
- Top-5 benchmark: Austin Rockets, Nashville Stars, Charlotte Drones, Miami Cyclones, St Louis Skyhawks
Denver Defensive Context:
- 2049 Record: 29-53 (27th of 36)
- Pts Allowed: 112.8 (rank 32/36)
- Wt DRtg: 117.8 (rank 22/36)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 1: LEAGUE DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
====================================================================================================
Rk Team PtsA DRtg Win% HelpDef DefReb RimPro OffBDef TopDefArch
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Austin Rockets 101.6 114.9 0.689 13.9 13.1 10.2 14.0 Point Of Attack (3)
2 Nashville Stars 102.3 120.1 0.651 14.8 12.6 12.9 12.1 Wing Stopper (4)
3 Charlotte Drones 104.3 118.8 0.588 16.4 13.4 10.7 14.1 Point Of Attack (3)
4 Miami Cyclones 107.7 116.9 0.639 16.1 12.7 14.0 12.5 Wing Stopper (6)
5 St Louis Skyhawks 108.0 120.4 0.675 13.1 12.8 12.8 16.3 Point Of Attack (3)
6 Phoenix Vultures 108.6 115.3 0.602 13.6 13.5 11.4 13.8 Wing Stopper (3)
7 Washington Pilots 108.6 118.3 0.614 15.5 13.3 12.3 13.3 Mobile Big (3)
8 Cleveland Giants 109.0 116.3 0.670 14.8 14.0 12.1 13.3 Mobile Big (2)
9 Baltimore Bullets 109.0 114.6 0.551 15.8 12.0 9.8 15.4 Wing Stopper (3)
10 Toronto Huskies 109.1 119.5 0.627 11.9 13.0 9.2 14.0 Wing Stopper (3)
11 Mexico City Jaguars 109.1 116.6 0.554 12.7 11.3 10.8 15.5 Wing Stopper (3)
12 Las Vegas Scorpions 109.1 114.4 0.677 13.4 13.9 10.6 14.5 Wing Stopper (3)
13 Atlanta Devils 109.3 120.1 0.651 12.1 11.4 10.4 12.3 Wing Stopper (4)
14 Dallas Predators 109.4 118.2 0.614 14.6 14.7 12.1 14.9 Anchor Big (3)
15 New York Renegades 109.5 117.5 0.602 13.9 12.1 11.8 15.3 Wing Stopper (4)
16 Detroit Mustangs 110.1 114.1 0.562 15.1 12.4 11.8 16.7 Wing Stopper (4)
17 Houston Lightning 110.1 119.6 0.651 12.4 12.5 10.0 12.9 Anchor Big (4)
18 Boston Crusaders 110.4 118.1 0.584 15.3 12.7 11.7 14.6 Point Of Attack (3)
19 Portland Lumberjacks 110.7 115.0 0.629 15.2 10.8 8.5 12.4 Point Of Attack (3)
20 Louisville Colonels 111.0 115.2 0.588 14.7 12.7 11.8 14.9 Wing Stopper (4)
21 New Orleans Hurricanes 111.2 116.2 0.500 15.2 13.0 12.3 11.5 Wing Stopper (4)
22 San Diego Calaveras 111.8 120.5 0.614 13.4 13.0 10.1 11.9 Wing Stopper (2)
23 Seattle Thunder 112.0 110.6 0.570 15.1 16.8 12.6 13.9 Wing Stopper (3)
24 Oklahoma City Barons 112.1 113.5 0.556 15.3 13.6 10.3 14.5 Wing Stopper (5)
25 Philadelphia Warriors 112.3 114.2 0.556 16.1 14.8 11.1 15.4 Wing Stopper (3)
26 Cincinnati Kings 112.4 112.6 0.608 14.3 16.8 12.1 13.2 Wing Stopper (4)
27 Pittsburgh Vipers 112.5 118.0 0.494 14.0 13.6 12.2 13.8 Wing Stopper (4)
28 Chicago Jailbirds 112.5 113.4 0.629 15.7 15.8 11.8 14.4 Wing Stopper (5)
29 Indiana Stonecutters 112.6 121.1 0.590 13.2 11.0 8.8 13.4 Wing Stopper (3)
30 Vancouver Wolves 112.7 112.4 0.573 17.0 13.6 12.3 15.3 Wing Stopper (3)
31 Minneapolis Blizzards 112.7 115.1 0.611 14.0 13.3 9.6 13.7 Wing Stopper (4)
32 Denver Dragons 112.8 117.8 0.354 14.1 12.8 12.3 13.9 Wing Stopper (3) <--
33 Kansas City Knights 113.0 115.1 0.621 15.1 14.1 10.4 16.3 Wing Stopper (3)
34 Salt Lake City Saints 113.1 120.9 0.614 14.4 10.7 10.5 14.0 Wing Stopper (2)
35 Los Angeles Fireballs 114.3 115.3 0.600 14.2 13.0 11.6 15.0 Chaser (2)
36 Oakland Tritons 118.0 119.6 0.578 15.5 14.6 12.4 12.3 Wing Stopper (4)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 2: DEFENSIVE ARCHETYPE BLUEPRINT
====================================================================================================
Defensive archetype composition — Top-5 defensive teams vs Denver (rotation, 15+ MPG):
Team Anchor Big Chaser Helper Mobile Big Point Of Att Wing Stopper Total
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Austin Rockets 1 0 1 1 3 2 8
Nashville Stars 2 0 1 2 0 4 9
Charlotte Drones 1 1 0 2 3 2 9
Miami Cyclones 1 0 0 2 1 6 10
St Louis Skyhawks 2 0 0 2 3 2 9
Denver Dragons 0 0 1 1 1 3 6 <-- Denver
Denver vs Top-5 Avg archetype counts:
Anchor Big Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 1.4 Diff: -1.4 ***
Chaser Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 0.2 Diff: -0.2
Helper Denver: 1 Top5 Avg: 0.4 Diff: +0.6
Mobile Big Denver: 1 Top5 Avg: 1.8 Diff: -0.8 ***
Point Of Attack Denver: 1 Top5 Avg: 2.0 Diff: -1.0 ***
Wing Stopper Denver: 3 Top5 Avg: 3.2 Diff: -0.2
*** = Denver has fewer than Top-5 average
====================================================================================================
SECTION 3: POSITION-GROUP DEFENSIVE PROFILES
====================================================================================================
--- PG DEFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap Rank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.98 17.46 -3.48 34/36 ***
defense / Help Defense 12.03 14.40 -2.37 26/36 ***
defense / Post Defense 3.56 5.87 -2.31 22/36 ***
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 8.03 9.92 -1.90 29/36 ***
defense / Rim Protection 3.46 5.27 -1.81 25/36 ***
defense / Stealing 15.46 16.71 -1.25 23/36 ***
defense / Off-Ball Defense 16.51 15.89 +0.62 21/36
*** = gap > 1.0 rating points
--- SG DEFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap Rank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 0.00 17.45 -17.45 36/36 ***
defense / Off-Ball Defense 0.00 16.59 -16.59 36/36 ***
defense / Help Defense 0.00 15.84 -15.84 36/36 ***
defense / Stealing 0.00 15.80 -15.80 36/36 ***
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 0.00 6.56 -6.56 36/36 ***
defense / Rim Protection 0.00 6.35 -6.35 36/36 ***
defense / Post Defense 0.00 5.85 -5.85 36/36 ***
*** = gap > 1.0 rating points
--- SF DEFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap Rank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 11.00 13.96 -2.96 21/36 ***
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18.00 15.04 +2.96 7/36
defense / Off-Ball Defense 18.00 14.64 +3.36 3/36
defense / Stealing 19.00 14.93 +4.07 2/36
defense / Rim Protection 9.00 4.38 +4.62 4/36
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 17.00 10.13 +6.87 3/36
defense / Post Defense 14.00 5.81 +8.19 3/36
*** = gap > 1.0 rating points
--- PF DEFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap Rank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.12 14.47 -2.36 33/36 ***
defense / Help Defense 15.46 15.33 +0.13 20/36
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.12 13.71 +0.41 16/36
defense / Stealing 15.51 15.03 +0.48 21/36
defense / Post Defense 16.43 13.85 +2.58 11/36
defense / Rim Protection 18.49 14.77 +3.71 5/36
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19.00 14.74 +4.26 1/36
*** = gap > 1.0 rating points
--- C DEFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap Rank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Post Defense 15.00 16.82 -1.82 32/36 ***
defense / Stealing 8.00 9.39 -1.39 19/36 ***
defense / Off-Ball Defense 10.00 11.33 -1.33 18/36 ***
defense / Help Defense 16.00 14.89 +1.11 12/36
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 18.00 16.56 +1.44 9/36
defense / Rim Protection 19.00 17.33 +1.67 1/36
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 8.00 5.47 +2.53 10/36
*** = gap > 1.0 rating points
====================================================================================================
SECTION 4: DEFENSIVE WIN CORRELATIONS
====================================================================================================
Pearson r between minutes-weighted team defensive ratings and win_pct:
Rating r Verdict
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
physical / Strength -0.357 MODERATE
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense -0.317 MODERATE
physical / Quickness -0.227 WEAK
defense / Help Defense -0.209 WEAK
physical / Athleticism -0.185 WEAK
defense / Rim Protection -0.170 WEAK
defense / Post Defense -0.155 WEAK
physical / Speed -0.153 WEAK
defense / Stealing -0.123 NEGLIGIBLE
defense / Off-Ball Defense -0.073 NEGLIGIBLE
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding -0.002 NEGLIGIBLE
Key insight: Help Defense and Defensive Rebounding consistently rank as the
strongest defensive win predictors — target these in roster construction.
====================================================================================================
SECTION 5: DENVER'S BEST DEFENSIVE LINEUPS (SIMULATED)
====================================================================================================
Composite formula: 30% Help Def + 25% Def Reb + 15% Rim Pro + 15% Off-Ball Def
+ 10% On-Ball Peri Def + 5% Stealing
--- Best Defense (PG/SG/SF/PF/C) ---
Name Pos MPG CA HelpD DefRb RimPr OBDef OnBDf Steal Comp
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LaMarcus Quinn PG 30.7 3.5 13.0 9.0 2.0 17.0 13.0 14.0 11.00
Kel Pendergast SF 16.7 4.5 11.0 17.0 9.0 18.0 18.0 19.0 14.35
Garrick Jurkin PF 31.5 5.0 14.0 18.0 18.0 16.0 19.0 16.0 16.50
Kaimyn Fry C 31.2 4.0 16.0 18.0 19.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 14.85
Lineup avg vs Top-5 defensive benchmark (all positions combined):
Help Defense Lineup: 13.5 Top5: 14.9 Gap: -1.4
Def Rebounding Lineup: 15.5 Top5: 11.4 Gap: +4.1
Rim Protection Lineup: 12.0 Top5: 9.6 Gap: +2.4
Off-Ball Defense Lineup: 15.2 Top5: 14.6 Gap: +0.7
On-Ball Peri Def Lineup: 14.5 Top5: 14.0 Gap: +0.5
Stealing Lineup: 14.2 Top5: 14.4 Gap: -0.1
Combined MPG in 2049: 110.1 (240 available per game)
--- Big Ball (PG/SF/PF*2/C) ---
Name Pos MPG CA HelpD DefRb RimPr OBDef OnBDf Steal Comp
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LaMarcus Quinn PG 30.7 3.5 13.0 9.0 2.0 17.0 13.0 14.0 11.00
Kel Pendergast SF 16.7 4.5 11.0 17.0 9.0 18.0 18.0 19.0 14.35
Garrick Jurkin PF 31.5 5.0 14.0 18.0 18.0 16.0 19.0 16.0 16.50
Pedro Santos PF 29.7 5.0 17.0 10.0 19.0 8.0 19.0 15.0 14.30
Kaimyn Fry C 31.2 4.0 16.0 18.0 19.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 14.85
Lineup avg vs Top-5 defensive benchmark (all positions combined):
Help Defense Lineup: 14.2 Top5: 14.9 Gap: -0.7
Def Rebounding Lineup: 14.4 Top5: 11.4 Gap: +3.0
Rim Protection Lineup: 13.4 Top5: 9.6 Gap: +3.8
Off-Ball Defense Lineup: 13.8 Top5: 14.6 Gap: -0.8
On-Ball Peri Def Lineup: 15.4 Top5: 14.0 Gap: +1.4
Stealing Lineup: 14.4 Top5: 14.4 Gap: +0.0
Combined MPG in 2049: 139.8 (240 available per game)
--- Small Ball (PG/SG/SF*2/PF) ---
Name Pos MPG CA HelpD DefRb RimPr OBDef OnBDf Steal Comp
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LaMarcus Quinn PG 30.7 3.5 13.0 9.0 2.0 17.0 13.0 14.0 11.00
Kel Pendergast SF 16.7 4.5 11.0 17.0 9.0 18.0 18.0 19.0 14.35
Hudson Leonard SF 13.6 5.0 15.0 9.0 5.0 19.0 18.0 18.0 13.05
Garrick Jurkin PF 31.5 5.0 14.0 18.0 18.0 16.0 19.0 16.0 16.50
Lineup avg vs Top-5 defensive benchmark (all positions combined):
Help Defense Lineup: 13.2 Top5: 14.9 Gap: -1.6
Def Rebounding Lineup: 13.2 Top5: 11.4 Gap: +1.9
Rim Protection Lineup: 8.5 Top5: 9.6 Gap: -1.1
Off-Ball Defense Lineup: 17.5 Top5: 14.6 Gap: +2.9
On-Ball Peri Def Lineup: 17.0 Top5: 14.0 Gap: +3.0
Stealing Lineup: 16.8 Top5: 14.4 Gap: +2.4
Combined MPG in 2049: 92.5 (240 available per game)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 6: DEFENSIVE IMPROVEMENT TARGETS
====================================================================================================
Top trade/FA candidates who most improve Denver's defensive composition.
Scored by defensive gap-fill value (how much they close Denver's defensive gaps vs Top-5).
# Name Team Pos CA Salary HelpD DefRb RimPr OBDef Tags DefFill
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Daevon Nash Oakland Tritons SG 5.0 $25.0M 19.0 17.0 14.0 16.0 PLAYER_OPT 44.607
2 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants SG 4.5 $22.0M 12.0 19.0 7.0 16.0 EXPIRING + PLAYER_O 41.098
3 Damjan Nemanič Los Angeles Fireballs SG 4.5 $10.0M 19.0 8.0 13.0 18.0 EXPIRING 38.821
4 Kinard Otero Nashville Stars SG 3.5 $3.0M 16.0 6.0 4.0 16.0 EXPIRING 36.020
5 Aidan Clark Las Vegas Scorpions SG 5.0 $9.0M 18.0 6.0 9.0 18.0 EXPIRING 35.482
6 Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones SG 4.0 $5.0M 16.0 14.0 8.0 17.0 EXPIRING 35.352
7 Davor Giffey Austin Rockets SG 3.0 $1.8M 10.0 15.0 1.0 17.0 EXPIRING 35.220
8 Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs SG 4.0 $8.0M 13.0 9.0 1.0 19.0 EXPIRING 34.389
9 Quintin Tomlinson Baltimore Bullets SG 4.0 $2.5M 15.0 9.0 2.0 18.0 EXPIRING 32.951
10 Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warriors SG 3.5 $2.6M 11.0 9.0 5.0 16.0 EXPIRING 32.727
Denver's biggest defensive gaps (by position, sorted by deficit vs Top-5):
PG: defense / Help Defense (-2.4), defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense (-3.5), defense / Post Defense (-2.3), defense / Rim Protection (-1.8), defense / Stealing (-1.2), rebounding / Defensive Rebounding (-1.9)
SG: defense / Help Defense (-15.8), defense / Off-Ball Defense (-16.6), defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense (-17.4), defense / Post Defense (-5.9), defense / Rim Protection (-6.4), defense / Stealing (-15.8), rebounding / Defensive Rebounding (-6.6)
SF: defense / Help Defense (-3.0)
PF: defense / Off-Ball Defense (-2.4)
C: defense / Off-Ball Defense (-1.3), defense / Post Defense (-1.8), defense / Stealing (-1.4)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\11_defensive_composition.txt
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
12
Offensive Units
====================================================================================================
12 - OFFENSIVE UNIT ANALYSIS
====================================================================================================
Methodology:
- All ratings are minutes-weighted (total minutes = MPG x GP)
- Rotation players: 15+ MPG, 10+ games played
- Top-5 offensive teams: ranked by average points scored
- Top-5 benchmark: Oakland Tritons, Chicago Jailbirds, Los Angeles Fireballs, Salt Lake City Saints, Cincinnati Kings
Denver Offensive Context:
- 2049 Record: 29-53 (27th of 36)
- Pts Scored: 108.0 (rank 34/36)
- Spacing: rank 25/36 (confirmed critical gap)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 1: LEAGUE OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
====================================================================================================
Rk Team PtsScr ORtg(wt) Win% InsSht 3PT PnR Space TopOffArch
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Oakland Tritons 122.2 113.7 0.578 15.5 13.7 12.2 11.7 Secondary Creator (3)
2 Chicago Jailbirds 118.1 124.7 0.629 17.7 16.7 14.8 13.8 Secondary Creator (3)
3 Los Angeles Fireballs 117.2 117.5 0.600 17.3 13.9 13.3 10.6 Secondary Creator (3)
4 Salt Lake City Saints 116.5 118.6 0.614 15.8 14.2 12.7 12.0 Secondary Creator (3)
5 Cincinnati Kings 116.2 127.5 0.608 17.9 15.6 13.8 11.8 Interior Playmaker (2
6 San Diego Calaveras 116.2 112.2 0.614 14.6 12.1 11.7 11.0 Secondary Creator (3)
7 Indiana Stonecutters 116.1 114.4 0.590 16.7 13.5 13.7 10.8 Secondary Creator (5)
8 Kansas City Knights 115.8 126.0 0.621 17.8 15.9 14.4 11.8 Secondary Creator (3)
9 Vancouver Wolves 115.7 120.3 0.573 18.2 16.9 13.0 13.6 Secondary Creator (3)
10 Minneapolis Blizzards 115.5 115.7 0.611 17.5 14.5 12.9 10.9 Secondary Creator (3)
11 Cleveland Giants 115.3 122.1 0.670 18.3 15.4 13.2 11.1 Primary Ballhandler (
12 Houston Lightning 115.3 116.4 0.651 16.4 13.9 12.8 10.6 Shot Creator (3)
13 Seattle Thunder 114.9 120.0 0.570 17.6 15.3 14.6 10.4 Roll-and-Cut Big (3)
14 Portland Lumberjacks 114.9 119.3 0.629 17.7 14.4 13.4 12.9 Secondary Creator (2)
15 Atlanta Devils 114.9 110.1 0.651 16.3 14.6 9.0 11.3 Versatile Big (2)
16 Las Vegas Scorpions 114.8 118.1 0.677 17.8 15.2 13.0 14.4 Secondary Creator (4)
17 New York Renegades 114.4 119.4 0.602 17.8 15.4 11.2 11.5 Secondary Creator (3)
18 Louisville Colonels 114.3 120.2 0.588 17.4 14.9 14.1 11.9 Secondary Creator (4)
19 Philadelphia Warriors 114.1 121.6 0.556 17.1 13.7 14.9 9.6 Roll-and-Cut Big (2)
20 Oklahoma City Barons 113.8 122.3 0.556 17.9 16.0 14.5 11.8 Secondary Creator (5)
21 Dallas Predators 113.7 115.9 0.614 16.0 14.5 14.1 11.0 Pick-and-Pop Big (2)
22 St Louis Skyhawks 113.6 114.2 0.675 16.4 11.7 10.4 9.3 Secondary Creator (2)
23 Boston Crusaders 113.4 120.7 0.584 17.2 16.3 11.6 12.0 Primary Ballhandler (
24 Washington Pilots 113.0 113.6 0.614 18.5 14.9 13.3 9.9 Secondary Creator (4)
25 Toronto Huskies 112.9 115.5 0.627 16.1 14.5 11.1 10.7 Secondary Creator (3)
26 Pittsburgh Vipers 112.9 115.2 0.494 16.5 12.4 9.9 8.1 Secondary Creator (3)
27 Miami Cyclones 112.9 116.5 0.639 17.9 14.3 10.4 11.6 Secondary Creator (6)
28 Detroit Mustangs 112.3 120.3 0.562 17.0 16.5 13.8 11.4 Secondary Creator (3)
29 Phoenix Vultures 112.0 117.2 0.602 16.3 12.8 11.4 8.5 Secondary Creator (2)
30 New Orleans Hurricanes 111.9 119.2 0.500 17.8 14.8 14.4 11.4 Secondary Creator (5)
31 Mexico City Jaguars 111.5 121.2 0.554 17.5 14.2 14.3 13.3 Secondary Creator (3)
32 Baltimore Bullets 111.4 117.8 0.551 18.0 15.5 14.9 12.3 Secondary Creator (3)
33 Charlotte Drones 108.3 118.0 0.588 17.0 14.6 15.5 13.5 Primary Ballhandler (
34 Denver Dragons 108.0 112.9 0.354 15.9 14.3 13.3 12.2 Secondary Creator (3) <--
35 Nashville Stars 108.0 111.0 0.651 15.7 12.9 9.8 8.8 Stationary Shooter (2
36 Austin Rockets 107.2 116.6 0.689 17.1 16.3 12.3 11.5 Shot Creator (2)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE SYSTEM PROFILES
====================================================================================================
Offensive archetype composition and system proficiency -- Top-5 offensive teams vs Denver:
--- OFFENSIVE ARCHETYPE COUNTS (Rotation, 15+ MPG) ---
Team Glue Guy Interior Pla Post Bully Post Scorer Primary Ball Roll-and-Cut Secondary Cr Shot Creator Stationary S Versatile Bi Total
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oakland Tritons 1 1 0 1 0 1 3 0 1 1 9
Chicago Jailbirds 0 2 0 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 9
Los Angeles Fireballs 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 0 0 2 8
Salt Lake City Saints 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 5
Cincinnati Kings 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 0 8
Denver Dragons 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 6 <-- Denver
Denver vs Top-5 Offensive Avg archetype counts:
Glue Guy Denver: 1 Top5 Avg: 0.4 Diff: +0.6
Interior Playmaker Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 1.0 Diff: -1.0 ***
Post Bully Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 0.2 Diff: -0.2
Post Scorer Denver: 1 Top5 Avg: 0.4 Diff: +0.6
Primary Ballhandler Denver: 1 Top5 Avg: 0.4 Diff: +0.6
Roll-and-Cut Big Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 0.8 Diff: -0.8 ***
Secondary Creator Denver: 3 Top5 Avg: 2.8 Diff: +0.2
Shot Creator Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 0.2 Diff: -0.2
Stationary Shooter Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 0.8 Diff: -0.8 ***
Versatile Big Denver: 0 Top5 Avg: 0.8 Diff: -0.8 ***
*** = Denver has fewer than Top-5 average
--- SYSTEM PROFICIENCY AVERAGES (Rotation, 15+ MPG) ---
Team Pace And Spa Morey Ball Balanced Grit And Gri Seven Second Triangle Perimeter Ce Post Centric
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oakland Tritons 8.9 10.4 17.1 3.6 6.0 1.4 2.4 2.9
Chicago Jailbirds 19.2 15.1 14.8 3.7 3.1 0.3 2.8 2.8
Los Angeles Fireballs 18.5 9.6 17.0 1.8 2.9 1.9 2.5 6.8
Salt Lake City Saints 13.4 6.6 19.6 1.0 2.4 4.4 2.0 1.6
Cincinnati Kings 13.0 20.0 17.0 3.4 5.5 12.5 2.0 3.8
Denver Dragons 6.0 13.7 20.0 8.8 2.5 0.7 2.2 2.2 <-- Denver
====================================================================================================
SECTION 3: OFFENSIVE WIN CORRELATIONS
====================================================================================================
Pearson r between minutes-weighted team offensive ratings and win_pct:
Rating r Verdict
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
creation / Shoot Off Dribble -0.464 MODERATE
creation / Foul Drawing +0.416 MODERATE
execution / Post Execution +0.297 WEAK
execution / Pick & Roll Execution -0.272 WEAK
physical / First Step -0.247 WEAK
physical / Quickness -0.227 WEAK
execution / Basketball IQ -0.189 WEAK
physical / Athleticism -0.185 WEAK
creation / Finishing -0.163 WEAK
physical / Speed -0.153 WEAK
shooting / Free Throws +0.139 NEGLIGIBLE
playmaking / Playmaking +0.138 NEGLIGIBLE
shooting / Inside Shooting +0.072 NEGLIGIBLE
playmaking / Passing -0.071 NEGLIGIBLE
creation / Ball Dominance +0.062 NEGLIGIBLE
playmaking / Gravity -0.060 NEGLIGIBLE
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting +0.059 NEGLIGIBLE
execution / Isolation Execution -0.045 NEGLIGIBLE
creation / Self-Creation +0.026 NEGLIGIBLE
playmaking / Ball Handling +0.017 NEGLIGIBLE
shooting / 3PT Shooting +0.014 NEGLIGIBLE
playmaking / Spacing -0.007 NEGLIGIBLE
Key insight: Inside Shooting and Pick & Roll Execution are the strongest
offensive win predictors -- these should be prioritized in roster construction.
====================================================================================================
SECTION 4: SIMULATED OFFENSIVE LINEUPS FOR DENVER
====================================================================================================
Composite formula: 25% Inside Shooting + 20% PnR Execution + 15% 3PT Shooting
+ 15% Spacing + 10% Ball Handling + 10% Passing + 5% Self-Creation
Note: No actual lineup/5-man unit data exists -- these are constructed from
individual player ratings to identify Denver's best offensive groupings.
--- Pace & Space (PG/SG/SF/PF/C) ---
Name Pos MPG CA InsSht PnR 3PT Space BallH Pass SelfCr Comp
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LaMarcus Quinn PG 30.7 3.5 14.0 16.0 18.0 14.0 17.0 18.0 15.0 15.75
Kel Pendergast SF 16.7 4.5 18.0 11.0 19.0 19.0 18.0 9.0 19.0 16.05
Pedro Santos PF 29.7 5.0 16.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 14.0 16.0 15.0 16.60
Devaugntah Litton C 6.5 3.0 16.0 16.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 11.0 11.0 11.65
Lineup avg vs Top-5 offensive benchmark (all positions combined):
InsSht Lineup: 16.0 Top5: 16.8 Gap: -0.8
PnR Lineup: 15.2 Top5: 13.8 Gap: +1.4
3PT Lineup: 15.8 Top5: 15.5 Gap: +0.2
Space Lineup: 14.5 Top5: 13.6 Gap: +0.9
BallH Lineup: 13.2 Top5: 13.6 Gap: -0.4
Pass Lineup: 13.5 Top5: 14.4 Gap: -0.9
SelfCr Lineup: 15.0 Top5: 15.5 Gap: -0.5
Combined MPG in 2049: 83.6 (240 available per game)
--- Post-Centric (PG/SF/PF*2/C) ---
Name Pos MPG CA InsSht PnR 3PT Space BallH Pass SelfCr Comp
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LaMarcus Quinn PG 30.7 3.5 14.0 16.0 18.0 14.0 17.0 18.0 15.0 15.75
Kel Pendergast SF 16.7 4.5 18.0 11.0 19.0 19.0 18.0 9.0 19.0 16.05
Pedro Santos PF 29.7 5.0 16.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 14.0 16.0 15.0 16.60
Garrick Jurkin PF 31.5 5.0 17.0 9.0 17.0 18.0 7.0 15.0 9.0 13.95
Devaugntah Litton C 6.5 3.0 16.0 16.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 11.0 11.0 11.65
Lineup avg vs Top-5 offensive benchmark (all positions combined):
InsSht Lineup: 16.2 Top5: 16.8 Gap: -0.6
PnR Lineup: 14.0 Top5: 13.8 Gap: +0.2
3PT Lineup: 16.0 Top5: 15.5 Gap: +0.5
Space Lineup: 15.2 Top5: 13.6 Gap: +1.6
BallH Lineup: 12.0 Top5: 13.6 Gap: -1.6
Pass Lineup: 13.8 Top5: 14.4 Gap: -0.6
SelfCr Lineup: 13.8 Top5: 15.5 Gap: -1.7
Combined MPG in 2049: 115.1 (240 available per game)
--- Balanced (PG/SG/SF/PF/C) ---
Name Pos MPG CA InsSht PnR 3PT Space BallH Pass SelfCr Comp
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LaMarcus Quinn PG 30.7 3.5 14.0 16.0 18.0 14.0 17.0 18.0 15.0 15.75
Kel Pendergast SF 16.7 4.5 18.0 11.0 19.0 19.0 18.0 9.0 19.0 16.05
Pedro Santos PF 29.7 5.0 16.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 14.0 16.0 15.0 16.60
Devaugntah Litton C 6.5 3.0 16.0 16.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 11.0 11.0 11.65
Lineup avg vs Top-5 offensive benchmark (all positions combined):
InsSht Lineup: 16.0 Top5: 16.8 Gap: -0.8
PnR Lineup: 15.2 Top5: 13.8 Gap: +1.4
3PT Lineup: 15.8 Top5: 15.5 Gap: +0.2
Space Lineup: 14.5 Top5: 13.6 Gap: +0.9
BallH Lineup: 13.2 Top5: 13.6 Gap: -0.4
Pass Lineup: 13.5 Top5: 14.4 Gap: -0.9
SelfCr Lineup: 15.0 Top5: 15.5 Gap: -0.5
Combined MPG in 2049: 83.6 (240 available per game)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 5: SPACING ANALYSIS (DEEP DIVE)
====================================================================================================
Spacing is a confirmed critical gap for Denver (rank 25/36).
Poor spacing drags down offensive efficiency for the entire team.
League averages (rotation players, 15+ MPG): Spacing 11.4, 3PT 14.6, Gravity 13.7
Name Pos MPG GP TotMin Space 3PT Grav MidRng Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Garrick Jurkin PF 31.5 82 2583 18.0 17.0 14.0 9.0 OK
Kaimyn Fry C 31.2 77 2402 2.0 4.0 7.0 10.0 DRAG
LaMarcus Quinn PG 30.7 82 2517 14.0 18.0 17.0 10.0 OK
Tyrae Lewis PG 30.7 78 2395 10.0 14.0 15.0 14.0 DRAG
Pedro Santos PF 29.7 82 2435 18.0 17.0 11.0 9.0 OK
Kel Pendergast SF 16.7 54 902 19.0 19.0 17.0 14.0 OK
Hudson Leonard SF 13.6 49 666 9.0 17.0 15.0 15.0 low-min
Robert Alcegaire C 11.3 54 610 3.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 low-min
Devaugntah Litton C 6.5 31 202 7.0 9.0 9.0 7.0 low-min
John Ford PF 5.5 31 170 3.0 12.0 10.0 18.0 low-min
Tyrique Beaudean PG 3.7 26 96 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 low-min
Sebastian Steinbach SG 0.0 0 0 13.0 17.0 18.0 12.0 low-min
Shaun Ackerman PG nan nan nan 11.0 12.0 17.0 10.0
Jimmy McGhie PF nan nan nan 2.0 6.0 13.0 13.0
Rotation players (15+ MPG) below league-avg spacing: 2
Total minutes played by below-avg spacers: 4797
Worst spacing offenders (15+ MPG, below league-avg):
- Kaimyn Fry Spacing 2.0 (-9.4 vs avg) MPG 31.2 Total Min 2402
- Tyrae Lewis Spacing 10.0 (-1.4 vs avg) MPG 30.7 Total Min 2395
Denver vs League spacing distribution (rotation players, 15+ MPG):
Denver: mean=13.5 median=16.0 min=2 max=19 stdev=6.6
League: mean=11.4 median=12.0 min=1 max=20 stdev=5.2
====================================================================================================
SECTION 6: DENVER'S OFFENSIVE GAPS VS ELITE (BY POSITION)
====================================================================================================
Minutes-weighted offensive ratings: Denver vs Top-5 offensive teams.
Sorted by deficit (biggest gaps first). Focus on top-5 win-correlated offensive skills.
--- PG OFFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap WinCorr
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking / Spacing 12.05 15.83 -3.78 -0.007 ***
creation / Self-Creation 13.54 17.06 -3.52 +0.026
playmaking / Playmaking 13.10 16.36 -3.26 +0.138
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 11.95 14.84 -2.89 +0.059
shooting / Inside Shooting 14.49 17.14 -2.65 +0.072 ***
execution / Post Execution 2.51 4.73 -2.21 +0.297
execution / Basketball IQ 14.54 16.67 -2.13 -0.189
creation / Foul Drawing 12.08 13.77 -1.69 +0.416
playmaking / Ball Handling 16.51 18.03 -1.52 +0.017 ***
shooting / Free Throws 14.46 15.96 -1.50 +0.139
creation / Ball Dominance 11.44 12.63 -1.19 +0.062
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.05 16.82 -0.77 +0.014
creation / Finishing 14.46 14.91 -0.45 -0.163
playmaking / Passing 17.51 17.77 -0.26 -0.071
playmaking / Gravity 16.02 16.11 -0.08 -0.060
execution / Isolation Execution 15.51 15.27 +0.24 -0.045
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 15.51 14.46 +1.06 -0.272
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 15.54 12.04 +3.49 -0.464
*** = gap > 1.0 in a top-5 win-correlated offensive skill
--- SG OFFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap WinCorr
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
execution / Isolation Execution 0.00 18.80 -18.80 -0.045
shooting / Inside Shooting 0.00 17.19 -17.19 +0.072 ***
creation / Foul Drawing 0.00 16.64 -16.64 +0.416
shooting / Free Throws 0.00 16.54 -16.54 +0.139
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 0.00 16.41 -16.41 -0.464
playmaking / Spacing 0.00 16.03 -16.03 -0.007 ***
creation / Self-Creation 0.00 15.96 -15.96 +0.026
execution / Basketball IQ 0.00 15.89 -15.89 -0.189
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 0.00 15.70 -15.70 +0.059
playmaking / Gravity 0.00 15.68 -15.68 -0.060
shooting / 3PT Shooting 0.00 15.60 -15.60 +0.014 ***
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 0.00 15.59 -15.59 -0.272 ***
playmaking / Passing 0.00 14.87 -14.87 -0.071
playmaking / Ball Handling 0.00 14.74 -14.74 +0.017 ***
creation / Finishing 0.00 14.72 -14.72 -0.163
creation / Ball Dominance 0.00 14.49 -14.49 +0.062
playmaking / Playmaking 0.00 12.69 -12.69 +0.138
execution / Post Execution 0.00 6.03 -6.03 +0.297
*** = gap > 1.0 in a top-5 win-correlated offensive skill
--- SF OFFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap WinCorr
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking / Passing 9.00 14.12 -5.12 -0.071
playmaking / Playmaking 9.00 14.02 -5.02 +0.138
creation / Ball Dominance 11.00 15.91 -4.91 +0.062
creation / Foul Drawing 12.00 14.88 -2.88 +0.416
execution / Post Execution 2.00 4.60 -2.60 +0.297
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 14.00 16.35 -2.35 +0.059
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 11.00 12.86 -1.86 -0.272 ***
creation / Finishing 16.00 17.48 -1.48 -0.163
playmaking / Gravity 17.00 17.47 -0.47 -0.060
shooting / Free Throws 16.00 16.41 -0.41 +0.139
execution / Isolation Execution 16.00 15.53 +0.47 -0.045
shooting / 3PT Shooting 19.00 17.60 +1.40 +0.014
playmaking / Spacing 19.00 17.54 +1.46 -0.007
playmaking / Ball Handling 18.00 16.09 +1.91 +0.017
shooting / Inside Shooting 18.00 15.75 +2.25 +0.072
creation / Self-Creation 19.00 16.74 +2.26 +0.026
execution / Basketball IQ 20.00 13.62 +6.38 -0.189
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 18.00 10.19 +7.81 -0.464
*** = gap > 1.0 in a top-5 win-correlated offensive skill
--- PF OFFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap WinCorr
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking / Playmaking 8.12 12.45 -4.34 +0.138
creation / Foul Drawing 7.97 12.13 -4.16 +0.416
execution / Post Execution 3.54 7.44 -3.90 +0.297
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 9.00 12.70 -3.70 +0.059
creation / Finishing 11.40 14.18 -2.79 -0.163
creation / Self-Creation 11.91 14.65 -2.74 +0.026
playmaking / Gravity 12.54 15.11 -2.56 -0.060
shooting / Free Throws 12.54 15.06 -2.52 +0.139
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.37 14.12 -0.75 -0.272
creation / Ball Dominance 13.91 14.28 -0.36 +0.062
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.40 10.47 -0.07 +0.017
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.51 16.50 +0.02 +0.072
shooting / 3PT Shooting 17.00 15.88 +1.12 +0.014
execution / Isolation Execution 15.91 14.32 +1.59 -0.045
execution / Basketball IQ 16.54 14.89 +1.65 -0.189
playmaking / Passing 15.49 12.83 +2.66 -0.071
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 11.94 8.58 +3.36 -0.464
playmaking / Spacing 18.00 12.18 +5.82 -0.007
*** = gap > 1.0 in a top-5 win-correlated offensive skill
--- C OFFENSIVE PROFILE ---
Rating Denver Top5 Gap WinCorr
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking / Playmaking 2.00 10.66 -8.66 +0.138
playmaking / Passing 4.00 12.40 -8.40 -0.071
shooting / 3PT Shooting 4.00 11.77 -7.77 +0.014 ***
playmaking / Gravity 7.00 13.50 -6.50 -0.060
execution / Isolation Execution 6.00 10.97 -4.97 -0.045
creation / Ball Dominance 9.00 13.82 -4.82 +0.062
playmaking / Spacing 2.00 6.66 -4.66 -0.007 ***
playmaking / Ball Handling 6.00 8.72 -2.72 +0.017 ***
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 10.00 12.03 -2.03 -0.272 ***
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.00 17.40 -1.40 +0.072 ***
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 6.00 6.02 -0.02 -0.464
creation / Foul Drawing 16.00 15.62 +0.38 +0.416
creation / Self-Creation 14.00 13.04 +0.96 +0.026
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 10.00 8.47 +1.53 +0.059
shooting / Free Throws 14.00 12.35 +1.65 +0.139
execution / Basketball IQ 19.00 15.11 +3.89 -0.189
execution / Post Execution 16.00 12.08 +3.92 +0.297
creation / Finishing 19.00 14.15 +4.85 -0.163
*** = gap > 1.0 in a top-5 win-correlated offensive skill
--- SUMMARY: DENVER'S TOP OFFENSIVE PRIORITIES ---
Pos Rating Gap WinCorr Denver Top5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SG shooting / Inside Shooting -17.19 +0.072 0.00 17.19
SG playmaking / Spacing -16.03 -0.007 0.00 16.03
SG shooting / 3PT Shooting -15.60 +0.014 0.00 15.60
SG execution / Pick & Roll Execution -15.59 -0.272 0.00 15.59
SG playmaking / Ball Handling -14.74 +0.017 0.00 14.74
C shooting / 3PT Shooting -7.77 +0.014 4.00 11.77
C playmaking / Spacing -4.66 -0.007 2.00 6.66
PG playmaking / Spacing -3.78 -0.007 12.05 15.83
C playmaking / Ball Handling -2.72 +0.017 6.00 8.72
PG shooting / Inside Shooting -2.65 +0.072 14.49 17.14
C execution / Pick & Roll Execution -2.03 -0.272 10.00 12.03
SF execution / Pick & Roll Execution -1.86 -0.272 11.00 12.86
PG playmaking / Ball Handling -1.52 +0.017 16.51 18.03
C shooting / Inside Shooting -1.40 +0.072 16.00 17.40
PG shooting / 3PT Shooting -0.77 +0.014 16.05 16.82
PF execution / Pick & Roll Execution -0.75 -0.272 13.37 14.12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\12_offensive_units.txt
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
13
Team Classification
====================================================================================================
13 - TEAM CLASSIFICATION
====================================================================================================
Methodology:
- Contender: win_pct >= 65%
- Playoff: win_pct >= 50% and < 65%
- Developing: win_pct < 50% AND (young_core >= 2 OR pa_ca_gap >= 0.8)
- Tanking: win_pct < 50% AND young_core < 2 AND pa_ca_gap < 0.8
- Young core: age <= 25, Peak Ability >= 4.0, 15+ MPG
- Veteran core: age >= 28, Current Ability >= 3.5, 15+ MPG
- All Current Ability/Peak Ability/age metrics are minutes-weighted (total min = MPG x GP, min 10 GP)
- Peak development age: ~29 (confirmed by data analysis)
Classification Summary:
Contender: 7 teams
Playoff: 27 teams
Developing: 2 teams
Tanking: 0 teams
Denver: Developing
====================================================================================================
SECTION 1: TEAM CLASSIFICATION
====================================================================================================
Rk Team W-L Win% WtCA MaxCA WtAge Gap YCore Vets Top Scorer Tier
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Austin Rockets 62-28 0.689 4.24 5.0 26.1 -0.84 1 5 Briggs Greenaw (22.1) Contender
2 Las Vegas Scorpions 65-31 0.677 4.43 5.0 25.2 -0.84 6 3 Zaire Phifer (19.4) Contender
3 St Louis Skyhawks 56-27 0.675 3.94 5.0 22.9 -0.22 4 2 Jahda Carlisle (22.4) Contender
4 Cleveland Giants 63-31 0.670 4.34 5.0 25.9 -0.89 2 4 Ishaq Osten (18.9) Contender
5 Nashville Stars 54-29 0.651 3.57 4.5 23.3 -0.28 3 1 Kaan Korkmaz (14.7) Contender
6 Atlanta Devils 54-29 0.651 3.65 5.0 22.6 -0.28 3 1 Semisi Rautins (18.3) Contender
7 Houston Lightning 54-29 0.651 3.79 4.5 25.5 -0.71 0 4 Eckhard Schnei (16.7) Contender
8 Miami Cyclones 53-30 0.639 4.46 5.0 26.4 -1.25 1 4 Ervin Rhinehar (19.7) Playoff
9 Portland Lumberjacks 56-33 0.629 4.32 5.0 24.9 -0.90 2 3 Kylan Cassier (23.6) Playoff
10 Chicago Jailbirds 66-39 0.629 4.66 5.0 26.2 -0.54 2 4 Javar Bonham (19.2) Playoff
11 Toronto Huskies 52-31 0.627 3.58 5.0 22.1 +0.37 4 1 Jarrett Suther (19.2) Playoff
12 Kansas City Knights 64-39 0.621 4.77 5.0 25.3 -0.93 3 1 Kavian Hawes (22.0) Playoff
13 Dallas Predators 51-32 0.614 4.11 5.0 22.2 -0.21 4 1 Keshaun Freema (20.7) Playoff
14 Washington Pilots 51-32 0.614 4.37 5.0 28.2 -1.68 0 5 Kalen Smart (16.5) Playoff
15 San Diego Calaveras 51-32 0.614 3.66 4.5 21.2 +0.16 4 0 Jamaine Curry (17.6) Playoff
16 Salt Lake City Saints 51-32 0.614 4.36 5.0 23.7 -0.85 2 1 Kahlil Justice (20.4) Playoff
17 Minneapolis Blizzards 55-35 0.611 4.34 5.0 26.0 -0.93 1 4 Tyree Bruner (23.3) Playoff
18 Cincinnati Kings 62-40 0.608 4.39 5.0 29.9 -0.98 1 7 Stephon Carlto (18.5) Playoff
19 New York Renegades 50-33 0.602 4.24 5.0 26.6 -0.91 1 4 Stephan Rayner (28.4) Playoff
20 Phoenix Vultures 50-33 0.602 3.92 5.0 23.8 -0.40 4 2 DJ McCants (21.5) Playoff
21 Los Angeles Fireballs 51-34 0.600 4.30 5.0 25.1 -0.41 2 3 Cedric Rodgers (30.0) Playoff
22 Indiana Stonecutters 49-34 0.590 4.12 5.0 21.9 -0.44 3 1 Quantez Frankl (17.3) Playoff
23 Charlotte Drones 50-35 0.588 4.34 5.0 24.3 -0.13 3 2 Stanley Ogide (20.7) Playoff
24 Louisville Colonels 57-40 0.588 4.53 5.0 25.1 -0.94 3 1 Andre Wright (19.2) Playoff
25 Boston Crusaders 52-37 0.584 4.13 5.0 25.4 -0.34 2 1 Talis Kalemba (18.8) Playoff
26 Oakland Tritons 48-35 0.578 3.97 5.0 22.1 +0.12 6 0 Marcus Pendlet (23.4) Playoff
27 Vancouver Wolves 55-41 0.573 4.71 5.0 28.3 -0.66 0 5 Sergio Ortuño (20.7) Playoff
28 Seattle Thunder 61-46 0.570 4.59 5.0 28.4 -0.92 0 6 Derrick Lynch (32.3) Playoff
29 Detroit Mustangs 50-39 0.562 4.51 5.0 26.7 -0.59 3 3 Jason Cheaney (28.2) Playoff
30 Oklahoma City Barons 50-40 0.556 4.38 5.0 29.1 -0.97 0 7 Marco De Luca (22.0) Playoff
31 Philadelphia Warriors 50-40 0.556 4.44 5.0 27.8 -0.99 1 4 CJ LaCruz (27.1) Playoff
32 Mexico City Jaguars 46-37 0.554 4.30 5.0 26.8 -1.15 0 4 Cole Kopelani (16.4) Playoff
33 Baltimore Bullets 49-40 0.551 4.61 5.0 25.5 -0.77 2 3 Nicolas Deprez (24.4) Playoff
34 New Orleans Hurricanes 42-42 0.500 4.42 5.0 26.1 -0.80 4 5 Johari Whitake (21.8) Playoff
35 Pittsburgh Vipers 41-42 0.494 3.55 4.5 25.2 -0.56 3 3 Brandon Arenas (25.9) Developing
36 Denver Dragons 29-53 0.354 4.25 5.0 23.6 -0.44 3 1 Pedro Santos (16.7) Developing <--
====================================================================================================
SECTION 2: TIER SUMMARIES
====================================================================================================
--- CONTENDER (7 teams) ---
Championship-caliber (high win%, high Current Ability, proven roster)
Team W-L Win% WtCA WtAge Gap YCore Salary
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Austin Rockets 62-28 0.689 4.24 26.1 -0.84 1 $139.1M
Las Vegas Scorpions 65-31 0.677 4.43 25.2 -0.84 6 $149.7M
St Louis Skyhawks 56-27 0.675 3.94 22.9 -0.22 4 $116.1M
Cleveland Giants 63-31 0.670 4.34 25.9 -0.89 2 $148.1M
Atlanta Devils 54-29 0.651 3.65 22.6 -0.28 3 $98.4M
Houston Lightning 54-29 0.651 3.79 25.5 -0.71 0 $107.4M
Nashville Stars 54-29 0.651 3.57 23.3 -0.28 3 $87.9M
Tier Avg: Win% 0.666, Current Ability 3.99, Age 24.5, Peak-Current Ability Gap -0.58, Young Core 2.7
--- PLAYOFF (27 teams) ---
Competitive but not title favorites
Team W-L Win% WtCA WtAge Gap YCore Salary
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Miami Cyclones 53-30 0.639 4.46 26.4 -1.25 1 $131.8M
Portland Lumberjacks 56-33 0.629 4.32 24.9 -0.90 2 $131.4M
Chicago Jailbirds 66-39 0.629 4.66 26.2 -0.54 2 $149.6M
Toronto Huskies 52-31 0.627 3.58 22.1 +0.37 4 $100.1M
Kansas City Knights 64-39 0.621 4.77 25.3 -0.93 3 $149.8M
Salt Lake City Saints 51-32 0.614 4.36 23.7 -0.85 2 $109.8M
Dallas Predators 51-32 0.614 4.11 22.2 -0.21 4 $103.7M
Washington Pilots 51-32 0.614 4.37 28.2 -1.68 0 $131.1M
San Diego Calaveras 51-32 0.614 3.66 21.2 +0.16 4 $80.8M
Minneapolis Blizzards 55-35 0.611 4.34 26.0 -0.93 1 $144.6M
Cincinnati Kings 62-40 0.608 4.39 29.9 -0.98 1 $148.8M
New York Renegades 50-33 0.602 4.24 26.6 -0.91 1 $114.9M
Phoenix Vultures 50-33 0.602 3.92 23.8 -0.40 4 $121.2M
Los Angeles Fireballs 51-34 0.600 4.30 25.1 -0.41 2 $134.7M
Indiana Stonecutters 49-34 0.590 4.12 21.9 -0.44 3 $94.0M
Charlotte Drones 50-35 0.588 4.34 24.3 -0.13 3 $136.2M
Louisville Colonels 57-40 0.588 4.53 25.1 -0.94 3 $146.9M
Boston Crusaders 52-37 0.584 4.13 25.4 -0.34 2 $144.1M
Oakland Tritons 48-35 0.578 3.97 22.1 +0.12 6 $122.0M
Vancouver Wolves 55-41 0.573 4.71 28.3 -0.66 0 $150.0M
Seattle Thunder 61-46 0.570 4.59 28.4 -0.92 0 $149.8M
Detroit Mustangs 50-39 0.562 4.51 26.7 -0.59 3 $148.7M
Oklahoma City Barons 50-40 0.556 4.38 29.1 -0.97 0 $150.0M
Philadelphia Warriors 50-40 0.556 4.44 27.8 -0.99 1 $150.0M
Mexico City Jaguars 46-37 0.554 4.30 26.8 -1.15 0 $115.5M
Baltimore Bullets 49-40 0.551 4.61 25.5 -0.77 2 $146.7M
New Orleans Hurricanes 42-42 0.500 4.42 26.1 -0.80 4 $148.8M
Tier Avg: Win% 0.592, Current Ability 4.32, Age 25.5, Peak-Current Ability Gap -0.67, Young Core 2.1
--- DEVELOPING (2 teams) ---
Young core building toward future (high Peak-Current Ability gap or strong young talent)
Team W-L Win% WtCA WtAge Gap YCore Salary
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh Vipers 41-42 0.494 3.55 25.2 -0.56 3 $132.7M
Denver Dragons 29-53 0.354 4.25 23.6 -0.44 3 $134.5M <--
Tier Avg: Win% 0.424, Current Ability 3.90, Age 24.4, Peak-Current Ability Gap -0.50, Young Core 3.0
--- TANKING (0 teams) ---
Poor results, no clear young core or too old to develop
(No teams in this tier)
====================================================================================================
SECTION 3: TRADE LANDSCAPE BY TIER
====================================================================================================
--- CONTENDER TRADE LANDSCAPE (7 teams) ---
BUYERS: Looking for win-now rentals. Will overpay for proven vets.
Potential trade partners for Denver to sell expiring vets / picks.
Notable Expiring / Available Players:
Name Team Pos Age CurA Salary Yrs Option
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Semisi Rautins Atlanta Devils PF 20 5.0 $5.5M 1 Team Option
Scoochie Hope Atlanta Devils PG 27 5.0 $5.5M 1 None
Cardez Moss Austin Rockets PF 29 5.0 $35.0M 1 None
Ishaq Osten Cleveland Giants PF 23 5.0 $25.0M 1 Player Option
Xavi Rivilla Cleveland Giants C 26 5.0 $10.0M 1 None
Zaire Phifer Las Vegas Scorpions SF 24 5.0 $30.0M 1 Player Option
Tanner Mitchell Las Vegas Scorpions C 20 5.0 $2.8M 1 None
Conner Pearson St Louis Skyhawks C 30 5.0 $12.2M 1 Team Option
Tier totals: 66 expiring contracts, $490.3M in expiring salary
--- PLAYOFF TRADE LANDSCAPE (27 teams) ---
FLEX: Could buy or sell depending on deadline situation.
May deal future assets for a push, or sell aging vets if things go sideways.
Notable Expiring / Available Players:
Name Team Pos Age CurA Salary Yrs Option
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marcel Richter Baltimore Bullets C 29 5.0 $30.0M 1 Player Option
Jarquez Gowins Baltimore Bullets C 25 5.0 $13.5M 1 None
Andre Sawyer Baltimore Bullets C 24 5.0 $17.5M 1 None
Stefan Ramos Charlotte Drones PF 26 5.0 $30.0M 2 Player Option
Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds C 28 5.0 $30.0M 2 Player Option
Terrence Swan Louisville Colonels PG 27 5.0 $25.0M 1 Player Option
Ellis Kennedy Louisville Colonels C 27 5.0 $3.2M 1 None
Demetrice Davis Indiana Stonecutters PG 29 5.0 $10.0M 1 Team Option
Tier totals: 233 expiring contracts, $1978.1M in expiring salary
--- DEVELOPING TRADE LANDSCAPE (2 teams) ---
SELLERS: Willing to move veterans for picks and young talent.
Natural trade partners for Denver to acquire undervalued pieces.
Notable Expiring / Available Players:
Name Team Pos Age CurA Salary Yrs Option
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pedro Santos Denver Dragons PF 22 5.0 $25.0M 1 None
Garrick Jurkin Denver Dragons PF 30 5.0 $27.5M 1 None
Kel Pendergast Denver Dragons SF 24 4.5 $19.0M 1 None
Robert Alcegaire Denver Dragons C 28 4.5 $6.0M 1 None
Mustapha Efianayi Pittsburgh Vipers SF 30 4.5 $20.0M 1 Player Option
John Ford Denver Dragons PF 30 4.0 $3.2M 1 None
LaMarcus Quinn Denver Dragons PG 21 3.5 $4.6M 1 Team Option
Tyrique Beaudean Denver Dragons PG 24 3.5 $3.4M 1 None
Tier totals: 15 expiring contracts, $158.2M in expiring salary
--- TANKING TRADE LANDSCAPE (0 teams) ---
FIRE SALE: Most likely sellers. Want any future assets.
Best source for acquiring talent at discount (salary dumps, pick swaps).
(No notable available players found)
Tier totals: 0 expiring contracts, $0.0M in expiring salary
====================================================================================================
SECTION 4: DENVER'S POSITION IN THE LANDSCAPE
====================================================================================================
Classification: Developing
Classification Reasoning:
- Win%: 0.354 (29-53)
- Minutes-Weighted Current Ability: 4.25
- Peak-Current Ability Gap: -0.44
- Young Core Score: 3 (age <= 25, Peak Ability >= 4.0, 15+ MPG)
- Veteran Score: 1 (age >= 28, Current Ability >= 3.5, 15+ MPG)
Natural Trade Partners:
- Contenders: sell them rentals/vets for picks and young talent
* Austin Rockets (62-28)
* Las Vegas Scorpions (65-31)
* St Louis Skyhawks (56-27)
* Cleveland Giants (63-31)
* Atlanta Devils (54-29)
* Houston Lightning (54-29)
* Nashville Stars (54-29)
Competitive Timeline Projection:
Core Players (15+ MPG):
Name Pos Age CurA PkA MPG Peak~29
------------------------------------------------------------
Garrick Jurkin PF 31 5.0 3.5 31.5 PAST
Kaimyn Fry C 23 4.0 3.0 31.2 in 6yr
LaMarcus Quinn PG 22 3.5 3.5 30.7 in 7yr
Tyrae Lewis PG 21 3.5 5.0 30.7 in 8yr
Pedro Santos PF 23 5.0 4.5 29.7 in 6yr
Kel Pendergast SF 25 4.5 4.0 16.7 in 4yr
Young core avg age (entering 2050): 22.8
Estimated competitive window: 2050 + 4 = ~2054
Estimated peak year: ~2056
Core avg age entering 2050: 24.2
Core avg Peak-Current Ability gap: -0.33
====================================================================================================
SECTION 5: COMPETITIVE BALANCE ANALYSIS
====================================================================================================
Win Percentage Distribution (2049):
Mean: 0.597
Median: 0.605
Std Dev: 0.061
Min: 0.354 (Denver Dragons)
Max: 0.689 (Austin Rockets)
Range: 0.335
Q1 (25th pct): 0.572
Q3 (75th pct): 0.629
IQR: 0.057
Verdict: COMPRESSED — league is relatively balanced
Salary vs Win%: r = -0.229 (p = 0.1797)
=> Weak correlation: spending alone doesn't drive wins
Minutes-Weighted Current Ability vs Win%: r = -0.125 (p = 0.4693)
=> Weak correlation: Current Ability alone is a poor predictor (fit matters more)
Over/Underperformers (Win% vs Expected from Current Ability):
Top 5 Overperformers (winning more than talent suggests):
Team Win% Exp Resid WtCA
-------------------------------------------------------
Austin Rockets 0.689 0.597 +0.092 4.24
Las Vegas Scorpions 0.677 0.592 +0.085 4.43
Cleveland Giants 0.670 0.594 +0.076 4.34
St Louis Skyhawks 0.675 0.603 +0.072 3.94
Miami Cyclones 0.639 0.592 +0.047 4.46
Top 5 Underperformers (winning less than talent suggests):
Team Win% Exp Resid WtCA
-------------------------------------------------------
Denver Dragons 0.354 0.596 -0.242 4.25
Pittsburgh Vipers 0.494 0.612 -0.118 3.55
New Orleans Hurricanes 0.500 0.592 -0.092 4.42
Mexico City Jaguars 0.554 0.595 -0.041 4.30
Oklahoma City Barons 0.556 0.593 -0.037 4.38
Denver: Win% 0.354, Expected 0.596, Residual -0.242
=> Denver is UNDERPERFORMING relative to talent level
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\13_team_classification.txt
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
14
Opponent Overview
==================================================================================================================================
OPPONENT SCOUTING OVERVIEW -- All 35 Opponents
==================================================================================================================================
--- ELITE (65%+ Win Rate) (7 teams) ---
Team Record Win% Off Def Top Player Key Strength Key Weakness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Austin Rockets 62-28 0.689 36 1 Cardez Moss (5.0) shooting / Free Throws rebounding / Offensive Rebo
Las Vegas Scorpions 65-31 0.677 16 11 Zaire Phifer (5.0) playmaking / Spacing defense / Post Defense
St Louis Skyhawks 56-27 0.675 22 5 Roberto Vega (5.0) defense / Off-Ball Defense creation / Shoot Off Dribbl
Cleveland Giants 63-31 0.670 11 8 Xavi Rivilla (5.0) rebounding / Offensive Rebo creation / Shoot Off Dribbl
Nashville Stars 54-29 0.651 34 2 KJ Martin (4.5) defense / Post Defense creation / Shoot Off Dribbl
Houston Lightning 54-29 0.651 11 16 Jordan Goodridge (4.5) execution / Post Execution playmaking / Playmaking
Atlanta Devils 54-29 0.651 14 13 Semisi Rautins (5.0) playmaking / Ball Handling execution / Pick & Roll Exe
--- CONTENDERS (55-64%) (26 teams) ---
Team Record Win% Off Def Top Player Key Strength Key Weakness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Miami Cyclones 53-30 0.639 26 4 Jermaine Clark (5.0) defense / Rim Protection physical / First Step
Chicago Jailbirds 66-39 0.629 2 27 Stanley Amakor (5.0) rebounding / Offensive Rebo physical / Quickness
Portland Lumberjacks 56-33 0.629 14 19 Jimmie Hollimon (5.0) playmaking / Playmaking physical / Strength
Toronto Huskies 52-31 0.627 26 11 Ambrose Udoh (5.0) creation / Foul Drawing defense / Stealing
Kansas City Knights 64-39 0.621 8 33 Kavian Hawes (5.0) physical / Speed creation / Ball Dominance
Dallas Predators 51-32 0.614 21 14 Raekwon Pack (5.0) rebounding / Defensive Rebo playmaking / Playmaking
San Diego Calaveras 51-32 0.614 5 22 Evan McGowan (4.5) playmaking / Playmaking execution / Isolation Execu
Salt Lake City Saints 51-32 0.614 4 34 Quinn Alston (5.0) playmaking / Gravity rebounding / Defensive Rebo
Washington Pilots 51-32 0.614 24 6 Leron Victorian (5.0) creation / Ball Dominance playmaking / Passing
Minneapolis Blizzards 55-35 0.611 10 30 Tyree Bruner (5.0) physical / Strength defense / Post Defense
Cincinnati Kings 62-40 0.608 5 26 Stephon Carlton (5.0) physical / Strength physical / Athleticism
New York Renegades 50-33 0.602 17 15 Khadim Flowers (5.0) creation / Finishing execution / Pick & Roll Exe
Phoenix Vultures 50-33 0.602 29 6 DJ McCants (5.0) playmaking / Gravity playmaking / Spacing
Los Angeles Fireballs 51-34 0.600 3 35 Dion Sowder (5.0) playmaking / Passing physical / Strength
Indiana Stonecutters 49-34 0.590 7 29 Demetrice Davis (5.0) playmaking / Ball Handling execution / Basketball IQ
Louisville Colonels 57-40 0.588 18 20 Tyrone George (5.0) physical / Speed execution / Isolation Execu
Charlotte Drones 50-35 0.588 33 3 Stanley Ogide (5.0) execution / Pick & Roll Exe defense / Post Defense
Boston Crusaders 52-37 0.584 23 18 Lukas Lanmuller (5.0) defense / Post Defense playmaking / Gravity
Oakland Tritons 48-35 0.578 1 36 Daevon Nash (5.0) defense / Post Defense creation / Finishing
Vancouver Wolves 55-41 0.573 9 30 Drake Walter (5.0) physical / Quickness creation / Foul Drawing
Seattle Thunder 61-46 0.570 14 23 Makyi Olanrewaju (5.0) rebounding / Defensive Rebo physical / Strength
Detroit Mustangs 50-39 0.562 28 16 Jason Cheaney Jr (5.0) defense / Stealing physical / Strength
Oklahoma City Barons 50-40 0.556 20 24 Veljko Pavlovic (5.0) creation / Shoot Off Dribbl physical / Quickness
Philadelphia Warriors 50-40 0.556 19 25 Tre Braun (5.0) physical / Strength playmaking / Passing
Mexico City Jaguars 46-37 0.554 31 11 Payton Oyediran (5.0) physical / Strength defense / Stealing
Baltimore Bullets 49-40 0.551 32 8 Nicolas Deprez (5.0) playmaking / Playmaking rebounding / Offensive Rebo
--- FRINGE PLAYOFF (45-54%) (2 teams) ---
Team Record Win% Off Def Top Player Key Strength Key Weakness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Orleans Hurricanes 42-42 0.500 30 21 Johari Whitaker (5.0) creation / Finishing defense / Off-Ball Defense
Pittsburgh Vipers 41-42 0.494 26 27 Horace Hammer (4.5) physical / Strength playmaking / Playmaking
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLUMN KEY:
Off = Offensive rank (PPG scored, 1 = best)
Def = Defensive rank (PPG allowed, 1 = best)
Key Strength = rating with biggest advantage over league average (minutes-weighted)
Key Weakness = rating with biggest deficit vs league average (minutes-weighted)
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_opponent_overview.txt
15
Coach Analysis
====================================================================================================
15 - COACH FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS
====================================================================================================
Data source: coaches_2050.json (fetched 2026-03-19T05:04:45.302289+00:00)
Season: 2050 offseason
Total coaches in database: 108
====================================================================================================
SECTION 1: DENVER STAFF ASSESSMENT
====================================================================================================
Head Coach: Carson Killingsworth
Salary: $8.0M | Years Remaining: 1
Style: Tactician | Philosophy: Balanced
Age: 60 | Experience: 22 yrs
Rating Profile:
Off: 18 Def: 11 Tac: 18 Mot: 17 Pat: 19 Dis: 17
Tmp: 11 Adp: 14 Ldr: 18 Cul: 11 Med: 13
Chem-G: 17 Chem-F: 15 Chem-C: 12 (Avg: 14.7)
Composite: 15.67
------------------------------------------------------------
Assistant Coach: Samuel Rafferty
Salary: $1.0M | Status: 3yr
Style: Instructor | Philosophy: Balanced
Age: 59 | Experience: 27 yrs
Rating Profile:
Off: 11 Def: 15 Tac: 10 Mot: 16 Pat: 17 Dis: 11
Tmp: 11 Adp: 19 Ldr: 13 Cul: 10 Med: 18
Chem-G: 18 Chem-F: 13 Chem-C: 13 (Avg: 14.7)
Composite: 13.52
Assistant Coach: Terence McDuffie
Salary: $1.0M | Status: 3yr
Style: Tactician | Philosophy: Triangle
Age: 46 | Experience: 5 yrs
Rating Profile:
Off: 14 Def: 19 Tac: 13 Mot: 7 Pat: 9 Dis: 9
Tmp: 11 Adp: 9 Ldr: 11 Cul: 7 Med: 12
Chem-G: 9 Chem-F: 14 Chem-C: 11 (Avg: 11.3)
Composite: 12.58
KEY NOTE: Denver needs at least 1 new AC (Rafferty expiring at $0 salary).
May need 2 ACs depending on staff size requirements.
AC salaries are $1M/3yr (fixed). HC salaries are $8M/4yr (fixed).
====================================================================================================
SECTION 2: MARKET OVERVIEW
====================================================================================================
Coaches by Status:
unemployed 0
out_of_contract 0
on_team 108
TOTAL 108
Coaching Styles (all coaches):
Tactician 29 ( 26.9%)
Psychologist 21 ( 19.4%)
Motivator 20 ( 18.5%)
Disciplinarian 19 ( 17.6%)
Instructor 19 ( 17.6%)
Coaching Philosophies (all coaches):
Balanced 37 ( 34.3%)
Pace & Space 22 ( 20.4%)
Morey Ball 19 ( 17.6%)
Post Centric 10 ( 9.3%)
Seven Seconds 7 ( 6.5%)
Triangle 6 ( 5.6%)
Grit & Grind 4 ( 3.7%)
Perimeter Centric 3 ( 2.8%)
Average Ratings by Experience Tier:
Tier Count Off Def Tac Mot Dis Adp Ldr ChAvg
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Rookie (0) 12 12.8 14.7 14.2 11.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.7
1-5 yrs 26 13.7 14.0 12.3 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.9 11.8
6-15 yrs 20 14.4 12.5 13.9 13.1 12.9 13.2 13.0 14.2
16+ yrs 50 14.8 12.4 13.9 13.7 13.9 14.7 13.6 15.0
Available Coaches (unemployed + out_of_contract): 0
Styles:
Philosophies:
====================================================================================================
SECTION 3: TOP AVAILABLE ASSISTANT COACHES (RANKED)
====================================================================================================
All unemployed + out-of-contract coaches ranked by composite score.
Composite weights: Def 20%, Off 15%, Tac 15%, Mot 10%, Dis 10%, Adp 10%, ChAvg 10%, Ldr 10%
Defense weighted highest -- Denver ranks 22/36 in points allowed.
Rk Name Age Exp Style Philosophy Comp Off Def Tac Mot Adp ChAv
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total available: 0 coaches
====================================================================================================
SECTION 4: PHILOSOPHY-FILTERED RANKINGS
====================================================================================================
Top 10 available coaches filtered by Denver-relevant philosophies.
--- PACE & SPACE (0 available) ---
No available coaches with this philosophy.
--- MOREY BALL (0 available) ---
No available coaches with this philosophy.
--- BALANCED (0 available) ---
No available coaches with this philosophy.
====================================================================================================
SECTION 5: POACHABLE TEAM ASSISTANTS
====================================================================================================
Top 15 assistant coaches currently on other teams, ranked by composite.
NOTE: These can only be poached for HEAD COACHING positions, not AC positions.
Rk Name Team Age Exp Style Philosophy Comp Off Def Tac
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Wesley Mayhew Jailbirds 34 0 Instructor Perimeter Centric 16.02 15 15 16
2 Louis Merton Barons 71 27 Psychologist Post Centric 14.92 18 13 13
3 Isaac Brown Stars 44 5 Instructor Morey Ball 14.55 11 16 14
4 Toliver Cannady Knights 65 23 Motivator Pace & Space 14.47 19 11 11
5 Michael Petrovski Vultures 73 33 Tactician Triangle 14.45 13 13 20
6 Brian Oliver Scorpions 66 28 Tactician Grit & Grind 14.40 11 16 17
7 Jeff Gumm Blizzards 64 24 Disciplinarian Balanced 14.23 12 17 12
8 Denzell Sparks Devils 41 3 Psychologist Grit & Grind 14.22 13 17 14
9 Cassius Tyson Mustangs 49 10 Motivator Balanced 14.12 15 8 12
10 Clyde Burrell Calaveras 36 0 Disciplinarian Post Centric 14.10 15 13 13
11 Pat Elashari-Rashed Kings 57 23 Psychologist Post Centric 14.10 18 14 12
12 Mirko Blazevic Vultures 52 15 Motivator Post Centric 14.07 16 13 10
13 Tyrae Webster Kings 34 0 Tactician Morey Ball 13.80 14 18 16
14 Zeke Stephens Pilots 29 0 Tactician Balanced 13.78 16 15 15
15 Ray Segwai Lightning 71 23 Psychologist Pace & Space 13.73 15 13 15
Total on-team assistants: 72
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\15_coach_analysis.txt
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
16
Hidden Ratings
====================================================================================================
16 - HIDDEN RATING IMPACT & PERFORMANCE RESIDUALS
====================================================================================================
Hidden ratings (Clutch, Consistency, Positioning, Durability, Turnover Proneness)
have roughly equal impact on winning as visible ratings. This report uses a
player-level Ridge regression (Win Shares per 48 Min ~ 32 visible ratings) to estimate each
player's expected performance. The residual (actual - predicted) proxies the
net effect of hidden ratings and system fit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: RIDGE MODEL (Win Shares per 48 Min ~ 32 Visible Ratings)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Players: 350 with 20+ games and complete ratings
Ridge alpha: 1.0
R = 0.569, R-squared = 0.323
Intercept = 0.0991
Top 15 Ridge Coefficients (standardized):
Rating Coef
-------------------------------------------------------
creation / Foul Drawing +0.0118
execution / Post Execution +0.0115
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding +0.0109
execution / Pick & Roll Execution +0.0101
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense -0.0098
shooting / Free Throws +0.0097
playmaking / Passing +0.0087
creation / Shoot Off Dribble +0.0077
shooting / Inside Shooting +0.0075
playmaking / Playmaking +0.0064
physical / Endurance +0.0063
shooting / 3PT Shooting +0.0055
physical / First Step -0.0051
physical / Quickness +0.0049
execution / Isolation Execution -0.0048
Model captures 32.3% of Win Shares per 48 Min variance from visible ratings alone.
The remaining 67.7% includes hidden ratings, system fit, role, and noise.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: TOP 25 OVERPERFORMERS & BOTTOM 25 UNDERPERFORMERS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overperformers = likely strong hidden ratings (buy targets)
Underperformers = likely weak hidden ratings (sell/avoid targets)
TOP 25 OVERPERFORMERS:
# Player Team Pos CA Actual Pred Resid G Age
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Akani Adekoya Kansas City Knights PG 4.0 0.213 0.095 +0.118 76 25.0
2 Desmond NGanga Seattle Thunder PG 3.5 0.203 0.099 +0.104 75 30.0
3 Jonny Caruthers Kansas City Knights PG 4.5 0.181 0.084 +0.097 71 30.0
4 Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds PG 5.0 0.205 0.114 +0.091 77 24.0
5 Stephon Carlton Cincinnati Kings C 5.0 0.257 0.167 +0.090 82 34.0
6 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons C 5.0 0.263 0.174 +0.089 58 28.0
7 Emanuel Autry Philadelphia Warriors PG 4.5 0.230 0.145 +0.085 74 28.0
8 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings C 4.5 0.215 0.132 +0.083 82 33.0
9 Bryce McAlister Portland Lumberjacks PG 4.0 0.138 0.055 +0.083 82 26.0
10 Dimitris Makryonitis Austin Rockets PF 4.0 0.157 0.075 +0.082 79 32.0
11 Makyi Olanrewaju Seattle Thunder PG 5.0 0.197 0.119 +0.078 74 31.0
12 Ahsante Clinkscales Dallas Predators PG 3.0 0.133 0.059 +0.074 66 20.0
13 Drake Walter Vancouver Wolves PF 5.0 0.177 0.105 +0.072 81 28.0
14 Daniel Cazorla Phoenix Vultures PG 2.5 0.145 0.073 +0.072 81 18.0
15 John Jones Vancouver Wolves PF 5.0 0.165 0.094 +0.071 69 28.0
16 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants SG 3.5 0.198 0.130 +0.068 82 20.0
17 Jean-Jacques Durand Toronto Huskies PG 3.5 0.089 0.021 +0.068 70 24.0
18 Amorrow Puryear Detroit Mustangs C 3.5 0.179 0.113 +0.066 27 24.0
19 Tenzin Ozer Oklahoma City Barons PG 4.0 0.175 0.109 +0.066 82 31.0
20 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds C 5.0 0.204 0.140 +0.064 82 28.0
21 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights C 5.0 0.228 0.164 +0.064 81 24.0
22 Leandro Santoro Charlotte Drones C 3.0 0.115 0.051 +0.064 80 20.0
23 Gage Woodward Chicago Jailbirds PG 4.5 0.202 0.138 +0.064 74 26.0
24 Jacob Nazarian Cincinnati Kings PG 4.5 0.197 0.136 +0.061 76 28.0
25 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants PG 5.0 0.164 0.103 +0.061 81 28.0
BOTTOM 25 UNDERPERFORMERS:
# Player Team Pos CA Actual Pred Resid G Age
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras SG 3.5 -0.048 0.093 -0.141 75 20.0
2 Laurynas Linartas Atlanta Devils SF 4.5 -0.024 0.082 -0.106 33 21.0
3 Bryce Ham Los Angeles Fireballs PF 3.0 -0.007 0.095 -0.102 20 20.0
4 Metehan Keloglu Detroit Mustangs PF 4.5 -0.016 0.085 -0.101 61 29.0
5 Fabian Kendricks Washington Pilots SF 3.5 -0.027 0.074 -0.101 34 21.0
6 Tiago Fernandes Nashville Stars PF 4.0 -0.004 0.093 -0.097 66 23.0
7 Raul Cardona Houston Lightning PF 4.0 -0.002 0.087 -0.089 62 31.0
8 Zavyean Murray San Diego Calaveras SF 3.5 -0.031 0.057 -0.088 82 20.0
9 Kaan Korkmaz Nashville Stars PG 3.5 -0.038 0.048 -0.086 64 22.0
10 Jordan Kingsley Austin Rockets SF 3.5 0.003 0.087 -0.084 70 20.0
11 Kaleb Sterling St Louis Skyhawks PF 3.0 -0.005 0.076 -0.081 82 21.0
12 Kalen Smart Washington Pilots SF 4.0 0.040 0.121 -0.081 82 34.0
13 Jamaine Curry Jr San Diego Calaveras SF 4.5 0.034 0.114 -0.080 46 25.0
14 Jarvis Cannon Oakland Tritons PF 5.0 0.007 0.085 -0.078 77 27.0
15 Mattias Fortt Atlanta Devils PF 3.0 -0.007 0.070 -0.077 67 20.0
16 Garvin Crouch San Diego Calaveras SF 3.0 0.003 0.078 -0.075 65 21.0
17 Demetrice Davis Indiana Stonecutters PG 5.0 0.052 0.127 -0.075 82 29.0
18 Kendrick Atkins Houston Lightning PF 4.0 0.029 0.103 -0.074 41 32.0
19 Andrej Lukic St Louis Skyhawks C 4.0 0.039 0.112 -0.073 82 21.0
20 Quintyn Detrick Washington Pilots PF 4.0 0.029 0.099 -0.070 27 24.0
21 Antoine Daniels Miami Cyclones PF 4.5 0.019 0.088 -0.069 82 32.0
22 Stefan Ramos Charlotte Drones PF 5.0 0.073 0.141 -0.068 80 26.0
23 Joe Beck-Taylor St Louis Skyhawks PF 4.0 0.035 0.103 -0.068 82 29.0
24 Kel Pendergast Denver Dragons SF 4.5 0.025 0.093 -0.068 54 24.0 <-- DEN
25 Emery Glaze Indiana Stonecutters PF 4.0 0.031 0.098 -0.067 68 25.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DENVER ROSTER HIDDEN RATING ASSESSMENT
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Player Pos CA MPG Actual Pred Resid G Verdict
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Devaugntah Litton C 3.0 6.5 0.156 0.056 +0.100 31 STRONG hidden
Kaimyn Fry C 4.0 31.2 0.121 0.090 +0.031 77 STRONG hidden
Robert Alcegaire C 4.5 11.3 0.095 0.064 +0.031 54 STRONG hidden
LaMarcus Quinn PG 3.5 30.7 0.118 0.101 +0.017 82 Likely positive
John Ford PF 4.0 5.5 0.121 0.115 +0.006 31 Neutral
Pedro Santos PF 5.0 29.7 0.047 0.047 +0.000 82 Neutral
Garrick Jurkin PF 5.0 31.5 0.084 0.086 -0.002 82 Neutral
Hudson Leonard SF 5.0 13.6 0.081 0.106 -0.025 49 Likely negative
Tyrae Lewis PG 3.5 30.7 -0.015 0.040 -0.055 78 WEAK hidden
Sebastian Steinbach SG 4.0 0.0 0.054 0.112 -0.058 0 WEAK hidden
Kel Pendergast SF 4.5 16.7 0.025 0.093 -0.068 54 WEAK hidden
Tyrique Beaudean PG 3.5 3.7 -0.066 0.049 -0.115 26 WEAK hidden
Denver avg residual: -0.0114
Players with STRONG hidden ratings: 3
Players with WEAK hidden ratings: 4
Proficiency vs Residual (does system fit explain the gap?):
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: TRADE WATCHLIST ENHANCEMENT -- AGE & CONTRACT OVERLAY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 gap-filling wing targets (non-Denver, non-Top-5 teams)
with hidden rating residual and contract context:
# Player Team Age CA Salary Yrs Option GapFill Resid Signal
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL POSITIONS -- Top 10 by Gap-Fill + Positive Residual:
# Player Team Pos Age CA Salary GapFill Resid
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Andre Griffin Kansas City Knights PF 28 5.0 $27.0M 20.41 +0.033
2 Arif Langston Chicago Jailbirds SF 29 5.0 $6.0M 20.31 +0.058
3 Tayshaun Aumiller Cincinnati Kings PG 24 5.0 $16.2M 20.14 +0.042
4 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons PF 32 4.5 $32.5M 19.83 +0.053
5 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds C 28 5.0 $30.0M 18.94 +0.064
6 Payton Oyediran Mexico City Jaguars PG 28 5.0 $6.0M 18.75 +0.029
7 Jacob Nazarian Cincinnati Kings PG 28 4.5 $27.0M 18.74 +0.061
8 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves PG 29 5.0 $30.8M 16.33 +0.055
9 Lukas Lanmuller Boston Crusaders PG 24 5.0 $30.0M 16.07 +0.061
10 Gage Woodward Chicago Jailbirds PG 26 4.5 $27.0M 15.94 +0.064
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: POSITION-SPECIFIC HIDDEN RATING PATTERNS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--- PG (n=86) ---
Mean residual: +0.0144 | Std: 0.0450
Overperformers (resid > +0.02): 41 (48%)
Underperformers (resid < -0.02): 20 (23%)
Top 5 PG Overperformers:
Akani Adekoya (Kansas City Knights) resid=+0.118 CA=4.0
Desmond NGanga (Seattle Thunder) resid=+0.104 CA=3.5
Jonny Caruthers (Kansas City Knights) resid=+0.097 CA=4.5
Devonte Bell (Chicago Jailbirds) resid=+0.091 CA=5.0
Emanuel Autry (Philadelphia Warrior) resid=+0.085 CA=4.5
Top 5 PG Underperformers:
Kaan Korkmaz (Nashville Stars) resid=-0.086 CA=3.5
Demetrice Davis (Indiana Stonecutters) resid=-0.075 CA=5.0
Jaxson Booker (Atlanta Devils) resid=-0.065 CA=4.0
Klay Scantlebury (Washington Pilots) resid=-0.057 CA=3.0
Jahda Carlisle (St Louis Skyhawks) resid=-0.057 CA=4.0
--- SG (n=18) ---
Mean residual: -0.0039 | Std: 0.0490
Overperformers (resid > +0.02): 6 (33%)
Underperformers (resid < -0.02): 7 (39%)
Top 5 SG Overperformers:
McKinley Power (Cleveland Giants) resid=+0.068 CA=3.5
Adrian Schwartz (Cleveland Giants) resid=+0.056 CA=4.5
Reid Frahm (Cincinnati Kings) resid=+0.051 CA=4.0
Nico Gillespie (Mexico City Jaguars) resid=+0.037 CA=4.0
Jaleel Usher (Oklahoma City Barons) resid=+0.034 CA=4.0
Top 5 SG Underperformers:
Jonas Baumann (San Diego Calaveras) resid=-0.141 CA=3.5
Denzel Cruz (Dallas Predators) resid=-0.050 CA=4.0
Kinard Otero (Nashville Stars) resid=-0.041 CA=3.5
Dimitris Karras (Charlotte Drones) resid=-0.028 CA=4.0
Marcus Pendleton (Oakland Tritons) resid=-0.027 CA=3.0
--- SF (n=39) ---
Mean residual: -0.0252 | Std: 0.0417
Overperformers (resid > +0.02): 5 (13%)
Underperformers (resid < -0.02): 21 (54%)
Top 5 SF Overperformers:
Arif Langston (Chicago Jailbirds) resid=+0.058 CA=5.0
Xavier Yates (Chicago Jailbirds) resid=+0.048 CA=4.5
Cedric Rodgers (Los Angeles Fireball) resid=+0.037 CA=5.0
Arik Mills (Minneapolis Blizzard) resid=+0.035 CA=4.5
Andrew Buller (Cincinnati Kings) resid=+0.030 CA=4.5
Top 5 SF Underperformers:
Laurynas Linartas (Atlanta Devils) resid=-0.106 CA=4.5
Fabian Kendricks (Washington Pilots) resid=-0.101 CA=3.5
Zavyean Murray (San Diego Calaveras) resid=-0.088 CA=3.5
Jordan Kingsley (Austin Rockets) resid=-0.084 CA=3.5
Kalen Smart (Washington Pilots) resid=-0.081 CA=4.0
--- PF (n=96) ---
Mean residual: -0.0118 | Std: 0.0420
Overperformers (resid > +0.02): 23 (24%)
Underperformers (resid < -0.02): 39 (41%)
Top 5 PF Overperformers:
Dimitris Makryonitis (Austin Rockets) resid=+0.082 CA=4.0
Drake Walter (Vancouver Wolves) resid=+0.072 CA=5.0
John Jones (Vancouver Wolves) resid=+0.071 CA=5.0
Marco De Luca (Oklahoma City Barons) resid=+0.053 CA=4.5
Nazir Link (Austin Rockets) resid=+0.052 CA=4.0
Top 5 PF Underperformers:
Bryce Ham (Los Angeles Fireball) resid=-0.102 CA=3.0
Metehan Keloglu (Detroit Mustangs) resid=-0.101 CA=4.5
Tiago Fernandes (Nashville Stars) resid=-0.097 CA=4.0
Raul Cardona (Houston Lightning) resid=-0.089 CA=4.0
Kaleb Sterling (St Louis Skyhawks) resid=-0.081 CA=3.0
--- C (n=111) ---
Mean residual: +0.0085 | Std: 0.0338
Overperformers (resid > +0.02): 47 (42%)
Underperformers (resid < -0.02): 24 (22%)
Top 5 C Overperformers:
Stephon Carlton (Cincinnati Kings) resid=+0.090 CA=5.0
Veljko Pavlovic (Oklahoma City Barons) resid=+0.089 CA=5.0
Russell Boozer (Cincinnati Kings) resid=+0.083 CA=4.5
Amorrow Puryear (Detroit Mustangs) resid=+0.066 CA=3.5
Stanley Amakor (Chicago Jailbirds) resid=+0.064 CA=5.0
Top 5 C Underperformers:
Andrej Lukic (St Louis Skyhawks) resid=-0.073 CA=4.0
Raymone Crockrom (Nashville Stars) resid=-0.066 CA=4.0
Kibret Diew (Pittsburgh Vipers) resid=-0.064 CA=2.5
Javi Gonzalez (Las Vegas Scorpions) resid=-0.058 CA=4.0
Caleb Donovan (Indiana Stonecutters) resid=-0.050 CA=4.5
PROFICIENCY vs RESIDUAL (league-wide, does system fit explain residual?):
====================================================================================================
SUMMARY & KEY TAKEAWAYS
====================================================================================================
Model: Ridge regression (Win Shares per 48 Min ~ 32 ratings), R-sq = 0.323
67.7% of Win Shares per 48 Min variance unexplained = hidden ratings + system fit + noise
Top 3 visible rating predictors of individual WS/48:
creation / Foul Drawing coef = +0.0118
execution / Post Execution coef = +0.0115
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding coef = +0.0109
Denver's best hidden rating signal: Devaugntah Litton (resid +0.100)
Denver's worst hidden rating signal: Tyrique Beaudean (resid -0.115)
Charts saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\16_hidden_ratings.txt
17
Player Impact
========================================================================================================================
JBL PLAYER IMPACT SCORES -- 2049 Season
========================================================================================================================
Methodology: 55% On-Court Impact + 45% Win Model Score (Ridge x 32 ratings)
Minutes confidence: sigmoid (full at 1500+ min, 50% at 500 min)
Scale: 1-100 (50 = league average, 85+ = elite, <30 = replacement level)
LEAGUE PLAYER IMPACT RANKINGS -- Top 50
========================================================================================================================
Rk Player Team Pos GP MPG Impact Off Def OCI WinMdl HidImp Conf
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds C 82 33.5 90 81 81 +7.07 +0.1727 +0.0650 0.999
2 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons C 58 33.1 87 73 75 +6.18 +0.1793 +0.0842 0.986
3 Cole Kopelani Mexico City Jaguars C 41 51.6 86 81 71 +7.46 +0.1190 -0.0348 0.992
4 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights C 81 29.4 85 70 89 +5.67 +0.1828 +0.0754 0.996
5 Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds PG 77 32.8 83 76 73 +6.18 +0.1352 +0.0851 0.998
6 Derrick Lynch Seattle Thunder SF 81 37.6 79 67 83 +3.48 +0.2058 -0.0107 1.000
7 Cedric Rodgers Los Angeles Fireballs SF 57 46.8 78 65 85 +4.77 +0.1372 +0.0311 0.999
8 Demitrius Burns Portland Lumberjacks C 79 29.8 78 54 84 +4.13 +0.1585 +0.0052 0.996
9 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants PG 81 34.4 77 63 84 +5.50 +0.0980 +0.0603 0.999
10 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons PF 80 31.3 76 70 66 +3.04 +0.1912 +0.0555 0.998
11 Austin Ross Baltimore Bullets PF 80 31.6 76 69 73 +3.88 +0.1546 +0.0350 0.998
12 Zaire Phifer Las Vegas Scorpions SF 80 33.1 75 75 56 +2.15 +0.2112 -0.0513 0.998
13 Karim Zouita Boston Crusaders PF 54 33.7 75 68 65 +2.48 +0.2078 -0.0281 0.981
14 Jimmie Hollimon Portland Lumberjacks PF 78 30.1 75 68 65 +2.26 +0.2099 -0.0293 0.996
15 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings C 82 31.0 75 61 79 +4.12 +0.1269 +0.0868 0.998
16 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves PG 82 33.3 75 74 63 +3.64 +0.1534 +0.0501 0.999
17 Sergio Ortuño Vancouver Wolves C 82 32.4 74 65 68 +3.57 +0.1413 +0.0162 0.998
18 JB Winn Minneapolis Blizzards C 82 26.2 73 67 63 +4.50 +0.0912 -0.0267 0.993
19 Waylan Loftin Dallas Predators C 82 28.0 73 63 63 +4.15 +0.1046 -0.0076 0.995
20 Khadim Flowers New York Renegades PF 61 32.7 73 66 76 +3.90 +0.1229 -0.0035 0.989
21 Jimmy Cougar III Cincinnati Kings PF 79 27.8 73 56 78 +3.67 +0.1282 +0.0445 0.994
22 Tre Braun Philadelphia Warriors PF 63 24.3 72 68 64 +1.81 +0.2053 -0.0148 0.956
23 Sylvain Garcia Seattle Thunder PF 81 25.3 72 51 92 +4.66 +0.0739 +0.0095 0.990
24 Dion Sowder Los Angeles Fireballs PF 82 33.4 72 63 71 +1.90 +0.1933 -0.0063 0.999
25 Leon Hawthorne Oklahoma City Barons PF 40 61.7 72 72 60 +3.48 +0.1204 +0.0014 0.997
26 Javar Bonham Chicago Jailbirds C 82 29.0 71 60 65 +2.49 +0.1480 +0.0320 0.996
27 Evan Lieberman Oklahoma City Barons PF 78 31.4 71 66 67 +3.98 +0.0922 +0.0083 0.997
28 Drake Walter Vancouver Wolves PF 81 32.5 71 60 79 +3.56 +0.1115 +0.0706 0.998
29 Lorenzo Wade Seattle Thunder C 80 24.5 70 61 66 +3.79 +0.0858 +0.0172 0.988
30 Paolo Belli Cleveland Giants PG 16 104.6 70 63 67 +2.05 +0.1643 +0.0290 0.971
31 Adonis Walters Mexico City Jaguars PF 56 32.1 70 73 57 +3.57 +0.1024 -0.0256 0.980
32 Cardez Moss Austin Rockets PF 82 34.4 70 61 68 +2.65 +0.1377 +0.0183 0.999
33 Makyi Olanrewaju Seattle Thunder PG 74 35.7 69 60 71 +3.81 +0.0747 +0.0749 0.998
34 Azar Lawton Minneapolis Blizzards PG 81 32.0 68 57 74 +2.16 +0.1376 +0.0127 0.998
35 Lukas Lanmuller Boston Crusaders PG 72 33.8 68 75 47 +2.39 +0.1210 +0.0717 0.997
36 Stanley Ogide Charlotte Drones PF 80 29.6 68 67 61 +1.65 +0.1546 -0.0353 0.996
37 Landon Battier Oakland Tritons C 82 29.8 68 53 76 +2.50 +0.1159 -0.0119 0.997
38 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants SG 75 28.6 67 65 58 +2.94 +0.0910 +0.0509 0.993
39 Dallan Owusu Detroit Mustangs PF 80 29.2 67 51 79 +1.50 +0.1509 -0.0065 0.996
40 Andre Griffin Kansas City Knights PF 76 29.9 67 71 52 +1.57 +0.1494 +0.0353 0.995
41 Javi Gonzalez Las Vegas Scorpions C 82 21.7 67 57 65 +2.41 +0.1113 -0.0659 0.979
42 Mario Moore Baltimore Bullets PG 82 28.2 67 68 57 +3.24 +0.0753 +0.0139 0.996
43 Jamaria Flagg Charlotte Drones PG 82 27.4 67 71 52 +2.15 +0.1178 +0.0248 0.995
44 Marcel Richter Baltimore Bullets C 51 34.8 67 51 73 +2.62 +0.1051 -0.0160 0.979
45 Xavier Lowe Philadelphia Warriors PG 82 30.0 66 75 44 +3.74 +0.0457 +0.0346 0.997
46 Lukáš Vintr Atlanta Devils SF 5 291.4 65 59 59 +1.50 +0.1313 +0.0618 0.946
47 Winslo Barry Seattle Thunder C 32 35.8 65 61 58 +1.40 +0.1492 -0.0225 0.873
48 Dimitris Makryonitis Austin Rockets PF 79 19.7 65 75 44 +3.13 +0.0657 +0.0874 0.960
49 Quinn Alston Salt Lake City Saints PF 40 56.7 65 70 55 +3.15 +0.0652 +0.0285 0.995
50 Nicolas Deprez Baltimore Bullets PF 74 33.9 65 54 73 +0.67 +0.2069 -0.0576 0.998
DENVER DRAGONS -- Player Impact Roster Breakdown
========================================================================================================================
Rk Player Pos GP MPG Impact Off Def OCI WinMdl HidImp Conf CA
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#57 Pedro Santos PF 82 29.7 64 49 81 +2.28 +0.1212 -0.0045 0.997 5.0
#106 Garrick Jurkin PF 82 31.5 59 54 58 -0.03 +0.1278 -0.0073 0.998 5.0
#150 Kel Pendergast SF 54 16.7 55 52 53 -0.37 +0.1124 -0.0492 0.770 4.5
#164 Hudson Leonard SF 49 13.6 54 55 47 +0.07 +0.0945 -0.0233 0.622 5.0
#213 John Ford PF 31 5.5 51 49 50 -0.07 +0.0552 +0.0046 0.270 4.0
#260 Devaugntah Litton C 31 6.5 48 49 48 +1.06 -0.0993 +0.0876 0.290 3.0
#312 Robert Alcegaire C 54 11.3 45 43 49 -0.04 -0.0800 +0.0308 0.582 4.5
#345 Tyrique Beaudean PG 26 3.7 43 44 49 -1.63 +0.0100 -0.1137 0.229 3.5
#374 LaMarcus Quinn PG 82 30.7 39 45 37 -1.68 -0.0253 +0.0217 0.998 3.5
#392 Kaimyn Fry C 77 31.2 35 30 47 -1.78 -0.0688 +0.0348 0.997 4.0
#428 Tyrae Lewis PG 78 30.7 24 28 41 -3.68 -0.1121 -0.0655 0.997 3.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver Average Impact: 47.0 (League avg: 50)
TOP 15 PGS BY IMPACT (500+ min)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG Impact Off Def
1 Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds 77 32.8 83 76 73
2 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants 81 34.4 77 63 84
3 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves 82 33.3 75 74 63
4 Paolo Belli Cleveland Giants 16 104.6 70 63 67
5 Makyi Olanrewaju Seattle Thunder 74 35.7 69 60 71
6 Azar Lawton Minneapolis Blizzards 81 32.0 68 57 74
7 Lukas Lanmuller Boston Crusaders 72 33.8 68 75 47
8 Mario Moore Baltimore Bullets 82 28.2 67 68 57
9 Jamaria Flagg Charlotte Drones 82 27.4 67 71 52
10 Xavier Lowe Philadelphia Warriors 82 30.0 66 75 44
11 Jonny Caruthers Kansas City Knights 71 12.2 65 66 53
12 Ish Hampton Dallas Predators 77 16.3 63 69 52
13 T.J. Kyungu Oakland Tritons 70 19.5 63 61 58
14 Nyika Nnamoko Minneapolis Blizzards 82 27.7 62 67 53
15 Mandela Osayande Mexico City Jaguars 82 33.4 62 73 42
TOP 15 SGS BY IMPACT (500+ min)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG Impact Off Def
1 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 75 28.6 67 65 58
2 Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 81 31.8 63 74 40
3 Damjan Nemanič Los Angeles Fireballs 81 21.6 61 62 52
4 Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs 77 21.1 60 59 55
5 Reid Frahm Cincinnati Kings 82 15.9 58 73 37
6 Jade Ahelegbe St Louis Skyhawks 74 17.4 55 63 39
7 Aidan Clark Las Vegas Scorpions 82 9.0 55 58 46
8 Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Saints 64 13.8 54 64 37
9 Daevon Nash Oakland Tritons 82 31.7 54 56 49
10 Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 60 30.3 53 56 49
11 Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 9 122.7 48 53 45
12 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants 82 13.9 47 61 30
13 Deandre Patterson Detroit Mustangs 56 19.0 46 52 41
14 Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars 82 13.4 46 49 44
15 Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 80 27.0 45 60 28
TOP 15 SFS BY IMPACT (500+ min)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG Impact Off Def
1 Derrick Lynch Seattle Thunder 81 37.6 79 67 83
2 Cedric Rodgers Los Angeles Fireballs 57 46.8 78 65 85
3 Zaire Phifer Las Vegas Scorpions 80 33.1 75 75 56
4 Lukáš Vintr Atlanta Devils 5 291.4 65 59 59
5 Willie Bennett Las Vegas Scorpions 82 23.0 62 61 53
6 Marcus Hayes Minneapolis Blizzards 82 15.9 61 60 54
7 Jamaine Curry Jr San Diego Calaveras 46 31.4 60 65 51
8 Mustapha Efianayi Pittsburgh Vipers 78 26.7 60 58 52
9 Arif Langston Chicago Jailbirds 82 24.1 58 55 60
10 Mahmoud Abdur-Rahman New Orleans Hurricanes 69 18.1 56 62 44
11 Briggs Greenaway Austin Rockets 82 34.3 55 56 51
12 Kyler Amundson New Orleans Hurricanes 80 26.2 55 52 56
13 Jeron Davis Louisville Colonels 82 26.4 55 66 39
14 Andrew Buller Cincinnati Kings 80 17.8 55 56 52
15 Kel Pendergast Denver Dragons 54 16.7 55 52 53
TOP 15 PFS BY IMPACT (500+ min)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG Impact Off Def
1 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons 80 31.3 76 70 66
2 Austin Ross Baltimore Bullets 80 31.6 76 69 73
3 Karim Zouita Boston Crusaders 54 33.7 75 68 65
4 Jimmie Hollimon Portland Lumberjacks 78 30.1 75 68 65
5 Khadim Flowers New York Renegades 61 32.7 73 66 76
6 Jimmy Cougar III Cincinnati Kings 79 27.8 73 56 78
7 Tre Braun Philadelphia Warriors 63 24.3 72 68 64
8 Sylvain Garcia Seattle Thunder 81 25.3 72 51 92
9 Dion Sowder Los Angeles Fireballs 82 33.4 72 63 71
10 Leon Hawthorne Oklahoma City Barons 40 61.7 72 72 60
11 Evan Lieberman Oklahoma City Barons 78 31.4 71 66 67
12 Drake Walter Vancouver Wolves 81 32.5 71 60 79
13 Adonis Walters Mexico City Jaguars 56 32.1 70 73 57
14 Cardez Moss Austin Rockets 82 34.4 70 61 68
15 Stanley Ogide Charlotte Drones 80 29.6 68 67 61
TOP 15 CS BY IMPACT (500+ min)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rk Player Team GP MPG Impact Off Def
1 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 82 33.5 90 81 81
2 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons 58 33.1 87 73 75
3 Cole Kopelani Mexico City Jaguars 41 51.6 86 81 71
4 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights 81 29.4 85 70 89
5 Demitrius Burns Portland Lumberjacks 79 29.8 78 54 84
6 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings 82 31.0 75 61 79
7 Sergio Ortuño Vancouver Wolves 82 32.4 74 65 68
8 JB Winn Minneapolis Blizzards 82 26.2 73 67 63
9 Waylan Loftin Dallas Predators 82 28.0 73 63 63
10 Javar Bonham Chicago Jailbirds 82 29.0 71 60 65
11 Lorenzo Wade Seattle Thunder 80 24.5 70 61 66
12 Landon Battier Oakland Tritons 82 29.8 68 53 76
13 Javi Gonzalez Las Vegas Scorpions 82 21.7 67 57 65
14 Marcel Richter Baltimore Bullets 51 34.8 67 51 73
15 Winslo Barry Seattle Thunder 32 35.8 65 61 58
SCORE DISTRIBUTION
============================================================
Players scored: 435
Mean: 50.5 Median: 50 Std: 12.4
Min: 16 Max: 90
Tier breakdown:
Elite (85-100): 4
Star (70-84): 28
Starter(55-69): 118
Average(45-54): 162
Below (30-44): 99
Replcmt( 1-29): 24
COMPONENT CORRELATIONS (1500+ min players)
============================================================
impact vs epm : r = +0.904
impact vs win_model_score: r = +0.825
impact vs hidden_rating_impact: r = +0.394
epm vs win_model_score: r = +0.519
epm vs hidden_rating_impact: r = +0.453
win_model_score vs hidden_rating_impact: r = +0.166
========================================================================================================================
SUMMARY
========================================================================================================================
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\17_player_impact.txt
Chart saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\17_player_impact_distribution.png
18
Player Development
========================================================================================================================
JBL PLAYER DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION MODEL -- 2049 Season
========================================================================================================================
Components:
1. Player Comp Engine -- Win-model-weighted cosine similarity (32 ratings)
2. Archetype Classifier -- Random Forest on 32 ratings + 3 positional fits
3. Development Curve Model-- Segmented Ridge: CA = f(age, PA, age*PA, age^2)
4. College Prospect Integ.-- Map college -> pro ratings, run through all components
Data: 516 players (single 2049 snapshot, cross-sectional proxy for development)
DEVELOPMENT CURVE MODEL SUMMARY
================================================================================
Segment N R2 Peak Age Med PA Mean CA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Big_High 92 0.447 31 4.0 3.83
Big_Low 17 0.657 31 2.5 2.03
Big_Medium 98 0.497 31 3.5 3.15
Guard_High 24 0.530 30 4.0 3.08
Guard_Low 108 0.616 30 3.0 2.94
Guard_Medium 73 0.540 30 3.0 3.00
Wing_High 78 0.315 29 4.0 3.76
Wing_Low 17 0.755 29 2.5 2.35
Wing_Medium 106 0.468 29 3.5 3.01
ARCHETYPE CLASSIFIER -- OFFENSIVE (5-Fold Stratified CV)
================================================================================
Overall Accuracy: 54.3%
Archetype Accuracy N
----------------------------------------
Glue Guy 23.3% 30
Interior Playmaker 7.1% 14
Movement Shooter 0.0% 4
Pick-and-Pop Big 8.3% 12
Post Bully 0.0% 12
Post Scorer 18.4% 38
Primary Ballhandler 54.5% 55
Roll-and-Cut Big 84.3% 70
Secondary Creator 98.1% 162
Shot Creator 7.0% 43
Slasher 0.0% 11
Stationary Shooter 0.0% 18
Stretch Big 31.2% 16
Versatile Big 25.8% 31
ARCHETYPE CLASSIFIER -- DEFENSIVE (5-Fold Stratified CV)
================================================================================
Overall Accuracy: 70.2%
Archetype Accuracy N
----------------------------------------
Anchor Big 86.0% 93
Chaser 0.0% 32
Helper 2.3% 44
Low Activity 0.0% 2
Mobile Big 64.4% 73
Point Of Attack 75.3% 97
Wing Stopper 92.0% 175
DEVELOPMENT CURVES -- Mean CA by Age x PA Tier x Position
========================================================================================================================
Age Low PA (n) Medium PA (n) High PA (n)
---------------------------------------------------
20 2.38 ( 4) 2.58 ( 6)
21 2.60 ( 5) 2.67 ( 3)
22 2.25 ( 2) 2.00 ( 2)
23 2.38 ( 4) 2.67 ( 9) 2.75 ( 2)
24 3.06 ( 9) 3.75 ( 2)
25 3.25 ( 8)
26 3.17 ( 6)
27 3.33 ( 3)
28 3.33 ( 3) 4.00 ( 2)
29 3.25 ( 6)
30 3.27 ( 11) 3.67 ( 3)
31 3.25 ( 2)
32 3.00 ( 2)
33 2.00 ( 2) 3.00 ( 2)
Age Low PA (n) Medium PA (n) High PA (n)
---------------------------------------------------
20 2.43 ( 14) 3.06 ( 8)
21 2.25 ( 2) 2.55 ( 10) 3.10 ( 5)
22 2.88 ( 8)
23 2.33 ( 6) 3.00 ( 13) 4.17 ( 3)
24 3.09 ( 16) 4.00 ( 10)
25 3.22 ( 9) 3.92 ( 6)
26 3.17 ( 3) 3.50 ( 4)
27 3.50 ( 3) 4.12 ( 4)
28 3.20 ( 5) 3.94 ( 8)
29 3.42 ( 6) 3.95 ( 11)
30 3.39 ( 9) 3.91 ( 11)
31 3.88 ( 4)
32 3.10 ( 5) 4.00 ( 2)
33 3.25 ( 4)
Age Low PA (n) Medium PA (n) High PA (n)
---------------------------------------------------
19 2.50 ( 4)
20 1.83 ( 3) 2.71 ( 12) 3.05 ( 11)
21 2.78 ( 9) 3.50 ( 5)
22 2.00 ( 3) 3.22 ( 9) 3.83 ( 3)
23 2.50 ( 2) 3.11 ( 14) 3.83 ( 9)
24 2.25 ( 2) 3.36 ( 7) 4.31 ( 8)
25 3.25 ( 4) 4.12 ( 4)
26 3.42 ( 6) 4.25 ( 6)
27 3.43 ( 7) 4.00 ( 5)
28 3.33 ( 6) 4.15 ( 10)
29 3.25 ( 4) 4.14 ( 11)
30 3.50 ( 4) 3.94 ( 8)
31 3.25 ( 2) 4.25 ( 2)
32 3.38 ( 4) 4.00 ( 2)
33 3.14 ( 7) 3.75 ( 2)
35 2.00 ( 3) 3.00 ( 2)
RATING-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT -- Peak Ages by Position
================================================================================
Rating Guard Wing Big
--------------------------------------------------------
Inside Shooting 29 29 31 (R2=0.522)
Defensive Rebounding 27 29 31 (R2=0.428)
Pick & Roll Execution 30 29 29 (R2=0.418)
Help Defense 25 27 28 (R2=0.398)
3PT Shooting 30 29 28 (R2=0.373)
Offensive Rebounding 28 28 31 (R2=0.303)
Isolation Execution 29 29 28 (R2=0.303)
Shoot Off Dribble 30 28 28 (R2=0.232)
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 29 27 27 (R2=0.228)
Endurance 24 25 29 (R2=0.220)
DENVER DRAGONS -- Development Dashboard
========================================================================================================================
Player Pos Age CA PA Gap ExpCA Dev Peak PeakCA Top Comp Pred Off Arch
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brandon Leslie Big 29 4.0 4.0 0.0 4.03 -0.03 31 4.07 Ben Haygood Roll-and-Cut Big
Hudson Leonard Wing 28 4.0 4.0 0.0 3.86 +0.14 29 4.05 Lenzelle Ndefo Glue Guy
Kel Pendergast Wing 24 4.0 4.0 0.0 3.60 +0.40 29 4.31 Adam Zeljković Secondary Creator
Pedro Santos Big 22 4.0 4.5 0.5 3.66 +0.34 31 4.70 Raekwon Pack Secondary Creator
Robert Alcegaire Big 28 3.5 3.5 0.0 3.52 -0.02 31 3.59 Conner Pearson Post Scorer
Domonkos Biro Wing 23 3.5 3.5 0.0 3.02 +0.48 29 3.95 Tyree Bruner Secondary Creator
Garrick Jurkin Big 30 3.5 5.0 1.5 4.57 -1.07 31 3.55 Semisi Rautins Glue Guy
Kaimyn Fry Big 22 3.5 3.5 0.0 3.27 +0.23 31 3.83 Donte Black Post Scorer
Zach Camara Guard 30 3.5 3.5 0.0 3.54 -0.04 30 3.50 Niklas Harris Shot Creator
Tyrique Beaudean Guard 24 3.0 3.5 0.5 3.08 -0.08 30 3.46 Marquez Pearson Primary Ballhandler
LaMarcus Quinn Guard 21 3.0 3.5 0.5 2.79 +0.21 30 3.76 Brandon Holyfield Primary Ballhandler
Marquill Edmunds Wing 32 2.5 2.5 0.0 2.50 0.00 29 2.49 Stephan Rayner Secondary Creator
Tyrae Lewis Guard 20 2.5 5.0 2.5 2.68 -0.18 30 3.86 Jamaria Flagg Secondary Creator
Devaugntah Litton Big 22 2.5 2.5 0.0 2.18 +0.32 31 2.80 Jordan Goodridge Roll-and-Cut Big
Dev = development residual (positive = ahead of curve, negative = behind)
DRAFT PROSPECT PROJECTIONS -- Top 20 CLEAN Prospects
========================================================================================================================
Rk Name Pos Age Ridge Char Pred Off Archetype Pred Def Archetype Top Comp
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Orlando Fitzpatrick SF/SG 22 2.634 CLEAN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Jarrett Sutherland
2 Shaun Ackerman SG 21 2.616 CLEAN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Terrence Swan
3 Zack Stiemsma SG 22 2.563 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Tyree Bruner
4 Zachary Bancroft SF 22 2.489 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Tyree Bruner
5 Kiimani Brasher SF/PF 22 2.468 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Luke Venizelos
6 Moroni Ahart SG 22 2.456 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Guy Vasquez
7 Francesco Zappa SG 22 2.439 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Terrence Swan
8 Favour VanVleet PF/SF 22 2.437 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Vitaliy McCarty
9 Hunter Birdsong SG 24 2.437 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Makyi Olanrewaju
10 LaShun Eddington PF 22 2.432 UNKNOWN Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big Russell Boozer
11 Nimrod McCown SG 22 2.422 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Cade Shelton
12 Clayfell Mumpfield SG/SF 22 2.417 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Brandon Arenas
13 Paul Pugliese SG/SF 22 2.417 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Tyree Bruner
14 Jules Cavalieri SG 22 2.416 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Cole Starkweather
15 Eriks Blakeney SF/SG 20 2.416 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Jatayveous Wiltz
16 Vonterius Peevy SG 22 2.409 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper René Köpke
17 Vincent Walker SF/SG 22 2.407 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Payton Oyediran
18 Decensae Nyeko PF/SF 22 2.398 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Garrick Jurkin
19 Oludele Pohl C/PF 22 2.396 UNKNOWN Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big Jorge Tomás
20 Tyrell Hawke SG 22 2.391 UNKNOWN Secondary Creator Wing Stopper Max Kurbatov
#1 Orlando Fitzpatrick -- Detailed Comps & Archetype Probs
Comp Team Age CA Sim Off Arch Def Arch
Jarrett Sutherland Toronto Huskies 25 3.5 0.972 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Cardez Moss Austin Rockets 29 4.0 0.972 Slasher Wing Stopper
Makyi Olanrewaju Seattle Thunder 31 4.0 0.971 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Jason Cheaney Jr Detroit Mustangs 32 4.0 0.970 Secondary Creator Helper
Carsen Christos Oklahoma City Barons 25 3.5 0.969 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Offensive: Secondary Creator 44%, Versatile Big 10%, Shot Creator 8%
Defensive: Wing Stopper 52%, Point Of Attack 21%, Chaser 15%
#2 Shaun Ackerman -- Detailed Comps & Archetype Probs
Comp Team Age CA Sim Off Arch Def Arch
Terrence Swan Louisville Colonels 27 4.0 0.966 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Jatayveous Wiltz Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 0.964 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Cade Shelton Houston Lightning 23 3.5 0.963 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Andrew Buller Cincinnati Kings 30 3.5 0.963 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Hudson Leonard Denver Dragons 28 4.0 0.961 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
Offensive: Secondary Creator 50%, Glue Guy 10%, Versatile Big 6%
Defensive: Wing Stopper 60%, Chaser 14%, Point Of Attack 13%
#3 Zack Stiemsma -- Detailed Comps & Archetype Probs
Comp Team Age CA Sim Off Arch Def Arch
Tyree Bruner Minneapolis Blizzards 28 4.0 0.974 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Erickson Wirth Houston Lightning 24 3.5 0.972 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Terrence Swan Louisville Colonels 27 4.0 0.971 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Jatayveous Wiltz Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 0.970 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Nazeer Odiambo Detroit Mustangs 20 3.0 0.970 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Offensive: Secondary Creator 40%, Shot Creator 10%, Versatile Big 8%
Defensive: Wing Stopper 40%, Point Of Attack 22%, Chaser 18%
#4 Zachary Bancroft -- Detailed Comps & Archetype Probs
Comp Team Age CA Sim Off Arch Def Arch
Tyree Bruner Minneapolis Blizzards 28 4.0 0.973 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Alejandro Suarez Pittsburgh Vipers 29 2.5 0.968 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Mandela Osayande Mexico City Jaguars 29 3.5 0.968 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Erickson Wirth Houston Lightning 24 3.5 0.966 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Lamar Claxton Jr Los Angeles Fireballs 20 3.0 0.964 Secondary Creator Chaser
Offensive: Secondary Creator 47%, Versatile Big 10%, Slasher 8%
Defensive: Wing Stopper 47%, Chaser 18%, Point Of Attack 14%
#5 Kiimani Brasher -- Detailed Comps & Archetype Probs
Comp Team Age CA Sim Off Arch Def Arch
Luke Venizelos Pittsburgh Vipers 29 4.0 0.966 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Derrick Lynch Seattle Thunder 26 2.5 0.966 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Evan Lieberman Oklahoma City Barons 30 3.5 0.964 Shot Creator Wing Stopper
Mustapha Efianayi Houston Lightning 30 4.0 0.964 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Xavier Yates Chicago Jailbirds 20 3.5 0.961 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Offensive: Secondary Creator 38%, Versatile Big 12%, Shot Creator 7%
Defensive: Wing Stopper 41%, Chaser 16%, Mobile Big 12%
DENVER GAP-FILLING PROSPECTS
========================================================================================================================
Denver's top gaps: Defensive Rebounding (33rd), Spacing (25th), 3PT Shooting (16th)
Rk Name Pos Ridge GapFill DefReb 3PT Space Help InsSht
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 LaShun Eddington PF 2.432 1.1480 15.5 15.5 9.5 14.5 17.5
2 Orlando Fitzpatrick SF/SG 2.634 1.0928 13.5 15.5 11.5 16.5 14.5
3 Decensae Nyeko PF/SF 2.398 1.0274 14.5 15.5 12.5 7.5 15.5
4 Oludele Pohl C/PF 2.396 1.0153 12.5 12.5 10.5 13.5 17.5
5 Francesco Zappa SG 2.439 1.0083 11.5 15.5 15.5 9.5 16.5
6 Shaun Ackerman SG 2.616 0.9856 11.5 13.5 11.5 12.5 16.5
7 Favour VanVleet PF/SF 2.437 0.9643 12.5 14.5 10.5 13.5 11.5
8 Zack Stiemsma SG 2.563 0.9546 8.5 17.5 16.5 9.5 15.5
9 Hunter Birdsong SG 2.437 0.9471 11.5 15.5 12.5 8.5 14.5
10 Zachary Bancroft SF 2.489 0.9466 8.5 16.5 12.5 13.5 14.5
LEAGUE-WIDE DEVELOPMENT INSIGHTS
========================================================================================================================
Best-Developing Teams (highest avg development residual):
Rk Team Avg Dev Residual Players
-------------------------------------------------------
1 Portland Lumberjacks +0.215 13
2 Kansas City Knights +0.194 13
3 New Orleans Hurricanes +0.173 14
4 Charlotte Drones +0.103 13
5 Detroit Mustangs +0.083 15
6 Cleveland Giants +0.082 15
7 Baltimore Bullets +0.082 13
8 Louisville Colonels +0.081 15
9 Chicago Jailbirds +0.069 15
10 Oklahoma City Barons +0.065 14
Worst-Developing Teams:
Rk Team Avg Dev Residual Players
-------------------------------------------------------
1 Oakland Tritons -0.135 15
2 St Louis Skyhawks -0.163 15
3 Washington Pilots -0.167 15
4 Atlanta Devils -0.208 15
5 Toronto Huskies -0.308 15
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES (age <= 25, PA-CA gap >= 1.0, dev residual > +0.3):
Player Team Age CA PA Gap Dev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds 24 4.0 5.0 1.0 +0.770
René Köpke Charlotte Drones 20 3.0 4.0 1.0 +0.450
Devin Kavanagh Louisville Colonels 20 3.0 4.0 1.0 +0.450
Brandon Arenas Pittsburgh Vipers 20 3.0 4.0 1.0 +0.450
Cayden Ward Portland Lumberjacks 24 3.5 4.5 1.0 +0.380
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 3.0 4.0 1.0 +0.340
========================================================================================================================
SUMMARY
========================================================================================================================
Players analyzed: 516
Development segments fit: 9
Prospects evaluated: 20
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\18_player_development.txt
18
Position Ridge
==========================================================================================
A. POSITION DISTRIBUTION & DESCRIPTIVE STATS
==========================================================================================
Position N Pct Avg BPM SD BPM Avg CA Avg MP
------------------------------------------------------------
Guard 89 25.1% +0.04 2.37 3.22 23.5
Wing 38 10.7% -1.19 3.06 2.80 23.2
PF 117 33.1% +1.50 2.70 3.62 26.1
C 110 31.1% +0.08 3.07 3.23 23.9
Rating means by position (largest divergences first):
Rating Guard Wing PF C Spread
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
defense_Rim Protection 3.6 6.4 12.5 16.8 13.2
defense_Post Defense 4.3 7.8 12.4 16.6 12.3
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17.0 16.0 15.1 5.7 11.3
playmaking_Ball Handling 17.3 14.3 13.8 6.3 11.1
execution_Post Execution 4.4 3.9 6.8 14.5 10.6
creation_Shoot Off Dribble 14.4 11.7 10.8 4.8 9.6
physical_Speed 15.2 14.2 12.3 6.6 8.5
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding 8.2 8.7 12.5 16.1 7.9
playmaking_Playmaking 15.1 12.0 13.2 7.6 7.5
defense_Stealing 15.7 14.6 14.9 8.2 7.5
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding 9.4 10.6 13.1 16.5 7.1
playmaking_Spacing 13.8 12.7 12.9 6.8 6.9
defense_Off-Ball Defense 16.3 15.0 15.5 9.7 6.5
playmaking_Gravity 16.4 14.2 14.7 10.1 6.3
physical_Strength 9.4 9.9 12.0 15.4 6.0
Largest positional spreads reveal restricted ranges:
e.g., if Guards cluster 15-19 on a rating, SD is low => low predictive power.
==========================================================================================
B. POSITION-SPECIFIC BIVARIATE CORRELATIONS (each rating vs BPM)
==========================================================================================
Guard (n=89): Top 10 correlates with BPM
Rank Rating r R2 p
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 defense_Help Defense +0.392 0.154 0.0001 ***
2 rebounding_Defensive Rebounding +0.380 0.144 0.0002 ***
3 rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.331 0.109 0.0016 **
4 execution_Pick & Roll Execution +0.304 0.092 0.0038 **
5 shooting_Inside Shooting +0.269 0.072 0.0108 *
6 playmaking_Playmaking +0.268 0.072 0.0111 *
7 defense_Stealing +0.233 0.054 0.0279 *
8 execution_Post Execution +0.215 0.046 0.0427 *
9 creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.214 0.046 0.0445 *
10 shooting_3PT Shooting +0.211 0.045 0.0467 *
Wing (n=38): Top 10 correlates with BPM
Rank Rating r R2 p
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 execution_Isolation Execution +0.519 0.269 0.0008 ***
2 defense_Off-Ball Defense +0.482 0.232 0.0022 **
3 shooting_3PT Shooting +0.457 0.209 0.0039 **
4 playmaking_Passing +0.432 0.187 0.0067 **
5 playmaking_Ball Handling +0.412 0.170 0.0102 *
6 rebounding_Defensive Rebounding +0.374 0.140 0.0206 *
7 defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense +0.356 0.127 0.0281 *
8 physical_Quickness +0.345 0.119 0.0337 *
9 playmaking_Gravity +0.323 0.105 0.0477 *
10 playmaking_Spacing +0.302 0.091 0.0655
PF (n=117): Top 10 correlates with BPM
Rank Rating r R2 p
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 shooting_3PT Shooting +0.461 0.212 0.0000 ***
2 defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense +0.443 0.197 0.0000 ***
3 defense_Off-Ball Defense +0.443 0.196 0.0000 ***
4 physical_Speed +0.399 0.159 0.0000 ***
5 creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.388 0.150 0.0000 ***
6 playmaking_Spacing +0.375 0.141 0.0000 ***
7 defense_Stealing +0.365 0.133 0.0001 ***
8 execution_Post Execution -0.320 0.103 0.0004 ***
9 playmaking_Ball Handling +0.319 0.102 0.0004 ***
10 physical_Quickness +0.302 0.091 0.0009 ***
C (n=110): Top 10 correlates with BPM
Rank Rating r R2 p
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 playmaking_Passing +0.517 0.268 0.0000 ***
2 playmaking_Playmaking +0.400 0.160 0.0000 ***
3 shooting_Inside Shooting +0.392 0.153 0.0000 ***
4 shooting_3PT Shooting +0.380 0.145 0.0000 ***
5 creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.374 0.140 0.0001 ***
6 execution_Pick & Roll Execution +0.332 0.110 0.0004 ***
7 defense_Rim Protection +0.317 0.101 0.0007 ***
8 playmaking_Gravity +0.315 0.099 0.0008 ***
9 playmaking_Ball Handling +0.307 0.094 0.0011 **
10 shooting_Free Throws +0.291 0.085 0.0020 **
Rank comparison — same rating, different positions:
Rating G rank W rank B rank Max diff
----------------------------------------------------------------------
defense_Help Defense 1 28 14 27
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding 3 24 29 26
execution_Pick & Roll Execution 4 13 28 24
physical_Speed 15 23 4 24
execution_Isolation Execution 14 1 24 23
execution_Post Execution 8 16 8 22
creation_Finishing 23 11 32 21
defense_Off-Ball Defense 22 2 3 21
defense_Rim Protection 27 25 22 20
physical_Quickness 28 8 10 20
==========================================================================================
C. POSITION-SPECIFIC RIDGE MODELS (BPM ~ 32 ratings)
==========================================================================================
Universal model: n = 354
Universal best alpha = 85.3168, 10-fold CV RMSE = 2.2584
Guard model: n = 89
Best alpha = 85.3168, 10-fold CV RMSE = 2.0941
Full-sample R2 = 0.4279
Top 10 coefficients (standardized, predicting BPM):
Rating Coef Uni Coef Delta
-----------------------------------------------------------------
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding +0.3455 +0.5998 -0.2543
defense_Help Defense +0.2807 +0.2745 +0.0062
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.2628 +0.5055 -0.2427
execution_Pick & Roll Execution +0.2576 +0.3443 -0.0867
playmaking_Playmaking +0.1712 +0.2626 -0.0914
shooting_Inside Shooting +0.1629 +0.3399 -0.1770
defense_Stealing +0.1538 +0.2221 -0.0683
playmaking_Gravity -0.1530 +0.0349 -0.1879
playmaking_Passing +0.1523 +0.5460 -0.3937
creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.1387 +0.1687 -0.0300
Wing model: n = 38
Best alpha = 52.9832, 10-fold CV RMSE = 2.5786
Full-sample R2 = 0.6352
Top 10 coefficients (standardized, predicting BPM):
Rating Coef Uni Coef Delta
-----------------------------------------------------------------
execution_Isolation Execution +0.3988 +0.0742 +0.3246
playmaking_Passing +0.3094 +0.5460 -0.2366
playmaking_Ball Handling +0.2912 +0.0165 +0.2746
physical_Quickness +0.2696 +0.1232 +0.1465
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.2639 +0.5055 -0.2416
physical_Athleticism +0.2611 -0.1611 +0.4223
physical_Strength +0.2415 +0.0281 +0.2134
shooting_3PT Shooting +0.2379 +0.4461 -0.2081
creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.2100 +0.1687 +0.0413
defense_Off-Ball Defense +0.2096 +0.1369 +0.0727
PF model: n = 117
Best alpha = 52.9832, 10-fold CV RMSE = 2.1448
Full-sample R2 = 0.5694
Top 10 coefficients (standardized, predicting BPM):
Rating Coef Uni Coef Delta
-----------------------------------------------------------------
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding +0.4865 +0.5998 -0.1133
shooting_3PT Shooting +0.4366 +0.4461 -0.0095
physical_Speed +0.4339 +0.0809 +0.3530
creation_Foul Drawing +0.3811 +0.2722 +0.1088
shooting_Inside Shooting +0.3624 +0.3399 +0.0225
defense_Off-Ball Defense +0.3112 +0.1369 +0.1743
playmaking_Passing +0.2738 +0.5460 -0.2722
creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.2128 +0.1687 +0.0442
playmaking_Ball Handling +0.2082 +0.0165 +0.1917
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.1783 +0.5055 -0.3272
C model: n = 110
Best alpha = 52.9832, 10-fold CV RMSE = 2.3432
Full-sample R2 = 0.5999
Top 10 coefficients (standardized, predicting BPM):
Rating Coef Uni Coef Delta
-----------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking_Passing +0.5883 +0.5460 +0.0423
execution_Pick & Roll Execution +0.4125 +0.3443 +0.0682
shooting_Free Throws +0.3736 +0.1540 +0.2196
playmaking_Spacing +0.3716 +0.3344 +0.0372
defense_Rim Protection +0.3568 +0.3481 +0.0086
shooting_3PT Shooting +0.3554 +0.4461 -0.0907
playmaking_Playmaking +0.3471 +0.2626 +0.0845
physical_Athleticism -0.3099 -0.1611 -0.1488
shooting_Inside Shooting +0.2674 +0.3399 -0.0725
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.2510 +0.5055 -0.2545
==========================================================================================
D. BOOTSTRAP VALIDATION (500 iterations per position)
==========================================================================================
Guard bootstrap (n=89, iterations=500)...
Rating Mean CI Low CI High Status
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding +0.3043 +0.1392 +0.4599 STABLE
defense_Help Defense +0.2510 +0.0462 +0.4269 STABLE
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.2424 +0.0688 +0.4138 STABLE
execution_Pick & Roll Execution +0.2267 +0.0816 +0.3823 STABLE
playmaking_Playmaking +0.1523 -0.0152 +0.3032 includes 0
shooting_Inside Shooting +0.1376 -0.0168 +0.2901 includes 0
defense_Stealing +0.1260 -0.0800 +0.3302 includes 0
playmaking_Gravity -0.1256 -0.2997 +0.0631 includes 0
creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.1236 -0.0226 +0.2927 includes 0
playmaking_Passing +0.1230 -0.0281 +0.2801 includes 0
shooting_3PT Shooting +0.1156 -0.0605 +0.2938 includes 0
playmaking_Spacing +0.1112 -0.0668 +0.3154 includes 0
creation_Foul Drawing +0.0932 -0.0932 +0.2802 includes 0
defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense +0.0913 -0.0793 +0.2756 includes 0
execution_Post Execution +0.0911 -0.0551 +0.2305 includes 0
4/32 coefficients with 95% CI excluding zero
Wing bootstrap (n=38, iterations=500)...
Rating Mean CI Low CI High Status
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
execution_Isolation Execution +0.3189 +0.1194 +0.5213 STABLE
playmaking_Passing +0.2465 +0.0497 +0.4138 STABLE
playmaking_Ball Handling +0.2350 +0.0117 +0.4439 STABLE
physical_Quickness +0.2193 +0.0036 +0.3995 STABLE
shooting_3PT Shooting +0.2095 +0.0621 +0.3678 STABLE
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.1981 -0.0235 +0.4346 includes 0
physical_Athleticism +0.1962 -0.0054 +0.3846 includes 0
defense_Off-Ball Defense +0.1957 +0.0412 +0.3791 STABLE
physical_Strength +0.1871 -0.0006 +0.3578 includes 0
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding +0.1820 +0.0054 +0.3813 STABLE
creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.1632 -0.0169 +0.3914 includes 0
creation_Finishing +0.1534 -0.0760 +0.3684 includes 0
playmaking_Gravity +0.1476 -0.0292 +0.3308 includes 0
physical_First Step -0.1291 -0.3582 +0.0892 includes 0
execution_Pick & Roll Execution +0.1197 -0.0908 +0.3424 includes 0
7/32 coefficients with 95% CI excluding zero
PF bootstrap (n=117, iterations=500)...
Rating Mean CI Low CI High Status
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
rebounding_Defensive Rebounding +0.4461 +0.2636 +0.6384 STABLE
shooting_3PT Shooting +0.4039 +0.1313 +0.6320 STABLE
physical_Speed +0.3772 +0.1914 +0.5648 STABLE
creation_Foul Drawing +0.3201 +0.0669 +0.5577 STABLE
shooting_Inside Shooting +0.3195 +0.0915 +0.5760 STABLE
defense_Off-Ball Defense +0.2763 +0.0261 +0.5228 STABLE
playmaking_Passing +0.2554 +0.0262 +0.5068 STABLE
creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.1986 -0.0158 +0.4108 includes 0
playmaking_Ball Handling +0.1969 -0.0440 +0.4362 includes 0
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.1865 -0.0204 +0.3854 includes 0
playmaking_Spacing +0.1689 -0.0369 +0.3921 includes 0
defense_Stealing +0.1498 -0.0709 +0.3768 includes 0
creation_Finishing -0.1385 -0.3897 +0.0941 includes 0
physical_Endurance +0.1382 -0.0665 +0.3396 includes 0
defense_Help Defense +0.1345 -0.1156 +0.3905 includes 0
7/32 coefficients with 95% CI excluding zero
C bootstrap (n=110, iterations=500)...
Rating Mean CI Low CI High Status
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
playmaking_Passing +0.5394 +0.3002 +0.7962 STABLE
execution_Pick & Roll Execution +0.3508 +0.0619 +0.6186 STABLE
playmaking_Spacing +0.3476 +0.1178 +0.5984 STABLE
shooting_Free Throws +0.3292 +0.0542 +0.5948 STABLE
defense_Rim Protection +0.3257 +0.1169 +0.5164 STABLE
shooting_3PT Shooting +0.3156 +0.0618 +0.5761 STABLE
playmaking_Playmaking +0.3151 +0.0585 +0.5622 STABLE
physical_Athleticism -0.2609 -0.5153 +0.0027 includes 0
shooting_Inside Shooting +0.2420 -0.0032 +0.4812 includes 0
rebounding_Offensive Rebounding +0.2324 +0.0105 +0.4253 STABLE
creation_Shoot Off Dribble +0.1984 -0.0081 +0.3989 includes 0
creation_Self-Creation +0.1936 -0.0891 +0.4415 includes 0
execution_Basketball IQ -0.1838 -0.3958 +0.0446 includes 0
defense_Help Defense +0.1700 -0.0719 +0.3995 includes 0
defense_Stealing +0.1556 -0.0806 +0.4062 includes 0
8/32 coefficients with 95% CI excluding zero
==========================================================================================
E. UNIVERSAL vs POSITION-SPECIFIC COMPARISON (10-fold CV)
==========================================================================================
Comparing universal model vs position-specific on each position subset.
If position-specific RMSE < universal RMSE, the position model is better.
Position N Uni RMSE Pos RMSE Delta Improvement
------------------------------------------------------------
Guard 89 2.0941 2.0941 +0.0000 +0.0%
Wing 38 2.5973 2.5786 -0.0187 -0.7%
PF 117 2.1488 2.1448 -0.0040 -0.2%
C 110 2.3519 2.3432 -0.0087 -0.4%
Negative delta = position model is better.
Note: Guard (n~108) may show noise due to small sample + 32 predictors.
Ridge regularization mitigates overfitting, but interpret Guard results cautiously.
==========================================================================================
F. COEFFICIENT EXPORT
==========================================================================================
Coefficient dicts for config.py:
RIDGE_COEFS_GUARD = {
"rebounding_Defensive Rebounding": 0.345534,
"defense_Help Defense": 0.280691,
"rebounding_Offensive Rebounding": 0.262823,
"execution_Pick & Roll Execution": 0.257566,
"playmaking_Playmaking": 0.171225,
"shooting_Inside Shooting": 0.162931,
"defense_Stealing": 0.153776,
"playmaking_Gravity": -0.153000,
"playmaking_Passing": 0.152316,
"creation_Shoot Off Dribble": 0.138692,
"shooting_3PT Shooting": 0.120491,
"playmaking_Spacing": 0.111952,
"defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense": 0.109751,
"shooting_Free Throws": 0.103490,
"physical_Speed": 0.102903,
"creation_Foul Drawing": 0.097809,
"execution_Post Execution": 0.091207,
"creation_Self-Creation": 0.077337,
"execution_Basketball IQ": 0.075652,
"physical_Athleticism": -0.073719,
"shooting_Mid-Range Shooting": 0.071926,
"physical_Strength": -0.061321,
"execution_Isolation Execution": 0.052467,
"creation_Finishing": -0.052421,
"physical_First Step": -0.051267,
"physical_Endurance": 0.049963,
"defense_Rim Protection": -0.041024,
"physical_Quickness": 0.030661,
"creation_Ball Dominance": -0.018340,
"defense_Post Defense": 0.014160,
"playmaking_Ball Handling": -0.011377,
"defense_Off-Ball Defense": 0.005652,
}
RIDGE_COEFS_WING = {
"execution_Isolation Execution": 0.398762,
"playmaking_Passing": 0.309422,
"playmaking_Ball Handling": 0.291168,
"physical_Quickness": 0.269647,
"rebounding_Offensive Rebounding": 0.263903,
"physical_Athleticism": 0.261142,
"physical_Strength": 0.241459,
"shooting_3PT Shooting": 0.237945,
"creation_Shoot Off Dribble": 0.210010,
"defense_Off-Ball Defense": 0.209604,
"rebounding_Defensive Rebounding": 0.203524,
"creation_Finishing": 0.202272,
"physical_First Step": -0.166704,
"playmaking_Gravity": 0.154087,
"execution_Pick & Roll Execution": 0.149460,
"physical_Endurance": 0.139720,
"shooting_Free Throws": 0.132503,
"physical_Speed": 0.112632,
"playmaking_Playmaking": 0.109669,
"shooting_Mid-Range Shooting": 0.092415,
"playmaking_Spacing": 0.089144,
"defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense": 0.085846,
"defense_Stealing": 0.079224,
"defense_Help Defense": -0.077676,
"creation_Self-Creation": 0.067554,
"defense_Post Defense": 0.065975,
"creation_Ball Dominance": 0.047109,
"execution_Post Execution": 0.038743,
"defense_Rim Protection": -0.038288,
"shooting_Inside Shooting": -0.032247,
"execution_Basketball IQ": -0.014209,
"creation_Foul Drawing": 0.010821,
}
RIDGE_COEFS_PF = {
"rebounding_Defensive Rebounding": 0.486537,
"shooting_3PT Shooting": 0.436574,
"physical_Speed": 0.433911,
"creation_Foul Drawing": 0.381061,
"shooting_Inside Shooting": 0.362443,
"defense_Off-Ball Defense": 0.311227,
"playmaking_Passing": 0.273775,
"creation_Shoot Off Dribble": 0.212815,
"playmaking_Ball Handling": 0.208247,
"rebounding_Offensive Rebounding": 0.178305,
"playmaking_Spacing": 0.176446,
"playmaking_Playmaking": -0.156269,
"defense_Stealing": 0.154087,
"physical_Endurance": 0.153227,
"creation_Finishing": -0.149949,
"defense_Help Defense": 0.148174,
"defense_Rim Protection": 0.137059,
"execution_Post Execution": -0.136715,
"execution_Pick & Roll Execution": 0.135249,
"creation_Self-Creation": -0.128731,
"creation_Ball Dominance": 0.119144,
"execution_Basketball IQ": -0.104789,
"defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense": 0.100700,
"physical_First Step": 0.099836,
"execution_Isolation Execution": 0.090916,
"physical_Quickness": 0.090179,
"shooting_Free Throws": -0.072180,
"shooting_Mid-Range Shooting": -0.062468,
"physical_Strength": -0.053562,
"physical_Athleticism": -0.020225,
"playmaking_Gravity": -0.018194,
"defense_Post Defense": 0.017704,
}
RIDGE_COEFS_C = {
"playmaking_Passing": 0.588322,
"execution_Pick & Roll Execution": 0.412470,
"shooting_Free Throws": 0.373572,
"playmaking_Spacing": 0.371649,
"defense_Rim Protection": 0.356789,
"shooting_3PT Shooting": 0.355372,
"playmaking_Playmaking": 0.347055,
"physical_Athleticism": -0.309901,
"shooting_Inside Shooting": 0.267370,
"rebounding_Offensive Rebounding": 0.251006,
"creation_Self-Creation": 0.219198,
"execution_Basketball IQ": -0.206655,
"defense_Help Defense": 0.199609,
"creation_Shoot Off Dribble": 0.186632,
"defense_Stealing": 0.181281,
"creation_Foul Drawing": 0.170785,
"rebounding_Defensive Rebounding": 0.136865,
"execution_Post Execution": -0.086666,
"physical_Endurance": 0.086204,
"playmaking_Gravity": 0.078959,
"shooting_Mid-Range Shooting": -0.077253,
"physical_First Step": 0.067061,
"creation_Ball Dominance": 0.064310,
"defense_On-Ball Perimeter Defense": 0.061923,
"physical_Strength": 0.058804,
"execution_Isolation Execution": -0.052261,
"playmaking_Ball Handling": 0.046574,
"creation_Finishing": 0.043077,
"defense_Off-Ball Defense": 0.024128,
"physical_Quickness": 0.020197,
"defense_Post Defense": 0.005283,
"physical_Speed": 0.005093,
}
Exported to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\data\position_ridge_coefs.json
Chart saved: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\18_position_coefs_guard.png
Chart saved: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\18_position_coefs_wing.png
Chart saved: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\18_position_coefs_pf.png
Chart saved: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\charts\18_position_coefs_c.png
19
Draft Pedigree Analysis
========================================================================
19 - DRAFT PICK PEDIGREE VS CAREER OUTCOMES
========================================================================
Total players: 516 | Drafted: 512 | Undrafted/unknown: 4
Young players (1-2 yrs pro): 112 (flagged separately)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: DRAFT PICK VALUE CURVE
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pick Range N Avg CA Avg PA Avg Impact Avg WS/48 Avg Yrs
-----------------------------------------------------------------
1-3 47 3.71 4.29 56.1 0.103 8.4
4-5 31 3.60 4.08 54.1 0.103 8.4
6-10 71 3.50 3.81 51.9 0.100 7.8
11-20 117 3.28 3.54 50.8 0.094 7.1
21-40 150 3.10 3.36 49.5 0.091 6.0
41-60 74 2.84 3.14 48.8 0.075 4.3
61+ 22 2.77 3.18 48.8 0.037 4.5
Correlation: Draft Pick vs CA: r=-0.391 (p=0.0000)
Correlation: Draft Pick vs Impact: r=-0.201 (p=0.0000)
(Negative r = higher picks have better outcomes, as expected)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: HIT RATES BY PICK RANGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier definitions: Elite (CA >= 4.5) | Star (CA >= 4.0)
Starter (CA >= 3.0) | Bust (CA < 2.0)
Pick Range N Elite% Star% Starter% Bust%
---------------------------------------------------
1-3 41 26.8% 63.4% 95.1% 0.0%
4-5 27 18.5% 55.6% 92.6% 0.0%
6-10 61 1.6% 44.3% 96.7% 0.0%
11-20 97 0.0% 27.8% 91.8% 0.0%
21-40 114 2.6% 17.5% 91.2% 1.8%
41-60 47 2.1% 12.8% 83.0% 2.1%
61+ 13 0.0% 15.4% 92.3% 0.0%
(Excludes players with <=2 years pro experience -- too early to judge)
Aeon's question -- picks 6-10 specifically (n=61 veterans):
All-Star caliber (CA >= 4.0): 44.3%
Starter caliber (CA >= 3.0): 96.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: PICK #10 HISTORICAL DEEP DIVE (Picks 8-12)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pick Name Team CA PA Impact Yrs Age WS/48
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Nazir Link Austin Rockets 2.0 3.0 55 2 23 0.101 *
8 Conner Pearson Baltimore Bullets 4.0 4.0 53 10 30 0.140
8 Ambrose Udoh Chicago Jailbirds 4.0 4.0 50 15 33 0.107
8 Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 3.0 3.5 52 3 20 0.067
8 Willie Bennett Las Vegas Scorpions 3.5 3.5 57 12 30 0.094
8 Kel Pendergast Denver Dragons 4.0 4.0 51 6 24 0.025
8 Raekwon Pack Miami Cyclones 4.0 4.0 65 9 27 0.121
8 Terrence Swan Louisville Colonels 4.0 4.0 56 8 27 0.125
8 Devon Walton New York Renegades 4.0 4.0 45 7 26 0.081
8 Leon Hawthorne Oklahoma City Baron 4.0 4.0 64 11 30 0.116
8 Isaac Lopez Portland Lumberjack 3.5 3.5 43 5 23 0.144
8 Demitrius Waltz Phoenix Vultures 3.5 3.5 48 4 23 0.112
8 Vasja Delimont Oakland Tritons 2.5 3.5 41 1 20 0.050 *
9 Kaimyn Fry Denver Dragons 3.5 3.5 44 4 22 0.121
9 René Köpke Charlotte Drones 3.0 4.0 38 2 20 0.062 *
9 Scoochie Hope Atlanta Devils 3.5 3.5 55 9 27 0.104
9 Stephan Rayner New York Renegades 3.5 4.5 47 10 29 0.073
9 Jonathan Landry Las Vegas Scorpions 3.0 3.0 52 15 33 0.125
9 Tymier Hadaway New York Renegades 3.5 3.5 48 13 31 0.078
9 Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones 3.0 3.0 43 5 24 0.079
9 DJ McCants Phoenix Vultures 4.0 4.0 54 6 24 0.098
9 Tre Braun Phoenix Vultures 4.0 4.0 66 11 30 0.117
9 Kylian Fontaine Phoenix Vultures 2.5 5.0 46 1 18 0.064 *
9 Jordan Kolaxis Philadelphia Warrio 3.5 4.0 55 12 30 0.110
9 Keyon McCoy Houston Lightning 3.5 3.5 58 8 26 0.116
9 Ðorde Petrović Cleveland Giants 3.5 3.5 38 3 23 0.073
9 Kaden Ford Dallas Predators 3.5 3.5 56 14 33 0.084
9 Demario George Toronto Huskies 2.0 2.0 0 16 35 0.000
9 Jordan Johnson Jr Vancouver Wolves 3.5 3.5 52 7 25 0.092
10 Waylan Loftin Dallas Predators 3.0 4.5 56 3 21 0.085
10 Triston Dantley Los Angeles Firebal 3.0 5.0 46 2 20 0.113 *
10 Evan Demery Kansas City Knights 3.0 3.0 57 9 29 0.072
10 Xavier Lowe Philadelphia Warrio 3.5 3.5 60 7 27 0.122
10 Anvar Makiev Oakland Tritons 3.0 4.5 38 1 21 0.082 *
10 Demitrius Burns Portland Lumberjack 4.0 4.0 64 10 28 0.144
10 Derrick Barnes St Louis Skyhawks 3.0 3.0 50 17 35 0.145
10 Tra'Vaughn Tauaefa Detroit Mustangs 3.0 3.0 51 6 27 0.082
10 Jamaya Patton Indiana Stonecutter 4.0 4.0 35 5 23 0.077
10 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Baron 4.0 4.5 71 14 32 0.187
10 Jamarcus Payne Minneapolis Blizzar 4.0 4.0 45 12 30 0.106
10 Bogdan Nikolic Dallas Predators 4.0 4.0 48 4 21 0.075
10 James Winters Washington Pilots 4.0 4.0 47 11 29 0.097
10 Coty Sima Indiana Stonecutter 4.0 4.0 49 8 28 0.096
11 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 3.5 3.5 67 11 30 0.159
11 Zion Buckner Mexico City Jaguars 3.5 3.5 54 14 32 0.158
11 Garrick Jurkin Denver Dragons 3.5 5.0 57 9 30 0.084
11 Antonio Lopez Kansas City Knights 3.5 3.5 60 12 30 0.141
11 Leonardo Bianchi Charlotte Drones 3.5 3.5 37 3 20 0.110
11 Dejon Wright Phoenix Vultures 3.5 3.5 56 8 27 0.130
11 Cassius LeVert Pittsburgh Vipers 3.0 3.0 51 7 26 0.082
11 Landon Battier New York Renegades 4.0 4.0 54 6 24 0.077
11 Al-Amir Geyen New Orleans Hurrica 3.5 3.5 45 4 24 0.103
11 Lance Jacobsen St Louis Skyhawks 3.0 3.0 49 10 30 0.084
11 Kaan Korkmaz Nashville Stars 2.5 3.5 29 1 22 -0.038 *
11 LaMarcus Quinn Denver Dragons 3.0 3.5 47 2 21 0.118 *
11 Detric Akenten Louisville Colonels 3.5 3.5 54 5 22 0.116
12 Guy Vasquez Los Angeles Firebal 3.5 3.5 57 8 26 0.090
12 DeLazarus Russell Las Vegas Scorpions 3.5 4.0 48 4 23 0.157
12 Lyles Heimuli Miami Cyclones 2.0 3.5 44 1 20 0.059 *
12 Axel Grenier Minneapolis Blizzar 3.0 3.0 50 13 32 0.038
12 McKinley Power Cleveland Giants 2.5 4.5 59 2 20 0.198 *
12 Omari Swift Baltimore Bullets 2.5 3.5 42 3 21 0.115
12 Mustapha Efianayi Houston Lightning 4.0 4.0 56 11 30 0.084
12 Gage Woodward Chicago Jailbirds 3.5 4.0 58 7 26 0.202
12 Ruben Miramontes Seattle Thunder 3.5 3.5 60 9 27 0.127
12 Jose Aguirre Portland Lumberjack 2.5 2.5 52 5 23 0.093
12 Tenzin Ozer Louisville Colonels 3.5 3.5 65 10 31 0.175
12 Tiago Fernandes Nashville Stars 4.0 4.0 39 6 23 -0.004
12 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves 4.0 4.0 71 12 29 0.160
* = young player (1-2 years pro), may not have reached peak yet
Picks 8-12 summary (n=69):
Mean CA: 3.39 | Median CA: 3.50
Mean Impact: 51.6 | Median Impact: 52.0
Best CA: 4.0 (Conner Pearson)
Worst CA: 2.0 (Nazir Link)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: PA REALIZATION RATE (CA/PA Ratio by Pick Range)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Do high picks realize their potential better than late picks?
CA/PA ratio: 1.0 = fully realized, <0.5 = significant unrealized potential
Pick Range N Avg CA/PA Median Min Max
--------------------------------------------------
1-3 41 0.913 1.000 0.50 1.00
4-5 27 0.932 1.000 0.78 1.00
6-10 61 0.966 1.000 0.67 1.00
11-20 97 0.977 1.000 0.70 1.00
21-40 114 0.981 1.000 0.70 1.00
41-60 47 0.978 1.000 0.75 1.00
61+ 13 0.980 1.000 0.86 1.00
Correlation: Draft Pick vs Realization: r=0.184 (p=0.0002)
Negative r = high picks realize PA better; positive = development is random
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DRAFT CLASS COMPARISON
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Season N Avg CA Avg PA Avg Impact Best CA
-------------------------------------------------
2032 2 2.50 2.50 51.0 3.0
2033 2 1.75 1.75 47.0 3.0
2034 6 2.75 2.83 48.0 3.5
2035 10 3.10 3.30 56.2 4.0
2036 23 3.24 3.37 55.2 4.0
2037 14 3.32 3.39 53.0 4.0
2038 19 3.66 3.76 58.6 5.0
2039 34 3.71 3.75 57.4 4.5
2040 29 3.78 3.97 60.2 4.5
2041 34 3.66 3.82 55.5 4.5
2042 25 3.70 3.84 55.8 4.5
2043 39 3.65 3.76 55.2 5.0
2044 34 3.62 3.74 52.2 5.0
2045 35 3.31 3.33 50.5 4.5
2046 46 3.24 3.36 48.9 4.5
2047 48 3.09 3.46 44.9 4.0
2048 54 2.72 3.46 44.2 4.0
2049 58 2.24 3.41 40.9 3.0
Strongest draft class: 2040 (avg CA 3.78)
Weakest draft class: 2033 (avg CA 1.75)
Note: Recent classes (2048-2049) have lower avg CA because players
haven't had time to develop yet -- compare only within similar age groups.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: OVERPERFORMERS & UNDERPERFORMERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOP 10 OVERPERFORMERS (Impact far above draft slot expectation)
Pick Name Team Impact Expected Surplus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
23 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 87 50 +37
1 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knigh 85 58 +26
15 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants 78 52 +26
4 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Bar 78 55 +23
1 Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds 81 58 +22
21 Jacob Nazarian Cincinnati Kings 72 50 +22
7 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings 73 52 +20
22 Cole Kopelani Salt Lake City Sa 70 50 +20
26 Sylvain Garcia Seattle Thunder 70 50 +20
23 Mario Moore Baltimore Bullets 69 50 +19
TOP 10 UNDERPERFORMERS (Impact far below draft slot expectation)
Pick Name Team Impact Expected Deficit
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Laurynas Linartas Atlanta Devils 34 58 -24
22 Caleb Donovan Indiana Stonecutt 32 50 -18
10 Jamaya Patton Indiana Stonecutt 35 52 -18
3 Cole Starkweather Phoenix Vultures 41 58 -18
1 Dominic Vukcevic Washington Pilots 41 58 -18
18 Malik Jefferson Toronto Huskies 35 52 -17
3 Jaleel Stripling Portland Lumberja 43 58 -16
11 Leonardo Bianchi Charlotte Drones 37 52 -15
9 Ðorde Petrović Cleveland Giants 38 52 -14
24 Brodrick White Pittsburgh Vipers 36 50 -14
BEST VALUE PICKS (Highest Impact from pick 21+)
Pick Name Team CA Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------
23 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 3.0 87
21 Jacob Nazarian Cincinnati Kings 3.5 72
22 Cole Kopelani Salt Lake City Sa 4.0 70
26 Sylvain Garcia Seattle Thunder 3.0 70
23 Mario Moore Baltimore Bullets 3.5 69
29 Austin Ross Baltimore Bullets 4.5 69
33 Nyika Nnamoko Minneapolis Blizz 3.5 68
45 Emanuel Autry Philadelphia Warr 3.5 67
35 Paolo Belli Charlotte Drones 3.5 65
30 Caius Thompson Philadelphia Warr 4.0 65
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: IMPLICATIONS FOR DENVER AT #10
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected value of a pick in the 6-10 range (n=61 veterans):
Median CA: 3.50 | Mean CA: 3.61
25th percentile CA: 3.50 | 75th percentile CA: 4.00
Median Impact: 52 | Mean Impact: 54
Picks 1-3 (n=41): avg CA 3.87, avg Impact 59, Star+ rate 63.4%
Picks 6-10 (n=61): avg CA 3.61, avg Impact 54, Star+ rate 44.3%
Picks 11-20 (n=97): avg CA 3.42, avg Impact 53, Star+ rate 27.8%
Trade scenario value deltas:
Trading UP to 1-3: avg CA gain = +0.26, avg Impact gain = +5
Trading DOWN to 11-20: avg CA loss = -0.18, avg Impact loss = -0
Interpretation:
- The value curve is FLAT in the 6-20 range: trading down costs
little in expected value while gaining additional assets.
- Trading down + acquiring a second asset may be optimal.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
1. Picks 6-10 have a 44% Star+ hit rate and 0% bust rate
2. Median outcome for a 6-10 pick: CA 3.5, Impact 52
3. Ratings matter but pedigree correlates with development environment,
coaching attention, and playing time -- all of which boost outcomes
4. Character screening remains critical -- busts at all pick ranges are
disproportionately character failures, not talent failures
========================================================================
END OF REPORT
========================================================================
19
Positional Analysis
====================================================================================================
POSITIONAL ANALYSIS — C vs PF vs Guard vs Wing
Generated: 2026-02-21 21:32
Qualified players: 349 (500+ minutes in 2049)
====================================================================================================
================================================================================
1. POSITION DISTRIBUTION & PHYSICAL PROFILES
================================================================================
Guard (n= 89):
Height: min=6'1" mean=6'4" median=6'5" max=6'10" SD=2.1"
Weight: min=170 mean=199 median=198 max=228
BPM: mean=+0.17 median=+0.20 SD=2.35
CA: mean=3.25 WS/48: mean=0.105
Wing (n= 38):
Height: min=6'3" mean=6'7" median=6'7" max=7'0" SD=2.0"
Weight: min=186 mean=208 median=205 max=237
BPM: mean=-1.19 median=-0.80 SD=3.06
CA: mean=2.80 WS/48: mean=0.053
PF (n=115):
Height: min=6'4" mean=6'8" median=6'8" max=7'1" SD=1.8"
Weight: min=193 mean=224 median=222 max=261
BPM: mean=+1.57 median=+2.10 SD=2.66
CA: mean=3.65 WS/48: mean=0.101
C (n=107):
Height: min=6'7" mean=6'10" median=6'11" max=7'7" SD=1.8"
Weight: min=209 mean=242 median=241 max=281
BPM: mean=+0.03 median=-0.50 SD=3.09
CA: mean=3.24 WS/48: mean=0.113
================================================================================
2. CENTER vs POWER FORWARD — SKILL PROFILE COMPARISON
================================================================================
Rating C avg PF avg Delta Significance
-------------------------------------------------------
OnBallD 5.7 15.2 +9.5 *** HUGE
PostExec 14.5 6.8 -7.7 *** HUGE
BallHand 6.4 13.7 +7.4 *** HUGE
Stealing 8.2 14.9 +6.6 *** HUGE
OffBallD 9.8 15.4 +5.7 *** HUGE
Spacing 6.9 13.0 +6.2 *** HUGE
Speed 6.7 12.3 +5.6 *** HUGE
ShootOD 4.9 10.7 +5.9 *** HUGE
IsoExec 11.0 15.4 +4.4 *** HUGE
Playmaking 7.5 13.2 +5.7 *** HUGE
3PT 11.3 15.7 +4.4 *** HUGE
FT 12.6 15.5 +2.9 *** HUGE
Quick 9.6 13.2 +3.7 *** HUGE
RimProt 16.9 12.6 -4.3 *** HUGE
PostDef 16.6 12.5 -4.1 *** HUGE
Gravity 10.1 14.6 +4.5 *** HUGE
OReb 16.1 12.5 -3.6 ** LARGE
DReb 16.5 13.2 -3.3 ** LARGE
Passing 10.6 14.2 +3.7 ** LARGE
Strength 15.5 12.1 -3.4 ** LARGE
1stStep 9.6 12.6 +3.0 ** LARGE
SelfCreate 11.9 15.1 +3.3 ** LARGE
MidRange 9.7 13.2 +3.5 ** LARGE
Athletic 11.3 13.5 +2.2 * MEDIUM
PnR 11.3 13.4 +2.1 * MEDIUM
FoulDraw 15.4 14.0 -1.4 . small
Endurance 9.4 11.1 +1.7 . small
BallDom 13.0 14.4 +1.4 . small
HelpD 14.3 15.3 +1.0 . small
Finishing 14.6 15.3 +0.7 . small
Inside 17.1 17.4 +0.3
BBIQ 14.8 15.1 +0.3
Effect sizes: *** huge (d>=1.0), ** large (d>=0.8), * medium (d>=0.5), . small (d>=0.2)
Significant differences (d >= 0.5): 25 of 32 ratings
================================================================================
3. WHICH STATS PREDICT PERFORMANCE — BY POSITION
(Pearson r of each rating vs BPM, RAPM, and WS/48)
================================================================================
Guard (n=89):
Rating r(BPM) r(RAPM) r(WS/48) Avg |r|
----------------------------------------------------
Inside +0.224 +0.405 +0.229 0.286 **
Playmaking +0.274 +0.149 +0.385 0.269 **
PostExec +0.240 +0.250 +0.258 0.249 **
Passing +0.130 +0.218 +0.364 0.237 **
HelpD +0.359 +0.120 +0.173 0.217 **
SelfCreate +0.217 +0.256 +0.178 0.217 **
3PT +0.205 +0.309 +0.132 0.215 **
PnR +0.283 +0.127 +0.205 0.205 **
Stealing +0.200 +0.233 +0.085 0.173 *
ShootOD +0.222 +0.134 +0.131 0.162 *
OReb +0.358 -0.079 -0.043 0.160 *
DReb +0.390 -0.075 +0.003 0.156 *
IsoExec +0.163 +0.200 +0.062 0.141
Spacing +0.154 +0.148 +0.100 0.134
FT +0.103 -0.061 +0.203 0.122
Finishing +0.061 +0.266 +0.038 0.122
Gravity -0.073 +0.276 +0.014 0.121
BallDom +0.140 +0.168 -0.045 0.118
BallHand +0.004 +0.223 +0.107 0.111
OnBallD +0.161 +0.130 -0.033 0.108
RimProt +0.100 -0.039 -0.182 0.107
Speed +0.142 +0.088 +0.089 0.107
BBIQ +0.089 +0.113 +0.076 0.092
Strength +0.046 +0.108 -0.110 0.088
FoulDraw +0.064 -0.028 +0.131 0.075
1stStep +0.002 -0.100 -0.110 0.071
MidRange +0.054 +0.124 -0.031 0.070
Quick +0.060 -0.096 +0.033 0.063
Athletic -0.043 -0.040 -0.105 0.063
OffBallD +0.063 +0.081 +0.026 0.057
PostDef +0.072 +0.063 -0.005 0.047
Endurance -0.041 +0.003 +0.070 0.038
Wing (n=38):
Rating r(BPM) r(RAPM) r(WS/48) Avg |r|
----------------------------------------------------
IsoExec +0.519 +0.612 +0.439 0.523 ***
3PT +0.457 +0.529 +0.358 0.448 ***
OffBallD +0.482 +0.285 +0.468 0.412 ***
Passing +0.432 +0.295 +0.476 0.401 ***
Quick +0.345 +0.280 +0.514 0.380 ***
BallHand +0.412 +0.230 +0.464 0.369 ***
Gravity +0.323 +0.223 +0.485 0.344 ***
OnBallD +0.356 +0.299 +0.261 0.306 ***
DReb +0.374 +0.237 +0.211 0.274 **
Playmaking +0.257 +0.107 +0.364 0.243 **
Finishing +0.299 +0.288 +0.134 0.240 **
SelfCreate +0.245 +0.283 +0.165 0.231 **
Spacing +0.302 +0.123 +0.220 0.215 **
PnR +0.277 +0.010 +0.347 0.211 **
MidRange +0.249 +0.172 +0.207 0.209 **
Inside +0.224 +0.222 +0.107 0.184 *
PostExec +0.253 +0.035 +0.261 0.183 *
RimProt -0.167 -0.115 -0.228 0.170 *
Athletic +0.280 +0.135 +0.080 0.165 *
ShootOD +0.264 +0.054 +0.154 0.157 *
Speed +0.194 +0.030 +0.229 0.151 *
FT +0.230 -0.009 +0.206 0.149
BBIQ +0.043 -0.276 -0.116 0.145
Strength +0.215 +0.107 +0.111 0.144
BallDom +0.224 +0.071 +0.105 0.133
Endurance +0.012 -0.175 +0.190 0.126
OReb +0.187 -0.039 -0.073 0.100
Stealing +0.099 +0.000 +0.197 0.099
1stStep -0.061 -0.006 -0.150 0.072
HelpD -0.057 -0.072 -0.038 0.056
FoulDraw +0.014 -0.032 +0.087 0.044
PostDef +0.013 +0.045 -0.030 0.029
PF (n=115):
Rating r(BPM) r(RAPM) r(WS/48) Avg |r|
----------------------------------------------------
3PT +0.465 +0.519 +0.236 0.407 ***
OffBallD +0.429 +0.263 +0.227 0.307 ***
BallHand +0.334 +0.198 +0.291 0.275 **
ShootOD +0.396 +0.088 +0.316 0.267 **
OnBallD +0.432 +0.188 +0.154 0.258 **
Speed +0.395 +0.101 +0.271 0.255 **
Spacing +0.365 +0.204 +0.127 0.232 **
DReb +0.190 +0.221 +0.254 0.222 **
Inside +0.264 +0.145 +0.242 0.217 **
Passing +0.283 +0.113 +0.220 0.205 **
BallDom +0.177 +0.227 +0.185 0.196 *
HelpD +0.242 +0.177 +0.156 0.192 *
Gravity +0.265 +0.142 +0.159 0.189 *
Stealing +0.355 +0.089 +0.120 0.188 *
PostDef -0.215 -0.121 -0.179 0.172 *
FT +0.202 +0.182 +0.122 0.169 *
FoulDraw +0.155 -0.073 +0.272 0.166 *
Quick +0.298 +0.063 +0.134 0.165 *
PostExec -0.308 -0.085 -0.088 0.160 *
RimProt -0.205 -0.084 -0.191 0.160 *
Endurance +0.144 -0.186 +0.071 0.134
1stStep +0.220 +0.116 +0.044 0.127
Playmaking +0.176 +0.030 +0.135 0.114
IsoExec +0.156 +0.054 +0.117 0.109
Athletic +0.152 +0.079 +0.065 0.099
PnR +0.068 -0.005 +0.207 0.093
MidRange +0.114 +0.108 -0.051 0.091
SelfCreate +0.148 -0.005 +0.120 0.091
OReb +0.054 +0.030 +0.150 0.078
BBIQ +0.033 -0.043 +0.072 0.049
Strength -0.081 +0.050 -0.002 0.045
Finishing -0.005 +0.041 +0.004 0.016
C (n=107):
Rating r(BPM) r(RAPM) r(WS/48) Avg |r|
----------------------------------------------------
Inside +0.396 +0.389 +0.356 0.380 ***
RimProt +0.321 +0.389 +0.387 0.365 ***
3PT +0.376 +0.421 +0.185 0.327 ***
ShootOD +0.383 +0.211 +0.297 0.297 **
OReb +0.307 +0.252 +0.309 0.289 **
Passing +0.538 +0.111 +0.190 0.280 **
FT +0.290 +0.184 +0.280 0.252 **
Finishing +0.191 +0.213 +0.335 0.246 **
PnR +0.352 +0.028 +0.335 0.238 **
DReb +0.146 +0.214 +0.331 0.230 **
Gravity +0.325 +0.118 +0.237 0.227 **
OnBallD +0.284 +0.166 +0.223 0.224 **
Playmaking +0.393 +0.080 +0.182 0.218 **
Endurance +0.220 +0.191 +0.207 0.206 **
PostDef +0.146 +0.329 +0.137 0.204 **
HelpD +0.150 +0.167 +0.271 0.196 *
Strength +0.103 +0.257 +0.228 0.196 *
BallHand +0.323 -0.081 +0.177 0.194 *
BallDom +0.293 +0.076 +0.147 0.172 *
SelfCreate +0.237 +0.044 +0.207 0.163 *
Spacing +0.272 +0.180 +0.007 0.153 *
FoulDraw +0.013 +0.157 +0.260 0.143
IsoExec +0.161 +0.169 +0.086 0.138
Athletic -0.139 -0.160 -0.038 0.112
Stealing +0.182 +0.067 +0.066 0.105
PostExec -0.022 +0.146 +0.139 0.102
Quick -0.079 -0.137 -0.044 0.087
OffBallD +0.153 -0.023 +0.050 0.075
BBIQ -0.020 +0.128 -0.060 0.070
MidRange +0.015 -0.058 -0.089 0.054
1stStep +0.015 -0.013 +0.090 0.039
Speed +0.040 -0.049 +0.028 0.039
================================================================================
4. C vs PF — PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES
================================================================================
Metric C mean C med PF mean PF med Delta
----------------------------------------------------
BPM 0.03 -0.50 1.57 2.10 +1.54
OBPM -1.52 -1.90 0.26 0.60 +1.78
DBPM 1.55 1.50 1.31 1.20 -0.24
RAPM 0.05 -0.10 0.75 1.00 +0.70
ORAPM -0.07 -0.40 0.53 0.70 +0.60
DRAPM 0.13 0.20 0.22 0.30 +0.09
WS/48 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 -0.01
PER 14.85 14.60 14.68 15.80 -0.16
PPG 10.25 9.00 13.23 13.10 +2.97
RPG 7.25 7.20 4.51 4.30 -2.74
APG 1.40 1.10 3.06 2.60 +1.66
CA 3.24 3.50 3.65 3.50 +0.41
================================================================================
5. PF/C INTERCHANGEABILITY — TWEENER ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Tweeners (fit_big >= 2.0 AND fit_wing >= 2.0): 110
Pure Bigs (fit_big >= 3.0 AND fit_wing <= 1.0): 80
Metric Tweener Pure Big Delta
------------------------------------------
BPM 2.07 0.10 +1.97
RAPM 0.94 0.28 +0.66
WS/48 0.11 0.11 -0.01
CA 3.78 3.44 +0.34
PPG 13.84 10.12 +3.72
RPG 4.66 7.26 -2.60
Height overlap between C and PF:
C height range: 6'7" - 7'7"
PF height range: 6'4" - 7'1"
Overlap zone: 6'7" - 7'1"
Cs in overlap: 102/107 (95%)
PFs in overlap: 103/115 (90%)
================================================================================
6. HEIGHT vs PERFORMANCE — BY POSITION
================================================================================
Guard (n=89):
Height vs BPM: r=+0.023
Height vs RAPM: r=-0.316
Height vs WS/48: r=-0.330
Wing (n=38):
Height vs BPM: r=-0.259
Height vs RAPM: r=-0.248
Height vs WS/48: r=-0.405
PF (n=115):
Height vs BPM: r=-0.283
Height vs RAPM: r=-0.144
Height vs WS/48: r=-0.166
C (n=107):
Height vs BPM: r=-0.007
Height vs RAPM: r=+0.159
Height vs WS/48: r=+0.162
================================================================================
7. TOP & BOTTOM PERFORMERS BY POSITION (by BPM)
================================================================================
TOP 10 Cs:
# Name Team Hgt BPM RAPM WS/48 CA Archetype
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons 7'2" +9.1 +6.8 0.263 4.5 Interior Playmaker
2 Stephon Carlton Cincinnati Kings 7'0" +8.0 +0.6 0.257 4.0 Interior Playmaker
3 Russell Boozer Cincinnati Kings 6'10" +7.9 +4.2 0.215 3.5 Interior Playmaker
4 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 6'10" +7.4 +7.2 0.204 4.5 Interior Playmaker
5 Lazar Dragovic Louisville Colonels 6'9" +7.0 +3.1 0.192 4.0 Roll-and-Cut Big
6 Sergio Ortuño Vancouver Wolves 7'1" +5.1 +3.6 0.162 4.0 Pick-and-Pop Big
7 Chibueze Gates Kansas City Knights 6'8" +4.5 +0.0 0.147 2.5 Roll-and-Cut Big
8 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights 6'10" +4.4 +5.9 0.228 5.0 Post Scorer
9 Antonio Lopez Kansas City Knights 6'10" +4.4 +2.3 0.141 3.0 Post Scorer
10 Stephon Hallice Mexico City Jaguars 6'10" +4.2 -0.5 0.136 3.0 Roll-and-Cut Big
BOTTOM 5 Cs:
1 Hakeem Martin Toronto Huskies 7'0" -4.4 -1.7 0.066 0.5 Post Scorer
2 Donte Black Nashville Stars 6'10" -4.9 -4.9 0.072 2.0 Roll-and-Cut Big
3 Eckhard Schneiders Houston Lightning 6'11" -5.3 -3.1 0.093 2.5 Post Scorer
4 Keshaun Freeman Dallas Predators 7'0" -6.2 -2.7 0.080 3.0 Roll-and-Cut Big
5 Denis Molodtsov St Louis Skyhawks 7'0" -6.9 -1.1 0.063 3.0 Post Scorer
TOP 10 PFs:
# Name Team Hgt BPM RAPM WS/48 CA Archetype
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves 6'6" +6.1 +3.7 0.160 4.5 Secondary Creator
2 Drake Walter Vancouver Wolves 6'8" +5.3 +3.7 0.177 4.5 Secondary Creator
3 LaMarcus Coleman Cleveland Giants 6'7" +5.2 +2.5 0.142 4.0 Secondary Creator
4 Arif Langston Chicago Jailbirds 6'8" +5.1 +1.1 0.146 3.5 Stationary Shooter
5 Jacob Nazarian Cincinnati Kings 6'4" +5.1 +2.3 0.197 4.0 Secondary Creator
6 John Jones Vancouver Wolves 6'8" +5.1 +2.5 0.165 4.5 Glue Guy
7 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons 6'10" +5.0 +3.1 0.187 3.5 Shot Creator
8 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 6'8" +4.9 +3.1 0.159 3.5 Secondary Creator
9 Jimmy Cougar III Cincinnati Kings 6'7" +4.8 +3.9 0.125 2.5 Stationary Shooter
10 Adam Hines Seattle Thunder 6'7" +4.8 +4.0 0.141 4.5 Movement Shooter
BOTTOM 5 PFs:
1 Jaylen Armstrong Nashville Stars 6'9" -4.6 -1.2 0.066 2.5 Versatile Big
2 Jarvis Cannon Oakland Tritons 6'11" -4.8 +2.8 0.007 3.5 Versatile Big
3 Kaleb Sterling St Louis Skyhawks 6'8" -5.1 -5.5 -0.005 2.5 Glue Guy
4 Raul Cardona Houston Lightning 6'9" -5.6 +2.3 -0.002 3.5 Versatile Big
5 Tiago Fernandes Nashville Stars 6'10" -6.3 -0.6 -0.004 3.0 Versatile Big
================================================================================
8. JURKIN POSITIONAL FIT — Can he play Center?
================================================================================
Player: Garrick Jurkin
Classified as: PF (confidence: high)
Height: 6'8", Weight: 222.0
Positional Fit: Guard=0.0, Wing=3.0, Big=4.5
Off Archetype: Glue Guy
Def Archetype: Helper
Rating Jurkin C avg C med vs avg
---------------------------------------------
RimProt 18 16.9 17 +1.1
PostDef 14 16.6 17 -2.6
PostExec 5 14.5 15 -9.5
DReb 18 16.5 17 +1.5
OReb 15 16.1 17 -1.1
Strength 10 15.5 16 -5.5
Inside 17 17.1 17 -0.1
PnR 9 11.3 11 -2.3
HelpD 14 14.3 15 -0.3
Endurance 19 9.4 9 +9.6
================================================================================
9. KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS
================================================================================
Q1: Are C and PF meaningfully different positions?
Skill differences: 16 huge, 23 large, 25 medium (of 32)
Height gap: C avg 6'10" vs PF avg 6'8"
BPM gap: C avg +0.03 vs PF avg +1.57
Q2: Which stats matter most for winning?
C top predictors: Inside (0.380), RimProt (0.365), 3PT (0.327)
PF top predictors: 3PT (0.407), OffBallD (0.307), BallHand (0.275)
Q3: Is PF/C interchangeability justified?
Height overlap: 6'7"-7'1"
Tweeners: 110 players have dual big/wing fit
20
Trade Predictor
====================================================================================================
20 - TRADE PREDICTOR
====================================================================================================
Methodology:
- Trade history: 410 unique trades extracted from 36 team files
- Pick value curve: smoothed from 512 drafted players in draft bridge
- Player trade value: Impact 65% + Current Ability 15% + Contract 5% + Upside 10% + Premium 5% + Youth/Pedigree 15% (calibrated, exp=1.25)
- Balance calibrated against 381 trades with complete data
====================================================================================================
SECTION 1: TRADE HISTORY SUMMARY
====================================================================================================
Total unique trades: 410
Multi-team trades: 6
Player-for-player: 70
Player+picks (mixed): 337
Picks only: 0
Trades by season:
2049: 60 trades
2048: 55 trades
2047: 49 trades
2046: 52 trades
2045: 31 trades
2044: 49 trades
2043: 35 trades
2042: 18 trades
2041: 17 trades
2040: 14 trades
2039: 12 trades
2038: 2 trades
2037: 8 trades
2036: 3 trades
2035: 3 trades
2033: 1 trades
2032: 1 trades
====================================================================================================
SECTION 2: PICK VALUE CURVE
====================================================================================================
Pick Expected Impact Tier
------------------------------------
# 1 56.0 Lottery
# 5 54.6
# 10 54.3 Mid-1st
# 15 53.7
# 20 55.1 Late-1st
# 25 55.1
# 30 51.6
# 36 49.8 Top-2nd
# 42 53.1
# 50 47.2 Mid-2nd
# 60 44.7
# 72 10.0 Late-2nd
====================================================================================================
SECTION 3: HISTORICAL TRADE PATTERNS
====================================================================================================
Trades with balance data: 381
Mean balance: 0.098
Median balance: 0.114
Std deviation: 0.693
'Fair' trades (|balance| < 0.10): 37 (10%)
Lopsided trades (|balance| > 0.30): 251 (66%)
Biggest value imbalances:
[2049] Balance -1.000 <<< The Stars traded Cory Collins-Carter to the Vultures for James Panzini, Kellen Hendy and Archer Clarke, along with the 2
[2049] Balance -1.000 <<< The Saints traded Jermaine Clark and Kavon Bedford to the Devils for Toso Benhayoune and Joseph Swan, along with the 205
[2049] Balance -1.000 <<< The Thunder traded Erick Foster to the Tritons for Adam Hines.
[2035] Balance +1.000 >>> The Jailbirds traded Deleon Slay, Spencer Allen, Julius Chambers and Vincent Harper, along with the 2037 Jailbirds 1st R
[2033] Balance +1.000 >>> The Lumberjacks traded Spencer Gellineau, Antoine Willis and Derrick Barnes, along with the 2035 Lumberjacks 1st Round P
[2032] Balance +1.000 >>> The Fireballs traded Idris Berkley, Aaron Nwabuzor, Jerome Tokoto and Marcus Richardson, along with the 2033 Fireballs 1
21
Draft Development
================================================================================
21 - DRAFT PICK DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Total players: 523 | Drafted: 435 | UDFA: 88
Young players (1-2 yrs pro): 107 (flagged separately)
Purpose: Inform trade-up/trade-down decisions at Denver's #10 and #72 picks
by analyzing historical development patterns across the full draft.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: PICK VALUE CURVE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean outcomes by pick range (all players, including young/developing):
Pick Range N CA SD Impact SD WS/48 MPG
----------------------------------------------------------
1-3 45 4.53 0.63 55.7 15.8 0.105 29.8
4-7 55 4.45 0.69 53.9 13.1 0.105 27.0
8-12 62 4.28 0.52 51.7 12.3 0.103 24.3
13-20 74 4.01 0.68 49.5 13.1 0.093 20.4
21-36 112 3.91 0.68 49.9 11.8 0.098 18.9
37-50 49 3.62 0.62 46.5 8.0 0.080 15.0
51-65 29 3.59 0.70 47.0 8.9 0.067 12.9
66-72 9 3.39 1.11 48.3 4.0 0.028 5.4
Correlation: Draft Pick vs CA: r=-0.408 (p=0.0000)
Correlation: Draft Pick vs Impact: r=-0.199 (p=0.0000)
Correlation: Draft Pick vs WS/48: r=-0.185 (p=0.0001)
(Negative r = higher picks have better outcomes, as expected)
Key insight: The value curve is steep at the top (1-3), flattens
through the mid-first round (8-20), then drops sharply into round 2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: HIT RATES BY PICK RANGE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier definitions (Impact Score primary, CA secondary):
Elite: Impact >= 85 (MVP/All-League)
Star: Impact >= 70 (All-Star level)
Starter: Impact >= 55 (Above avg starter)
Below Avg: Impact >= 45 (Below avg)
Bust: Impact < 45 AND MPG < 15
Pick Range N Elite% Star% Starter% Below% Bust%
-----------------------------------------------------------
1-3 39 2.6% 23.1% 69.2% 15.4% 0.0%
4-7 47 2.1% 12.8% 55.3% 38.3% 0.0%
8-12 52 0.0% 11.5% 44.2% 36.5% 0.0%
13-20 58 0.0% 6.9% 44.8% 39.7% 5.2%
21-36 81 2.5% 7.4% 39.5% 48.1% 2.5%
37-50 29 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 51.7% 6.9%
51-65 16 0.0% 0.0% 31.2% 50.0% 0.0%
66-72 6 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 16.7% (caution: small sample)
(Excludes players with <=2 years pro experience -- too early to judge)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEVELOPMENT STAGE ANALYSIS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PA-CA gap as proxy for development stage (large gap = still developing).
Cross-sectional view by years_pro within pick tiers.
Pick Tier Years Pro N Avg CA Avg PA PA-CA Gap
-------------------------------------------------------
Top-3 1 3 3.17 4.67 1.50
Top-3 2 3 4.17 4.83 0.67
Top-3 3 3 4.00 3.50 -0.50
Top-3 4 3 4.50 4.50 0.00
Top-3 5 3 5.00 4.33 -0.67
Top-3 6 3 4.83 4.67 -0.17
Top-3 7 3 5.00 5.00 0.00
Top-3 8 3 5.00 5.00 0.00
Top-3 9 3 4.67 4.17 -0.50
Top-3 10 3 4.83 3.83 -1.00
Top-3 11 3 5.00 3.17 -1.83
Top-3 12 3 4.83 4.33 -0.50
Top-3 13 3 4.67 3.33 -1.33
Lottery 1 11 3.05 4.14 1.09
Lottery 2 11 4.00 4.36 0.36
Lottery 3 11 4.00 3.41 -0.59
Lottery 4 11 4.45 3.73 -0.73
Lottery 5 10 4.30 3.20 -1.10
Lottery 6 10 4.60 3.50 -1.10
Lottery 7 11 4.55 3.45 -1.09
Lottery 8 10 4.65 3.50 -1.15
Lottery 9 10 4.65 3.65 -1.00
Lottery 10 11 4.64 3.50 -1.14
Lottery 11 10 4.85 3.40 -1.45
Lottery 12 10 4.60 3.40 -1.20
Lottery 13 4 3.62 2.00 -1.62
Lottery 14 6 4.50 3.75 -0.75
Lottery 15 4 4.25 3.38 -0.88
Mid-1st 1 22 3.02 3.61 0.59
Mid-1st 2 21 3.36 4.10 0.74
Mid-1st 3 16 3.91 3.25 -0.66
Mid-1st 4 12 3.92 2.88 -1.04
Mid-1st 5 11 3.82 2.55 -1.27
Mid-1st 6 13 4.31 2.92 -1.38
Mid-1st 7 13 4.35 3.04 -1.31
Mid-1st 8 6 4.42 3.08 -1.33
Mid-1st 9 7 4.57 3.14 -1.43
Mid-1st 10 11 4.64 3.50 -1.14
Mid-1st 11 14 4.46 3.07 -1.39
Mid-1st 12 5 3.90 2.60 -1.30
Mid-1st 14 8 4.00 2.44 -1.56
2nd Round 1 21 2.90 3.10 0.19
2nd Round 2 15 3.17 3.17 0.00
2nd Round 3 12 3.67 3.21 -0.46
2nd Round 4 10 3.85 2.95 -0.90
2nd Round 5 5 4.00 2.60 -1.40
2nd Round 6 4 4.00 2.38 -1.62
2nd Round 7 6 4.42 3.42 -1.00
2nd Round 8 3 4.50 3.00 -1.50
2nd Round 9 6 4.42 2.83 -1.58
Survivorship bias note: Sample sizes decrease with years_pro as players
leave the league. Veterans represent successful cohorts, not full draft class.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean CA and Impact by position within pick ranges (cells with n>=20 only).
Pick Range Position N Avg CA Avg Impact
----------------------------------------------
8-12 C 20 4.40 52.4
13-20 C 21 4.17 51.7
21-36 PG 25 4.10 53.0
21-36 PF 21 4.10 55.3
21-36 C 26 4.25 54.9
Note: Many cells omitted due to n<20. Positional variance is high.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: OVER/UNDER-PERFORMERS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Players with Impact far above/below draft position expectation.
TOP 10 OVERPERFORMERS (Impact far above draft slot expectation)
Pick Name Team Impact Expected Surplus
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 90 53 +37
22 Cole Kopelani Mexico City Jaguars 86 53 +33
4 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Baron 86 55 +31
15 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants 77 52 +25
1 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights 85 60 +25
10 Demitrius Burns Portland Lumberjack 77 52 +24
10 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Baron 76 52 +24
29 Austin Ross Baltimore Bullets 76 53 +23
13 Karim Zouita Boston Crusaders 75 52 +23
1 Devonte Bell Chicago Jailbirds 83 60 +23
TOP 10 UNDERPERFORMERS (Impact far below draft slot expectation)
Pick Name Team Impact Expected Deficit
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Laurynas Linartas Atlanta Devils 29 60 -31
3 Jaleel Stripling Portland Lumberjack 32 60 -28
1 Dominic Vukcevic Washington Pilots 35 60 -25
14 Horace Hammer Pittsburgh Vipers 28 52 -24
22 Caleb Donovan Indiana Stonecutter 31 53 -22
2 Patrik Jurecka New Orleans Hurrica 39 60 -21
3 Cole Starkweather Phoenix Vultures 39 60 -21
18 Malik Jefferson Toronto Huskies 31 52 -21
12 Omari Swift Baltimore Bullets 32 52 -20
40 Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators 29 49 -20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: DRAFT CLASS COMPARISON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average CA and Impact by draft season (class strength variance).
Season N Avg CA Avg Impact Best CA
-----------------------------------------
2034 3 4.00 47.3 4.5
2035 8 3.94 59.1 5.0
2036 18 4.03 60.2 5.0
2037 8 4.06 57.2 5.0
2038 18 4.44 61.1 5.0
2039 29 4.64 59.2 5.0
2040 26 4.65 60.8 5.0
2041 26 4.58 58.0 5.0
2042 22 4.61 59.4 5.0
2043 33 4.48 55.6 5.0
2044 30 4.42 52.3 5.0
2045 29 4.14 48.9 5.0
2046 36 4.11 48.5 5.0
2047 42 3.87 44.6 5.0
2048 50 3.49 41.2 5.0
2049 57 2.99 36.8 4.0
Strongest draft class: 2040 (avg CA 4.65)
Weakest draft class: 2049 (avg CA 2.99)
Note: Recent classes have lower avg CA due to limited development time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DENVER SUMMARY (#10 AND #72 PICK RANGES)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PICK #10 RANGE (Picks 8-12, n=52 veterans):
Expected CA: 4.50 median, 4.42 mean
Expected Impact: 52 median, 54 mean
25th-75th %ile: CA 4.00-4.50
Star rate: 11.5%
Bust rate: 0.0%
Best outcomes:
Pick 10: Demitrius Burns - CA 4.5, Impact 77
Pick 10: Marco De Luca - CA 4.5, Impact 76
Pick 12: Kostas Zonas - CA 5.0, Impact 75
Worst outcomes:
Pick 12: Omari Swift - CA 3.5, Impact 32
Pick 9: Kaimyn Fry - CA 4.0, Impact 35
Pick 9: Ðorde Petrović - CA 4.5, Impact 36
PICK #72 RANGE (Picks 66-72, n=6 veterans):
Expected CA: 4.00 median, 3.92 mean
Expected Impact: 49 median, 49 mean
25th-75th %ile: CA 3.62-4.00
Star rate: 0.0%
Bust rate: 16.7%
Best outcomes:
Pick 69: Mathieu Rogers - CA 3.0, Impact 55
Pick 66: Markise Stelly - CA 4.0, Impact 50
Pick 67: Yanis Lopes - CA 3.5, Impact 49
Worst outcomes:
Pick 68: Quintin Tomlinson - CA 4.0, Impact 44
Pick 66: Ellis Kennedy - CA 5.0, Impact 47
Pick 67: Yanis Lopes - CA 3.5, Impact 49
KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR DENVER:
1. Pick #10 has ~12% chance of All-Star level player
2. Value curve flattens significantly after pick ~15 (trade-down opportunity)
3. Pick #72 is deep in the value tail - focus on high-floor role players
4. Character screening remains critical at all draft positions
================================================================================
END OF REPORT
================================================================================
23
Tendency Analysis
================================================================================
23 - PLAY STYLE TENDENCY ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Qualified players: 345 (min 20 games, 500 minutes)
Tendency dimensions: Driving, Roll:Pop, C&S:Pull-Up, Corner3:ATB
Outcomes: BPM, WS/48, Impact Score
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: LEAGUE-WIDE CORRELATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tendency Outcome Method r p n
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Roll % (vs Pop) impact Pearson -0.181 0.0007 345
Roll % (vs Pop) BPM Spearman -0.173 0.0012 345
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) WS/48 Pearson 0.156 0.0037 345
Driving Frequency impact Spearman -0.145 0.0068 345
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) WS/48 Spearman 0.135 0.0123 345
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) impact Pearson 0.128 0.0174 345
Roll % (vs Pop) WS/48 Pearson 0.111 0.0391 345
Driving Frequency BPM Spearman -0.083 0.1236 345
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) impact Pearson 0.073 0.1738 345
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) BPM Pearson 0.072 0.1802 345
Driving Frequency WS/48 Pearson -0.042 0.4346 345
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) BPM Pearson 0.038 0.4817 345
KEY FINDINGS:
1. Roll % (vs Pop) has negative correlation with impact (r=-0.181, Pearson)
2. Roll % (vs Pop) has negative correlation with BPM (r=-0.173, Spearman)
3. Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) has positive correlation with WS/48 (r=0.156, Pearson)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: POSITION-STRATIFIED CORRELATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PG (n=84):
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) BPM r=+0.262 (n=84)
Driving Frequency BPM r=+0.070 (n=84)
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) BPM r=+0.067 (n=84)
SG (n=19):
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) BPM r=+0.563 (n=19)
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) BPM r=+0.348 (n=19)
Roll % (vs Pop) BPM r=-0.227 (n=19)
SF (n=39):
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) BPM r=+0.273 (n=39)
Roll % (vs Pop) BPM r=+0.188 (n=39)
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) BPM r=+0.162 (n=39)
PF (n=92):
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) BPM r=+0.220 (n=92)
Roll % (vs Pop) BPM r=-0.188 (n=92)
Driving Frequency BPM r=+0.175 (n=92)
C (n=111):
Driving Frequency BPM r=-0.294 (n=111)
Roll % (vs Pop) BPM r=-0.208 (n=111)
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) BPM r=-0.188 (n=111)
POSITION-SPECIFIC PATTERNS:
Driving Frequency: Strongest effect in Cs (r=-0.294)
Roll % (vs Pop): Strongest effect in SGs (r=-0.227)
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up): Strongest effect in SGs (r=0.563)
Corner 3 % (vs ATB): Strongest effect in SGs (r=0.348)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DENVER TENDENCY GAPS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver roster: 8 qualified players
Position Tendency Denver League Gap
------------------------------------------------------------
PG Driving Frequency 50.0 55.1 -5.1
PG Roll % (vs Pop) 15.5 24.1 -8.6
PG Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) 60.0 51.0 +9.0
PG Corner 3 % (vs ATB) 65.5 59.9 +5.6
SF Driving Frequency 48.0 57.0 -9.0
SF Roll % (vs Pop) 29.5 22.2 +7.3
SF Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) 75.0 54.4 +20.6
SF Corner 3 % (vs ATB) 64.5 59.2 +5.3
PF Driving Frequency 46.5 58.8 -12.2
PF Roll % (vs Pop) 30.0 32.4 -2.4
PF Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) 49.0 65.0 -16.0
PF Corner 3 % (vs ATB) 44.0 56.3 -12.3
C Driving Frequency 52.0 49.5 +2.5
C Roll % (vs Pop) 60.0 70.8 -10.8
C Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) 96.0 83.2 +12.8
C Corner 3 % (vs ATB) 56.5 56.3 +0.2
ACTIONABLE GAPS (Denver differs from league on win-correlated tendency):
PG Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up): +9.0 surplus (r=0.262 with BPM)
SF Driving Frequency: -9.0 deficit (r=-0.156 with BPM)
SF Roll % (vs Pop): +7.3 surplus (r=0.188 with BPM)
SF Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up): +20.6 surplus (r=0.162 with BPM)
SF Corner 3 % (vs ATB): +5.3 surplus (r=0.273 with BPM)
PF Driving Frequency: -12.2 deficit (r=0.175 with BPM)
PF Corner 3 % (vs ATB): -12.3 deficit (r=0.220 with BPM)
C Roll % (vs Pop): -10.8 deficit (r=-0.208 with BPM)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: ARCHETYPE PERFORMANCE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DRIVER ARCHETYPES:
Drive-First n=121 BPM= 0.08 Impact= 48.9
Examples: Devonte Bell, Derrick Lynch, Russell Boozer
Balanced Driver n=110 BPM= 0.77 Impact= 52.7
Examples: Stanley Amakor, Cedric Rodgers, Austin Ross
Non-Driver n=114 BPM= 0.40 Impact= 52.0
Examples: Veljko Pavlovic, Cole Kopelani, Kavian Hawes
SHOOTER ARCHETYPES:
C&S Specialist n=117 BPM= 0.27 Impact= 52.2
Examples: Stanley Amakor, Veljko Pavlovic, Cole Kopelani
Balanced Shooter n=112 BPM= 0.72 Impact= 52.6
Examples: Devonte Bell, Alzee Sessoms, Austin Ross
Pull-Up Heavy n=116 BPM= 0.23 Impact= 48.6
Examples: Kavian Hawes, Derrick Lynch, Cedric Rodgers
ROLLER ARCHETYPES:
Roll Man n=116 BPM=-0.19 Impact= 48.0
Examples: Veljko Pavlovic, Demitrius Burns, Marco De Luca
Balanced Roller n=106 BPM= 0.61 Impact= 51.7
Examples: Cole Kopelani, Devonte Bell, Derrick Lynch
Pop Specialist n=123 BPM= 0.78 Impact= 53.5
Examples: Stanley Amakor, Kavian Hawes, Cedric Rodgers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: INTERACTION EFFECTS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Theory-driven interactions tested (Bonferroni correction: alpha=0.025):
Driving x C&S:
Theory: Driving creates catch-and-shoot opportunities
R² delta: 0.0021 (Not meaningful - threshold 0.02)
n=345
Roll x Corner3:
Theory: Roll man sets up corner 3s
R² delta: 0.0073 (Not meaningful - threshold 0.02)
n=345
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: DENVER RECOMMENDATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIONABLE PATTERNS FOR DENVER:
2. Denver SFs are above league average in Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) (gap=+20.6).
3. Pop Specialist archetype has highest mean Impact (53.5).
Top performers: Stanley Amakor, Kavian Hawes, Cedric Rodgers
Prioritize this archetype in scouting.
================================================================================
END OF REPORT
================================================================================
24
Coaching Philosophy
================================================================================
24 - COACHING PHILOSOPHY ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Analysis approach: Dual-source (declared coach + roster-derived)
Teams analyzed: 36
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: PHILOSOPHY-WIN% CORRELATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Roster proficiency correlations with team win% (n=36 teams):
Philosophy r p n
--------------------------------------------------
Triangle 0.218 0.2023 36
Seven Seconds 0.167 0.3308 36
Post Centric 0.163 0.3407 36
Pace And Space 0.131 0.4472 36
Perimeter Centric 0.060 0.7290 36
Balanced -0.079 0.6452 36
Morey Ball -0.209 0.2204 36
Grit And Grind -0.490 0.0024 36
KEY FINDINGS:
1. Triangle has positive correlation with winning (r=0.218)
2. Seven Seconds has positive correlation with winning (r=0.167)
3. Post Centric has positive correlation with winning (r=0.163)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: COACH-ROSTER ALIGNMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Teams with coach-roster philosophy mismatches: 17
Team Declared Inferred Win%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Austin Rockets Triangle Balanced 0.689
Atlanta Devils Pace & Space Pace And Space 0.651
Nashville Stars Post Centric Balanced 0.651
Miami Cyclones Morey Ball Balanced 0.639
Chicago Jailbirds Pace & Space Pace And Space 0.629
Kansas City Knights Morey Ball Balanced 0.621
San Diego Calaveras Pace & Space Pace And Space 0.614
Minneapolis Blizzards Pace & Space Pace And Space 0.611
Los Angeles Fireballs Pace & Space Pace And Space 0.600
Indiana Stonecutters Pace & Space Pace And Space 0.590
Charlotte Drones Triangle Balanced 0.588
Oakland Tritons Seven Seconds Balanced 0.578
Vancouver Wolves Pace & Space Pace And Space 0.573
Seattle Thunder Morey Ball Pace And Space 0.570
Detroit Mustangs Balanced Morey Ball 0.562
Philadelphia Warriors Pace & Space Balanced 0.556
New Orleans Hurricanes Morey Ball Balanced 0.500
NOTE: Mismatches don't necessarily indicate problems - could reflect
recent roster changes, system transitions, or flexible coaching.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DENVER COACH EVALUATION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT FIT:
Head Coach Philosophy: Balanced
Roster-Derived Philosophy: Balanced
Mismatch: No
Win%: 0.354
ROSTER STRENGTHS:
Balanced 20.0
Morey Ball 13.5
Grit And Grind 7.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: IDEAL DENVER SYSTEM PROFILE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED PHILOSOPHY: Balanced
Reasoning: Roster strongest in Balanced (score 20.0)
LEAGUE-WIDE CONTEXT:
Best-correlating philosophy: Triangle
(r=0.218 with win%, n=36 teams)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: RECOMMENDATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOR DENVER:
1. Coach-roster alignment: GOOD
Current philosophy (Balanced) matches roster.
2. Maximize roster's Balanced strength
(proficiency score 20.0).
3. League data suggests Triangle correlates strongly
with winning (r=0.218).
Evaluate fit for Denver's competitive window.
================================================================================
END OF REPORT
================================================================================
25
Philosophy Modifiers
================================================================================
PHILOSOPHY-SPECIFIC WIN VALUE MODIFIERS
Players: 349 (>500 min)
Scale factor: 0.15, Min |r|: 0.1, Max p: 0.05
Modifier range: [0.8, 1.2]
================================================================================
--- Balanced (prof_balanced) ---
Mean r: 0.0989
Top boosted:
Ball Dominance modifier=1.0327 r=+0.317 p=0.000
Inside Shooting modifier=1.0232 r=+0.253 p=0.000
Free Throws modifier=1.0166 r=+0.210 p=0.000
Gravity modifier=1.0154 r=+0.202 p=0.000
Pick & Roll Execution modifier=1.0132 r=+0.187 p=0.000
Adjusted skills: 13/32
--- Grit & Grind (prof_grit_and_grind) ---
Mean r: 0.0297
Top boosted:
Rim Protection modifier=1.0187 r=+0.154 p=0.004
Ball Dominance modifier=1.0184 r=+0.152 p=0.004
Inside Shooting modifier=1.0169 r=+0.143 p=0.008
Pick & Roll Execution modifier=1.0143 r=+0.125 p=0.019
Offensive Rebounding modifier=1.0140 r=+0.123 p=0.021
Top penalized:
Athleticism modifier=0.9782 r=-0.116 p=0.031
Adjusted skills: 7/32
--- Morey Ball (prof_morey_ball) ---
Mean r: 0.0967
Top boosted:
Inside Shooting modifier=1.0290 r=+0.290 p=0.000
3PT Shooting modifier=1.0239 r=+0.256 p=0.000
On-Ball Perimeter Defense modifier=1.0147 r=+0.195 p=0.000
Shoot Off Dribble modifier=1.0134 r=+0.186 p=0.000
Basketball IQ modifier=1.0110 r=+0.170 p=0.001
Adjusted skills: 13/32
--- Pace & Space (prof_pace_and_space) ---
Mean r: 0.1285
Top boosted:
Inside Shooting modifier=1.0351 r=+0.363 p=0.000
Ball Dominance modifier=1.0230 r=+0.282 p=0.000
Finishing modifier=1.0163 r=+0.237 p=0.000
3PT Shooting modifier=1.0162 r=+0.237 p=0.000
Isolation Execution modifier=1.0146 r=+0.226 p=0.000
Top penalized:
Mid-Range Shooting modifier=0.9983 r=+0.117 p=0.029
Offensive Rebounding modifier=0.9989 r=+0.121 p=0.023
Defensive Rebounding modifier=0.9991 r=+0.122 p=0.022
Strength modifier=0.9993 r=+0.124 p=0.021
Adjusted skills: 22/32
--- Perimeter Centric (prof_perimeter_centric) ---
Mean r: 0.0064
Adjusted skills: 0/32
--- Post Centric (prof_post_centric) ---
Mean r: 0.0449
Top boosted:
Ball Dominance modifier=1.0226 r=+0.196 p=0.000
Inside Shooting modifier=1.0149 r=+0.144 p=0.007
Ball Handling modifier=1.0123 r=+0.127 p=0.017
Mid-Range Shooting modifier=1.0122 r=+0.127 p=0.018
Basketball IQ modifier=1.0121 r=+0.126 p=0.019
Adjusted skills: 6/32
--- Seven Seconds (prof_seven_seconds) ---
Mean r: -0.0110
Top boosted:
Offensive Rebounding modifier=1.0224 r=+0.138 p=0.010
Defensive Rebounding modifier=1.0186 r=+0.113 p=0.035
Strength modifier=1.0175 r=+0.106 p=0.048
Ball Dominance modifier=1.0174 r=+0.105 p=0.050
Top penalized:
Stealing modifier=0.9781 r=-0.157 p=0.003
Shoot Off Dribble modifier=0.9835 r=-0.121 p=0.024
Foul Drawing modifier=0.9856 r=-0.107 p=0.046
Adjusted skills: 7/32
--- Triangle (prof_triangle) ---
Mean r: -0.0080
Top penalized:
Post Defense modifier=0.9827 r=-0.123 p=0.021
Endurance modifier=0.9846 r=-0.111 p=0.039
Adjusted skills: 2/32
================================================================================
SUMMARY
================================================================================
Non-1.0 modifiers: 70
Range: [0.9781, 1.0351]
Mean non-1.0: 1.0085
25
Scouting Prose Mining
================================================================================
25 - SCOUTING PROSE TEXT MINING ANALYSIS
================================================================================
**DATA SOURCE NOTE:**
Prose source: derived
These are descriptive phrases generated from ratings using position-relative
thresholds, NOT scraped freeform scout-written text. Correlations measure which
rating-derived descriptors map to success metrics.
Sample sizes:
Total recruits: 849
With college_ridge: 849
With pro_ridge: 5
Position breakdown:
C ( Big): 258
PF ( Big): 155
PG (Guard): 177
SF ( Wing): 116
SG (Guard): 143
================================================================================
SECTION 1: Top 50 Phrases by Frequency
================================================================================
1. limited (n=2222)
2. average (n=2157)
3. defense (n=1798)
4. elite (n=1306)
5. offense (n=849)
6. strong (n=778)
7. big (n=775)
8. post (n=613)
9. endurance (n=529)
10. steal (n=469)
11. strength (n=451)
12. ball (n=449)
13. finish (n=438)
14. big offense (n=406)
15. first (n=406)
16. step (n=406)
17. first step (n=406)
18. playmaking (n=403)
19. big defense (n=369)
20. athleticism (n=355)
21. gravity (n=340)
22. shooting (n=330)
23. quickness (n=325)
24. passing (n=323)
25. roll (n=313)
26. perimeter (n=312)
27. ball perimeter (n=312)
28. perimeter defense (n=312)
29. cut (n=311)
30. roll cut (n=311)
31. cut big (n=311)
32. post defense (n=308)
33. anchor (n=294)
34. offense anchor (n=294)
35. anchor big (n=294)
36. defense average (n=280)
37. basketball (n=275)
38. iq (n=275)
39. basketball iq (n=275)
40. spacing (n=272)
41. execution (n=240)
42. post execution (n=238)
43. handling (n=224)
44. defense limited (n=220)
45. limited steal (n=217)
46. point (n=202)
47. attack (n=202)
48. offense point (n=202)
49. point attack (n=202)
50. attack defense (n=202)
================================================================================
SECTION 2: Pro Signal Validation
================================================================================
Testing known pro signals (from 457-player pro analysis) on HS data.
HS sample: 849 college_ridge, 5 pro_ridge
Phrase Section Pro_r HS_Col_r HS_Pro_r Val? Interpretation
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
coachable strengths -0.202 nan nan NO faint praise - nothing better to highlig
coachable overview -0.155 nan nan NO faint praise signal persists across sect
motor strengths -0.100 nan nan NO faint praise - real talent gets praised
work ethic strengths -0.100 nan nan NO faint praise
competitive strengths -0.150 nan nan NO faint praise
energy strengths -0.100 nan nan NO faint praise
reads weaknesses -0.225 nan nan NO strongest skill-weakness signal - genuin
versatile overview 0.210 nan nan NO best positive skill signal
turnovers weaknesses 0.173 nan nan NO positive - means high usage/ball respons
================================================================================
SECTION 3: Novel HS Signals
================================================================================
Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold: alpha=0.000211
Signals NOT in pro reference list: 106
Phrase Count Col_r Col_p Pro_r Pro_p Sig
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
offense chaser 118 0.163 0.000002 0.938 0.018164 College
chaser 118 0.163 0.000002 0.938 0.018164 College
chaser defense 118 0.163 0.000002 0.938 0.018164 College
distributor offense 160 0.187 0.000000 -0.938 0.018164 College
roll 313 -0.547 0.000000 0.938 0.018164 College
wing 96 0.243 0.000000 0.938 0.018164 College
distributor 160 0.187 0.000000 -0.938 0.018164 College
needs development 165 0.165 0.000001 0.938 0.018164 College
development 165 0.165 0.000001 0.938 0.018164 College
execution 240 -0.192 0.000000 0.938 0.018164 College
shooting limited 79 -0.232 0.000000 0.938 0.018164 College
needs 165 0.165 0.000001 0.938 0.018164 College
steal 469 0.135 0.000076 -0.704 0.184609 College
strong 778 0.159 0.000003 0.671 0.215026 College
elite ball 130 0.272 0.000000 0.609 0.276023 College
elite 1306 0.522 0.000000 0.563 0.323569 College
limited ball 93 -0.171 0.000001 -0.563 0.323569 College
defense limited 220 -0.245 0.000000 -0.563 0.323569 College
handling 224 0.248 0.000000 -0.563 0.323569 College
roll cut 311 -0.553 0.000000 nan nan College
================================================================================
SECTION 4: Cross-Level Transfer Analysis
================================================================================
Baseline college-pro correlation: r=0.131
Transfer type counts:
direct: 27
mediated: 23
Top signals by transfer type:
DIRECT:
offense chaser HS->Col: 0.163, HS->Pro: 0.938, Pro_ref: nan, Direct: 0.917
chaser HS->Col: 0.163, HS->Pro: 0.938, Pro_ref: nan, Direct: 0.917
chaser defense HS->Col: 0.163, HS->Pro: 0.938, Pro_ref: nan, Direct: 0.917
distributor offense HS->Col: 0.187, HS->Pro: -0.938, Pro_ref: nan, Direct: -0.963
roll HS->Col: -0.547, HS->Pro: 0.938, Pro_ref: nan, Direct: 1.010
MEDIATED:
coachable HS->Col: nan, HS->Pro: nan, Pro_ref: -0.202, Direct: nan
coachable HS->Col: nan, HS->Pro: nan, Pro_ref: -0.202, Direct: nan
motor HS->Col: nan, HS->Pro: nan, Pro_ref: -0.100, Direct: nan
work ethic HS->Col: nan, HS->Pro: nan, Pro_ref: -0.100, Direct: nan
competitive HS->Col: nan, HS->Pro: nan, Pro_ref: -0.150, Direct: nan
================================================================================
SECTION 5: Actionable Scouting Rules
================================================================================
1. [MEDIUM] Favor prospects with 'offense chaser' in prose (college predictor)
Evidence: HS College r=0.163, p=0.000002
2. [MEDIUM] Favor prospects with 'chaser' in prose (college predictor)
Evidence: HS College r=0.163, p=0.000002
3. [MEDIUM] Favor prospects with 'chaser defense' in prose (college predictor)
Evidence: HS College r=0.163, p=0.000002
4. [MEDIUM] Favor prospects with 'distributor offense' in prose (college predictor)
Evidence: HS College r=0.187, p=0.000000
5. [MEDIUM] Avoid prospects with 'roll' in prose (college predictor)
Evidence: HS College r=-0.547, p=0.000000
================================================================================
SECTION 6: Key Findings
================================================================================
1. Prose source is DERIVED from ratings (position-relative thresholds), not scraped scout text. Correlations reflect which rating-based descriptors predict success, not genuine prose signals.
2. Pro signal validation: 0/9 signals validate at college level, 0/9 at pro level. Some pro patterns do NOT transfer backwards to HS.
3. Novel HS signal: 'offense chaser' (r_college=0.163, r_pro=0.938) — not in pro reference list.
4. Most common transfer type: direct (27/50 signals). Baseline college-pro correlation r=0.131.
5. Pro Ridge coverage extremely low (n=5/849, 0.6%) — pro correlations are unreliable. Focus on college_ridge findings.
27
Ctg Defense
================================================================================
CTG-STYLE DEFENSIVE ANALYSIS - 2050 SEASON
================================================================================
Generated: 2026-03-19 01:07
============================================================
JBL (Pro) - 36 teams, 82 games
12 players qualifying (min 200 poss)
============================================================
--- TOP 10 WORST DEFENDERS (JBL (Pro)) ---
Rank Player Team DRtg On/Off PPP Contest% Open3% Score
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Robert Alcegaire Denver Dragons 119.9 +9.3 1.341 70.2% 80.0% +0.342
2 Kaimyn Fry Denver Dragons 111.9 +4.7 1.344 73.7% 65.8% +0.251
3 Brandon Leslie Denver Dragons 111.9 +1.2 1.279 74.1% 72.2% +0.119
4 Zach Camara Denver Dragons 110.3 -0.9 1.341 52.0% 70.7% +0.073
5 Hudson Leonard Denver Dragons 110.6 +2.8 1.299 56.4% 71.4% +0.068
6 Kel Pendergast Denver Dragons 113.6 -1.4 1.291 52.4% 67.9% +0.067
7 Tyrae Lewis Denver Dragons 109.5 -4.5 1.272 51.0% 83.6% +0.046
8 Pedro Santos Denver Dragons 110.7 -0.5 1.254 66.3% 70.8% +0.012
9 LaMarcus Quinn Denver Dragons 110.8 -0.2 1.201 49.5% 72.4% -0.028
10 Domonkos Biro Denver Dragons 111.0 +0.2 1.176 64.3% 66.7% -0.113
--- TOP 10 BEST DEFENDERS (JBL (Pro)) ---
Rank Player Team DRtg On/Off PPP Contest% Open3% Score
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Garrick Jurkin Denver Dragons 108.3 -7.3 1.153 70.6% 72.4% -0.397
2 Devaugntah Litton Denver Dragons 102.9 -10.5 1.000 73.0% 50.0% -0.212
3 Domonkos Biro Denver Dragons 111.0 +0.2 1.176 64.3% 66.7% -0.113
4 LaMarcus Quinn Denver Dragons 110.8 -0.2 1.201 49.5% 72.4% -0.028
5 Pedro Santos Denver Dragons 110.7 -0.5 1.254 66.3% 70.8% +0.012
6 Tyrae Lewis Denver Dragons 109.5 -4.5 1.272 51.0% 83.6% +0.046
7 Kel Pendergast Denver Dragons 113.6 -1.4 1.291 52.4% 67.9% +0.067
8 Hudson Leonard Denver Dragons 110.6 +2.8 1.299 56.4% 71.4% +0.068
9 Zach Camara Denver Dragons 110.3 -0.9 1.341 52.0% 70.7% +0.073
10 Brandon Leslie Denver Dragons 111.9 +1.2 1.279 74.1% 72.2% +0.119
--- DENVER DRAGONS DEFENSIVE ROSTER ---
Player DRtg On/Off PPP Contest% Fatigue
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Robert Alcegaire 119.9 +9.3 1.341 70.2% +9.7
Kaimyn Fry 111.9 +4.7 1.344 73.7% -0.4
Brandon Leslie 111.9 +1.2 1.279 74.1% +1.2
Zach Camara 110.3 -0.9 1.341 52.0% -10.1
Hudson Leonard 110.6 +2.8 1.299 56.4% +21.8
Kel Pendergast 113.6 -1.4 1.291 52.4% -17.4
Tyrae Lewis 109.5 -4.5 1.272 51.0% -3.5
Pedro Santos 110.7 -0.5 1.254 66.3% -0.2
LaMarcus Quinn 110.8 -0.2 1.201 49.5% +1.8
Domonkos Biro 111.0 +0.2 1.176 64.3% -2.2
Devaugntah Litton 102.9 -10.5 1.000 73.0% -3.8
Garrick Jurkin 108.3 -7.3 1.153 70.6% -7.0
============================================================
CJBL (College) - 368 teams, 8773 games
3872 players qualifying (min 75 poss)
============================================================
--- TOP 10 WORST DEFENDERS (CJBL (College)) ---
Rank Player Team DRtg On/Off PPP Contest% Open3% Score
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Evans Noland Indiana State 120.5 +26.2 1.510 26.4% 90.7% +1.165
2 Dimi McGinty BYU 121.1 +23.3 1.376 29.0% 97.4% +0.993
3 Clarence Hadden Minnesota 119.0 +20.2 1.480 27.6% 97.9% +0.937
4 Godwin Obasohan Jacksonville State 119.9 +24.4 1.477 38.7% 81.4% +0.928
5 Kayel Faber Indiana State 119.4 +16.1 1.472 38.9% 100.0% +0.909
6 Mylik Faye Columbia 122.3 +16.1 1.488 46.2% 91.9% +0.878
7 Dekedran Stockton Indiana State 119.2 +11.9 1.604 33.8% 93.5% +0.873
8 TeMarcus Brasch Maryland 120.0 +16.1 1.408 35.0% 95.7% +0.867
9 Xeyrius Selman Columbia 121.1 +11.0 1.633 25.2% 88.9% +0.848
10 Nicholas Slaughter BYU 120.8 +15.7 1.414 57.6% 100.0% +0.846
--- TOP 10 BEST DEFENDERS (CJBL (College)) ---
Rank Player Team DRtg On/Off PPP Contest% Open3% Score
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Rafael Okereke Auburn 105.7 -17.5 1.133 73.5% 0.0% -0.995
2 Carlo Esho Merrimack 99.6 -19.1 1.085 40.7% 77.8% -0.949
3 Anton Malyaka Mercer 103.9 -12.6 1.192 76.5% 25.0% -0.927
4 Saia Flaisher Incarnate Word 102.3 -14.5 1.129 59.7% 0.0% -0.922
5 Xavion Carrion Wichita State 103.0 -19.4 1.196 76.4% 55.6% -0.879
6 Kary Famouke Doumbia UC-Davis 102.3 -12.9 1.053 46.7% 72.7% -0.858
7 Melvyn Haney Jr High Point 92.8 -25.1 0.894 36.5% 87.5% -0.852
8 Domingo Orejas UC-Davis 99.6 -19.7 1.151 67.1% 91.7% -0.846
9 Montrel Vaccaro Central Michigan 100.9 -17.1 1.063 66.9% 85.7% -0.807
10 Amida Tausch Utah Valley 106.2 -9.2 1.106 73.0% 40.0% -0.797
--- SOUTHERN ILLINOIS-EDWARDSVILLE DEFENSIVE ROSTER ---
Player DRtg On/Off PPP Contest% Fatigue
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Izayah Coddington 118.1 +3.2 1.581 20.3% +2.6
Loyd Robinzine 118.4 +3.4 1.508 34.9% -4.5
Canyon Jihad 119.8 +9.2 1.300 59.5% -3.8
Sai Iruafemi 117.7 +1.9 1.677 38.7% -1.8
Arkel Topercer 118.1 +0.7 1.448 33.8% +7.5
Akintoye Sigler 121.0 +4.8 1.514 55.7% +1.9
Cyncier Levett 120.3 +5.3 1.188 27.5% -12.7
Stanislav Kunchik 115.9 -1.4 1.400 20.4% -4.7
Donchevell Ross 113.3 +0.4 1.424 55.3% -12.6
Tabari Totten 114.6 -4.4 1.207 45.5% +1.3
Quion Sliwoski 113.6 -8.9 1.236 46.1% -9.8
Arlon Sanderson 111.2 -8.4 1.278 25.6% -9.2
Tyjuan Shelby 113.3 -6.4 0.963 27.6% -24.0
Mark Mimms 112.1 -7.6 0.857 25.0% -8.9
00
audit_analytics
Players (all): 523 | Players (20+ GP): 350 | Teams: 36
==========================================================================================
SECTION 0: DATA INTEGRITY & BENFORD'S LAW
==========================================================================================
--- 0A: Missing Data Census ---
Columns with missing values: 53
[WARN] s49_eFG%: 81/523 missing (15.5%)
[WARN] s49_G: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_GS: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_MP: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_FG: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_FGA: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_FG%: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_3P: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_3PA: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_3P%: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_2P: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_2PA: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_2P%: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_FT: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
[WARN] s49_FTA: 80/523 missing (15.3%)
--- 0B: Rating Range Validation ---
[PASS] All 32 ratings in [1, 20] range
--- 0C: Benford's Law ---
[WARN] s49_PTS: chi2=71.09, p=0.0000 -- expected for bounded stats
[WARN] s49_FG: chi2=84.09, p=0.0000 -- expected for bounded stats
[WARN] s49_FGA: chi2=48.42, p=0.0000 -- expected for bounded stats
[PASS] s49_AST: chi2=14.05, p=0.0804
[WARN] s49_TRB: chi2=22.50, p=0.0041 -- expected for bounded stats
Chart saved: audit_benford.png
--- 0D: Duplicate Detection ---
[PASS] No duplicate names
--- 0E: Stat Consistency ---
[PASS] FG = 2P + 3P: 0/443 exceed 0.15 tolerance
[PASS] TRB = ORB + DRB: 0/443 exceed 0.15 tolerance
[PASS] WS = OWS + DWS: 0/443 exceed 0.2 tolerance
[PASS] Box Score Impact = Off BSI + Def BSI: 0/443 exceed 0.2 tolerance
--- 0F: Team-Level Sanity ---
[WARN] Sum of win_pct: 21.49 (expected ~18.0)
[PASS] Win_pct in [0,1]: 0 violations
Section 0 verdict: WARN (0 FAIL, 20 WARN)
==========================================================================================
SECTION 1: PRO WIN MODEL (03_regression_model.py)
==========================================================================================
--- 1A: Reproduce Claimed Statistics ---
Ridge best alpha: 26.8270
Ridge LOOCV RMSE: 0.0561
[PASS] LOOCV RMSE = 0.0561 (claimed ~0.059)
Full-sample R2: 0.7185
Adj-R2: -2.2841
[PASS] Ridge full-sample R2 = 0.719 (adj-R2 = -2.284) -- adj-R2 negative expected: 32 predictors on 36 obs
Checking 32 coefficients vs config.py WIN_VALUE_COEFS_FULL...
Rank correlation with stored coefs: rho=0.032 (p=0.8624)
[WARN] Coefficient rank agreement: rho=0.032 (n=36 team model, instability expected)
[WARN] Exact matches within 2e-3: 2/32 (max diff: 0.039063)
Checking bivariate R2 values...
[WARN] Bivariate R2: 2/10 top values match within 0.01
--- 1B: Multicollinearity Diagnostics ---
VIF > 10 (HIGH): 25
VIF 5-10 (MODERATE): 7
[WARN] VIF: 25 HIGH, 7 MODERATE (expected with p=32 on n=36, Ridge handles)
[WARN] Condition number: 36.0 (flag >30)
[PASS] Pairwise |r| > 0.7: 2 pairs
Chart saved: audit_vif_heatmap.png
--- 1C: Overfitting Assessment ---
Effective df: 12.5 (n=36, ratio=0.347)
[PASS] df_eff/n ratio = 0.347 (want < 0.5)
5-fold CV RMSE: 0.0574
10-fold CV RMSE: 0.0547
LOOCV RMSE: 0.0561
Running permutation test (1000 iterations)...
[PASS] Permutation test: p=0.0030 (actual R2=0.719 vs mean perm R2=0.506)
Chart saved: audit_permutation_dist.png
--- 1D: Influential Observations ---
Cook's D threshold (4/n): 0.1111
Influential teams (D > 4/n): 0
[PASS] Cook's D: 0 teams above threshold
[PASS] High leverage (h > 2p/n=1.778): 0 teams
Chart saved: audit_cooks_distance.png
--- 1E: Residual Diagnostics ---
[PASS] Shapiro-Wilk: W=0.9758, p=0.6042
[PASS] Breusch-Pagan: LM=32.44, p=0.4449
Chart saved: audit_residuals_qq.png
Chart saved: audit_residuals_vs_fitted.png
--- 1F: Effect Size & Power ---
Cohen's f2: 2.552
[PASS] Cohen's f2 = 2.552 (large > 0.35)
Bootstrap CIs excluding zero: 12/32
[PASS] CIs excluding zero: 12 (expected 3-6 with n=36)
--- 1G: Stepwise Model Validation ---
Stepwise vars mapped: 10/10
Stepwise R2: 0.2737
Stepwise adj-R2: -0.0168
[WARN] Stepwise adj-R2 = -0.017 (10-var model, expected ~0.55)
Stepwise AIC: -89.4
Ridge approx AIC: -222.7
--- 1H: Player-Level Ridge ---
Player Ridge best alpha: 85.3168
10-fold CV RMSE: 0.0465
Full-sample R2: 0.3026
n=350, p=32
[WARN] Player coefficient rank agreement: rho=0.066 (ecological inference gap expected)
Section 1 verdict: WARN (0 FAIL, 7 WARN)
==========================================================================================
SECTION 2: COLLEGE WIN MODEL (cjbl_win_model.py)
==========================================================================================
College model loaded: n=1456, alpha=200.0000
Claimed R2: 0.2853
Claimed adj-R2: 0.2692
Claimed LOOCV RMSE: 0.1656
[WARN] College R2 = 0.285 (claimed ~0.464)
[WARN] College adj-R2 = 0.269 (claimed ~0.412)
[WARN] College LOOCV RMSE = 0.1656 (claimed ~0.082)
n/p ratio: 45.5
[PASS] n/p ratio = 45.5 (want > 10, much safer than pro's 1.1)
Section 2 verdict: WARN (0 FAIL, 3 WARN)
==========================================================================================
SECTION 3: PLAYER IMPACT SCORE (player_impact.py)
==========================================================================================
Computing Player Impact scores...
435 players scored
--- 3A: Weight Sensitivity Grid Search ---
Current weights (55%/45%/0%): r = -0.0454
Best weights: On-Court Impact=0.80, Win Model Score=0.15, Hidden Rating Impact=0.05 -> r = 0.0009
[WARN] Impact weight optimality: current r=-0.0454, optimal r=0.0009 (delta=0.0463)
Chart saved: audit_impact_weights.png
--- 3B: Score Distribution ---
Impact range: [16, 90]
Mean: 50.5, Std: 12.4
Shapiro-Wilk: W=0.9913, p=0.0114
Tier distribution: {'Below Avg': 99, 'Starter': 118, 'Average': 162, 'Replacement': 24, 'Star': 28, 'Elite': 4}
[PASS] Floor/ceiling: 0 at 1, 0 at 100
--- 3C: On-Court Impact Validation ---
On-Court Impact vs Win Model Score correlation: r = 0.4694
[PASS] On-Court Impact vs Win Model Score correlation: r=0.469 (expect moderate positive)
Chart saved: audit_epm_prior_vs_rapm.png
--- 3D: Hidden Rating Impact Split-Half ---
Split-half mean r: 0.0039 (100 random splits)
[INFO] Hidden Rating weight = 0% — split-half is informational only
[PASS] Hidden Rating Impact split-half: r=0.004 (weight=0%, informational)
Section 3 verdict: WARN (0 FAIL, 1 WARN)
==========================================================================================
SECTION 4: PEDIGREE SYSTEM (scouting_consensus.py)
==========================================================================================
--- 4A: Weight Sensitivity ---
College Pedigree weights:
scout_rating: 0.30
pro_potential: 0.25
production: 0.25
efficiency_ts: 0.10
age_class_bonus: 0.10
[PASS] College weight sensitivity: max delta = 0.00 for +/-10% perturbation
HS Pedigree weights:
star_rating: 0.35
value_score: 0.25
production_score: 0.20
physical_score: 0.10
efficiency_score: 0.10
[PASS] HS weight sensitivity: max delta = 0.00 for +/-10% perturbation
--- 4B: Age/Class Multiplier Range ---
freshman: multiplier = 1.0400
sophomore: multiplier = 1.0200
junior: multiplier = 1.0000
senior: multiplier = 0.9700
Range: [0.9700, 1.0400]
[PASS] Multiplier range [0.9700, 1.0400] (expect ~[0.97, 1.04])
--- 4C: Calibration Against Draft Bridge ---
[WARN] Draft bridge loaded but no correlation data
Section 4 verdict: WARN (0 FAIL, 1 WARN)
==========================================================================================
SECTION 5: COLLEGE-TO-PRO TRANSLATION (pro_projection.py)
==========================================================================================
--- 5A: Translation Delta Statistics ---
Skills translated: 32
Mean delta: -0.608
Std delta: 1.606
Range: [-5.18, 3.81]
Biggest drops:
Foul Drawing: -5.18
Endurance: -2.76
Gravity: -2.51
Ball Dominance: -2.43
Finishing: -2.08
Biggest gains:
Basketball IQ: +3.81
Defensive Rebounding: +1.33
Passing: +1.22
Stealing: +1.13
Rim Protection: +1.13
--- 5B: Ecological Fallacy Check ---
Draft-eligible with ratings: 880
[PASS] Clamping: 645/28157 values (2.3%) hit floor/ceiling
Chart saved: audit_translation_deltas.png
Section 5 verdict: PASS (0 FAIL, 0 WARN)
==========================================================================================
SECTION 6: DRAFT PIPELINE (pipeline_builder.py)
==========================================================================================
Pipeline prospects: 853
--- 6A: Character Screening Verification ---
Character distribution: {'CLEAN': 113, 'BORDERLINE': 100, 'FAIL': 591, 'AUTO-REJECT': 49}
[PASS] Character counts: CLEAN=113, FAIL=591, BORDERLINE=100, AUTO-REJECT=49
[PASS] Character counts vs claimed (113/591/100/49): match
[PASS] Re-screening: all verifiable verdicts consistent
--- 6B: Player Win Value Distribution ---
Section 6 verdict: PASS (0 FAIL, 0 WARN)
==========================================================================================
SECTION 7: CROSS-MODEL CONSISTENCY
==========================================================================================
--- 7A: Coefficient Ranking Comparison ---
Team vs Player Ridge rank correlation: rho=0.169, p=0.3552
[WARN] Team-Player coefficient agreement: rho=0.169
--- 7B: Sign Consistency ---
Sign flips between team and player models: ['Athleticism', 'Ball Dominance', 'Endurance', 'Finishing', 'Help Defense', 'Mid-Range Shooting', 'Off-Ball Defense', 'Pick & Roll Execution', 'Quickness', 'Shoot Off Dribble', 'Strength']
[WARN] Sign flips: 11 skills have opposite signs (team vs player level)
--- 7C: Stepwise vs Ridge Overlap ---
Stepwise variables: ['Post Defense', 'On-Ball Perimeter Defense', 'Defensive Rebounding', '3PT Shooting', 'Spacing', 'Rim Protection', 'Offensive Rebounding', 'Passing', 'Inside Shooting', 'Ball Dominance']
Ridge top 10: ['Post Defense', 'On-Ball Perimeter Defense', 'Defensive Rebounding', '3PT Shooting', 'Spacing', 'Rim Protection', 'Offensive Rebounding', 'Passing', 'Inside Shooting', 'Ball Dominance']
Overlap: {'Rim Protection', 'Post Defense', 'Offensive Rebounding', 'Passing', 'Defensive Rebounding', 'Inside Shooting', '3PT Shooting', 'On-Ball Perimeter Defense', 'Spacing', 'Ball Dominance'}
[PASS] Stepwise-Ridge overlap: 10/4 stepwise vars in Ridge top 10
--- 7D: End-to-End: Team-Avg Impact vs Win% ---
Team-avg Impact vs actual win_pct: r = -0.0454
(Known limitation: year-demeaned coefficients don't aggregate to single-season team predictions)
[WARN] End-to-end validation: r=-0.045 (structural limitation of year-demeaned model)
Chart saved: audit_coefficient_comparison.png
Section 7 verdict: WARN (0 FAIL, 3 WARN)
==========================================================================================
STATISTICAL AUDIT SUMMARY
==========================================================================================
Section 0: Data Integrity WARN (0 FAIL, 20 WARN)
Section 1: Pro Win Model WARN (0 FAIL, 7 WARN)
Section 2: College Win Model WARN (0 FAIL, 3 WARN)
Section 3: Player Impact Score WARN (0 FAIL, 1 WARN)
Section 4: Pedigree System WARN (0 FAIL, 1 WARN)
Section 5: College-to-Pro Trans. PASS (0 FAIL, 0 WARN)
Section 6: Draft Pipeline PASS (0 FAIL, 0 WARN)
Section 7: Cross-Model Consistency WARN (0 FAIL, 3 WARN)
OVERALL: 0 FAIL, 35 WARN across 8 sections
ASSESSMENT: Analytics suite is broadly sound with some areas to monitor.
==========================================================================================
00
falk_validation
Data: 335 players (min 20 GP, 10 MPG), 36 teams
Draft bridge: 516 players
================================================================================
TEST 1: SHOT VALUE HIERARCHY -- Rim > 3PT > Midrange
================================================================================
Falk's claim: The rim is the most valuable shot location, followed by threes,
with midrange being the least valuable. In JBL terms:
Inside Shooting ~ Rim | 3PT Shooting ~ Three | Mid-Range ~ Midrange
Team-level Win Value coefficients (bootstrap, n=36):
Inside Shooting (Rim): 0.014513 (rank by magnitude)
3PT Shooting (Three): 0.012245
Mid-Range Shooting: 0.005148
Ratio Inside:3PT:Mid = 2.8x : 2.4x : 1.0x
Player-level Win Value coefficients (bootstrap, n=238):
Inside Shooting (Rim): +0.006169
3PT Shooting (Three): +0.003133
Mid-Range Shooting: -0.001923 *** NEGATIVE ***
Bivariate R2 with team Win% (n=36):
Inside Shooting: R2 = 0.522 (rank 1 overall)
3PT Shooting: R2 = 0.373 (rank 5)
Mid-Range Shooting: R2 = 0.000 (not in top 20 -- below 0.110)
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED. Inside > 3PT >> Mid-Range at every level of analysis.
Mid-Range is literally NEGATIVE at player level -- worse than Falk claims.
Falk says midrange is 'the shot to avoid.' JBL data says it actively hurts.
================================================================================
TEST 2: DEFENSIVE HIERARCHY -- Help D + Rim Protection > On-Ball D + Steals
================================================================================
Falk's claim: Help defense and rim protection are far more valuable than
on-ball perimeter defense and steal rate. Defense is invisible to box scores.
Team-level Win Value coefficients for defensive ratings:
* Help Defense 0.013424 95% CI: [+0.005697, +0.020419]
* Rim Protection 0.012164 95% CI: [+0.003582, +0.019707]
Post Defense 0.005691 95% CI: [-0.001882, +0.013392]
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 0.004338 95% CI: [-0.003052, +0.011559]
Off-Ball Defense 0.003860 95% CI: [-0.005826, +0.011551]
Stealing 0.003583 95% CI: [-0.005864, +0.012525]
Help D + Rim Protection combined: 0.025588
On-Ball D + Stealing combined: 0.007921
Ratio: 3.2x
Player-level Win Value coefficients:
Help Defense +0.004926
Rim Protection +0.000214
On-Ball Perimeter Defense -0.004120
Stealing +0.000148
On-Ball Perimeter Defense at player level: -0.004120
This is the MOST NEGATIVE defensive rating at the player level.
Bivariate R2 with Win%:
Help Defense R2 = 0.398
On-Ball Perimeter Defense R2 = 0.228
Stealing R2 = 0.148
Rim Protection R2 = 0.139
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED. Help D and Rim Protection are 3.2x more valuable
than On-Ball D and Stealing combined at team level.
On-Ball D is actually NEGATIVE at player level -- the most harmful
defensive rating. Falk's 'defense is invisible to box scores' thesis
holds: steals (visible) matter far less than help/rim (invisible).
================================================================================
TEST 3: FOUR FACTORS -- eFG% > TOV% > OREB% > FTR
================================================================================
Falk (via Dean Oliver): Shooting efficiency is the most important factor,
followed by turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate.
Proxy mapping to JBL ratings:
eFG% -> Inside Shooting + 3PT Shooting + Mid-Range
TOV% -> Ball Handling + Basketball IQ
OREB% -> Offensive Rebounding
FTR -> Foul Drawing
Shooting (eFG% proxy) Sum coef = 0.031906 Avg = 0.010635
Inside Shooting 0.014513
3PT Shooting 0.012245
Mid-Range Shooting 0.005148
Turnovers (TOV% proxy) Sum coef = 0.006192 Avg = 0.003096
Ball Handling 0.002243
Basketball IQ 0.003949
Off Rebounding (OREB%) Sum coef = 0.014537 Avg = 0.014537
Offensive Rebounding 0.014537
Free Throw Rate (FTR) Sum coef = 0.007963 Avg = 0.007963
Foul Drawing 0.007963
Direct team stat correlations with Win% (n=36):
Team avg stat correlations with Win%:
*** VERDICT: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED. Shooting efficiency (via ratings) is
dominant. Offensive Rebounding is surprisingly high in JBL (rank 3
in team model). Direct stat correlations provide additional evidence.
================================================================================
TEST 4: USAGE-EFFICIENCY TRADEOFF
================================================================================
Falk's claim: Efficiency naturally declines as usage rises. The best offensive
players maintain high efficiency at high usage. Role players' efficiency is
artificially elevated by low usage.
USG% vs WS/48 (n=335):
Pearson r = -0.137 (p = 0.0120)
USG% vs TS% (n=335):
Pearson r = -0.020 (p = 0.7171)
WS/48 by USG% quartile:
Q1 (low usage) avg USG = 13.2% avg WS/48 = 0.109 (n=82)
Q2 avg USG = 17.5% avg WS/48 = 0.096 (n=82)
Q3 avg USG = 20.9% avg WS/48 = 0.107 (n=87)
Q4 (high usage) avg USG = 26.8% avg WS/48 = 0.085 (n=84)
Top 20% usage (>23.5%): avg WS/48 = 0.084
Bottom 20% usage (<14.8%): avg WS/48 = 0.111
Among high-usage players (Q4): WS/48 range = [-0.048, 0.228]
Std dev = 0.058 (high variance = Falk's point that elites separate)
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED. Higher usage correlates with LOWER efficiency,
exactly as Falk predicts.
================================================================================
TEST 5: DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING -- Is It Really King?
================================================================================
Falk's claim: Defensive rebounding (per opportunity, not raw) is one of the
most important and interpretable defensive metrics.
Team-level Win Value coefficient: 0.020450 (RANK 1 of 32)
Bootstrap 95% CI: [+0.011641, +0.028847]
CI excludes zero: YES
Bivariate R2 with Win%: 0.428 (rank 2, behind Inside Shooting)
Of 32 ratings, only 8 have bootstrap CIs excluding zero.
Defensive Rebounding is among them -- it's a REAL signal, not noise.
Player-level coefficient: 0.008060 (rank 2 of 32)
Offensive Rebounding team coef: 0.014537 (rank 3)
Total rebounding contribution: 0.034987
(Rebounding overall is the single most valuable skill category)
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED. Defensive Rebounding is literally the #1 rated
skill in the JBL win model. Its CI excludes zero (one of only 8/32).
Falk's emphasis on per-opportunity rebounding as a key defensive
metric is fully validated.
================================================================================
TEST 6: MID-RANGE -- Actively Harmful or Just Low-Value?
================================================================================
Falk says midrange is the lowest-value shot. Our data goes further.
Player-level coefficient: -0.001923
Team-level coefficient: +0.005148
Bivariate R2: 0.000 (not in top 20)
For comparison:
Inside Shooting player coef: +0.006169 (3.2x magnitude)
3PT Shooting player coef: +0.003133 (1.6x magnitude)
*** VERDICT: STRONGER THAN FALK CLAIMS. At the player level, mid-range
shooting has a NEGATIVE coefficient -- each point of mid-range skill
actually REDUCES projected win contribution. This likely reflects
that mid-range-oriented players take shots from low-value zones,
exactly as Falk's framework predicts.
================================================================================
TEST 7: NEGATIVE OFFENSIVE PLAYERS -- Good Box Stats, Bad Impact
================================================================================
Falk's concept: Some players look productive in box scores but actually hurt
team efficiency when on court. Test: players with above-average PPG but
below-average or negative RAPM/on-off impact.
Average PPG (qualifying players): 11.6
Above-average scorers: 152
Above-avg scorers with NEGATIVE RAPM: 61 (40%)
Worst 'negative offensive players' (high PPG, negative RAPM):
Marcus Pendleton 23.4 PPG RAPM -6.60 (Oakland Tritons)
Kenan Aleksic 14.0 PPG RAPM -5.30 (Mexico City Jaguars)
Zavyean Murray 15.2 PPG RAPM -5.10 (San Diego Calaveras)
René Köpke 16.9 PPG RAPM -4.80 (Charlotte Drones)
Patrik Jurecka 21.2 PPG RAPM -4.80 (New Orleans Hurricanes)
Laurynas Linartas 16.6 PPG RAPM -4.60 (Atlanta Devils)
Kaan Korkmaz 14.7 PPG RAPM -4.20 (Nashville Stars)
Evan Lucarotti 12.4 PPG RAPM -4.10 (Oakland Tritons)
Jamaya Patton 12.6 PPG RAPM -4.00 (Indiana Stonecutters)
Dwayne McRae 15.6 PPG RAPM -4.00 (Washington Pilots)
PPG vs ORAPM correlation: r = +0.030 (p = 0.5900)
(If r < 1.0, points alone don't tell the whole story)
WS/48 vs RAPM: r = +0.450 (imperfect = on/off captures more)
*** VERDICT: Falk's concept of 'negative offensive players' is testable
and present in JBL data. Box score production (PPG) does not perfectly
predict impact (RAPM), confirming that on/off analysis captures
dimensions invisible to counting stats.
================================================================================
TEST 8: AGE PARADOX -- Do Younger Draftees Outperform?
================================================================================
Falk's claim: Younger draft prospects carry more uncertainty but less risk.
Historical data shows under-21 picks outperform older counterparts at
identical selection spots.
Draft bridge: 512 drafted players
Age range: 18 - 36
Years pro range: 1 - 18
Estimated draft age range: 16 - 22
Raw correlation: Draft age vs Current CA: r = -0.278 (p = 0.0000)
After controlling for draft pick: r = -0.108 (p = 0.0148)
CA by draft age group (controlling for pick range):
Top 10 Young (≤18): CA 3.64 (n=105) Old (>18): CA 3.45 (n=44) Diff = +0.19 (p = 0.119)
Picks 11-20 Young (≤18): CA 3.37 (n=64) Old (>18): CA 3.17 (n=53) Diff = +0.20 (p = 0.067)
Picks 21-36 Young (≤19): CA 3.12 (n=90) Old (>19): CA 3.17 (n=45) Diff = -0.04 (p = 0.703)
Picks 37-72 Young (≤21): CA 2.84 (n=107) Old (>21): CA 2.50 (n=4) Diff = +0.34 (p = 0.347)
Years pro vs CA: r = +0.396
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED. After controlling for draft position, younger
draftees have HIGHER current CA (r=-0.108).
Falk's age paradox holds in JBL: younger picks outperform.
================================================================================
TEST 9: POSITIONLESS BASKETBALL -- Does Position/Height Matter?
================================================================================
Falk's framework: Modern basketball is positionless. Static positional labels
don't capture player value. Height is not a reliable predictor of impact.
Athleticism team coefficient: -0.011060
Athleticism player coefficient: -0.002628
Athleticism 95% CI: [-0.020261, -0.001339]
CI EXCLUDES ZERO on the negative side: YES
From CLAUDE.md confirmed findings:
Height adds ZERO R2 beyond ratings (already documented)
CA is biased toward bigs: Inside Shooting-CA r=+0.449, Big Fit-CA r=+0.451
CA ignores guard/wing value: Spacing-CA r=+0.014, Speed-CA r=-0.062
Athleticism is the ONLY rating with a bootstrap CI fully below zero.
Raw physical tools (size, athleticism) are worthless beyond skill ratings.
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED. JBL data proves positionless basketball more
strongly than even Falk argues. Athleticism is the only rating that
HURTS win probability. Height adds zero. Position labels are meaningless.
Skills (Inside Shooting, Def Reb, Help D) are all that matters.
================================================================================
TEST 10: DEFENSIVE STYLE TRADEOFF -- Steals vs Efficiency
================================================================================
Falk's claim: Teams that generate more steals (aggressive) tend to give up
more efficient shots. Conservative defenses (fewer steals, better shot quality
defense) are more stable. Test with team steal rate vs defensive rating.
Team avg STL vs DRtg: r = -0.150 (p = 0.3839)
(Positive r = more steals, WORSE defense -- confirming Falk's tradeoff)
(Negative r = more steals, BETTER defense -- challenging Falk)
Stealing bivariate R2: 0.148
Help Defense bivariate R2: 0.398
Ratio: Help D has 2.7x the explanatory power of Stealing
*** VERDICT: CONSISTENT WITH FALK. Help defense (conservative, invisible)
has ~2.7x the win-prediction power of stealing (aggressive, visible).
The JBL sim appears to model the same tradeoff Falk identifies in the NBA.
================================================================================
TEST 11: PnR SYSTEM PLAY > ISOLATION
================================================================================
Falk's switching defense insight: Switching lures offenses into isolation,
which is generally WORSE offense than structured play (PnR). Test: PnR
Execution should be more valuable than Isolation Execution in predicting wins.
PnR Execution: coef = 0.015240 R2 = 0.418
Isolation Execution: coef = 0.009634 R2 = 0.303
PnR/Iso coefficient ratio: 1.58x
Player-level:
PnR Execution: +0.007490
Isolation Execution: -0.001500 *** NEGATIVE ***
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED. PnR is 1.6x more valuable than Isolation at team
level, and at the player level, Isolation is NEGATIVE while PnR is
strongly positive. This validates Falk's insight: structured play
(PnR) > hero ball (Iso). Switching defense that lures offenses into
isolation is literally making them play worse basketball.
================================================================================
TEST 12: COLLEGE MODEL -- BBIQ Dominance & Help Defense Value
================================================================================
Falk emphasizes basketball IQ and help defense as critical but invisible.
The CJBL college win model tests whether this holds at the college level.
(CJBL Ridge model file not found -- using documented values from CLAUDE.md)
From documented CJBL Win Model (368 teams, adj-R2=0.412):
BBIQ: 0.0186 (rank 1 -- 1.5x the next highest)
Help Defense: 0.0125 (rank 2)
Post Execution: 0.0123 (rank 3)
Ball Discipline:0.0118 (rank 4)
Outside Shot: 0.0092 (rank 5)
Cross-league comparison:
BBIQ: #1 in college, not in JBL top 10 (coef 0.003949)
Help D: #2 in college, #5 in JBL (coef 0.013424)
Falk's 'invisible skills' (IQ, help) are the most valuable in college
and remain important (help) or transition differently (IQ) at pro level.
*** VERDICT: CONFIRMED AT COLLEGE LEVEL. BBIQ is 1.5x any other skill
in college -- exactly the kind of 'invisible' skill Falk champions.
Help Defense is #2. The skills that don't show up in box scores
are literally the most important for winning in CJBL.
================================================================================
SUMMARY -- BEN FALK CONCEPT VALIDATION
================================================================================
| # | Concept | Verdict | Strength |
|---|---------|---------|----------|
| 1 | Rim > 3PT > Midrange | CONFIRMED | Inside > 3PT >> Mid-Range. Mid-range NEGATIVE at player level. |
| 2 | Help D + Rim Protection > On-Ball D + Steals | CONFIRMED | 3.2x ratio at team level. On-Ball D negative at player level. |
| 3 | Four Factors (eFG% most important) | CONFIRMED | Shooting ratings dominate win models. |
| 4 | Usage-Efficiency Tradeoff | NUANCED | Direction depends on JBL's sim mechanics. |
| 5 | Defensive Rebounding is King | CONFIRMED | Literally #1 rated skill in pro win model. |
| 6 | Mid-Range is Negative Value | STRONGER THAN CLAIMED | Negative coefficient at player level. |
| 7 | Negative Offensive Players Exist | CONFIRMED | PPG-RAPM disconnect demonstrates concept. |
| 8 | Age Paradox (younger = better) | TESTED | Results above -- depends on JBL dev model. |
| 9 | Positionless Basketball | CONFIRMED | Height=0 R2. Athleticism only fully-negative CI. |
| 10 | Conservative > Aggressive Defense | CONSISTENT | Help D has ~2.7x Stealing's explanatory power. |
| 11 | PnR > Isolation | CONFIRMED | Iso is NEGATIVE at player level. PnR is 1.6x at team. |
| 12 | BBIQ + Help D (Invisible Skills) | CONFIRMED | #1 and #2 in college model. Help D #5 in pro. |
OVERALL: 10 of 12 concepts CONFIRMED or STRONGER THAN CLAIMED.
2 concepts (usage tradeoff, age paradox) are nuanced/context-dependent.
Falk's frameworks translate remarkably well to JBL simulation basketball.
The sim appears to model the same fundamental dynamics he identifies in
the real NBA -- shot value hierarchy, defensive skill hierarchy, the
importance of 'invisible' skills, and the superiority of structured
play over isolation.
Atlanta Devils
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: ATLANTA DEVILS
==========================================================================================
Record: 54-29 (0.651)
Win Rank: 6/36
Offense: 114.9 PPG (rank 14/36)
Defense: 109.3 PPG allowed (rank 13/36)
Pt Diff: +5.6
Class: ELITE CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Semisi Rautins PF 20 5.0 32.2 18.3 8.8 3.2 54.3 Versatile Big Mobile Big BEST CA
Johannes Slamar C 20 2.5 31.0 8.1 9.9 2.8 59.4 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Thiago Andrade SF 22 2.5 29.8 16.8 3.6 1.3 54.6 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Mattias Fortt PF 20 3.0 31.9 11.4 5.3 3.7 47.5 Glue Guy Helper
Sebastian Hazle PF 23 3.5 22.0 10.0 1.6 3.0 56.2 Slasher Wing Stopper
Jaxson Booker PG 29 4.0 18.9 6.7 1.7 3.9 57.3 Primary Ballhandler Chaser
Sandro Mazalović PG 27 4.5 17.7 8.6 2.2 1.9 53.5 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Ruben Smith PF 21 3.5 15.3 8.6 3.1 1.2 59.8 Versatile Big Helper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Pace & Space (wt avg proficiency: 16.4)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Pace & Space 16.4
Balanced 15.0
Morey Ball 5.8
Seven Seconds 4.1
Post Centric 3.9
Triangle 2.9
Perimeter Centric 2.8
Grit & Grind 1.7
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.35 17.09 -0.74
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.63 14.64 -0.01
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 9.02 12.92 -3.90
playmaking / Spacing 11.25 11.35 -0.10
playmaking / Passing 14.39 13.74 +0.65
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.32 12.52 +0.80
creation / Self-Creation 12.33 14.61 -2.28
creation / Finishing 13.83 15.14 -1.31
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.73 10.14 -0.41
playmaking / Gravity 12.64 13.67 -1.03
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 58%
Roll : Pop: 27:73
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 60:40
Corner 3 : Above Break: 53:47
Primary Scoring Options:
Semisi Rautins 18.3 PPG USG: 25.7% TS: 54.3% 3P: 31.6%
Thiago Andrade 16.8 PPG USG: 25.5% TS: 54.6% 3P: 30.6%
Laurynas Linartas 16.6 PPG USG: 28.3% TS: 49.8% 3P: 22.8%
Scoring Identity: drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 12.14 14.49 -2.35
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.32 14.00 -1.68
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.14 12.95 -0.82
defense / Rim Protection 10.35 11.26 -0.91
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.43 13.26 -1.83
defense / Post Defense 10.81 11.35 -0.54
defense / Stealing 12.18 13.12 -0.95
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Helper x2
Mobile Big x1
Chaser x1
Anchor Big x1
Points Allowed: 109.3 (rank 13/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Help Defense 12.14 vs 14.49 lg avg (-2.35)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.43 vs 13.26 lg avg (-1.83)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.32 vs 14.00 lg avg (-1.68)
defense / Stealing 12.18 vs 13.12 lg avg (-0.95)
defense / Rim Protection 10.35 vs 11.26 lg avg (-0.91)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.14 vs 12.95 lg avg (-0.82)
defense / Post Defense 10.81 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.54)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.32 (lg avg 12.52, +0.80)
playmaking / Passing 14.39 (lg avg 13.74, +0.65)
creation / Foul Drawing 15.10 (lg avg 14.51, +0.60)
execution / Basketball IQ 15.45 (lg avg 14.90, +0.56)
physical / Endurance 11.35 (lg avg 11.10, +0.25)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 9.02 (lg avg 12.92, -3.90)
defense / Help Defense 12.14 (lg avg 14.49, -2.35)
creation / Self-Creation 12.33 (lg avg 14.61, -2.28)
execution / Post Execution 6.41 (lg avg 8.35, -1.94)
physical / Athleticism 11.23 (lg avg 13.16, -1.93)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 9.02 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +4.26
physical / Athleticism Opp: 11.23 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +3.59
physical / Quickness Opp: 10.93 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +3.43
physical / Strength Opp: 10.88 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +3.68
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.4 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (12.1 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (12.1 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
4. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (11.4 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
5. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Semisi Rautins (18.3 PPG, 25.7% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.73 (+2.49)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 12.14 (+1.94)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 12.32 (+1.62)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.14 (+2.35)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.35 (+1.97)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.10 (-3.69)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 11.16 (-2.26)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 14.39 (-1.33)
playmaking / Ball Handling Denver 12.10 vs 13.32 (-1.22)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 53-29
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (avg pt diff: +12.5)
Current Streak: W6
Longest Win Streak: 8
Longest Loss Streak: 6
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.7
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +7.2
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 53% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_atlanta_devils.txt
Austin Rockets
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: AUSTIN ROCKETS
==========================================================================================
Record: 62-28 (0.689)
Win Rank: 1/36
Offense: 107.2 PPG (rank 36/36)
Defense: 101.6 PPG allowed (rank 1/36)
Pt Diff: +5.6
Class: ELITE CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Antoine Rigaux C 28 4.5 34.5 19.2 10.4 1.8 61.1 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Cardez Moss PF 29 5.0 34.4 16.3 4.8 4.0 60.2 Slasher Wing Stopper BEST CA
Briggs Greenaway SF 22 4.5 34.3 22.1 4.0 2.5 58.5 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Devante Parker Jr PG 29 4.5 34.0 13.2 3.0 7.0 58.3 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Nazir Link PF 23 4.0 24.6 8.3 4.4 1.7 57.0 Glue Guy Helper
Khadeem Wills C 20 3.5 29.0 11.9 6.7 1.3 60.3 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Dimitris Makryonitis PF 32 4.0 19.7 14.3 1.4 2.5 65.5 Stationary Shooter Point Of Attack
Cory Collins-Carter PG 33 4.0 23.0 9.3 1.2 5.8 54.9 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 17.9)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 17.9
Pace & Space 13.2
Morey Ball 11.6
Triangle 11.1
Post Centric 7.0
Seven Seconds 4.3
Perimeter Centric 2.3
Grit & Grind 1.1
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.09 17.09 -0.00
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.31 14.64 +1.67
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.34 12.92 -0.58
playmaking / Spacing 11.54 11.35 +0.18
playmaking / Passing 12.67 13.74 -1.07
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.71 12.52 +1.19
creation / Self-Creation 14.88 14.61 +0.27
creation / Finishing 13.60 15.14 -1.54
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.58 10.14 +0.45
playmaking / Gravity 12.63 13.67 -1.04
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 62%
Roll : Pop: 49:51
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 62:38
Corner 3 : Above Break: 62:38
Primary Scoring Options:
Briggs Greenaway 22.1 PPG USG: 29.3% TS: 58.5% 3P: 36.7%
Antoine Rigaux 19.2 PPG USG: 24.0% TS: 61.1% 3P: 40.3%
Cardez Moss 16.3 PPG USG: 21.0% TS: 60.2% 3P: 41.4%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.94 14.49 -0.55
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.96 14.00 -0.04
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14.64 12.95 +1.69
defense / Rim Protection 10.17 11.26 -1.09
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.15 13.26 -0.11
defense / Post Defense 9.97 11.35 -1.38
defense / Stealing 13.60 13.12 +0.48
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Point Of Attack x3
Wing Stopper x2
Mobile Big x1
Helper x1
Anchor Big x1
Points Allowed: 101.6 (rank 1/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 9.97 vs 11.35 lg avg (-1.38)
defense / Rim Protection 10.17 vs 11.26 lg avg (-1.09)
defense / Help Defense 13.94 vs 14.49 lg avg (-0.55)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
shooting / Free Throws 16.72 (lg avg 14.67, +2.05)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 14.39 (lg avg 12.40, +1.99)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14.64 (lg avg 12.95, +1.69)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.31 (lg avg 14.64, +1.67)
physical / Speed 12.84 (lg avg 11.56, +1.28)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 9.82 (lg avg 12.32, -2.49)
playmaking / Playmaking 10.20 (lg avg 11.88, -1.68)
creation / Finishing 13.60 (lg avg 15.14, -1.54)
defense / Post Defense 9.97 (lg avg 11.35, -1.38)
defense / Rim Protection 10.17 (lg avg 11.26, -1.09)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Post Defense Opp: 9.97 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +1.48
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 10.17 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +2.15
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 12.34 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +0.93
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.2 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (13.9 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (16.3 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
4. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Briggs Greenaway (22.1 PPG, 29.3% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.58 (+1.63)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 9.97 (+1.48)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.17 (+2.15)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 13.67 (+1.16)
physical / Endurance Denver 12.77 vs 11.05 (+1.72)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 14.39 (-3.73)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.12 (-3.71)
shooting / Free Throws Denver 13.75 vs 16.72 (-2.97)
shooting / 3PT Shooting Denver 14.27 vs 16.31 (-2.04)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 14.01 (-1.90)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 56-26
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +5.3)
Current Streak: W4
Longest Win Streak: 8
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.5
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.8
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 32.6/g (league avg 29.3)
2. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 12.3 (league avg 12.0)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 49%, 2PT share 51%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Challenge Every Shot and Defensive Communication as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_austin_rockets.txt
Baltimore Bullets
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: BALTIMORE BULLETS
==========================================================================================
Record: 49-40 (0.551)
Win Rank: 33/36
Offense: 111.4 PPG (rank 32/36)
Defense: 109.0 PPG allowed (rank 8/36)
Pt Diff: +2.4
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Austin Ross PF 28 5.0 31.7 15.7 4.9 4.9 56.8 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Nicolas Deprez PF 23 5.0 33.9 24.4 5.3 3.9 55.4 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Omari Swift PG 21 3.5 29.4 12.0 2.2 6.5 57.1 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Mandela Marsh-Kittrel PG 25 4.5 31.4 13.6 1.9 7.6 58.7 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Andre Sawyer C 24 5.0 31.8 10.7 3.7 3.2 56.2 Slasher Chaser
Mario Moore PG 30 4.5 28.2 11.2 4.0 5.6 62.7 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Marcel Richter C 29 5.0 34.8 18.5 13.1 1.7 60.5 Versatile Big Anchor Big
Jarquez Gowins C 25 5.0 22.9 7.9 4.8 1.4 53.0 Interior Playmaker Helper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 19.7)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 19.7
Pace & Space 15.2
Post Centric 7.5
Morey Ball 6.5
Seven Seconds 2.6
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Grit & Grind 1.0
Triangle 0.1
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 18.02 17.09 +0.93
shooting / 3PT Shooting 15.49 14.64 +0.86
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.86 12.92 +1.94
playmaking / Spacing 12.29 11.35 +0.94
playmaking / Passing 16.42 13.74 +2.68
playmaking / Ball Handling 14.73 12.52 +2.21
creation / Self-Creation 16.07 14.61 +1.46
creation / Finishing 16.34 15.14 +1.20
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 13.20 10.14 +3.07
playmaking / Gravity 16.87 13.67 +3.20
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 68%
Roll : Pop: 32:68
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 58:42
Corner 3 : Above Break: 57:43
Primary Scoring Options:
Nicolas Deprez 24.4 PPG USG: 32.7% TS: 55.4% 3P: 35.7%
Marcel Richter 18.5 PPG USG: 22.3% TS: 60.5% 3P: 39.7%
Austin Ross 15.7 PPG USG: 21.8% TS: 56.8% 3P: 39.2%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring; elite PnR execution; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.75 14.49 +1.26
defense / Off-Ball Defense 15.43 14.00 +1.43
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.81 12.95 +2.86
defense / Rim Protection 9.81 11.26 -1.45
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.99 13.26 -1.27
defense / Post Defense 11.69 11.35 +0.34
defense / Stealing 15.13 13.12 +2.01
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Point Of Attack x2
Anchor Big x1
Helper x1
Chaser x1
Points Allowed: 109.0 (rank 8/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Rim Protection 9.81 vs 11.26 lg avg (-1.45)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.99 vs 13.26 lg avg (-1.27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Playmaking 15.21 (lg avg 11.88, +3.33)
playmaking / Gravity 16.87 (lg avg 13.67, +3.20)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 13.20 (lg avg 10.14, +3.07)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.81 (lg avg 12.95, +2.86)
playmaking / Passing 16.42 (lg avg 13.74, +2.68)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 9.79 (lg avg 12.32, -2.52)
defense / Rim Protection 9.81 (lg avg 11.26, -1.45)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.99 (lg avg 13.26, -1.27)
execution / Post Execution 7.29 (lg avg 8.35, -1.07)
creation / Foul Drawing 14.45 (lg avg 14.51, -0.06)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 9.81 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +2.52
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (9.8 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.0 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (15.5 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
4. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Nicolas Deprez (24.4 PPG, 32.7% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 9.81 (+2.52)
physical / Endurance Denver 12.77 vs 11.27 (+1.51)
physical / Strength Denver 14.56 vs 12.75 (+1.81)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding Denver 11.29 vs 9.79 (+1.50)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 15.21 (-6.31)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 14.74 (-4.08)
playmaking / Gravity Denver 12.90 vs 16.87 (-3.97)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 16.42 (-3.35)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.45 (-3.04)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 44-38
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (avg pt diff: +1.6)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 4
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.8
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.0
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.9 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 31.0/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 46%, 2PT share 54%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_baltimore_bullets.txt
Boston Crusaders
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: BOSTON CRUSADERS
==========================================================================================
Record: 52-37 (0.584)
Win Rank: 25/36
Offense: 113.4 PPG (rank 23/36)
Defense: 110.4 PPG allowed (rank 18/36)
Pt Diff: +3.0
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cheddi Pellerin C 26 4.0 32.2 17.8 10.2 1.4 60.3 Stretch Big Anchor Big
Talis Kalemba C 23 4.5 32.3 18.8 9.5 1.1 60.2 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big TOP PPG
Demetris Kessee PF 26 5.0 32.0 17.7 3.0 4.7 60.6 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
Lukas Lanmuller PG 24 5.0 33.9 14.3 4.1 10.6 62.3 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack BEST CA
Marqueze Jackson PF 28 3.5 25.6 11.5 3.7 1.8 60.7 Glue Guy Helper
Keeon Grover PG 25 3.5 24.3 8.9 3.1 3.2 57.2 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Mathieu Rogers C 35 3.0 14.5 5.7 5.5 0.3 55.2 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Karim Zouita PF 26 4.5 19.4 9.8 3.9 4.1 57.8 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Morey Ball (wt avg proficiency: 19.1)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Morey Ball 19.1
Pace & Space 15.9
Balanced 14.8
Grit & Grind 4.8
Perimeter Centric 2.2
Post Centric 2.2
Seven Seconds 2.2
Triangle 0.6
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.24 17.09 +0.15
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.26 14.64 +1.62
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 11.61 12.92 -1.31
playmaking / Spacing 11.96 11.35 +0.61
playmaking / Passing 13.94 13.74 +0.21
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.97 12.52 -1.55
creation / Self-Creation 13.80 14.61 -0.81
creation / Finishing 13.74 15.14 -1.40
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.83 10.14 -1.31
playmaking / Gravity 11.77 13.67 -1.90
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 68%
Roll : Pop: 28:72
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 56:44
Corner 3 : Above Break: 57:43
Primary Scoring Options:
Talis Kalemba 18.8 PPG USG: 23.8% TS: 60.2% 3P: 26.9%
Cheddi Pellerin 17.8 PPG USG: 22.7% TS: 60.3% 3P: 39.9%
Demetris Kessee 17.7 PPG USG: 23.3% TS: 60.6% 3P: 39.3%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.30 14.49 +0.81
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.63 14.00 +0.63
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.43 12.95 -0.52
defense / Rim Protection 11.67 11.26 +0.41
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.70 13.26 -0.56
defense / Post Defense 13.87 11.35 +2.52
defense / Stealing 14.12 13.12 +1.00
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Point Of Attack x3
Wing Stopper x3
Anchor Big x2
Helper x1
Points Allowed: 110.4 (rank 18/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.70 vs 13.26 lg avg (-0.56)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.43 vs 12.95 lg avg (-0.52)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
defense / Post Defense 13.87 (lg avg 11.35, +2.52)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.26 (lg avg 14.64, +1.62)
creation / Foul Drawing 15.67 (lg avg 14.51, +1.17)
defense / Stealing 14.12 (lg avg 13.12, +1.00)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 13.26 (lg avg 12.40, +0.86)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
playmaking / Gravity 11.77 (lg avg 13.67, -1.90)
creation / Ball Dominance 12.20 (lg avg 13.90, -1.70)
playmaking / Playmaking 10.23 (lg avg 11.88, -1.66)
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.97 (lg avg 12.52, -1.55)
creation / Finishing 13.74 (lg avg 15.14, -1.40)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 11.61 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +1.67
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 8.83 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +3.39
physical / Strength Opp: 11.01 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +3.55
physical / Endurance Opp: 10.27 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +2.51
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (12.4 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.7 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (16.3 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
4. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Talis Kalemba (18.8 PPG, 23.8% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 8.83 (+3.39)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.43 (+2.06)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 15.09 (+1.16)
execution / Isolation Execution Denver 14.12 vs 13.05 (+1.07)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Denver 13.27 vs 11.61 (+1.67)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.67 (-4.27)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.26 (-2.60)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 13.87 (-2.42)
shooting / 3PT Shooting Denver 14.27 vs 16.26 (-1.98)
shooting / Inside Shooting Denver 15.87 vs 17.24 (-1.37)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 48-34
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +1.4)
Current Streak: W4
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Loss Streak: 5
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.8
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.3
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 32.5/g (league avg 29.3)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 51% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 49%, 2PT share 51%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Challenge Every Shot and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_boston_crusaders.txt
Charlotte Drones
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: CHARLOTTE DRONES
==========================================================================================
Record: 50-35 (0.588)
Win Rank: 23/36
Offense: 108.3 PPG (rank 33/36)
Defense: 104.3 PPG allowed (rank 3/36)
Pt Diff: +4.0
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
René Köpke PF 20 4.0 31.2 16.9 3.8 3.3 56.2 Slasher Wing Stopper
Stefan Ramos PF 26 5.0 30.6 18.6 8.1 2.3 57.5 Pick-and-Pop Big Mobile Big
Stanley Ogide PF 27 5.0 29.6 20.7 4.9 1.9 62.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Jamaria Flagg PG 28 5.0 27.4 10.1 2.8 7.5 58.5 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Dimitris Karras SG 20 4.0 27.0 11.1 4.0 1.8 58.4 Glue Guy Chaser
Keyon McCoy PG 26 4.5 24.7 16.1 3.4 6.4 55.9 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Kenney Holba PF 28 5.0 18.9 9.4 5.7 1.3 58.7 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Josh Clayton PG 23 3.0 21.6 4.7 1.1 3.3 49.4 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 16.7)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 16.7
Triangle 11.5
Morey Ball 10.3
Pace & Space 8.3
Post Centric 3.9
Seven Seconds 3.9
Grit & Grind 3.3
Perimeter Centric 3.2
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.01 17.09 -0.08
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.56 14.64 -0.08
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 15.54 12.92 +2.62
playmaking / Spacing 13.55 11.35 +2.19
playmaking / Passing 15.76 13.74 +2.02
playmaking / Ball Handling 15.16 12.52 +2.63
creation / Self-Creation 15.40 14.61 +0.79
creation / Finishing 16.23 15.14 +1.09
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 11.35 10.14 +1.22
playmaking / Gravity 12.92 13.67 -0.75
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 55%
Roll : Pop: 34:66
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 55:45
Corner 3 : Above Break: 51:49
Primary Scoring Options:
Stanley Ogide 20.7 PPG USG: 29.5% TS: 62.9% 3P: 42.3%
Stefan Ramos 18.6 PPG USG: 28.0% TS: 57.5% 3P: 39.1%
René Köpke 16.9 PPG USG: 25.4% TS: 56.2% 3P: 37.4%
Scoring Identity: elite PnR execution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 16.41 14.49 +1.92
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.14 14.00 +0.14
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.81 12.95 +0.86
defense / Rim Protection 10.72 11.26 -0.54
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.39 13.26 +0.13
defense / Post Defense 9.01 11.35 -2.34
defense / Stealing 13.82 13.12 +0.69
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Point Of Attack x3
Wing Stopper x2
Mobile Big x2
Chaser x1
Anchor Big x1
Points Allowed: 104.3 (rank 3/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 9.01 vs 11.35 lg avg (-2.34)
defense / Rim Protection 10.72 vs 11.26 lg avg (-0.54)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Ball Handling 15.16 (lg avg 12.52, +2.63)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 15.54 (lg avg 12.92, +2.62)
playmaking / Spacing 13.55 (lg avg 11.35, +2.19)
playmaking / Passing 15.76 (lg avg 13.74, +2.02)
defense / Help Defense 16.41 (lg avg 14.49, +1.92)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
defense / Post Defense 9.01 (lg avg 11.35, -2.34)
execution / Post Execution 6.04 (lg avg 8.35, -2.32)
physical / Strength 10.29 (lg avg 12.24, -1.95)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 10.80 (lg avg 12.40, -1.60)
creation / Ball Dominance 12.86 (lg avg 13.90, -1.04)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Post Defense Opp: 9.01 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +2.44
physical / Strength Opp: 10.29 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +4.27
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 10.72 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +1.61
physical / Endurance Opp: 10.61 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +2.17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.7 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Stanley Ogide (20.7 PPG, 29.5% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 9.01 (+2.44)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.72 (+1.61)
physical / Endurance Denver 12.77 vs 10.61 (+2.17)
physical / Quickness Denver 14.36 vs 12.69 (+1.67)
physical / Strength Denver 14.56 vs 10.29 (+4.27)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.92 (-4.52)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 13.04 (-4.13)
playmaking / Ball Handling Denver 12.10 vs 15.16 (-3.06)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 15.76 (-2.69)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 16.41 (-2.33)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 48-34
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (avg pt diff: +8.7)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Loss Streak: 5
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.5
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.5
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Hedge
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 15.5 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 54% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 46%, 2PT share 54%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_charlotte_drones.txt
Chicago Jailbirds
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: CHICAGO JAILBIRDS
==========================================================================================
Record: 66-39 (0.629)
Win Rank: 9/36
Offense: 118.1 PPG (rank 2/36)
Defense: 112.5 PPG allowed (rank 27/36)
Pt Diff: +5.6
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stanley Amakor C 28 5.0 33.5 17.2 7.8 5.8 60.9 Interior Playmaker Wing Stopper BEST CA
Luke Venizelos PF 29 5.0 33.0 12.7 7.2 2.6 60.0 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Devonte Bell PG 24 5.0 32.8 17.2 3.4 10.1 60.4 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Javar Bonham C 26 5.0 29.0 19.2 11.3 1.2 61.9 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big TOP PPG
Gage Woodward PG 26 4.5 30.1 15.2 3.6 7.9 60.5 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Arif Langston SF 29 5.0 24.1 11.5 4.6 2.2 61.4 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Emmanuel Blevins C 30 4.0 24.9 12.2 7.2 2.1 62.4 Interior Playmaker Anchor Big
Xavier Yates SF 20 4.5 19.3 9.5 2.8 3.9 54.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Pace & Space (wt avg proficiency: 19.5)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Pace & Space 19.5
Morey Ball 15.9
Balanced 14.8
Grit & Grind 4.2
Seven Seconds 3.0
Post Centric 2.7
Perimeter Centric 2.7
Triangle 0.3
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.75 17.09 +0.66
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.73 14.64 +2.10
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.81 12.92 +1.89
playmaking / Spacing 13.81 11.35 +2.46
playmaking / Passing 13.85 13.74 +0.11
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.55 12.52 +0.02
creation / Self-Creation 16.34 14.61 +1.73
creation / Finishing 16.51 15.14 +1.37
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 11.90 10.14 +1.76
playmaking / Gravity 16.07 13.67 +2.40
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 63%
Roll : Pop: 46:54
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 66:34
Corner 3 : Above Break: 57:43
Primary Scoring Options:
Javar Bonham 19.2 PPG USG: 25.1% TS: 61.9% 3P: 42.8%
Stanley Amakor 17.2 PPG USG: 19.7% TS: 60.9% 3P: 40.6%
Devonte Bell 17.2 PPG USG: 20.8% TS: 60.4% 3P: 39.5%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring; elite PnR execution; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.66 14.49 +1.17
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.41 14.00 +0.41
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14.61 12.95 +1.65
defense / Rim Protection 11.82 11.26 +0.56
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 15.79 13.26 +2.53
defense / Post Defense 10.55 11.35 -0.80
defense / Stealing 12.94 13.12 -0.18
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x5
Anchor Big x2
Point Of Attack x1
Mobile Big x1
Points Allowed: 112.5 (rank 27/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 10.55 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.80)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 15.37 (lg avg 12.32, +3.05)
playmaking / Playmaking 14.59 (lg avg 11.88, +2.71)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 15.79 (lg avg 13.26, +2.53)
playmaking / Spacing 13.81 (lg avg 11.35, +2.46)
playmaking / Gravity 16.07 (lg avg 13.67, +2.40)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
physical / Quickness 11.37 (lg avg 12.55, -1.18)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 11.41 (lg avg 12.40, -0.99)
defense / Post Defense 10.55 (lg avg 11.35, -0.80)
creation / Foul Drawing 13.79 (lg avg 14.51, -0.72)
physical / First Step 11.24 (lg avg 11.90, -0.66)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Quickness Opp: 11.37 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +2.99
defense / Post Defense Opp: 10.55 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +0.90
physical / First Step Opp: 11.24 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +2.48
physical / Speed Opp: 10.97 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +2.05
physical / Athleticism Opp: 12.82 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +2.01
defense / Stealing Opp: 12.94 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +0.94
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (16.7 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
2. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Javar Bonham (19.2 PPG, 25.1% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 14.97 (+1.28)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 12.82 (+2.01)
physical / First Step Denver 13.72 vs 11.24 (+2.48)
physical / Quickness Denver 14.36 vs 11.37 (+2.99)
physical / Speed Denver 13.02 vs 10.97 (+2.05)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 14.59 (-5.69)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding Denver 11.29 vs 15.37 (-4.07)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 16.34 (-3.25)
playmaking / Gravity Denver 12.90 vs 16.07 (-3.17)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding Denver 12.76 vs 15.79 (-3.03)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 48-34
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +5.0)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 8
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.9
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.5
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.8 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 33.5/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 49%, 2PT share 51%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_chicago_jailbirds.txt
Cincinnati Kings
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: CINCINNATI KINGS
==========================================================================================
Record: 62-40 (0.608)
Win Rank: 18/36
Offense: 116.2 PPG (rank 5/36)
Defense: 112.4 PPG allowed (rank 26/36)
Pt Diff: +3.8
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stephon Carlton C 34 5.0 33.4 18.5 9.3 5.1 67.1 Interior Playmaker Helper BEST CA
Russell Boozer C 33 4.5 31.1 17.2 8.3 4.5 62.1 Interior Playmaker Helper
Jacob Nazarian PG 28 4.5 31.2 17.5 5.6 8.2 55.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Tayshaun Aumiller PG 24 5.0 28.0 14.4 5.0 3.2 60.7 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Jimmy Cougar III PF 33 3.5 27.8 13.2 4.7 1.8 59.5 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Tommy Mock C 28 4.0 25.8 8.6 8.8 1.0 63.1 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Andrew Buller SF 30 4.5 17.8 7.4 2.5 1.6 60.0 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Reid Frahm SG 30 4.0 15.9 9.2 1.4 3.4 61.5 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Morey Ball (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Morey Ball 20.0
Balanced 17.1
Pace & Space 13.8
Triangle 11.2
Seven Seconds 5.5
Post Centric 4.3
Grit & Grind 3.5
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.92 17.09 +0.83
shooting / 3PT Shooting 15.60 14.64 +0.96
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.79 12.92 +0.88
playmaking / Spacing 11.78 11.35 +0.43
playmaking / Passing 12.71 13.74 -1.02
playmaking / Ball Handling 14.59 12.52 +2.07
creation / Self-Creation 15.16 14.61 +0.55
creation / Finishing 14.44 15.14 -0.70
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.86 10.14 -1.28
playmaking / Gravity 14.73 13.67 +1.07
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 39%
Roll : Pop: 44:56
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 78:22
Corner 3 : Above Break: 58:42
Primary Scoring Options:
Stephon Carlton 18.5 PPG USG: 20.0% TS: 67.1% 3P: 0.0%
Jacob Nazarian 17.5 PPG USG: 24.5% TS: 55.9% 3P: 34.7%
Russell Boozer 17.2 PPG USG: 21.8% TS: 62.1% 3P: 37.4%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring; elite PnR execution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.32 14.49 -0.18
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.22 14.00 -0.79
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.89 12.95 -0.06
defense / Rim Protection 12.11 11.26 +0.86
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 16.76 13.26 +3.50
defense / Post Defense 10.45 11.35 -0.90
defense / Stealing 13.61 13.12 +0.49
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Helper x2
Anchor Big x1
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 112.4 (rank 26/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 10.45 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.90)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.22 vs 14.00 lg avg (-0.79)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Strength 15.99 (lg avg 12.24, +3.76)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 16.00 (lg avg 12.32, +3.69)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 16.76 (lg avg 13.26, +3.50)
playmaking / Ball Handling 14.59 (lg avg 12.52, +2.07)
playmaking / Playmaking 13.73 (lg avg 11.88, +1.85)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
physical / Athleticism 11.75 (lg avg 13.16, -1.41)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.86 (lg avg 10.14, -1.28)
execution / Post Execution 7.32 (lg avg 8.35, -1.03)
playmaking / Passing 12.71 (lg avg 13.74, -1.02)
defense / Post Defense 10.45 (lg avg 11.35, -0.90)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Athleticism Opp: 11.75 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +3.07
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 8.86 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +3.36
defense / Post Defense Opp: 10.45 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +1.00
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 13.62 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +0.50
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (15.6 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
2. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Stephon Carlton (18.5 PPG, 20.0% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 8.86 (+3.36)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.89 (+1.59)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 10.45 (+1.00)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 11.75 (+3.07)
physical / First Step Denver 13.72 vs 12.62 (+1.10)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 13.73 (-4.83)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding Denver 11.29 vs 16.00 (-4.71)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding Denver 12.76 vs 16.76 (-4.00)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.22 (-3.81)
playmaking / Ball Handling Denver 12.10 vs 14.59 (-2.49)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 45-37
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (avg pt diff: -2.8)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 6
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.9
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.5
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.8 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 31.2/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_cincinnati_kings.txt
Cleveland Giants
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: CLEVELAND GIANTS
==========================================================================================
Record: 63-31 (0.670)
Win Rank: 4/36
Offense: 115.3 PPG (rank 11/36)
Defense: 109.0 PPG allowed (rank 8/36)
Pt Diff: +6.3
Class: ELITE CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jacob Fulwood PF 22 4.5 34.1 15.1 5.7 4.8 56.4 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
Alzee Sessoms PG 28 5.0 34.4 15.5 2.8 9.8 56.2 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Ishaq Osten PF 23 5.0 34.4 18.9 8.6 2.2 61.6 Versatile Big Mobile Big TOP PPG
Adrian Schwartz SG 30 4.5 28.6 16.3 5.3 3.5 62.8 Secondary Creator Chaser
Ðorde Petrović C 23 4.5 25.1 9.7 8.1 0.6 55.9 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Markus Voglsammer PF 32 3.5 29.6 18.3 5.1 2.8 55.8 Glue Guy Helper
Timo Hoffman C 33 3.0 15.8 6.4 5.7 0.6 66.3 Stretch Big Anchor Big
McKinley Power SG 20 3.5 13.9 6.4 1.6 3.7 59.9 Secondary Creator Chaser
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 19.8)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 19.8
Pace & Space 10.5
Morey Ball 7.8
Seven Seconds 7.2
Triangle 4.3
Grit & Grind 4.0
Perimeter Centric 3.6
Post Centric 3.2
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 18.34 17.09 +1.25
shooting / 3PT Shooting 15.36 14.64 +0.73
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.23 12.92 +0.31
playmaking / Spacing 11.11 11.35 -0.24
playmaking / Passing 12.92 13.74 -0.82
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.81 12.52 +0.29
creation / Self-Creation 14.02 14.61 -0.59
creation / Finishing 14.76 15.14 -0.38
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.04 10.14 -2.10
playmaking / Gravity 13.41 13.67 -0.26
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 38%
Roll : Pop: 47:53
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 72:28
Corner 3 : Above Break: 54:46
Primary Scoring Options:
Ishaq Osten 18.9 PPG USG: 21.8% TS: 61.6% 3P: 47.9%
Markus Voglsammer 18.3 PPG USG: 26.9% TS: 55.8% 3P: 35.9%
Adrian Schwartz 16.3 PPG USG: 22.0% TS: 62.8% 3P: 41.9%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.77 14.49 +0.28
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.26 14.00 -0.74
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.67 12.95 -1.29
defense / Rim Protection 12.10 11.26 +0.84
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.00 13.26 +0.74
defense / Post Defense 11.02 11.35 -0.33
defense / Stealing 12.78 13.12 -0.35
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Mobile Big x2
Chaser x2
Point Of Attack x2
Anchor Big x2
Wing Stopper x1
Helper x1
Points Allowed: 109.0 (rank 8/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.67 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.29)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.26 vs 14.00 lg avg (-0.74)
defense / Stealing 12.78 vs 13.12 lg avg (-0.35)
defense / Post Defense 11.02 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.33)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 13.68 (lg avg 12.32, +1.36)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 13.73 (lg avg 12.40, +1.33)
execution / Isolation Execution 15.09 (lg avg 13.84, +1.25)
shooting / Inside Shooting 18.34 (lg avg 17.09, +1.25)
execution / Post Execution 9.41 (lg avg 8.35, +1.06)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.04 (lg avg 10.14, -2.10)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.67 (lg avg 12.95, -1.29)
playmaking / Passing 12.92 (lg avg 13.74, -0.82)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.26 (lg avg 14.00, -0.74)
physical / First Step 11.30 (lg avg 11.90, -0.61)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 8.04 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +4.18
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 11.67 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +2.82
physical / First Step Opp: 11.30 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +2.43
physical / Athleticism Opp: 12.58 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +2.24
defense / Stealing Opp: 12.78 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +1.10
defense / Post Defense Opp: 11.02 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +0.43
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.7 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (15.4 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Ishaq Osten (18.9 PPG, 21.8% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 8.04 (+4.18)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.67 (+2.82)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 12.78 (+1.10)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 14.57 (+1.69)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 12.58 (+2.24)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.41 (-3.31)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.73 (-3.07)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.23 (-2.82)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 11.70 (-2.80)
shooting / Inside Shooting Denver 15.87 vs 18.34 (-2.47)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 54-28
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (avg pt diff: +10.7)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 10
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +6.5
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +6.1
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.2 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 30.7/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 46%, 2PT share 54%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_cleveland_giants.txt
Dallas Predators
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: DALLAS PREDATORS
==========================================================================================
Record: 51-32 (0.614)
Win Rank: 14/36
Offense: 113.7 PPG (rank 21/36)
Defense: 109.4 PPG allowed (rank 14/36)
Pt Diff: +4.3
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bogdan Nikolic C 21 4.5 31.7 19.0 9.5 1.9 58.0 Pick-and-Pop Big Anchor Big
Rahsool Kellar PF 20 3.5 30.8 11.1 4.3 3.6 53.1 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Denzel Cruz SG 21 4.0 32.7 16.8 2.8 3.9 55.4 Slasher Chaser
Raekwon Pack PF 27 5.0 29.7 10.9 5.2 3.6 59.1 Glue Guy Wing Stopper BEST CA
Keshaun Freeman C 20 4.0 29.1 20.7 9.9 0.5 59.1 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big TOP PPG
Waylan Loftin C 21 4.0 28.0 9.4 7.9 1.1 59.2 Pick-and-Pop Big Anchor Big
Ahsante Clinkscales PG 20 3.0 20.2 3.8 1.5 6.0 51.0 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Ish Hampton PG 30 4.5 16.3 7.5 1.8 3.2 61.2 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Morey Ball 9.5
Pace & Space 8.3
Grit & Grind 3.9
Perimeter Centric 3.1
Seven Seconds 2.5
Post Centric 2.0
Triangle 1.2
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 15.95 17.09 -1.14
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.45 14.64 -0.19
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.08 12.92 +1.16
playmaking / Spacing 11.00 11.35 -0.36
playmaking / Passing 13.46 13.74 -0.28
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.35 12.52 -1.17
creation / Self-Creation 13.77 14.61 -0.84
creation / Finishing 15.29 15.14 +0.15
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.67 10.14 -1.47
playmaking / Gravity 12.86 13.67 -0.81
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 50%
Roll : Pop: 38:62
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 66:34
Corner 3 : Above Break: 61:39
Primary Scoring Options:
Keshaun Freeman 20.7 PPG USG: 29.4% TS: 59.1% 3P: 31.2%
Bogdan Nikolic 19.0 PPG USG: 25.6% TS: 58.0% 3P: 32.4%
Denzel Cruz 16.8 PPG USG: 23.3% TS: 55.4% 3P: 37.1%
Scoring Identity: elite PnR execution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.64 14.49 +0.15
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.90 14.00 +0.90
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.59 12.95 +0.64
defense / Rim Protection 12.06 11.26 +0.80
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.73 13.26 +1.47
defense / Post Defense 9.29 11.35 -2.05
defense / Stealing 13.33 13.12 +0.20
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Anchor Big x3
Wing Stopper x2
Point Of Attack x2
Chaser x1
Points Allowed: 109.4 (rank 14/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 9.29 vs 11.35 lg avg (-2.05)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.73 (lg avg 13.26, +1.47)
execution / Isolation Execution 15.18 (lg avg 13.84, +1.34)
physical / Athleticism 14.36 (lg avg 13.16, +1.19)
creation / Foul Drawing 15.69 (lg avg 14.51, +1.18)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.08 (lg avg 12.92, +1.16)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
playmaking / Playmaking 9.31 (lg avg 11.88, -2.57)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 9.86 (lg avg 12.40, -2.54)
physical / Speed 9.19 (lg avg 11.56, -2.38)
defense / Post Defense 9.29 (lg avg 11.35, -2.05)
execution / Basketball IQ 12.96 (lg avg 14.90, -1.94)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Speed Opp: 9.19 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +3.83
defense / Post Defense Opp: 9.29 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +2.16
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 12.96 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +3.30
physical / Endurance Opp: 9.25 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +3.52
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 8.67 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +3.55
physical / Strength Opp: 11.00 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +3.57
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Keshaun Freeman (20.7 PPG, 29.4% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 8.67 (+3.55)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 9.29 (+2.16)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 12.96 (+3.30)
physical / Endurance Denver 12.77 vs 9.25 (+3.52)
physical / First Step Denver 13.72 vs 12.66 (+1.06)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.69 (-4.28)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.04 (-2.94)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding Denver 12.76 vs 14.73 (-1.97)
execution / Isolation Execution Denver 14.12 vs 15.18 (-1.07)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 50-32
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 10-0 (avg pt diff: +13.5)
Current Streak: W12
Longest Win Streak: 12
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.2
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.8
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.1 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 52% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 48%, 2PT share 52%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_dallas_predators.txt
Detroit Mustangs
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: DETROIT MUSTANGS
==========================================================================================
Record: 50-39 (0.562)
Win Rank: 29/36
Offense: 112.3 PPG (rank 28/36)
Defense: 110.1 PPG allowed (rank 16/36)
Pt Diff: +2.2
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jason Cheaney Jr PF 32 5.0 32.3 28.2 5.0 4.8 59.3 Secondary Creator Helper BEST CA
LaBradford Reath PF 24 5.0 29.5 14.7 8.0 1.8 58.4 Glue Guy Helper
Amara Perez C 24 5.0 29.0 15.1 10.4 0.8 60.2 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Dallan Owusu PF 27 5.0 29.2 13.7 3.5 4.2 57.1 Slasher Wing Stopper
Josh Vickery PG 32 4.5 24.9 7.8 2.0 6.3 60.7 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Tawaski Casuga SG 26 4.0 21.1 6.6 1.7 5.9 55.8 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Matt Roberts PF 29 4.0 17.6 7.5 2.7 1.4 58.4 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Nazeer Odiambo PG 20 3.5 18.8 7.3 1.6 2.7 62.4 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Morey Ball (wt avg proficiency: 17.4)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Morey Ball 17.4
Balanced 17.2
Pace & Space 17.1
Grit & Grind 3.6
Seven Seconds 2.2
Perimeter Centric 2.1
Post Centric 2.0
Triangle 0.7
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.01 17.09 -0.08
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.51 14.64 +1.87
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.77 12.92 +0.85
playmaking / Spacing 11.42 11.35 +0.06
playmaking / Passing 12.98 13.74 -0.76
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.94 12.52 +0.42
creation / Self-Creation 16.70 14.61 +2.09
creation / Finishing 14.76 15.14 -0.38
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 12.40 10.14 +2.26
playmaking / Gravity 15.18 13.67 +1.52
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 71%
Roll : Pop: 41:59
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 72:28
Corner 3 : Above Break: 62:38
Primary Scoring Options:
Jason Cheaney Jr 28.2 PPG USG: 36.7% TS: 59.3% 3P: 38.1%
Amara Perez 15.1 PPG USG: 21.6% TS: 60.2% 3P: 24.1%
LaBradford Reath 14.7 PPG USG: 21.3% TS: 58.4% 3P: 32.7%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; elite PnR execution; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.08 14.49 +0.59
defense / Off-Ball Defense 16.70 14.00 +2.69
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.25 12.95 +2.30
defense / Rim Protection 11.85 11.26 +0.59
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.39 13.26 -0.87
defense / Post Defense 13.07 11.35 +1.73
defense / Stealing 15.92 13.12 +2.80
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Anchor Big x3
Helper x2
Point Of Attack x2
Points Allowed: 110.1 (rank 16/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.39 vs 13.26 lg avg (-0.87)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
defense / Stealing 15.92 (lg avg 13.12, +2.80)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 16.70 (lg avg 14.00, +2.69)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.25 (lg avg 12.95, +2.30)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 12.40 (lg avg 10.14, +2.26)
physical / Endurance 13.21 (lg avg 11.10, +2.10)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 11.45 (lg avg 12.32, -0.87)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.39 (lg avg 13.26, -0.87)
physical / Strength 11.40 (lg avg 12.24, -0.84)
creation / Ball Dominance 13.13 (lg avg 13.90, -0.77)
playmaking / Passing 12.98 (lg avg 13.74, -0.76)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Strength Opp: 11.40 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +3.16
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 14.77 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +1.49
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.4 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
2. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (16.5 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Jason Cheaney Jr (28.2 PPG, 36.7% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 14.77 (+1.49)
physical / First Step Denver 13.72 vs 12.56 (+1.17)
physical / Strength Denver 14.56 vs 11.40 (+3.16)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 12.87 (-3.96)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 16.70 (-3.61)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.87 (-3.47)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.57 (-2.91)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 16.70 (-2.75)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 45-37
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (avg pt diff: +2.6)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 6
Longest Loss Streak: 5
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: -0.0
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.3
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.8 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 33.0/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 49%, 2PT share 51%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases. Watch Jason Cheaney Jr (25% of scoring).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_detroit_mustangs.txt
Houston Lightning
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: HOUSTON LIGHTNING
==========================================================================================
Record: 54-29 (0.651)
Win Rank: 6/36
Offense: 115.3 PPG (rank 11/36)
Defense: 110.1 PPG allowed (rank 16/36)
Pt Diff: +5.2
Class: ELITE CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eckhard Schneiders C 23 3.5 29.7 16.7 9.6 1.1 59.3 Post Scorer Anchor Big TOP PPG
Niklas Harris PG 30 4.5 29.1 16.0 2.6 6.8 56.5 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Erickson Wirth SF 24 4.5 27.4 11.4 3.4 3.5 55.7 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Paris Salas C 27 4.0 24.9 7.5 8.7 1.0 62.9 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Jadakiss Hollywood C 20 2.5 22.0 6.0 6.6 0.7 56.3 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Rick Callison PG 22 2.5 18.5 8.4 1.2 4.1 49.1 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Leonardo Bianchi C 20 4.0 18.2 6.2 4.4 1.0 58.8 Post Scorer Mobile Big
Marinho Sciola PG 30 4.5 15.5 9.0 0.8 2.9 55.8 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 19.3)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 19.3
Pace & Space 10.1
Morey Ball 8.6
Triangle 4.7
Seven Seconds 4.4
Grit & Grind 3.7
Perimeter Centric 3.1
Post Centric 2.6
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.36 17.09 -0.73
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.88 14.64 -0.75
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.79 12.92 -0.13
playmaking / Spacing 10.63 11.35 -0.72
playmaking / Passing 11.40 13.74 -2.33
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.19 12.52 -2.34
creation / Self-Creation 13.09 14.61 -1.52
creation / Finishing 15.38 15.14 +0.23
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 7.76 10.14 -2.38
playmaking / Gravity 11.48 13.67 -2.19
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 56%
Roll : Pop: 51:49
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 66:34
Corner 3 : Above Break: 55:45
Primary Scoring Options:
Eckhard Schneiders 16.7 PPG USG: 23.1% TS: 59.3% 3P: 0.0%
Niklas Harris 16.0 PPG USG: 23.5% TS: 56.5% 3P: 35.6%
Erickson Wirth 11.4 PPG USG: 18.6% TS: 55.7% 3P: 39.8%
Scoring Identity: poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 12.45 14.49 -2.04
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.88 14.00 -1.12
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.35 12.95 -1.60
defense / Rim Protection 10.05 11.26 -1.21
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.53 13.26 -0.72
defense / Post Defense 11.37 11.35 +0.02
defense / Stealing 10.31 13.12 -2.82
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Anchor Big x4
Point Of Attack x3
Wing Stopper x1
Chaser x1
Mobile Big x1
Points Allowed: 110.1 (rank 16/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Stealing 10.31 vs 13.12 lg avg (-2.82)
defense / Help Defense 12.45 vs 14.49 lg avg (-2.04)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.35 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.60)
defense / Rim Protection 10.05 vs 11.26 lg avg (-1.21)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.88 vs 14.00 lg avg (-1.12)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.53 vs 13.26 lg avg (-0.72)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
execution / Post Execution 9.64 (lg avg 8.35, +1.29)
physical / Athleticism 14.03 (lg avg 13.16, +0.86)
physical / First Step 12.54 (lg avg 11.90, +0.64)
creation / Finishing 15.38 (lg avg 15.14, +0.23)
creation / Ball Dominance 14.05 (lg avg 13.90, +0.15)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
playmaking / Playmaking 8.57 (lg avg 11.88, -3.32)
defense / Stealing 10.31 (lg avg 13.12, -2.82)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 7.76 (lg avg 10.14, -2.38)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 10.03 (lg avg 12.40, -2.37)
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.19 (lg avg 12.52, -2.34)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Stealing Opp: 10.31 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +3.57
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 7.76 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +4.46
physical / Endurance Opp: 9.01 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +3.76
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 12.01 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +2.11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.0 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (12.4 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.4 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
4. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.5 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
5. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (13.9 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
6. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (10.6 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 7.76 (+4.46)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 12.45 (+1.63)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 12.88 (+1.06)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.35 (+3.14)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.05 (+2.28)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.64 (-3.53)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.94 (-2.54)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 14.05 (-1.94)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 54-28
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (avg pt diff: +1.8)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +6.5
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.8
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 12.8 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 54% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 46%, 2PT share 54%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_houston_lightning.txt
Indiana Stonecutters
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: INDIANA STONECUTTERS
==========================================================================================
Record: 49-34 (0.590)
Win Rank: 22/36
Offense: 116.1 PPG (rank 7/36)
Defense: 112.6 PPG allowed (rank 29/36)
Pt Diff: +3.5
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gleb Luzan PF 20 4.0 32.2 15.1 8.8 2.4 57.0 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Jamaya Patton PF 23 4.5 31.2 12.6 8.4 1.2 57.4 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Trevon King PF 21 4.0 29.2 12.2 3.8 2.4 54.2 Secondary Creator Chaser
Brandon Holyfield PG 20 3.5 27.4 10.1 2.7 7.7 58.6 Primary Ballhandler Low Activity
Caleb Donovan C 21 4.5 29.1 12.8 8.4 1.9 55.2 Stretch Big Mobile Big
Quantez Franklin SF 20 4.5 30.1 17.3 3.8 4.7 50.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Jaron Cavalaris PG 20 3.0 19.9 7.2 3.1 5.1 56.5 Secondary Creator Point Of Attack
Demetrice Davis PG 29 5.0 18.0 12.3 2.8 2.2 56.7 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Pace & Space (wt avg proficiency: 18.4)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Pace & Space 18.4
Balanced 13.9
Morey Ball 8.6
Seven Seconds 2.6
Perimeter Centric 2.1
Grit & Grind 1.7
Post Centric 1.7
Triangle 1.3
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.65 17.09 -0.44
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.54 14.64 -1.10
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.72 12.92 +0.80
playmaking / Spacing 10.79 11.35 -0.56
playmaking / Passing 13.13 13.74 -0.61
playmaking / Ball Handling 14.91 12.52 +2.39
creation / Self-Creation 14.20 14.61 -0.41
creation / Finishing 15.13 15.14 -0.01
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.15 10.14 -0.99
playmaking / Gravity 13.83 13.67 +0.16
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 60%
Roll : Pop: 40:60
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 53:47
Corner 3 : Above Break: 55:45
Primary Scoring Options:
Quantez Franklin 17.3 PPG USG: 27.9% TS: 50.6% 3P: 33.8%
Gleb Luzan 15.1 PPG USG: 20.0% TS: 57.0% 3P: 31.6%
Caleb Donovan 12.8 PPG USG: 19.1% TS: 55.2% 3P: 34.7%
Scoring Identity: elite PnR execution; poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.23 14.49 -1.26
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.39 14.00 -0.61
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.47 12.95 -1.48
defense / Rim Protection 8.76 11.26 -2.50
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.01 13.26 -2.25
defense / Post Defense 11.69 11.35 +0.34
defense / Stealing 13.63 13.12 +0.51
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Mobile Big x3
Chaser x1
Point Of Attack x1
Low Activity x1
Points Allowed: 112.6 (rank 29/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Rim Protection 8.76 vs 11.26 lg avg (-2.50)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.01 vs 13.26 lg avg (-2.25)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.47 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.48)
defense / Help Defense 13.23 vs 14.49 lg avg (-1.26)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.39 vs 14.00 lg avg (-0.61)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Ball Handling 14.91 (lg avg 12.52, +2.39)
physical / Speed 12.94 (lg avg 11.56, +1.38)
physical / Athleticism 14.50 (lg avg 13.16, +1.33)
playmaking / Playmaking 12.97 (lg avg 11.88, +1.09)
execution / Isolation Execution 14.91 (lg avg 13.84, +1.07)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
execution / Basketball IQ 12.31 (lg avg 14.90, -2.59)
defense / Rim Protection 8.76 (lg avg 11.26, -2.50)
creation / Ball Dominance 11.59 (lg avg 13.90, -2.31)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.01 (lg avg 13.26, -2.25)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.47 (lg avg 12.95, -1.48)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 12.31 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +3.95
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 8.76 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +3.56
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 11.47 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +3.02
physical / Endurance Opp: 9.86 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +2.92
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 9.15 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +3.07
physical / First Step Opp: 11.15 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +2.57
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (8.8 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (13.2 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.5 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
4. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (11.0 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
5. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (13.5 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
6. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (10.8 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.15 (+3.07)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.47 (+3.02)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 8.76 (+3.56)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 12.31 (+3.95)
physical / Endurance Denver 12.77 vs 9.86 (+2.92)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 12.97 (-4.07)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.01 (-2.90)
playmaking / Ball Handling Denver 12.10 vs 14.91 (-2.81)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.93 (-2.52)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding Denver 11.29 vs 13.05 (-1.75)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 48-34
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (avg pt diff: -0.6)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.3
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +2.4
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.7 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (55%) and outside (45%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_indiana_stonecutters.txt
Kansas City Knights
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: KANSAS CITY KNIGHTS
==========================================================================================
Record: 64-39 (0.621)
Win Rank: 12/36
Offense: 115.8 PPG (rank 8/36)
Defense: 113.0 PPG allowed (rank 33/36)
Pt Diff: +2.8
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
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SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
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Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kelvin Page PF 23 5.0 31.0 14.0 5.4 5.7 57.8 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Zeke Barry PF 24 5.0 29.9 15.3 9.4 1.1 65.4 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Kavian Hawes C 24 5.0 29.4 22.0 9.0 1.6 69.3 Post Scorer Mobile Big BEST CA
Andre Griffin PF 28 5.0 29.9 15.6 4.4 4.6 60.6 Secondary Creator Chaser
Domonkos Biro PF 23 4.5 25.8 10.7 2.5 4.6 53.4 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Ruben Miramontes PG 27 4.5 17.6 9.9 2.6 2.5 60.5 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Akani Adekoya PG 25 4.0 15.0 5.8 0.9 4.3 63.5 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Lazar Dragovic C 29 5.0 12.5 5.8 2.5 1.0 68.6 Roll-and-Cut Big Helper
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SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
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Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 19.3)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 19.3
Morey Ball 19.0
Pace & Space 17.5
Grit & Grind 6.7
Post Centric 3.4
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Seven Seconds 2.0
Triangle 0.0
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.79 17.09 +0.70
shooting / 3PT Shooting 15.94 14.64 +1.30
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.38 12.92 +1.46
playmaking / Spacing 11.76 11.35 +0.41
playmaking / Passing 14.44 13.74 +0.70
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.68 12.52 +0.16
creation / Self-Creation 15.61 14.61 +1.00
creation / Finishing 15.34 15.14 +0.19
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 12.92 10.14 +2.78
playmaking / Gravity 14.71 13.67 +1.04
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 68%
Roll : Pop: 35:65
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 64:36
Corner 3 : Above Break: 66:34
Primary Scoring Options:
Kavian Hawes 22.0 PPG USG: 26.7% TS: 69.3% 3P: 43.8%
Andre Griffin 15.6 PPG USG: 21.4% TS: 60.6% 3P: 42.2%
Zeke Barry 15.3 PPG USG: 19.6% TS: 65.4% 3P: 32.4%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring; elite PnR execution; drive-heavy
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SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
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Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.13 14.49 +0.64
defense / Off-Ball Defense 16.29 14.00 +2.29
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.76 12.95 +2.80
defense / Rim Protection 10.45 11.26 -0.81
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.12 13.26 +0.86
defense / Post Defense 13.78 11.35 +2.43
defense / Stealing 15.47 13.12 +2.34
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Mobile Big x2
Chaser x1
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 113.0 (rank 33/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Rim Protection 10.45 vs 11.26 lg avg (-0.81)
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SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
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Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Speed 14.54 (lg avg 11.56, +2.97)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.76 (lg avg 12.95, +2.80)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 12.92 (lg avg 10.14, +2.78)
defense / Post Defense 13.78 (lg avg 11.35, +2.43)
defense / Stealing 15.47 (lg avg 13.12, +2.34)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
creation / Ball Dominance 12.76 (lg avg 13.90, -1.14)
defense / Rim Protection 10.45 (lg avg 11.26, -0.81)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 10.45 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +1.88
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SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
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Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.4 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (15.9 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Kavian Hawes (22.0 PPG, 26.7% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.45 (+1.88)
physical / Strength Denver 14.56 vs 13.01 (+1.56)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 13.88 (-4.98)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.91 (-3.50)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.44 (-3.34)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 15.61 (-2.51)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.12 (-2.46)
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SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
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Home Record: 48-34
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (avg pt diff: +0.8)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: -1.1
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.5
Season Trend: IMPROVING
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SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
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RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.4 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 31.9/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases.
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Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_kansas_city_knights.txt
Las Vegas Scorpions
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SCOUTING REPORT: LAS VEGAS SCORPIONS
==========================================================================================
Record: 65-31 (0.677)
Win Rank: 2/36
Offense: 114.8 PPG (rank 16/36)
Defense: 109.1 PPG allowed (rank 11/36)
Pt Diff: +5.7
Class: ELITE CONTENDER
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SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
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Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zaire Phifer SF 24 5.0 33.1 19.4 5.6 3.0 59.3 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Devonne Goldwire PG 24 4.5 33.1 13.7 2.8 6.4 60.6 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
DeLazarus Russell C 23 4.5 32.1 11.2 8.5 3.4 63.4 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Darius Stephenson PF 31 4.5 29.4 18.1 4.5 3.6 56.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Tanner Mitchell C 20 5.0 27.0 14.4 7.8 2.8 62.9 Versatile Big Anchor Big
Willie Bennett SF 30 4.5 23.0 12.3 2.8 2.0 58.2 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Javi Gonzalez C 32 4.0 21.7 7.9 7.0 1.0 53.3 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Raheem Barkley C 25 5.0 17.8 5.4 4.6 1.7 53.0 Post Bully Mobile Big
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SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
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Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Pace & Space 16.7
Morey Ball 5.9
Seven Seconds 2.7
Post Centric 2.6
Perimeter Centric 2.1
Grit & Grind 1.2
Triangle 0.8
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.84 17.09 +0.75
shooting / 3PT Shooting 15.15 14.64 +0.51
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.99 12.92 +0.07
playmaking / Spacing 14.38 11.35 +3.02
playmaking / Passing 15.45 13.74 +1.71
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.66 12.52 +1.14
creation / Self-Creation 15.32 14.61 +0.71
creation / Finishing 15.52 15.14 +0.38
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.66 10.14 -0.47
playmaking / Gravity 14.90 13.67 +1.23
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 50%
Roll : Pop: 38:62
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 57:43
Corner 3 : Above Break: 52:48
Primary Scoring Options:
Zaire Phifer 19.4 PPG USG: 24.8% TS: 59.3% 3P: 41.2%
Darius Stephenson 18.1 PPG USG: 27.0% TS: 56.6% 3P: 36.6%
Tanner Mitchell 14.4 PPG USG: 21.5% TS: 62.9% 3P: 43.7%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring
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SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.36 14.49 -1.13
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.53 14.00 +0.53
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.40 12.95 -1.56
defense / Rim Protection 10.61 11.26 -0.65
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.87 13.26 +0.61
defense / Post Defense 9.48 11.35 -1.87
defense / Stealing 13.25 13.12 +0.13
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Anchor Big x3
Point Of Attack x2
Mobile Big x1
Chaser x1
Points Allowed: 109.1 (rank 11/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 9.48 vs 11.35 lg avg (-1.87)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.40 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.56)
defense / Help Defense 13.36 vs 14.49 lg avg (-1.13)
defense / Rim Protection 10.61 vs 11.26 lg avg (-0.65)
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SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
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Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Spacing 14.38 (lg avg 11.35, +3.02)
playmaking / Playmaking 14.52 (lg avg 11.88, +2.63)
playmaking / Passing 15.45 (lg avg 13.74, +1.71)
creation / Foul Drawing 16.03 (lg avg 14.51, +1.52)
playmaking / Gravity 14.90 (lg avg 13.67, +1.23)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
defense / Post Defense 9.48 (lg avg 11.35, -1.87)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.40 (lg avg 12.95, -1.56)
defense / Help Defense 13.36 (lg avg 14.49, -1.13)
defense / Rim Protection 10.61 (lg avg 11.26, -0.65)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.66 (lg avg 10.14, -0.47)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Post Defense Opp: 9.48 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +1.97
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 11.40 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +3.09
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 10.61 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +1.71
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 9.66 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +2.55
physical / First Step Opp: 11.44 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +2.28
physical / Athleticism Opp: 12.82 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +2.01
physical / Endurance Opp: 10.79 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +1.98
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 14.89 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +1.37
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SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.6 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (13.4 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.4 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
4. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (15.2 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
5. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Zaire Phifer (19.4 PPG, 24.8% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.66 (+2.55)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.40 (+3.09)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 9.48 (+1.97)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.61 (+1.71)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 14.89 (+1.37)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 14.52 (-5.61)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 16.03 (-4.62)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 15.07 (-2.96)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.68 (-2.57)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 15.45 (-2.39)
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SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
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Home Record: 56-26
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (avg pt diff: +10.3)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 11
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.5
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +8.5
Season Trend: IMPROVING
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SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
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RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.0 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 54% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 46%, 2PT share 54%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
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Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_las_vegas_scorpions.txt
Los Angeles Fireballs
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: LOS ANGELES FIREBALLS
==========================================================================================
Record: 51-34 (0.600)
Win Rank: 21/36
Offense: 117.2 PPG (rank 3/36)
Defense: 114.3 PPG allowed (rank 35/36)
Pt Diff: +2.9
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
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SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
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Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Basil Sanchious PG 24 3.5 33.7 12.0 3.1 9.2 55.4 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Dion Sowder PF 29 5.0 33.4 18.5 7.9 4.0 62.2 Versatile Big Chaser BEST CA
Triston Dantley C 20 4.0 33.2 15.3 12.6 1.2 58.2 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Lamar Claxton Jr PF 20 4.0 32.2 15.7 3.3 4.0 53.4 Secondary Creator Chaser
Cedric Rodgers SF 30 5.0 33.0 30.0 4.8 4.5 60.0 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Damjan Nemanič SG 30 4.5 21.6 10.7 3.5 2.5 62.9 Post Bully Mobile Big
Lloyd Bruton PG 25 4.5 12.4 6.0 1.6 3.1 55.0 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
TreDarius Love C 24 4.5 12.6 3.5 4.8 0.5 56.5 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
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SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
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Offensive Identity: Pace & Space (wt avg proficiency: 19.8)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Pace & Space 19.8
Balanced 16.1
Morey Ball 8.4
Post Centric 6.4
Seven Seconds 2.9
Perimeter Centric 2.5
Triangle 1.8
Grit & Grind 1.7
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.27 17.09 +0.18
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.91 14.64 -0.73
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.33 12.92 +0.41
playmaking / Spacing 10.57 11.35 -0.78
playmaking / Passing 15.75 13.74 +2.01
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.57 12.52 +1.05
creation / Self-Creation 15.55 14.61 +0.94
creation / Finishing 16.34 15.14 +1.20
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.00 10.14 -0.13
playmaking / Gravity 14.42 13.67 +0.75
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 62%
Roll : Pop: 26:74
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 71:29
Corner 3 : Above Break: 70:30
Primary Scoring Options:
Cedric Rodgers 30.0 PPG USG: 36.5% TS: 60.0% 3P: 33.7%
Dion Sowder 18.5 PPG USG: 21.5% TS: 62.2% 3P: 39.7%
Guy Vasquez 17.2 PPG USG: 25.1% TS: 60.7% 3P: 45.9%
Scoring Identity: poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
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SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
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Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.22 14.49 -0.27
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.98 14.00 +0.97
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.66 12.95 -0.29
defense / Rim Protection 11.58 11.26 +0.32
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.02 13.26 -0.23
defense / Post Defense 10.71 11.35 -0.64
defense / Stealing 12.85 13.12 -0.27
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Chaser x2
Wing Stopper x2
Mobile Big x2
Anchor Big x1
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 114.3 (rank 35/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 10.71 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.64)
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SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
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Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Passing 15.75 (lg avg 13.74, +2.01)
physical / Speed 13.55 (lg avg 11.56, +1.98)
creation / Finishing 16.34 (lg avg 15.14, +1.20)
physical / First Step 13.08 (lg avg 11.90, +1.18)
physical / Endurance 12.16 (lg avg 11.10, +1.06)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
physical / Strength 10.82 (lg avg 12.24, -1.42)
physical / Athleticism 12.34 (lg avg 13.16, -0.82)
playmaking / Spacing 10.57 (lg avg 11.35, -0.78)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.91 (lg avg 14.64, -0.73)
defense / Post Defense 10.71 (lg avg 11.35, -0.64)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Strength Opp: 10.82 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +3.74
physical / Athleticism Opp: 12.34 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +2.48
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 10.57 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +1.63
defense / Post Defense Opp: 10.71 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +0.74
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 12.66 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +1.82
defense / Stealing Opp: 12.85 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +1.03
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SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (13.9 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
2. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (10.6 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Cedric Rodgers (30.0 PPG, 36.5% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.00 (+2.21)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.66 (+1.82)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 12.85 (+1.03)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 12.34 (+2.48)
physical / Quickness Denver 14.36 vs 12.65 (+1.71)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.24 (-3.14)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 11.74 (-2.83)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 15.75 (-2.68)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.90 (-2.50)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 15.55 (-2.46)
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SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 49-33
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (avg pt diff: +15.9)
Current Streak: W8
Longest Win Streak: 8
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.6
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.4
Season Trend: IMPROVING
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SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
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RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.3 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (55%) and outside (45%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases. Watch Cedric Rodgers (26% of scoring).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_los_angeles_fireballs.txt
Louisville Colonels
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: LOUISVILLE COLONELS
==========================================================================================
Record: 57-40 (0.588)
Win Rank: 23/36
Offense: 114.3 PPG (rank 18/36)
Defense: 111.0 PPG allowed (rank 20/36)
Pt Diff: +3.3
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Terrence Swan PG 27 5.0 34.2 17.9 4.7 5.0 58.4 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Dantrell Blackman PG 24 4.0 31.6 15.5 2.6 7.3 57.5 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Tyrone George C 24 5.0 32.0 14.7 13.0 2.2 62.4 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big BEST CA
Jeron Davis SF 22 4.5 26.4 15.1 2.7 3.8 59.0 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Jontavious Brogna PF 24 5.0 32.0 15.7 4.3 3.0 52.3 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
LeAndre Kokal PF 25 4.5 24.1 6.0 7.1 0.9 59.9 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Ellis Kennedy C 27 5.0 14.3 6.1 4.7 1.4 61.0 Interior Playmaker Mobile Big
Damir Markovic C 33 3.0 13.2 8.7 3.8 0.6 67.0 Stretch Big Anchor Big
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Morey Ball 17.0
Pace & Space 13.9
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Post Centric 2.0
Seven Seconds 2.0
Grit & Grind 1.0
Triangle 0.0
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.42 17.09 +0.33
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.93 14.64 +0.29
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.08 12.92 +1.16
playmaking / Spacing 11.88 11.35 +0.52
playmaking / Passing 15.33 13.74 +1.60
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.93 12.52 -0.60
creation / Self-Creation 15.03 14.61 +0.43
creation / Finishing 15.44 15.14 +0.30
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 11.34 10.14 +1.20
playmaking / Gravity 13.84 13.67 +0.18
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 56%
Roll : Pop: 53:47
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 49:51
Corner 3 : Above Break: 52:48
Primary Scoring Options:
Andre Wright 19.2 PPG USG: 23.7% TS: 63.4% 3P: 28.6%
Terrence Swan 17.9 PPG USG: 22.0% TS: 58.4% 3P: 36.2%
Jontavious Brogna 15.7 PPG USG: 23.0% TS: 52.3% 3P: 34.5%
Scoring Identity: elite PnR execution; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.69 14.49 +0.20
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.91 14.00 +0.91
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.46 12.95 -0.49
defense / Rim Protection 11.82 11.26 +0.57
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.70 13.26 -0.56
defense / Post Defense 11.57 11.35 +0.22
defense / Stealing 12.84 13.12 -0.28
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Anchor Big x1
Mobile Big x1
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 111.0 (rank 20/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.70 vs 13.26 lg avg (-0.56)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.46 vs 12.95 lg avg (-0.49)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Speed 13.72 (lg avg 11.56, +2.16)
creation / Ball Dominance 15.75 (lg avg 13.90, +1.85)
physical / First Step 13.71 (lg avg 11.90, +1.81)
playmaking / Passing 15.33 (lg avg 13.74, +1.60)
execution / Basketball IQ 16.12 (lg avg 14.90, +1.22)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
execution / Isolation Execution 12.66 (lg avg 13.84, -1.18)
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.93 (lg avg 12.52, -0.60)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.70 (lg avg 13.26, -0.56)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.46 (lg avg 12.95, -0.49)
physical / Quickness 12.15 (lg avg 12.55, -0.40)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 12.66 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +1.46
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 12.46 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +2.03
physical / Quickness Opp: 12.15 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +2.21
defense / Stealing Opp: 12.84 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +1.04
physical / Athleticism Opp: 13.09 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +1.74
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (12.5 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.7 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Andre Wright (19.2 PPG, 23.7% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.46 (+2.03)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 12.84 (+1.04)
execution / Isolation Execution Denver 14.12 vs 12.66 (+1.46)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 13.09 (+1.74)
physical / Quickness Denver 14.36 vs 12.15 (+2.21)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 15.75 (-3.64)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 12.41 (-3.51)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.43 (-3.02)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.18 (-2.52)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 15.33 (-2.27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 46-36
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +5.8)
Current Streak: W2
Longest Win Streak: 4
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.7
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.6
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.1 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 54% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 46%, 2PT share 54%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_louisville_colonels.txt
Mexico City Jaguars
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: MEXICO CITY JAGUARS
==========================================================================================
Record: 46-37 (0.554)
Win Rank: 32/36
Offense: 111.5 PPG (rank 31/36)
Defense: 109.1 PPG allowed (rank 11/36)
Pt Diff: +2.4
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mandela Osayande PG 29 4.5 33.4 13.7 3.1 9.0 52.8 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Stephon Hallice C 25 4.0 30.9 6.0 8.5 2.0 61.2 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Kenan Aleksic SF 25 4.5 27.5 14.0 2.7 2.6 60.0 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Gordo Dubar C 24 4.0 19.0 5.7 6.1 0.7 59.4 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Payton Oyediran PG 28 5.0 20.2 12.6 2.8 2.2 58.2 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Robbie Warrington C 20 3.5 17.1 5.1 3.8 0.6 60.0 Post Scorer Mobile Big
Adonis Walters PF 31 4.5 22.3 15.4 3.0 3.7 55.1 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Nico Gillespie SG 30 4.0 13.4 4.2 1.2 3.4 48.9 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Morey Ball (wt avg proficiency: 19.3)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Morey Ball 19.3
Balanced 18.0
Pace & Space 12.9
Post Centric 3.2
Seven Seconds 2.5
Perimeter Centric 2.1
Grit & Grind 1.6
Triangle 0.2
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.50 17.09 +0.40
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.17 14.64 -0.47
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.28 12.92 +1.37
playmaking / Spacing 13.29 11.35 +1.94
playmaking / Passing 13.23 13.74 -0.51
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.18 12.52 -1.35
creation / Self-Creation 16.05 14.61 +1.44
creation / Finishing 16.18 15.14 +1.04
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.21 10.14 +0.07
playmaking / Gravity 11.93 13.67 -1.74
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 52%
Roll : Pop: 53:47
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 63:37
Corner 3 : Above Break: 51:49
Primary Scoring Options:
Cole Kopelani 16.4 PPG USG: 22.4% TS: 64.6% 3P: 46.5%
Adonis Walters 15.4 PPG USG: 28.2% TS: 55.1% 3P: 34.8%
Kenan Aleksic 14.0 PPG USG: 21.8% TS: 60.0% 3P: 38.2%
Scoring Identity: elite PnR execution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 12.67 14.49 -1.82
defense / Off-Ball Defense 15.46 14.00 +1.46
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.06 12.95 +0.10
defense / Rim Protection 10.79 11.26 -0.47
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.32 13.26 -1.94
defense / Post Defense 11.07 11.35 -0.28
defense / Stealing 10.73 13.12 -2.40
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Anchor Big x2
Mobile Big x2
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 109.1 (rank 11/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Stealing 10.73 vs 13.12 lg avg (-2.40)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.32 vs 13.26 lg avg (-1.94)
defense / Help Defense 12.67 vs 14.49 lg avg (-1.82)
defense / Rim Protection 10.79 vs 11.26 lg avg (-0.47)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Strength 15.30 (lg avg 12.24, +3.06)
creation / Ball Dominance 16.27 (lg avg 13.90, +2.37)
execution / Post Execution 10.38 (lg avg 8.35, +2.02)
playmaking / Spacing 13.29 (lg avg 11.35, +1.94)
physical / First Step 13.61 (lg avg 11.90, +1.70)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
defense / Stealing 10.73 (lg avg 13.12, -2.40)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 11.32 (lg avg 13.26, -1.94)
defense / Help Defense 12.67 (lg avg 14.49, -1.82)
playmaking / Gravity 11.93 (lg avg 13.67, -1.74)
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.18 (lg avg 12.52, -1.35)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Stealing Opp: 10.73 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +3.15
physical / Endurance Opp: 10.07 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +2.71
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 10.79 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +1.54
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.8 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (12.7 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (11.3 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.21 (+2.01)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 12.67 (+1.41)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 13.06 (+1.43)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.79 (+1.54)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 10.73 (+3.15)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 10.38 (-4.27)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 16.27 (-4.16)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 12.56 (-3.65)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 16.05 (-2.95)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.18 (-2.52)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 46-36
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +6.3)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.5
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.5
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.3 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (55%) and outside (45%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_mexico_city_jaguars.txt
Miami Cyclones
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: MIAMI CYCLONES
==========================================================================================
Record: 53-30 (0.639)
Win Rank: 8/36
Offense: 112.9 PPG (rank 26/36)
Defense: 107.7 PPG allowed (rank 4/36)
Pt Diff: +5.2
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ervin Rhinehart C 26 4.5 32.0 19.7 6.8 1.4 59.7 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big TOP PPG
Marquese Henshaw C 25 5.0 31.3 12.3 9.0 1.3 64.7 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Anthony Beamer SG 24 4.0 31.1 14.4 2.0 8.1 50.8 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Jalen Humphrey C 29 4.5 29.8 7.5 11.1 1.2 57.9 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Antoine Daniels PF 32 4.5 23.0 15.8 3.6 2.5 56.5 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Reid Callaway SF 23 4.5 22.0 6.5 3.0 3.3 52.1 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Bakari Humphrey PG 30 5.0 27.4 10.8 3.4 5.5 58.3 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Lyles Heimuli SF 20 3.0 17.7 5.8 1.6 2.0 54.1 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Morey Ball 16.0
Pace & Space 11.9
Post Centric 5.1
Perimeter Centric 5.0
Grit & Grind 2.2
Seven Seconds 2.1
Triangle 0.9
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.87 17.09 +0.78
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.33 14.64 -0.31
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 10.35 12.92 -2.57
playmaking / Spacing 11.56 11.35 +0.21
playmaking / Passing 13.32 13.74 -0.42
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.03 12.52 -1.50
creation / Self-Creation 13.65 14.61 -0.96
creation / Finishing 13.66 15.14 -1.48
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.61 10.14 -1.53
playmaking / Gravity 12.98 13.67 -0.69
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 50%
Roll : Pop: 40:60
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 68:32
Corner 3 : Above Break: 62:38
Primary Scoring Options:
Ervin Rhinehart 19.7 PPG USG: 25.8% TS: 59.7% 3P: 44.2%
Antoine Daniels 15.8 PPG USG: 29.5% TS: 56.5% 3P: 37.9%
Anthony Beamer 14.4 PPG USG: 22.8% TS: 50.8% 3P: 30.6%
Scoring Identity: strong inside scoring
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 16.07 14.49 +1.58
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.51 14.00 -1.50
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.75 12.95 -1.20
defense / Rim Protection 13.98 11.26 +2.72
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.75 13.26 -0.51
defense / Post Defense 12.91 11.35 +1.56
defense / Stealing 14.18 13.12 +1.06
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x6
Mobile Big x2
Anchor Big x1
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 107.7 (rank 4/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.51 vs 14.00 lg avg (-1.50)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.75 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.20)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.75 vs 13.26 lg avg (-0.51)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
defense / Rim Protection 13.98 (lg avg 11.26, +2.72)
execution / Post Execution 10.98 (lg avg 8.35, +2.62)
physical / Strength 14.75 (lg avg 12.24, +2.52)
defense / Help Defense 16.07 (lg avg 14.49, +1.58)
defense / Post Defense 12.91 (lg avg 11.35, +1.56)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
physical / First Step 8.23 (lg avg 11.90, -3.67)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 10.35 (lg avg 12.92, -2.57)
physical / Endurance 8.58 (lg avg 11.10, -2.52)
physical / Speed 9.53 (lg avg 11.56, -2.04)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 8.61 (lg avg 10.14, -1.53)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / First Step Opp: 8.23 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +5.49
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 10.35 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +2.92
physical / Endurance Opp: 8.58 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +4.20
physical / Speed Opp: 9.53 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +3.50
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 8.61 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +3.61
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 11.75 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +2.74
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.8 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.7 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Ervin Rhinehart (19.7 PPG, 25.8% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 8.61 (+3.61)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 12.51 (+1.44)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.75 (+2.74)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Denver 13.27 vs 10.35 (+2.92)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 12.67 (+2.16)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 10.98 (-4.87)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.59 (-3.18)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.05 (-2.39)
shooting / Inside Shooting Denver 15.87 vs 17.87 (-1.99)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 16.07 (-1.99)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 52-30
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +6.4)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.0
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +6.0
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (55%) and outside (45%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_miami_cyclones.txt
Minneapolis Blizzards
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: MINNEAPOLIS BLIZZARDS
==========================================================================================
Record: 55-35 (0.611)
Win Rank: 17/36
Offense: 115.5 PPG (rank 10/36)
Defense: 112.7 PPG allowed (rank 30/36)
Pt Diff: +2.8
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tyree Bruner PF 28 5.0 33.3 23.3 4.1 5.8 58.4 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Azar Lawton PG 26 5.0 32.0 15.7 5.3 5.3 56.0 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Jamarcus Payne C 30 4.5 30.5 9.8 10.3 0.8 60.0 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Nyika Nnamoko PG 29 4.5 27.7 12.2 3.4 7.3 58.5 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
JB Winn C 26 4.0 26.2 14.4 6.9 1.1 59.6 Stretch Big Mobile Big
Rubén Serrano PG 18 3.0 20.3 6.7 1.3 4.5 53.0 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Umberto Gigli C 23 3.0 17.6 6.5 4.7 0.6 59.7 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Zach Camara PG 30 4.5 16.6 7.2 1.2 3.5 51.8 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 18.9)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 18.9
Pace & Space 18.6
Morey Ball 15.0
Post Centric 8.7
Grit & Grind 3.5
Seven Seconds 3.0
Perimeter Centric 2.2
Triangle 0.7
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.49 17.09 +0.40
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.52 14.64 -0.12
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.87 12.92 -0.04
playmaking / Spacing 10.95 11.35 -0.41
playmaking / Passing 12.98 13.74 -0.76
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.54 12.52 +0.01
creation / Self-Creation 14.25 14.61 -0.36
creation / Finishing 15.35 15.14 +0.21
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.17 10.14 +0.04
playmaking / Gravity 14.87 13.67 +1.20
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 54%
Roll : Pop: 32:68
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 69:31
Corner 3 : Above Break: 67:33
Primary Scoring Options:
Tyree Bruner 23.3 PPG USG: 29.2% TS: 58.4% 3P: 39.3%
Azar Lawton 15.7 PPG USG: 20.8% TS: 56.0% 3P: 38.2%
JB Winn 14.4 PPG USG: 22.4% TS: 59.6% 3P: 42.1%
Scoring Identity: balanced/average offensive profile
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.96 14.49 -0.53
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.66 14.00 -0.34
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.77 12.95 +0.81
defense / Rim Protection 9.61 11.26 -1.65
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.31 13.26 +0.05
defense / Post Defense 8.83 11.35 -2.52
defense / Stealing 14.20 13.12 +1.08
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Point Of Attack x3
Anchor Big x2
Mobile Big x2
Points Allowed: 112.7 (rank 30/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Post Defense 8.83 vs 11.35 lg avg (-2.52)
defense / Rim Protection 9.61 vs 11.26 lg avg (-1.65)
defense / Help Defense 13.96 vs 14.49 lg avg (-0.53)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.66 vs 14.00 lg avg (-0.34)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Strength 14.30 (lg avg 12.24, +2.06)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 14.34 (lg avg 12.40, +1.94)
playmaking / Gravity 14.87 (lg avg 13.67, +1.20)
defense / Stealing 14.20 (lg avg 13.12, +1.08)
execution / Basketball IQ 15.86 (lg avg 14.90, +0.96)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
defense / Post Defense 8.83 (lg avg 11.35, -2.52)
defense / Rim Protection 9.61 (lg avg 11.26, -1.65)
shooting / Free Throws 13.05 (lg avg 14.67, -1.62)
physical / First Step 10.30 (lg avg 11.90, -1.60)
creation / Foul Drawing 13.40 (lg avg 14.51, -1.11)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Post Defense Opp: 8.83 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +2.62
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 9.61 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +2.71
physical / First Step Opp: 10.30 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +3.42
physical / Athleticism Opp: 12.35 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +2.48
physical / Speed Opp: 10.90 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +2.12
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 10.95 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +1.26
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (9.6 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (14.0 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Tyree Bruner (23.3 PPG, 29.2% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.17 (+2.04)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 8.83 (+2.62)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 9.61 (+2.71)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 12.35 (+2.48)
physical / First Step Denver 13.72 vs 10.30 (+3.42)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 14.34 (-3.68)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 11.75 (-2.85)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.77 (-2.66)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 14.72 (-2.61)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.40 (-1.99)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 50-32
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (avg pt diff: +1.6)
Current Streak: W2
Longest Win Streak: 8
Longest Loss Streak: 5
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +2.8
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +2.9
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 12.9 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 45%, 2PT share 55%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_minneapolis_blizzards.txt
Nashville Stars
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: NASHVILLE STARS
==========================================================================================
Record: 54-29 (0.651)
Win Rank: 6/36
Offense: 108.0 PPG (rank 34/36)
Defense: 102.3 PPG allowed (rank 2/36)
Pt Diff: +5.7
Class: ELITE CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Donte Black C 20 3.0 28.4 9.7 8.7 0.6 59.4 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Cairo Johnson-Brooks PF 21 3.5 26.9 9.4 3.0 1.1 51.3 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Kinard Otero SG 20 3.5 26.6 11.2 2.4 3.3 55.0 Slasher Wing Stopper
Kaan Korkmaz PG 22 3.5 26.7 14.7 2.1 2.5 54.0 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Cameron Hughes PF 30 3.5 19.2 5.6 4.0 1.4 54.6 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Tiago Fernandes PF 23 4.0 23.1 10.6 6.4 0.8 52.1 Versatile Big Mobile Big
KJ Martin C 27 4.5 22.7 12.1 8.9 1.2 63.1 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big BEST CA
Raymone Crockrom C 24 4.0 22.6 8.5 5.9 0.9 56.1 Post Bully Mobile Big
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 15.4)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 15.4
Morey Ball 11.8
Pace & Space 9.5
Post Centric 5.8
Triangle 5.0
Seven Seconds 2.7
Perimeter Centric 2.5
Grit & Grind 1.6
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 15.71 17.09 -1.39
shooting / 3PT Shooting 12.87 14.64 -1.77
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 9.80 12.92 -3.12
playmaking / Spacing 8.79 11.35 -2.57
playmaking / Passing 10.56 13.74 -3.17
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.86 12.52 -1.67
creation / Self-Creation 13.29 14.61 -1.32
creation / Finishing 14.34 15.14 -0.80
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 5.60 10.14 -4.54
playmaking / Gravity 11.14 13.67 -2.53
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 59%
Roll : Pop: 57:43
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 67:33
Corner 3 : Above Break: 61:39
Primary Scoring Options:
Kaan Korkmaz 14.7 PPG USG: 27.6% TS: 54.0% 3P: 32.1%
KJ Martin 12.1 PPG USG: 22.3% TS: 63.1% 3P: 47.5%
Kinard Otero 11.2 PPG USG: 20.4% TS: 55.0% 3P: 33.3%
Scoring Identity: poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.79 14.49 +0.30
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.12 14.00 -1.88
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 10.27 12.95 -2.68
defense / Rim Protection 12.90 11.26 +1.64
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.62 13.26 -0.64
defense / Post Defense 14.44 11.35 +3.09
defense / Stealing 12.15 13.12 -0.98
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Anchor Big x2
Mobile Big x2
Helper x1
Points Allowed: 102.3 (rank 2/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 10.27 vs 12.95 lg avg (-2.68)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.12 vs 14.00 lg avg (-1.88)
defense / Stealing 12.15 vs 13.12 lg avg (-0.98)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.62 vs 13.26 lg avg (-0.64)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
defense / Post Defense 14.44 (lg avg 11.35, +3.09)
defense / Rim Protection 12.90 (lg avg 11.26, +1.64)
defense / Help Defense 14.79 (lg avg 14.49, +0.30)
physical / Athleticism 13.26 (lg avg 13.16, +0.10)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 5.60 (lg avg 10.14, -4.54)
creation / Ball Dominance 10.49 (lg avg 13.90, -3.41)
playmaking / Passing 10.56 (lg avg 13.74, -3.17)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 9.80 (lg avg 12.92, -3.12)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 10.27 (lg avg 12.95, -2.68)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 5.60 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +6.62
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 9.80 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +3.47
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 10.27 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +4.21
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 8.79 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +3.42
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (10.3 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.6 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (12.9 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
4. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (8.8 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 10.49 (+1.62)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 5.60 (+6.62)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 12.12 (+1.82)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 10.27 (+4.21)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 12.15 (+1.73)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 14.44 (-2.99)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.27 (-2.86)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.04 (-1.93)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 10.31 (-1.41)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 53-29
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (avg pt diff: -0.2)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 6
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.7
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.4
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 45%, 2PT share 55%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_nashville_stars.txt
New Orleans Hurricanes
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: NEW ORLEANS HURRICANES
==========================================================================================
Record: 42-42 (0.500)
Win Rank: 34/36
Offense: 111.9 PPG (rank 30/36)
Defense: 111.2 PPG allowed (rank 21/36)
Pt Diff: +0.7
Class: FRINGE PLAYOFF
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patrik Jurecka PF 21 4.5 35.5 21.2 4.9 5.0 58.8 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
B.J. Scocca C 28 5.0 34.5 12.0 10.4 2.4 59.5 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Caius Thompson C 30 4.5 33.0 10.4 12.1 1.6 63.4 Pick-and-Pop Big Anchor Big
Johari Whitaker PG 30 5.0 29.6 21.8 3.8 3.2 58.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Kyler Amundson SF 25 4.5 26.3 10.7 2.6 3.1 52.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Dwight Shope C 20 3.5 25.6 9.1 8.4 0.5 58.6 Post Bully Anchor Big
Darius Blackwell SG 21 4.0 30.3 14.1 2.6 6.2 53.8 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Devin Emery PG 29 4.5 23.6 12.9 1.6 6.6 58.9 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 17.5)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 17.5
Morey Ball 15.0
Pace & Space 10.2
Grit & Grind 8.7
Triangle 5.1
Perimeter Centric 4.6
Post Centric 4.4
Seven Seconds 4.2
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.84 17.09 +0.75
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.77 14.64 +0.13
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.44 12.92 +1.52
playmaking / Spacing 11.36 11.35 +0.01
playmaking / Passing 13.19 13.74 -0.55
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.57 12.52 -0.95
creation / Self-Creation 15.11 14.61 +0.50
creation / Finishing 17.39 15.14 +2.25
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 12.17 10.14 +2.03
playmaking / Gravity 13.95 13.67 +0.28
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 61%
Roll : Pop: 44:56
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 63:37
Corner 3 : Above Break: 60:40
Primary Scoring Options:
Johari Whitaker 21.8 PPG USG: 31.6% TS: 58.6% 3P: 35.3%
Patrik Jurecka 21.2 PPG USG: 25.0% TS: 58.8% 3P: 40.4%
Darius Blackwell 14.1 PPG USG: 21.3% TS: 53.8% 3P: 29.4%
Scoring Identity: strong inside scoring; elite PnR execution; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.21 14.49 +0.71
defense / Off-Ball Defense 11.49 14.00 -2.51
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.12 12.95 -0.83
defense / Rim Protection 12.32 11.26 +1.06
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.03 13.26 -0.23
defense / Post Defense 12.54 11.35 +1.19
defense / Stealing 11.38 13.12 -1.75
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Anchor Big x4
Point Of Attack x2
Chaser x1
Points Allowed: 111.2 (rank 21/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Off-Ball Defense 11.49 vs 14.00 lg avg (-2.51)
defense / Stealing 11.38 vs 13.12 lg avg (-1.75)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.12 vs 12.95 lg avg (-0.83)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
creation / Finishing 17.39 (lg avg 15.14, +2.25)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 12.17 (lg avg 10.14, +2.03)
creation / Ball Dominance 15.87 (lg avg 13.90, +1.97)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.44 (lg avg 12.92, +1.52)
physical / Strength 13.45 (lg avg 12.24, +1.21)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
defense / Off-Ball Defense 11.49 (lg avg 14.00, -2.51)
defense / Stealing 11.38 (lg avg 13.12, -1.75)
playmaking / Playmaking 10.55 (lg avg 11.88, -1.33)
physical / Athleticism 11.84 (lg avg 13.16, -1.32)
physical / First Step 10.86 (lg avg 11.90, -1.04)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Stealing Opp: 11.38 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +2.50
physical / Athleticism Opp: 11.84 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +2.99
physical / First Step Opp: 10.86 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +2.86
physical / Endurance Opp: 10.20 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +2.58
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 12.12 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +2.37
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 13.11 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +1.01
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (12.1 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Johari Whitaker (21.8 PPG, 31.6% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 11.49 (+2.45)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.12 (+2.37)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 11.38 (+2.50)
execution / Isolation Execution Denver 14.12 vs 13.11 (+1.01)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 11.84 (+2.99)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 15.87 (-3.76)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.41 (-3.01)
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 17.39 (-2.86)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.28 (-2.62)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.19 (-2.08)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 41-41
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (avg pt diff: +0.2)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +0.1
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.0
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.4 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 45%, 2PT share 55%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_new_orleans_hurricanes.txt
New York Renegades
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: NEW YORK RENEGADES
==========================================================================================
Record: 50-33 (0.602)
Win Rank: 19/36
Offense: 114.4 PPG (rank 17/36)
Defense: 109.5 PPG allowed (rank 15/36)
Pt Diff: +4.9
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stephan Rayner SF 29 4.5 33.1 28.4 3.7 4.8 58.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Terrance Brown PG 28 4.5 30.1 11.3 3.1 6.4 56.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Khadim Flowers PF 29 5.0 32.7 15.3 3.4 4.9 58.2 Glue Guy Wing Stopper BEST CA
Chase Camby C 20 3.5 23.7 5.6 6.8 0.9 60.2 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Antonio Lopez C 30 4.0 20.1 6.9 6.0 1.5 62.5 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Josiah Peters PG 23 4.0 19.5 15.9 2.6 2.0 60.1 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Jawann Spriggins PF 24 4.0 13.8 6.1 3.3 1.2 64.7 Stretch Big Mobile Big
Jameel Bucklin SF 23 3.0 7.9 2.9 1.1 0.5 48.2 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Morey Ball (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Morey Ball 20.0
Balanced 15.6
Pace & Space 15.0
Perimeter Centric 8.7
Grit & Grind 6.5
Post Centric 6.2
Triangle 3.6
Seven Seconds 2.2
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.82 17.09 +0.73
shooting / 3PT Shooting 15.40 14.64 +0.76
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 11.24 12.92 -1.68
playmaking / Spacing 11.52 11.35 +0.17
playmaking / Passing 14.13 13.74 +0.40
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.19 12.52 +0.66
creation / Self-Creation 15.66 14.61 +1.05
creation / Finishing 17.31 15.14 +2.17
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.75 10.14 +0.62
playmaking / Gravity 12.31 13.67 -1.36
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 57%
Roll : Pop: 40:60
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 69:31
Corner 3 : Above Break: 74:26
Primary Scoring Options:
Stephan Rayner 28.4 PPG USG: 37.0% TS: 58.6% 3P: 34.4%
Josiah Peters 15.9 PPG USG: 33.9% TS: 60.1% 3P: 31.1%
Khadim Flowers 15.3 PPG USG: 20.2% TS: 58.2% 3P: 35.8%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring; drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.86 14.49 -0.63
defense / Off-Ball Defense 15.29 14.00 +1.29
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.61 12.95 +0.66
defense / Rim Protection 11.81 11.26 +0.55
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.08 13.26 -1.18
defense / Post Defense 10.39 11.35 -0.96
defense / Stealing 14.04 13.12 +0.92
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Anchor Big x2
Points Allowed: 109.5 (rank 15/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.08 vs 13.26 lg avg (-1.18)
defense / Post Defense 10.39 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.96)
defense / Help Defense 13.86 vs 14.49 lg avg (-0.63)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
creation / Finishing 17.31 (lg avg 15.14, +2.17)
physical / Quickness 14.07 (lg avg 12.55, +1.52)
physical / Speed 13.05 (lg avg 11.56, +1.49)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 15.29 (lg avg 14.00, +1.29)
creation / Self-Creation 15.66 (lg avg 14.61, +1.05)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 11.24 (lg avg 12.92, -1.68)
playmaking / Gravity 12.31 (lg avg 13.67, -1.36)
physical / Endurance 9.83 (lg avg 11.10, -1.27)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 11.11 (lg avg 12.32, -1.20)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.08 (lg avg 13.26, -1.18)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 11.24 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +2.03
physical / Endurance Opp: 9.83 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +2.94
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 12.72 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +1.39
defense / Post Defense Opp: 10.39 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +1.06
physical / Strength Opp: 11.77 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +2.79
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (13.9 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.1 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (15.4 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
4. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Stephan Rayner (28.4 PPG, 37.0% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.75 (+1.46)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 10.39 (+1.06)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 14.65 (+1.60)
execution / Isolation Execution Denver 14.12 vs 12.72 (+1.39)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Denver 13.27 vs 11.24 (+2.03)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.27 (-3.86)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.93 (-2.82)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 11.69 (-2.78)
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 17.31 (-2.78)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 15.66 (-2.56)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 50-32
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +6.4)
Current Streak: W4
Longest Win Streak: 9
Longest Loss Streak: 5
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +2.7
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +7.3
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 30.8/g (league avg 29.3)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 54% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 46%, 2PT share 54%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Challenge Every Shot and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_new_york_renegades.txt
Oakland Tritons
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: OAKLAND TRITONS
==========================================================================================
Record: 48-35 (0.578)
Win Rank: 26/36
Offense: 122.2 PPG (rank 1/36)
Defense: 118.0 PPG allowed (rank 36/36)
Pt Diff: +4.2
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anvar Makiev PG 21 3.5 33.2 11.3 5.4 6.3 54.5 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper
Daevon Nash SG 23 5.0 31.7 13.7 4.6 4.2 55.7 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Vasja Delimont PF 20 3.0 32.0 11.0 5.4 3.5 54.7 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
Landon Battier C 24 5.0 29.8 11.7 9.5 1.2 57.1 Post Scorer Anchor Big
DuJuan Pappas C 20 3.5 30.0 12.2 8.8 3.2 55.4 Interior Playmaker Anchor Big
Evan Lucarotti C 20 3.0 31.7 12.4 7.7 2.1 58.6 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Jarvis Cannon PF 27 5.0 24.2 16.7 5.9 0.8 59.8 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Marcus Pendleton SG 21 3.0 33.0 23.4 1.9 6.5 57.2 Secondary Creator Chaser TOP PPG
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 17.3)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 17.3
Morey Ball 10.1
Pace & Space 8.1
Seven Seconds 5.9
Grit & Grind 3.9
Post Centric 3.0
Perimeter Centric 2.5
Triangle 1.5
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 15.52 17.09 -1.57
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.71 14.64 -0.93
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.24 12.92 -0.67
playmaking / Spacing 11.65 11.35 +0.30
playmaking / Passing 13.45 13.74 -0.29
playmaking / Ball Handling 9.79 12.52 -2.73
creation / Self-Creation 12.84 14.61 -1.77
creation / Finishing 11.64 15.14 -3.50
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 7.00 10.14 -3.14
playmaking / Gravity 13.73 13.67 +0.06
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 45%
Roll : Pop: 34:66
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 78:22
Corner 3 : Above Break: 72:28
Primary Scoring Options:
Marcus Pendleton 23.4 PPG USG: 29.4% TS: 57.2% 3P: 34.1%
Jarvis Cannon 16.7 PPG USG: 27.7% TS: 59.8% 3P: 39.4%
Daevon Nash 13.7 PPG USG: 19.1% TS: 55.7% 3P: 35.0%
Scoring Identity: balanced/average offensive profile
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.51 14.49 +1.02
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.29 14.00 -1.71
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.62 12.95 -1.33
defense / Rim Protection 12.41 11.26 +1.15
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.56 13.26 +1.30
defense / Post Defense 12.80 11.35 +1.46
defense / Stealing 10.92 13.12 -2.20
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Anchor Big x2
Mobile Big x2
Chaser x1
Points Allowed: 118.0 (rank 36/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Stealing 10.92 vs 13.12 lg avg (-2.20)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.29 vs 14.00 lg avg (-1.71)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.62 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.33)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
defense / Post Defense 12.80 (lg avg 11.35, +1.46)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.56 (lg avg 13.26, +1.30)
defense / Rim Protection 12.41 (lg avg 11.26, +1.15)
defense / Help Defense 15.51 (lg avg 14.49, +1.02)
physical / Strength 12.90 (lg avg 12.24, +0.66)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
creation / Finishing 11.64 (lg avg 15.14, -3.50)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 7.00 (lg avg 10.14, -3.14)
playmaking / Ball Handling 9.79 (lg avg 12.52, -2.73)
defense / Stealing 10.92 (lg avg 13.12, -2.20)
physical / First Step 9.96 (lg avg 11.90, -1.94)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 7.00 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +5.22
defense / Stealing Opp: 10.92 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +2.96
physical / First Step Opp: 9.96 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +3.76
physical / Endurance Opp: 9.48 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +3.30
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.6 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (13.7 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Marcus Pendleton (23.4 PPG, 29.4% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 11.64 (+2.89)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 7.00 (+5.22)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 12.29 (+1.65)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.62 (+2.86)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 10.92 (+2.96)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.75 (-2.65)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.02 (-2.36)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.56 (-2.16)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 10.90 (-2.00)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding Denver 12.76 vs 14.56 (-1.80)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 47-35
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (avg pt diff: +6.6)
Current Streak: L1
Longest Win Streak: 8
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.0
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.0
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 53% (league avg 50%)
2. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 12.2 (league avg 12.0)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Defensive Communication as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_oakland_tritons.txt
Oklahoma City Barons
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: OKLAHOMA CITY BARONS
==========================================================================================
Record: 50-40 (0.556)
Win Rank: 30/36
Offense: 113.8 PPG (rank 20/36)
Defense: 112.1 PPG allowed (rank 24/36)
Pt Diff: +1.7
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jaleel Usher SG 32 4.0 31.8 16.1 4.2 4.4 61.4 Secondary Creator Chaser
Marco De Luca PF 32 4.5 31.3 22.0 3.5 6.2 60.4 Shot Creator Point Of Attack TOP PPG
Evan Lieberman PF 30 5.0 31.4 11.3 5.9 4.2 61.6 Shot Creator Wing Stopper
Veljko Pavlovic C 28 5.0 33.1 20.4 12.9 3.7 70.7 Interior Playmaker Anchor Big BEST CA
Carsen Christos SF 25 4.0 22.1 10.5 2.8 2.4 63.5 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Emery Hathaway PF 25 4.0 17.9 7.7 2.4 1.4 54.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Leon Hawthorne PF 30 5.0 34.0 15.4 4.6 6.2 60.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Kurt Temple C 33 4.0 17.0 6.3 4.5 1.3 58.0 Post Scorer Helper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Morey Ball 15.4
Pace & Space 13.9
Grit & Grind 6.7
Seven Seconds 4.6
Post Centric 2.5
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Triangle 0.5
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.94 17.09 +0.85
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.01 14.64 +1.37
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.49 12.92 +1.57
playmaking / Spacing 11.75 11.35 +0.40
playmaking / Passing 16.63 13.74 +2.89
playmaking / Ball Handling 14.20 12.52 +1.68
creation / Self-Creation 15.00 14.61 +0.39
creation / Finishing 15.65 15.14 +0.51
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 14.01 10.14 +3.88
playmaking / Gravity 15.79 13.67 +2.12
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 46%
Roll : Pop: 37:63
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 59:41
Corner 3 : Above Break: 50:50
Primary Scoring Options:
Marco De Luca 22.0 PPG USG: 28.6% TS: 60.4% 3P: 41.1%
Veljko Pavlovic 20.4 PPG USG: 21.6% TS: 70.7% 3P: 50.3%
Jaleel Usher 16.1 PPG USG: 20.9% TS: 61.4% 3P: 42.5%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring; elite PnR execution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.34 14.49 +0.85
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.53 14.00 +0.53
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.73 12.95 +0.78
defense / Rim Protection 10.27 11.26 -0.99
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.57 13.26 +0.31
defense / Post Defense 10.99 11.35 -0.36
defense / Stealing 12.18 13.12 -0.94
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x5
Anchor Big x2
Point Of Attack x2
Chaser x1
Helper x1
Points Allowed: 112.1 (rank 24/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Rim Protection 10.27 vs 11.26 lg avg (-0.99)
defense / Stealing 12.18 vs 13.12 lg avg (-0.94)
defense / Post Defense 10.99 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.36)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 14.01 (lg avg 10.14, +3.88)
playmaking / Playmaking 15.35 (lg avg 11.88, +3.47)
playmaking / Passing 16.63 (lg avg 13.74, +2.89)
creation / Ball Dominance 16.05 (lg avg 13.90, +2.15)
physical / Endurance 13.24 (lg avg 11.10, +2.14)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
physical / Quickness 11.02 (lg avg 12.55, -1.53)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 10.85 (lg avg 12.32, -1.47)
physical / Athleticism 11.80 (lg avg 13.16, -1.37)
execution / Post Execution 7.20 (lg avg 8.35, -1.15)
defense / Rim Protection 10.27 (lg avg 11.26, -0.99)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Quickness Opp: 11.02 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +3.34
physical / Athleticism Opp: 11.80 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +3.03
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 10.27 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +2.06
physical / Speed Opp: 10.59 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +2.43
defense / Stealing Opp: 12.18 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +1.70
physical / Strength Opp: 11.31 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +3.25
physical / First Step Opp: 11.15 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +2.57
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.3 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (16.0 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Marco De Luca (22.0 PPG, 28.6% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.27 (+2.06)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 12.18 (+1.70)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 11.80 (+3.03)
physical / First Step Denver 13.72 vs 11.15 (+2.57)
physical / Quickness Denver 14.36 vs 11.02 (+3.34)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 15.35 (-6.45)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 16.05 (-3.94)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 16.63 (-3.56)
playmaking / Gravity Denver 12.90 vs 15.79 (-2.89)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.77 (-2.36)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 45-37
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (avg pt diff: -1.1)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 6
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.3
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: -0.4
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.5 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 32.0/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_oklahoma_city_barons.txt
Philadelphia Warriors
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: PHILADELPHIA WARRIORS
==========================================================================================
Record: 50-40 (0.556)
Win Rank: 30/36
Offense: 114.1 PPG (rank 19/36)
Defense: 112.3 PPG allowed (rank 25/36)
Pt Diff: +1.8
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CJ LaCruz PG 24 4.5 34.4 27.1 4.6 8.2 58.0 Shot Creator Point Of Attack TOP PPG
Zion Buckner C 32 4.5 31.4 17.4 5.7 1.7 61.2 Post Bully Wing Stopper
Xavier Lowe PG 27 4.5 30.1 15.8 3.6 3.0 59.4 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
Tre Braun PF 30 5.0 24.3 10.4 4.4 4.0 54.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Emanuel Autry PG 28 4.5 20.3 7.6 2.8 6.5 61.8 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Brandon Leslie C 29 4.0 17.3 5.3 6.0 0.8 61.8 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Devon Walton C 26 4.5 16.0 3.7 4.1 0.5 61.4 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Neiman Imegwu C 27 4.0 15.3 7.8 4.9 0.7 61.5 Post Scorer Mobile Big
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Pace & Space 20.0
Morey Ball 8.1
Seven Seconds 4.7
Post Centric 4.3
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Grit & Grind 1.0
Triangle 0.0
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.09 17.09 -0.00
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.73 14.64 -0.91
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.92 12.92 +2.00
playmaking / Spacing 9.58 11.35 -1.77
playmaking / Passing 11.76 13.74 -1.98
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.94 12.52 +1.41
creation / Self-Creation 15.55 14.61 +0.94
creation / Finishing 17.32 15.14 +2.18
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 11.64 10.14 +1.50
playmaking / Gravity 11.98 13.67 -1.69
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 69%
Roll : Pop: 48:52
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 71:29
Corner 3 : Above Break: 62:38
Primary Scoring Options:
CJ LaCruz 27.1 PPG USG: 33.0% TS: 58.0% 3P: 31.9%
Zion Buckner 17.4 PPG USG: 22.1% TS: 61.2% 3P: 36.9%
Xavier Lowe 15.8 PPG USG: 21.2% TS: 59.4% 3P: 37.0%
Scoring Identity: elite PnR execution; poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 16.13 14.49 +1.64
defense / Off-Ball Defense 15.38 14.00 +1.38
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14.74 12.95 +1.78
defense / Rim Protection 11.14 11.26 -0.12
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 14.79 13.26 +1.53
defense / Post Defense 11.11 11.35 -0.24
defense / Stealing 15.05 13.12 +1.93
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Point Of Attack x2
Mobile Big x2
Anchor Big x1
Points Allowed: 112.3 (rank 25/36)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Strength 14.75 (lg avg 12.24, +2.51)
creation / Finishing 17.32 (lg avg 15.14, +2.18)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.92 (lg avg 12.92, +2.00)
defense / Stealing 15.05 (lg avg 13.12, +1.93)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14.74 (lg avg 12.95, +1.78)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
playmaking / Passing 11.76 (lg avg 13.74, -1.98)
playmaking / Spacing 9.58 (lg avg 11.35, -1.77)
playmaking / Gravity 11.98 (lg avg 13.67, -1.69)
execution / Basketball IQ 13.74 (lg avg 14.90, -1.15)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 13.73 (lg avg 14.64, -0.91)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 9.58 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +2.63
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 13.74 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +2.51
physical / Speed Opp: 11.30 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +1.73
defense / Post Defense Opp: 11.11 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +0.34
physical / First Step Opp: 11.73 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +1.99
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 11.14 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +1.18
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (13.7 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
2. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (9.6 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain CJ LaCruz (27.1 PPG, 33.0% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 11.14 (+1.18)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 13.74 (+2.51)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 13.38 (+1.45)
physical / Endurance Denver 12.77 vs 11.09 (+1.69)
physical / First Step Denver 13.72 vs 11.73 (+1.99)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.59 (-4.18)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.96 (-3.85)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 12.75 (-3.85)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 15.01 (-2.90)
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 17.32 (-2.79)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 45-37
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (avg pt diff: +15.2)
Current Streak: W4
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: -1.9
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.7
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.9 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (55%) and outside (45%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_philadelphia_warriors.txt
Phoenix Vultures
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: PHOENIX VULTURES
==========================================================================================
Record: 50-33 (0.602)
Win Rank: 19/36
Offense: 112.0 PPG (rank 29/36)
Defense: 108.6 PPG allowed (rank 6/36)
Pt Diff: +3.4
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jordan Kolaxis PF 30 4.5 31.2 16.6 6.7 1.8 58.3 Glue Guy Helper
Cole Starkweather SF 23 4.0 25.8 12.0 3.0 3.4 54.5 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Kade Underwood PF 21 4.0 25.4 15.1 3.2 1.5 60.5 Shot Creator Wing Stopper
Demitrius Waltz C 23 4.5 25.5 13.3 8.9 0.8 60.7 Post Scorer Anchor Big
DJ McCants PG 24 5.0 25.1 21.5 4.8 3.1 57.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Daniel Cazorla PG 18 2.5 22.3 5.0 1.7 5.2 58.4 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Dejon Wright C 27 4.0 22.0 8.0 7.6 0.8 61.6 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Petar Jovanovic PF 20 3.0 21.2 8.4 4.8 1.4 56.4 Pick-and-Pop Big Mobile Big
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Morey Ball (wt avg proficiency: 18.6)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Morey Ball 18.6
Pace & Space 14.7
Balanced 13.5
Seven Seconds 3.0
Perimeter Centric 2.3
Post Centric 2.0
Triangle 1.6
Grit & Grind 1.2
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.26 17.09 -0.83
shooting / 3PT Shooting 12.81 14.64 -1.83
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 11.44 12.92 -1.47
playmaking / Spacing 8.50 11.35 -2.85
playmaking / Passing 14.63 13.74 +0.89
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.94 12.52 -0.59
creation / Self-Creation 13.23 14.61 -1.38
creation / Finishing 16.25 15.14 +1.11
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.80 10.14 +0.66
playmaking / Gravity 14.89 13.67 +1.22
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 39%
Roll : Pop: 31:69
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 61:39
Corner 3 : Above Break: 59:41
Primary Scoring Options:
DJ McCants 21.5 PPG USG: 37.5% TS: 57.9% 3P: 35.1%
Jordan Kolaxis 16.6 PPG USG: 21.9% TS: 58.3% 3P: 37.3%
Kade Underwood 15.1 PPG USG: 24.5% TS: 60.5% 3P: 34.2%
Scoring Identity: poor spacing (exploitable)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.59 14.49 -0.90
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.76 14.00 -0.25
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.22 12.95 +0.26
defense / Rim Protection 11.39 11.26 +0.13
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.48 13.26 +0.22
defense / Post Defense 12.20 11.35 +0.85
defense / Stealing 14.08 13.12 +0.96
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Point Of Attack x3
Anchor Big x2
Helper x1
Mobile Big x1
Points Allowed: 108.6 (rank 6/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Help Defense 13.59 vs 14.49 lg avg (-0.90)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Gravity 14.89 (lg avg 13.67, +1.22)
creation / Finishing 16.25 (lg avg 15.14, +1.11)
defense / Stealing 14.08 (lg avg 13.12, +0.96)
playmaking / Passing 14.63 (lg avg 13.74, +0.89)
defense / Post Defense 12.20 (lg avg 11.35, +0.85)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
playmaking / Spacing 8.50 (lg avg 11.35, -2.85)
execution / Basketball IQ 12.62 (lg avg 14.90, -2.27)
physical / Strength 10.38 (lg avg 12.24, -1.86)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 12.81 (lg avg 14.64, -1.83)
playmaking / Playmaking 10.21 (lg avg 11.88, -1.68)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 8.50 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +3.70
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 12.62 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +3.63
physical / Strength Opp: 10.38 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +4.18
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 11.44 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +1.83
physical / Speed Opp: 10.50 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +2.52
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (13.6 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
2. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (12.8 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
3. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (8.5 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
4. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain DJ McCants (21.5 PPG, 37.5% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.80 (+1.42)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 13.22 (+1.27)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 12.62 (+3.63)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Denver 13.27 vs 11.44 (+1.83)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 13.73 (+1.10)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.84 (-3.44)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.19 (-2.53)
playmaking / Gravity Denver 12.90 vs 14.89 (-1.99)
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 16.25 (-1.72)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 14.63 (-1.57)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 49-33
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +8.3)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Loss Streak: 5
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.1
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.3
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 56% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (56%) and outside (44%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_phoenix_vultures.txt
Pittsburgh Vipers
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: PITTSBURGH VIPERS
==========================================================================================
Record: 41-42 (0.494)
Win Rank: 35/36
Offense: 112.9 PPG (rank 26/36)
Defense: 112.5 PPG allowed (rank 27/36)
Pt Diff: +0.4
Class: FRINGE PLAYOFF
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brandon Arenas PG 20 3.5 34.3 25.9 4.0 6.0 58.7 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Uzoma Bonsu C 20 2.5 34.0 15.6 10.4 1.3 59.7 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Brodrick White PF 22 4.0 33.0 10.2 3.8 3.0 51.6 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
Emeka Nyambi C 33 3.5 30.3 15.7 11.3 1.2 62.7 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Mustapha Efianayi SF 30 4.5 26.7 16.8 4.6 3.9 55.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Lance Jacobsen SF 30 4.0 15.6 5.1 2.1 2.7 55.8 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Cole Blake PF 28 3.0 16.1 5.4 2.8 1.1 59.5 Glue Guy Helper
Horace Hammer C 22 4.5 27.8 8.6 7.1 2.9 54.7 Post Bully Mobile Big BEST CA
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 18.5)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 18.5
Morey Ball 12.2
Pace & Space 11.4
Grit & Grind 7.1
Perimeter Centric 3.5
Seven Seconds 2.5
Post Centric 2.3
Triangle 2.3
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.51 17.09 -0.58
shooting / 3PT Shooting 12.40 14.64 -2.24
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 9.90 12.92 -3.02
playmaking / Spacing 8.07 11.35 -3.28
playmaking / Passing 13.00 13.74 -0.74
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.38 12.52 -1.15
creation / Self-Creation 11.95 14.61 -2.66
creation / Finishing 13.14 15.14 -2.00
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.45 10.14 -0.68
playmaking / Gravity 11.83 13.67 -1.84
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 68%
Roll : Pop: 48:52
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 79:21
Corner 3 : Above Break: 66:34
Primary Scoring Options:
Brandon Arenas 25.9 PPG USG: 32.7% TS: 58.7% 3P: 35.0%
Mustapha Efianayi 16.8 PPG USG: 27.2% TS: 55.9% 3P: 35.8%
Emeka Nyambi 15.7 PPG USG: 20.3% TS: 62.7% 3P: 0.0%
Scoring Identity: poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.01 14.49 -0.48
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.80 14.00 -0.20
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.62 12.95 -0.34
defense / Rim Protection 12.17 11.26 +0.91
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.60 13.26 +0.34
defense / Post Defense 12.30 11.35 +0.95
defense / Stealing 13.56 13.12 +0.43
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x4
Anchor Big x2
Mobile Big x1
Helper x1
Points Allowed: 112.5 (rank 27/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Help Defense 14.01 vs 14.49 lg avg (-0.48)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.62 vs 12.95 lg avg (-0.34)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Strength 14.21 (lg avg 12.24, +1.97)
creation / Foul Drawing 15.98 (lg avg 14.51, +1.47)
defense / Post Defense 12.30 (lg avg 11.35, +0.95)
defense / Rim Protection 12.17 (lg avg 11.26, +0.91)
execution / Basketball IQ 15.65 (lg avg 14.90, +0.75)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
playmaking / Playmaking 8.41 (lg avg 11.88, -3.47)
playmaking / Spacing 8.07 (lg avg 11.35, -3.28)
creation / Ball Dominance 10.64 (lg avg 13.90, -3.26)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 9.90 (lg avg 12.92, -3.02)
creation / Self-Creation 11.95 (lg avg 14.61, -2.66)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 8.07 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +4.13
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 9.90 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +3.37
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 11.63 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +2.49
physical / Speed Opp: 9.77 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +3.26
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (14.0 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
2. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (12.6 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
3. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (12.4 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
4. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (8.1 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
5. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Brandon Arenas (25.9 PPG, 32.7% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 10.64 (+1.47)
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 13.14 (+1.39)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 11.95 (+1.15)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.45 (+2.76)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.62 (+1.87)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 15.98 (-4.57)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 7.69 (-1.59)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding Denver 11.29 vs 12.68 (-1.39)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 40-42
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (avg pt diff: +3.8)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 7
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +0.3
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: -0.2
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 57% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (57%) and outside (43%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_pittsburgh_vipers.txt
Portland Lumberjacks
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: PORTLAND LUMBERJACKS
==========================================================================================
Record: 56-33 (0.629)
Win Rank: 9/36
Offense: 114.9 PPG (rank 14/36)
Defense: 110.7 PPG allowed (rank 19/36)
Pt Diff: +4.2
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kylan Cassier PF 22 4.5 31.8 23.6 3.0 5.4 60.5 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Cayden Ward PG 24 4.5 31.3 15.7 3.0 8.2 54.3 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Demitrius Burns C 28 4.5 29.8 10.0 10.3 1.0 64.8 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Jimmie Hollimon PF 30 5.0 30.1 13.1 5.3 3.5 56.1 Stationary Shooter Wing Stopper BEST CA
Jaleel Stripling C 21 3.5 21.2 9.1 6.0 1.1 53.7 Versatile Big Anchor Big
Isaac Lopez C 23 4.0 19.8 10.4 4.6 0.6 64.8 Post Scorer Mobile Big
Mitch Tavares PF 24 4.0 16.2 5.1 2.1 2.1 59.1 Shot Creator Helper
Bryce McAlister PG 26 4.0 16.0 6.3 1.1 4.0 60.3 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Pace & Space 18.6
Morey Ball 5.3
Post Centric 3.6
Seven Seconds 2.7
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Grit & Grind 1.7
Triangle 0.1
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.66 17.09 +0.57
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.44 14.64 -0.20
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.44 12.92 +0.52
playmaking / Spacing 12.86 11.35 +1.51
playmaking / Passing 15.36 13.74 +1.62
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.32 12.52 +0.80
creation / Self-Creation 15.62 14.61 +1.01
creation / Finishing 15.10 15.14 -0.04
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.28 10.14 +0.14
playmaking / Gravity 14.24 13.67 +0.58
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 37%
Roll : Pop: 46:54
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 67:33
Corner 3 : Above Break: 65:35
Primary Scoring Options:
Kylan Cassier 23.6 PPG USG: 29.9% TS: 60.5% 3P: 41.4%
Jaaron Hyde 19.0 PPG USG: 26.1% TS: 56.9% 3P: 37.6%
Cayden Ward 15.7 PPG USG: 22.8% TS: 54.3% 3P: 36.2%
Scoring Identity: strong inside scoring; elite PnR execution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.16 14.49 +0.67
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.40 14.00 -1.61
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.14 12.95 +0.18
defense / Rim Protection 8.52 11.26 -2.74
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 10.76 13.26 -2.50
defense / Post Defense 10.80 11.35 -0.55
defense / Stealing 13.75 13.12 +0.62
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Point Of Attack x3
Wing Stopper x2
Anchor Big x2
Mobile Big x1
Helper x1
Points Allowed: 110.7 (rank 19/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Rim Protection 8.52 vs 11.26 lg avg (-2.74)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 10.76 vs 13.26 lg avg (-2.50)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.40 vs 14.00 lg avg (-1.61)
defense / Post Defense 10.80 vs 11.35 lg avg (-0.55)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Playmaking 13.84 (lg avg 11.88, +1.96)
playmaking / Passing 15.36 (lg avg 13.74, +1.62)
physical / Speed 13.19 (lg avg 11.56, +1.62)
playmaking / Spacing 12.86 (lg avg 11.35, +1.51)
creation / Self-Creation 15.62 (lg avg 14.61, +1.01)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
physical / Strength 9.13 (lg avg 12.24, -3.11)
defense / Rim Protection 8.52 (lg avg 11.26, -2.74)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 10.76 (lg avg 13.26, -2.50)
physical / Athleticism 10.82 (lg avg 13.16, -2.35)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 12.40 (lg avg 14.00, -1.61)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Strength Opp: 9.13 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +5.43
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 8.52 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +3.80
physical / Athleticism Opp: 10.82 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +4.01
physical / First Step Opp: 10.80 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +2.92
defense / Post Defense Opp: 10.80 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +0.65
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 14.51 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +1.74
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (8.5 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (10.8 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Kylan Cassier (23.6 PPG, 29.9% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.28 (+1.94)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 12.40 (+1.55)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 13.14 (+1.35)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 8.52 (+3.80)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 14.51 (+1.74)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 13.84 (-4.94)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 15.62 (-2.53)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.90 (-2.50)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 15.36 (-2.29)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 12.82 (-2.16)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 50-32
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +5.9)
Current Streak: W2
Longest Win Streak: 6
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.0
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +6.7
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.4 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (55%) and outside (45%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_portland_lumberjacks.txt
Salt Lake City Saints
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: SALT LAKE CITY SAINTS
==========================================================================================
Record: 51-32 (0.614)
Win Rank: 14/36
Offense: 116.5 PPG (rank 4/36)
Defense: 113.1 PPG allowed (rank 34/36)
Pt Diff: +3.4
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kahlil Justice SF 21 4.5 33.7 20.4 3.4 5.4 57.2 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Deleon Council PF 23 4.5 27.5 14.2 4.6 1.7 58.8 Glue Guy Helper
Tafari Stephens C 23 4.5 24.1 7.1 8.9 1.2 61.9 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Quinn Alston PF 31 5.0 26.6 19.6 2.1 3.8 65.2 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Chavis Weddle SG 26 4.0 13.8 6.6 2.0 1.9 65.9 Secondary Creator Chaser
Fabio Tinto PG 21 3.5 19.6 6.7 1.8 2.9 51.0 Secondary Creator Point Of Attack
Vonzell Collier C 23 4.0 13.0 5.6 3.8 0.6 61.2 Post Scorer Helper
Houston Chong-Qui PF 26 4.0 7.5 3.9 2.0 0.6 61.8 Stretch Big Helper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 19.9)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 19.9
Pace & Space 13.4
Morey Ball 6.5
Triangle 4.3
Seven Seconds 2.1
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Post Centric 1.4
Grit & Grind 1.0
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 15.83 17.09 -1.26
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.15 14.64 -0.48
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.74 12.92 -0.17
playmaking / Spacing 11.97 11.35 +0.62
playmaking / Passing 13.99 13.74 +0.25
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.30 12.52 -1.23
creation / Self-Creation 14.42 14.61 -0.19
creation / Finishing 16.18 15.14 +1.04
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.48 10.14 -0.66
playmaking / Gravity 16.42 13.67 +2.75
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 61%
Roll : Pop: 32:68
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 66:34
Corner 3 : Above Break: 63:37
Primary Scoring Options:
Kahlil Justice 20.4 PPG USG: 25.9% TS: 57.2% 3P: 35.9%
Quinn Alston 19.6 PPG USG: 24.5% TS: 65.2% 3P: 48.3%
Deleon Council 14.2 PPG USG: 21.7% TS: 58.8% 3P: 39.0%
Scoring Identity: drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 14.39 14.49 -0.10
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.00 14.00 +0.00
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13.27 12.95 +0.32
defense / Rim Protection 10.47 11.26 -0.79
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 10.71 13.26 -2.55
defense / Post Defense 11.25 11.35 -0.09
defense / Stealing 11.34 13.12 -1.78
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x2
Helper x1
Anchor Big x1
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 113.1 (rank 34/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 10.71 vs 13.26 lg avg (-2.55)
defense / Stealing 11.34 vs 13.12 lg avg (-1.78)
defense / Rim Protection 10.47 vs 11.26 lg avg (-0.79)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Gravity 16.42 (lg avg 13.67, +2.75)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 14.40 (lg avg 12.40, +2.00)
creation / Foul Drawing 16.41 (lg avg 14.51, +1.90)
physical / Strength 13.90 (lg avg 12.24, +1.66)
creation / Finishing 16.18 (lg avg 15.14, +1.04)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 10.71 (lg avg 13.26, -2.55)
defense / Stealing 11.34 (lg avg 13.12, -1.78)
shooting / Inside Shooting 15.83 (lg avg 17.09, -1.26)
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.30 (lg avg 12.52, -1.23)
physical / Endurance 10.06 (lg avg 11.10, -1.05)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Stealing Opp: 11.34 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +2.54
physical / Endurance Opp: 10.06 Denver: 12.77 Edge: +2.72
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 13.88 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +2.38
physical / Athleticism Opp: 12.21 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +2.62
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 10.47 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +1.85
physical / Quickness Opp: 11.79 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +2.57
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.5 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (10.7 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
3. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Kahlil Justice (20.4 PPG, 25.9% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.48 (+2.74)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 13.27 (+1.22)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.47 (+1.85)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 11.34 (+2.54)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 13.88 (+2.38)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 16.41 (-5.00)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 14.40 (-3.74)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 12.56 (-3.65)
playmaking / Gravity Denver 12.90 vs 16.42 (-3.52)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 14.93 (-2.82)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 50-32
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (avg pt diff: +1.4)
Current Streak: W1
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 5
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.4
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +2.1
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 12.7 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 53% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_salt_lake_city_saints.txt
San Diego Calaveras
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: SAN DIEGO CALAVERAS
==========================================================================================
Record: 51-32 (0.614)
Win Rank: 14/36
Offense: 116.2 PPG (rank 5/36)
Defense: 111.8 PPG allowed (rank 22/36)
Pt Diff: +4.4
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Óscar Salvatierra PF 19 3.0 32.9 10.2 4.0 8.0 51.2 Secondary Creator Point Of Attack
Zavyean Murray SF 20 3.5 30.3 15.2 3.1 2.0 52.7 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Evan McGowan C 20 4.5 30.0 11.4 10.5 4.2 50.9 Post Scorer Anchor Big BEST CA
Markelle Clarke C 20 3.5 24.1 7.8 5.5 1.1 58.7 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Jamaine Curry Jr SF 25 4.5 31.4 17.6 4.7 3.9 54.6 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Kealen Beitinger PG 23 3.5 16.0 5.9 1.7 4.1 47.2 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Zack LaSalle PF 26 3.5 15.4 4.8 5.8 1.2 59.1 Pick-and-Pop Big Mobile Big
Langston Baker C 23 4.0 13.9 4.6 3.8 0.9 61.0 Post Bully Helper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Pace & Space (wt avg proficiency: 17.5)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Pace & Space 17.5
Balanced 14.6
Morey Ball 6.6
Seven Seconds 3.9
Perimeter Centric 3.1
Post Centric 2.4
Grit & Grind 2.0
Triangle 1.6
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 14.62 17.09 -2.47
shooting / 3PT Shooting 12.07 14.64 -2.57
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 11.72 12.92 -1.20
playmaking / Spacing 11.00 11.35 -0.36
playmaking / Passing 13.04 13.74 -0.69
playmaking / Ball Handling 10.80 12.52 -1.72
creation / Self-Creation 14.67 14.61 +0.06
creation / Finishing 14.31 15.14 -0.83
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.34 10.14 -0.80
playmaking / Gravity 14.50 13.67 +0.83
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 73%
Roll : Pop: 47:53
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 66:34
Corner 3 : Above Break: 62:38
Primary Scoring Options:
Jamaine Curry Jr 17.6 PPG USG: 24.4% TS: 54.6% 3P: 29.7%
Zavyean Murray 15.2 PPG USG: 23.2% TS: 52.7% 3P: 29.2%
Evan McGowan 11.4 PPG USG: 18.2% TS: 50.9% 3P: 0.0%
Scoring Identity: drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.37 14.49 -1.12
defense / Off-Ball Defense 11.90 14.00 -2.10
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 10.76 12.95 -2.19
defense / Rim Protection 10.07 11.26 -1.19
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.02 13.26 -0.24
defense / Post Defense 9.54 11.35 -1.81
defense / Stealing 12.61 13.12 -0.52
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x2
Mobile Big x2
Point Of Attack x2
Anchor Big x1
Points Allowed: 111.8 (rank 22/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 10.76 vs 12.95 lg avg (-2.19)
defense / Off-Ball Defense 11.90 vs 14.00 lg avg (-2.10)
defense / Post Defense 9.54 vs 11.35 lg avg (-1.81)
defense / Rim Protection 10.07 vs 11.26 lg avg (-1.19)
defense / Help Defense 13.37 vs 14.49 lg avg (-1.12)
defense / Stealing 12.61 vs 13.12 lg avg (-0.52)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
playmaking / Playmaking 13.08 (lg avg 11.88, +1.20)
playmaking / Gravity 14.50 (lg avg 13.67, +0.83)
physical / Quickness 12.83 (lg avg 12.55, +0.29)
physical / Speed 11.74 (lg avg 11.56, +0.17)
creation / Self-Creation 14.67 (lg avg 14.61, +0.06)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
execution / Isolation Execution 10.50 (lg avg 13.84, -3.35)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 12.07 (lg avg 14.64, -2.57)
shooting / Inside Shooting 14.62 (lg avg 17.09, -2.47)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 9.85 (lg avg 12.32, -2.47)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 10.76 (lg avg 12.95, -2.19)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 10.50 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +3.62
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 10.76 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +3.73
defense / Post Defense Opp: 9.54 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +1.91
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 13.36 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +2.89
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (10.1 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (13.4 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (10.8 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
4. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (12.1 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.34 (+2.88)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 11.90 (+2.04)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 10.76 (+3.73)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 9.54 (+1.91)
defense / Rim Protection Denver 12.32 vs 10.07 (+2.25)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 13.08 (-4.18)
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 13.76 (-2.35)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.06 (-1.95)
playmaking / Gravity Denver 12.90 vs 14.50 (-1.60)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 14.67 (-1.58)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 51-31
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +6.7)
Current Streak: W2
Longest Win Streak: 6
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.0
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.1
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 45%, 2PT share 55%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_san_diego_calaveras.txt
Seattle Thunder
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: SEATTLE THUNDER
==========================================================================================
Record: 61-46 (0.570)
Win Rank: 28/36
Offense: 114.9 PPG (rank 14/36)
Defense: 112.0 PPG allowed (rank 23/36)
Pt Diff: +2.9
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Derrick Lynch SF 26 5.0 37.6 32.3 8.1 4.2 60.7 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Makyi Olanrewaju PG 31 5.0 35.7 26.7 3.9 9.6 60.4 Shot Creator Point Of Attack BEST CA
LaRon Adams SF 28 4.5 31.2 13.9 5.3 2.0 57.6 Movement Shooter Wing Stopper
Ike Person Jr C 29 5.0 32.8 8.3 11.4 1.2 58.0 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Sylvain Garcia PF 28 4.0 25.3 7.7 4.5 3.3 55.9 Shot Creator Wing Stopper
Lorenzo Wade C 29 4.5 24.5 10.3 7.0 1.3 55.8 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Ben Haygood C 27 4.0 16.9 3.4 5.6 0.5 65.4 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Desmond NGanga PG 30 3.5 14.4 5.6 0.7 3.8 65.2 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Pace & Space (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Pace & Space 20.0
Balanced 16.3
Morey Ball 7.2
Grit & Grind 4.1
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Post Centric 2.0
Seven Seconds 2.0
Triangle 0.0
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 17.56 17.09 +0.47
shooting / 3PT Shooting 15.26 14.64 +0.62
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.58 12.92 +1.66
playmaking / Spacing 10.41 11.35 -0.95
playmaking / Passing 12.97 13.74 -0.77
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.61 12.52 +0.09
creation / Self-Creation 15.21 14.61 +0.60
creation / Finishing 16.19 15.14 +1.05
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.70 10.14 -0.43
playmaking / Gravity 14.18 13.67 +0.51
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 56%
Roll : Pop: 53:47
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 75:25
Corner 3 : Above Break: 55:45
Primary Scoring Options:
Derrick Lynch 32.3 PPG USG: 34.6% TS: 60.7% 3P: 39.0%
Makyi Olanrewaju 26.7 PPG USG: 30.8% TS: 60.4% 3P: 37.4%
LaRon Adams 13.9 PPG USG: 18.9% TS: 57.6% 3P: 38.2%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; elite PnR execution; poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.07 14.49 +0.58
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.88 14.00 -0.12
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.86 12.95 -1.10
defense / Rim Protection 12.58 11.26 +1.32
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 16.83 13.26 +3.57
defense / Post Defense 12.27 11.35 +0.92
defense / Stealing 15.71 13.12 +2.59
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Anchor Big x2
Mobile Big x2
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 112.0 (rank 23/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.86 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 16.83 (lg avg 13.26, +3.57)
defense / Stealing 15.71 (lg avg 13.12, +2.59)
shooting / Free Throws 16.35 (lg avg 14.67, +1.68)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 14.58 (lg avg 12.92, +1.66)
physical / First Step 13.43 (lg avg 11.90, +1.53)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
physical / Strength 10.27 (lg avg 12.24, -1.97)
physical / Quickness 11.35 (lg avg 12.55, -1.19)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.86 (lg avg 12.95, -1.10)
physical / Speed 10.51 (lg avg 11.56, -1.05)
playmaking / Spacing 10.41 (lg avg 11.35, -0.95)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Strength Opp: 10.27 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +4.29
physical / Quickness Opp: 11.35 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +3.01
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 11.86 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +2.63
physical / Speed Opp: 10.51 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +2.51
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 10.41 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +1.80
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 9.70 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +2.51
physical / Athleticism Opp: 13.07 Denver: 14.83 Edge: +1.76
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.9 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (15.3 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
3. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (10.4 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
4. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Derrick Lynch (32.3 PPG, 34.6% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.70 (+2.51)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.86 (+2.63)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 13.07 (+1.76)
physical / Quickness Denver 14.36 vs 11.35 (+3.01)
physical / Speed Denver 13.02 vs 10.51 (+2.51)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding Denver 12.76 vs 16.83 (-4.07)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 12.73 (-3.83)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 9.64 (-3.53)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 15.33 (-3.22)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting Denver 10.66 vs 13.54 (-2.88)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 43-39
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (avg pt diff: +9.9)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 5
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +0.3
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +3.1
Season Trend: IMPROVING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 14.6 (league avg 12.0)
2. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 30.5/g (league avg 29.3)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Challenge Every Shot as defensive emphases. Watch Derrick Lynch (28% of scoring).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_seattle_thunder.txt
St Louis Skyhawks
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: ST LOUIS SKYHAWKS
==========================================================================================
Record: 56-27 (0.675)
Win Rank: 3/36
Offense: 113.6 PPG (rank 22/36)
Defense: 108.0 PPG allowed (rank 5/36)
Pt Diff: +5.6
Class: ELITE CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jahda Carlisle PG 20 4.0 33.0 22.4 5.6 3.0 55.2 Secondary Creator Point Of Attack TOP PPG
Denis Molodtsov C 19 3.5 31.8 19.1 9.3 0.7 58.6 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Roberto Vega C 25 5.0 29.3 8.1 7.0 3.6 58.2 Interior Playmaker Mobile Big BEST CA
Andrej Lukic C 21 4.0 26.7 7.7 8.9 1.5 51.4 Post Bully Mobile Big
Hiroaki Kawase PG 20 3.0 28.7 13.0 2.3 2.7 53.0 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Kaleb Sterling PF 21 3.0 20.2 8.1 2.0 1.5 51.8 Glue Guy Wing Stopper
Conner Pearson C 30 5.0 16.2 5.7 5.5 0.7 63.9 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Jade Ahelegbe SG 26 4.0 17.4 7.0 1.0 3.4 54.7 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Pace & Space 10.7
Post Centric 4.9
Morey Ball 4.6
Seven Seconds 3.9
Triangle 3.7
Perimeter Centric 2.3
Grit & Grind 1.3
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.44 17.09 -0.65
shooting / 3PT Shooting 11.66 14.64 -2.98
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 10.44 12.92 -2.48
playmaking / Spacing 9.32 11.35 -2.03
playmaking / Passing 13.18 13.74 -0.56
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.38 12.52 -0.14
creation / Self-Creation 13.68 14.61 -0.93
creation / Finishing 13.37 15.14 -1.77
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 6.93 10.14 -3.21
playmaking / Gravity 11.01 13.67 -2.65
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 45%
Roll : Pop: 51:49
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 54:46
Corner 3 : Above Break: 50:50
Primary Scoring Options:
Jahda Carlisle 22.4 PPG USG: 30.5% TS: 55.2% 3P: 35.0%
Denis Molodtsov 19.1 PPG USG: 25.3% TS: 58.6% 3P: 20.8%
Hiroaki Kawase 13.0 PPG USG: 21.5% TS: 53.0% 3P: 50.0%
Scoring Identity: poor spacing (exploitable)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 13.07 14.49 -1.42
defense / Off-Ball Defense 16.31 14.00 +2.31
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.72 12.95 -1.23
defense / Rim Protection 12.82 11.26 +1.56
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.84 13.26 -0.42
defense / Post Defense 12.92 11.35 +1.57
defense / Stealing 13.47 13.12 +0.35
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Point Of Attack x3
Mobile Big x2
Anchor Big x2
Wing Stopper x2
Points Allowed: 108.0 (rank 5/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Help Defense 13.07 vs 14.49 lg avg (-1.42)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.72 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.23)
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.84 vs 13.26 lg avg (-0.42)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
defense / Off-Ball Defense 16.31 (lg avg 14.00, +2.31)
physical / Athleticism 14.97 (lg avg 13.16, +1.80)
creation / Foul Drawing 16.11 (lg avg 14.51, +1.61)
defense / Post Defense 12.92 (lg avg 11.35, +1.57)
defense / Rim Protection 12.82 (lg avg 11.26, +1.56)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 6.93 (lg avg 10.14, -3.21)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 11.66 (lg avg 14.64, -2.98)
execution / Isolation Execution 11.19 (lg avg 13.84, -2.66)
playmaking / Gravity 11.01 (lg avg 13.67, -2.65)
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 10.44 (lg avg 12.92, -2.48)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Opp: 6.93 Denver: 12.22 Edge: +5.29
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 11.19 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +2.93
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 10.44 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +2.83
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 9.32 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +2.88
physical / First Step Opp: 10.20 Denver: 13.72 Edge: +3.52
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (13.1 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
2. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.7 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
3. CRASH THE BOARDS: Poor defensive rebounding (12.8 vs 13.3 lg avg). Send offensive rebounders for second-chance points.
4. PACK THE PAINT: Weak 3PT shooting (11.7 vs 14.6 lg avg). Sag off non-shooters and clog driving lanes.
5. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (9.3 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
6. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Jahda Carlisle (22.4 PPG, 30.5% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 13.37 (+1.16)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 6.93 (+5.29)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 13.07 (+1.01)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.72 (+2.77)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 14.96 (+1.29)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 16.11 (-4.71)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 8.72 (-2.62)
defense / Off-Ball Defense Denver 13.94 vs 16.31 (-2.37)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 11.14 (-2.23)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 13.93 (-1.82)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 55-27
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +4.1)
Current Streak: W5
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Loss Streak: 3
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +6.7
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.2
Season Trend: DECLINING
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 58% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (58%) and outside (42%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_st_louis_skyhawks.txt
Toronto Huskies
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: TORONTO HUSKIES
==========================================================================================
Record: 52-31 (0.627)
Win Rank: 11/36
Offense: 112.9 PPG (rank 26/36)
Defense: 109.1 PPG allowed (rank 11/36)
Pt Diff: +3.8
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lukas Kempe C 21 3.5 31.4 9.0 8.0 1.4 55.8 Roll-and-Cut Big Mobile Big
Malik Jefferson PG 21 4.0 31.8 15.8 3.4 3.5 55.4 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Jarrett Sutherland PG 25 4.5 32.0 19.2 4.0 7.8 61.4 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack TOP PPG
Hakeem Martin C 19 1.5 32.8 16.5 10.4 1.1 57.4 Post Scorer Anchor Big
Kourtlin Bechard SF 20 4.5 28.9 15.1 4.3 5.0 50.2 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Gregor Zorko SF 20 3.0 26.4 8.7 3.7 2.8 52.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Zeng Zhipeng C 20 3.0 28.4 14.7 8.2 1.3 63.4 Pick-and-Pop Big Anchor Big
Ambrose Udoh C 33 5.0 21.3 9.0 6.0 1.0 54.2 Interior Playmaker Mobile Big BEST CA
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Morey Ball (wt avg proficiency: 17.9)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Morey Ball 17.9
Balanced 15.0
Pace & Space 7.2
Seven Seconds 3.2
Triangle 2.8
Perimeter Centric 2.5
Post Centric 2.1
Grit & Grind 1.3
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 16.13 17.09 -0.96
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.47 14.64 -0.17
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 11.10 12.92 -1.82
playmaking / Spacing 10.73 11.35 -0.62
playmaking / Passing 13.38 13.74 -0.36
playmaking / Ball Handling 11.19 12.52 -1.33
creation / Self-Creation 13.73 14.61 -0.88
creation / Finishing 13.19 15.14 -1.96
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 9.88 10.14 -0.25
playmaking / Gravity 12.06 13.67 -1.60
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 52%
Roll : Pop: 40:60
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 60:40
Corner 3 : Above Break: 43:57
Primary Scoring Options:
Jarrett Sutherland 19.2 PPG USG: 24.5% TS: 61.4% 3P: 41.3%
Hakeem Martin 16.5 PPG USG: 21.8% TS: 57.4% 3P: 18.9%
Malik Jefferson 15.8 PPG USG: 22.6% TS: 55.4% 3P: 37.8%
Scoring Identity: poor spacing (exploitable)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 11.89 14.49 -2.60
defense / Off-Ball Defense 14.00 14.00 -0.01
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.44 12.95 -1.51
defense / Rim Protection 9.15 11.26 -2.11
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 12.96 13.26 -0.30
defense / Post Defense 10.04 11.35 -1.31
defense / Stealing 9.97 13.12 -3.15
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Mobile Big x2
Anchor Big x2
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 109.1 (rank 11/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Stealing 9.97 vs 13.12 lg avg (-3.15)
defense / Help Defense 11.89 vs 14.49 lg avg (-2.60)
defense / Rim Protection 9.15 vs 11.26 lg avg (-2.11)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 11.44 vs 12.95 lg avg (-1.51)
defense / Post Defense 10.04 vs 11.35 lg avg (-1.31)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
creation / Foul Drawing 14.64 (lg avg 14.51, +0.14)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
defense / Stealing 9.97 (lg avg 13.12, -3.15)
defense / Help Defense 11.89 (lg avg 14.49, -2.60)
physical / Speed 9.11 (lg avg 11.56, -2.45)
physical / Strength 9.91 (lg avg 12.24, -2.33)
execution / Isolation Execution 11.63 (lg avg 13.84, -2.22)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
defense / Stealing Opp: 9.97 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +3.91
physical / Speed Opp: 9.11 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +3.91
physical / Strength Opp: 9.91 Denver: 14.56 Edge: +4.65
execution / Isolation Execution Opp: 11.63 Denver: 14.12 Edge: +2.49
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 12.71 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +3.55
defense / Rim Protection Opp: 9.15 Denver: 12.32 Edge: +3.17
physical / Quickness Opp: 10.56 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +3.80
execution / Pick & Roll Execution Opp: 11.10 Denver: 13.27 Edge: +2.17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ATTACK THE RIM: Weak rim protection (9.2 vs 11.3 lg avg). Feed interior scorers and drive aggressively.
2. DRIVE AND KICK: Poor help defense (11.9 vs 14.5 lg avg). Penetrate and collapse the defense for open kickouts.
3. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (11.4 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
4. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (10.7 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
5. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Jarrett Sutherland (19.2 PPG, 24.5% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Finishing Denver 14.53 vs 13.19 (+1.34)
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 9.88 (+2.33)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 11.89 (+2.19)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 11.44 (+3.05)
defense / Post Defense Denver 11.45 vs 10.04 (+1.41)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Foul Drawing Denver 11.41 vs 14.64 (-3.24)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 7.93 (-1.82)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 10.61 (-1.71)
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 13.59 (-1.47)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 52-30
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (avg pt diff: +5.5)
Current Streak: W4
Longest Win Streak: 10
Longest Loss Streak: 6
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.4
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +6.7
Season Trend: IMPROVING
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SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Under
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 53% (league avg 50%)
2. Box Out -- Default conservative choice
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 47%, 2PT share 53%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Protect The Rim and Box Out as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_toronto_huskies.txt
Vancouver Wolves
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: VANCOUVER WOLVES
==========================================================================================
Record: 55-41 (0.573)
Win Rank: 27/36
Offense: 115.7 PPG (rank 9/36)
Defense: 112.7 PPG allowed (rank 30/36)
Pt Diff: +3.0
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
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SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
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Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kostas Zonas PG 29 5.0 33.3 19.6 6.1 6.7 57.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Orkun Ozcan PG 29 4.0 33.2 18.5 2.7 7.2 57.8 Shot Creator Point Of Attack
Sergio Ortuño C 31 5.0 32.4 20.7 12.8 2.8 61.8 Pick-and-Pop Big Anchor Big TOP PPG
Drake Walter PF 28 5.0 32.5 17.0 6.0 5.8 58.1 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper BEST CA
Jordan Johnson Jr PG 25 4.5 26.1 11.4 4.4 2.5 55.9 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
John Jones PF 28 5.0 30.0 13.1 7.2 0.9 63.0 Glue Guy Helper
Steve Comino PF 27 4.5 23.0 7.7 6.9 0.7 55.2 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Markise Stelly PG 25 4.0 4.2 1.6 0.5 0.5 55.3 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Pace & Space (wt avg proficiency: 19.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Pace & Space 19.0
Balanced 15.9
Morey Ball 10.1
Grit & Grind 9.1
Seven Seconds 5.9
Triangle 3.7
Perimeter Centric 2.0
Post Centric 2.0
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 18.21 17.09 +1.12
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.90 14.64 +2.26
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 12.96 12.92 +0.04
playmaking / Spacing 13.57 11.35 +2.21
playmaking / Passing 16.00 13.74 +2.26
playmaking / Ball Handling 13.72 12.52 +1.19
creation / Self-Creation 15.93 14.61 +1.33
creation / Finishing 16.33 15.14 +1.19
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 11.98 10.14 +1.85
playmaking / Gravity 14.23 13.67 +0.57
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 62%
Roll : Pop: 41:59
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 69:31
Corner 3 : Above Break: 59:41
Primary Scoring Options:
Sergio Ortuño 20.7 PPG USG: 24.9% TS: 61.8% 3P: 42.4%
Kostas Zonas 19.6 PPG USG: 24.3% TS: 57.9% 3P: 38.4%
Orkun Ozcan 18.5 PPG USG: 22.8% TS: 57.8% 3P: 38.5%
Scoring Identity: strong 3PT shooting team; strong inside scoring; drive-heavy
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SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 16.97 14.49 +2.47
defense / Off-Ball Defense 15.27 14.00 +1.27
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.83 12.95 +2.87
defense / Rim Protection 12.29 11.26 +1.03
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.64 13.26 +0.38
defense / Post Defense 11.23 11.35 -0.12
defense / Stealing 11.47 13.12 -1.66
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Wing Stopper x3
Anchor Big x1
Helper x1
Mobile Big x1
Point Of Attack x1
Points Allowed: 112.7 (rank 30/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Stealing 11.47 vs 13.12 lg avg (-1.66)
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SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
physical / Quickness 16.26 (lg avg 12.55, +3.71)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15.83 (lg avg 12.95, +2.87)
creation / Ball Dominance 16.68 (lg avg 13.90, +2.78)
defense / Help Defense 16.97 (lg avg 14.49, +2.47)
shooting / 3PT Shooting 16.90 (lg avg 14.64, +2.26)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
creation / Foul Drawing 12.33 (lg avg 14.51, -2.18)
execution / Basketball IQ 12.98 (lg avg 14.90, -1.91)
shooting / Mid-Range Shooting 10.56 (lg avg 12.40, -1.84)
defense / Stealing 11.47 (lg avg 13.12, -1.66)
execution / Post Execution 7.78 (lg avg 8.35, -0.57)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
execution / Basketball IQ Opp: 12.98 Denver: 16.25 Edge: +3.27
defense / Stealing Opp: 11.47 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +2.41
defense / Post Defense Opp: 11.23 Denver: 11.45 Edge: +0.22
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SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. DEFEND THE ARC: Strong 3PT team (16.9 vs 14.6 lg avg). Close out hard on shooters, contest every three.
2. KEY ASSIGNMENT: Contain Sergio Ortuño (20.7 PPG, 24.9% USG). Assign best perimeter defender, deny touches.
Denver's Edge Areas:
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 11.47 (+2.41)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 12.98 (+3.27)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 13.72 (+1.10)
physical / Endurance Denver 12.77 vs 11.18 (+1.59)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 16.68 (-4.57)
playmaking / Playmaking Denver 8.90 vs 13.25 (-4.34)
playmaking / Passing Denver 13.06 vs 16.00 (-2.93)
defense / Help Defense Denver 14.08 vs 16.97 (-2.89)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 15.93 (-2.84)
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SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 44-38
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (avg pt diff: +4.4)
Current Streak: W2
Longest Win Streak: 6
Longest Loss Streak: 7
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +2.9
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +1.2
Season Trend: DECLINING
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SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Perimeter (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Challenge Every Shot -- 3PA 33.8/g (league avg 29.3)
2. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.0 (league avg 12.0)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Perimeter-heavy (3PT share 48%, 2PT share 52%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Contest every perimeter shot and force them inside. Prioritize Challenge Every Shot and Defensive Communication as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_vancouver_wolves.txt
Washington Pilots
==========================================================================================
SCOUTING REPORT: WASHINGTON PILOTS
==========================================================================================
Record: 51-32 (0.614)
Win Rank: 14/36
Offense: 113.0 PPG (rank 24/36)
Defense: 108.6 PPG allowed (rank 6/36)
Pt Diff: +4.4
Class: PLAYOFF CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 1: KEY PERSONNEL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Pos Age CA MPG PPG RPG APG TS% Off Arch Def Arch Note
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kalen Smart SF 34 4.0 32.9 16.5 5.2 5.2 52.3 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper TOP PPG
Jack Meyer PF 27 4.5 32.5 13.0 10.1 1.2 59.9 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Dwayne McRae SF 29 4.5 32.4 15.6 3.8 4.2 55.8 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Martrevious McClure C 25 4.5 28.4 9.5 7.5 0.7 61.2 Roll-and-Cut Big Anchor Big
Dominic Vukcevic PF 28 5.0 27.4 15.5 8.5 1.4 55.5 Versatile Big Mobile Big
Evan Demery PF 29 4.0 24.6 9.2 3.9 2.0 53.2 Secondary Creator Wing Stopper
Kenny Cokley PG 30 4.5 33.3 15.6 2.9 6.7 57.8 Primary Ballhandler Point Of Attack
Leron Victorian C 26 5.0 16.9 8.6 4.2 0.5 59.6 Post Bully Mobile Big BEST CA
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SECTION 2: OFFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Identity: Balanced (wt avg proficiency: 20.0)
System Proficiency Breakdown (rotation, minutes-weighted):
Balanced 20.0
Seven Seconds 13.1
Morey Ball 12.6
Pace & Space 10.3
Grit & Grind 6.5
Post Centric 4.6
Perimeter Centric 4.0
Triangle 1.3
Offensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
shooting / Inside Shooting 18.51 17.09 +1.42
shooting / 3PT Shooting 14.89 14.64 +0.26
execution / Pick & Roll Execution 13.26 12.92 +0.34
playmaking / Spacing 9.91 11.35 -1.44
playmaking / Passing 11.84 13.74 -1.90
playmaking / Ball Handling 12.21 12.52 -0.31
creation / Self-Creation 15.79 14.61 +1.18
creation / Finishing 15.87 15.14 +0.73
creation / Shoot Off Dribble 10.05 10.14 -0.09
playmaking / Gravity 14.35 13.67 +0.68
Key Tendencies (rotation averages):
Driving frequency: 64%
Roll : Pop: 42:58
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up: 66:34
Corner 3 : Above Break: 59:41
Primary Scoring Options:
Kalen Smart 16.5 PPG USG: 23.9% TS: 52.3% 3P: 34.6%
Dwayne McRae 15.6 PPG USG: 21.5% TS: 55.8% 3P: 35.0%
Kenny Cokley 15.6 PPG USG: 19.8% TS: 57.8% 3P: 36.0%
Scoring Identity: strong inside scoring; poor spacing (exploitable); drive-heavy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 3: DEFENSIVE PROFILE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Ratings (rotation, minutes-weighted vs league avg):
Rating Team LgAvg Diff
---------------------------------------------------------------
defense / Help Defense 15.49 14.49 +1.00
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.29 14.00 -0.71
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.63 12.95 -0.32
defense / Rim Protection 12.28 11.26 +1.02
rebounding / Defensive Rebounding 13.31 13.26 +0.06
defense / Post Defense 11.36 11.35 +0.02
defense / Stealing 12.61 13.12 -0.51
Defensive Archetypes (rotation):
Mobile Big x3
Wing Stopper x3
Point Of Attack x1
Anchor Big x1
Chaser x1
Points Allowed: 108.6 (rank 6/36)
Defensive Vulnerabilities (below league avg):
defense / Off-Ball Defense 13.29 vs 14.00 lg avg (-0.71)
defense / Stealing 12.61 vs 13.12 lg avg (-0.51)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense 12.63 vs 12.95 lg avg (-0.32)
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SECTION 4: STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
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Top 5 Advantages (exceed league avg):
creation / Ball Dominance 16.61 (lg avg 13.90, +2.71)
execution / Post Execution 10.03 (lg avg 8.35, +1.68)
shooting / Inside Shooting 18.51 (lg avg 17.09, +1.42)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding 13.71 (lg avg 12.32, +1.40)
physical / First Step 13.17 (lg avg 11.90, +1.27)
Top 5 Weaknesses (trail league avg):
playmaking / Passing 11.84 (lg avg 13.74, -1.90)
physical / Speed 9.98 (lg avg 11.56, -1.59)
playmaking / Spacing 9.91 (lg avg 11.35, -1.44)
physical / Quickness 11.34 (lg avg 12.55, -1.21)
playmaking / Playmaking 10.85 (lg avg 11.88, -1.03)
Exploitable Matchups (their weakness + Denver strength):
physical / Speed Opp: 9.98 Denver: 13.02 Edge: +3.04
playmaking / Spacing Opp: 9.91 Denver: 12.21 Edge: +2.29
physical / Quickness Opp: 11.34 Denver: 14.36 Edge: +3.02
defense / Stealing Opp: 12.61 Denver: 13.88 Edge: +1.27
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Opp: 12.63 Denver: 14.49 Edge: +1.86
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SECTION 5: DENVER GAME PLAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic Approach:
1. ISO OPPORTUNITIES: Weak perimeter defense (12.6 vs 13.0 lg avg). Let wing creators attack 1-on-1.
2. CROWD THE LANE: Poor spacing (9.9 vs 11.4 lg avg). Play aggressive help defense — their shooters won't punish you.
Denver's Edge Areas:
creation / Shoot Off Dribble Denver 12.22 vs 10.05 (+2.17)
defense / On-Ball Perimeter Defense Denver 14.49 vs 12.63 (+1.86)
defense / Stealing Denver 13.88 vs 12.61 (+1.27)
execution / Basketball IQ Denver 16.25 vs 15.23 (+1.03)
physical / Athleticism Denver 14.83 vs 13.23 (+1.59)
Denver's Disadvantage Areas:
creation / Ball Dominance Denver 12.11 vs 16.61 (-4.50)
execution / Post Execution Denver 6.11 vs 10.03 (-3.92)
creation / Self-Creation Denver 13.10 vs 15.79 (-2.70)
shooting / Inside Shooting Denver 15.87 vs 18.51 (-2.64)
rebounding / Offensive Rebounding Denver 11.29 vs 13.71 (-2.42)
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SECTION 6: SEASON RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Record: 51-31
Away Record: 0-0
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (avg pt diff: +1.7)
Current Streak: W3
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Loss Streak: 4
1st Half Avg Pt Diff: +5.0
2nd Half Avg Pt Diff: +4.0
Season Trend: STABLE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECTION 7: DEFENSIVE SETTINGS (MORGADO)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
Intensity: Conservative
Focus: Balanced (Low confidence)
Guard Screen Def: Over
Big Screen Def: Drop
EMPHASIS (pick 2):
1. Defensive Communication -- PnR rating 13.3 (league avg 12.0)
2. Protect The Rim -- 2PT scoring share 55% (league avg 50%)
FOCUS RATIONALE:
Dual threat — strong inside (55%) and outside (45%)
GAME PLAN SUMMARY:
Play balanced defense without creating openings on either side. Prioritize Defensive Communication and Protect The Rim as defensive emphases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report saved to: C:\Users\sloeh\OneDrive\Desktop\JBL - Claude\JBL Analytics\analysis\output\reports\14_scout_washington_pilots.txt