CJBL Analysis Reports
All analysis reports organized by category with key findings and freshness indicators
Last updated: Mar 19, 2026
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Player Analysis
3 reports
On-Court Impact Analysis
Fresh
On-Court Impact — league-wide impact metric blending box score priors with RAPM
Top On-Court Impact leaders: Tolu Conners (-22.83), DaMetrius Tuggle (-11.19), Hidde Harler (-14.25). Higher OCI = greater estimated impact on team performance.
Overview
CJBL College On-Court Impact Analysis TOP 25 ON-COURT IMPACT (League-Wide) Rank Name Team GP MPG OCI Off OCI Def OCI 1 Tolu Conners UNC Greensboro 2 2.3 +34.22 +11.39 -22.83 2 DaMetrius Tuggle West Virginia 24 26.4 +33.92 +22.64 -11.19 3 Hidde Harler DePaul 25 25.9 +32.04 +17.70 -14.25 4 Kibret Lagerson UC Irvine 25 28.7 +31.31 +27.14 -4.17 5 Manase Landdeck Alcorn State 25 24.1 +30.85 +18.85 -12.00 6 Eamon DiLoreto Memphis 26 29.1 +30.74 +25.89 -4.84 7 Ilker Kautai Long Beach State 24 21.8 +29.61 +24.64 -4.97 8 Haris Umjenovic DePaul 25 26.0 +29.27 +18.43 -10.84 9 Roque Isern Murray State 24 17.0 +28.55 +10.43 -18.13 10 Rino Di Eusanio Le Moyne 24 28.2 +28.36 +22.44 -5.92 11 Carlo Esho Merrimack 24 28.3 +27.89 +22.82 -4.98 12 Cian Raynor Powell Akron 23 29.4 +27.88 +7.03 -20.85 13 Edin Ossai San Diego State 24 25.1 +27.84 +10.68 -17.17 14 Harley Richard Georgetown 24 30.2 +27.44 +20.72 -6.72 15 Kario Pebbles Georgia State 23 26.8 +26.63 +25.10 -1.53 16 Golden Landry Illinois 25 26.2 +26.46 +16.84 -9.63 17 Demetri Bonilla Valparaiso 23 29.6 +26.32 +8.82 -17.51 18 Rafriel Herndon Arkansas State 1 3.6 +26.27 +21.82 -4.43 19 Millaun Fofana Evansville 24 24.2 +26.15 +11.17 -14.98 20 Anu Gittens College of Charleston 23 27.5 +26.11 +13.86 -12.25 21 Dawon Jorgenson Illinois State 24 29.4 +26.07 +13.52 -12.54 22 Tavon Dunford Bowling Green 23 25.2 +26.02 +17.66 -8.35 23 Donavan Erger South Carolina State 24 28.7 +25.91 +22.27 -3.63 24 Jevon Tyndale South Dakota 2 3.9 +25.89 +5.17 -20.72 25 Nicklaus Susskind Princeton 24 29.5 +25.78 +18.62 -7.16
Top 15 On-Court Impact (Ovc)
Deantre Forte III Southeast Missouri State GP=24 MPG= 24.2 OCI=+19.42 Off OCI=+18.38 Def OCI= -1.05 Dylen Kelm Southeast Missouri State GP=24 MPG= 25.6 OCI=+18.61 Off OCI=+17.05 Def OCI= -1.56 Clifton Ozdemir Tennessee State GP=24 MPG= 20.5 OCI=+15.46 Off OCI=+17.35 Def OCI= +1.89 Rondale Moute a Bidias Morehead State GP=24 MPG= 19.7 OCI=+14.52 Off OCI= +1.99 Def OCI=-12.46 Dayna Friel Eastern Illinois GP=24 MPG= 24.5 OCI=+13.50 Off OCI= +7.31 Def OCI= -6.19 Courvoisier Telander Tennessee-Martin GP=24 MPG= 19.3 OCI=+13.18 Off OCI= +0.20 Def OCI=-12.91 Salim Sonko Morehead State GP=24 MPG= 17.0 OCI=+12.82 Off OCI= +7.37 Def OCI= -5.45 Malon Gresko Little Rock GP= 2 MPG= 3.4 OCI=+12.62 Off OCI= +2.67 Def OCI= -9.93 Parnell Murrer Morehead State GP=19 MPG= 18.3 OCI=+11.45 Off OCI= +5.83 Def OCI= -5.62 Andre Groover Little Rock GP=24 MPG= 26.6 OCI=+11.45 Off OCI=+10.11 Def OCI= -1.25 Leeandre Haak Little Rock GP=24 MPG= 27.7 OCI=+11.00 Off OCI= +7.83 Def OCI= -3.16 Tayvion Cimaglia Eastern Illinois GP=24 MPG= 24.9 OCI=+10.99 Off OCI= +9.99 Def OCI= -1.00 Dante Cooper Southern Indiana GP=24 MPG= 16.0 OCI= +9.73 Off OCI= +2.30 Def OCI= -7.38 Aaryn Kennah Little Rock GP=24 MPG= 26.0 OCI= +9.25 Off OCI= +9.76 Def OCI= +0.50 Luiz Obasi Little Rock GP=24 MPG= 27.3 OCI= +8.75 Off OCI= +9.06 Def OCI= +0.31
Siue Cougars On-Court Impact
DQ Akele GP=25 MPG= 26.8 OCI=+11.77 (Off:+9.89 Def:-1.88) Blend=86% Tabari Totten GP=24 MPG= 20.3 OCI= +7.26 (Off:+1.35 Def:-5.91) Blend=72% Jadin Barnard GP=23 MPG= 13.5 OCI= +6.47 (Off:+2.54 Def:-3.92) Blend=51% Mehkel Fitzwater GP=25 MPG= 19.5 OCI= +6.17 (Off:-1.47 Def:-7.64) Blend=72% Torgrim Lund GP=25 MPG= 26.8 OCI= +4.05 (Off:+5.90 Def:+1.85) Blend=86% Kiel Sharkey GP=21 MPG= 12.7 OCI= +3.22 (Off:-1.19 Def:-4.42) Blend=46% Mark Mimms GP=15 MPG= 7.9 OCI= +1.52 (Off:-0.38 Def:-1.90) Blend=29% Mikell Huebner GP=25 MPG= 18.3 OCI= +1.43 (Off:-5.22 Def:-6.72) Blend=69% Stanislav Kunchik GP=22 MPG= 13.0 OCI= +0.65 (Off:+0.47 Def:-0.18) Blend=48% Tyjuan Shelby GP=18 MPG= 9.6 OCI= +0.29 (Off:-0.66 Def:-0.95) Blend=35% Donald Fallon GP=25 MPG= 22.4 OCI= +0.27 (Off:+3.17 Def:+2.90) Blend=79% Canyon Jihad GP=24 MPG= 27.0 OCI= -0.11 (Off:-0.32 Def:-0.21) Blend=85% Sai Iruafemi GP=23 MPG= 15.0 OCI= -0.16 (Off:-0.26 Def:-0.10) Blend=56% Quion Sliwoski GP=22 MPG= 21.1 OCI= -0.24 (Off:-0.52 Def:-0.28) Blend=70% Arkel Topercer GP=21 MPG= 12.2 OCI= -0.49 (Off:-1.76 Def:-1.27) Blend=44% Sincere Fives GP= 4 MPG= 3.5 OCI= -0.75 (Off:-5.82 Def:-5.06) Blend=19% Donchevell Ross GP=12 MPG= 7.8 OCI= -0.77 (Off:-1.81 Def:-1.05) Blend=26% Deonata Benock GP= 4 MPG= 8.5 OCI= -1.68 (Off:-3.37 Def:-1.69) Blend=21% Arlon Sanderson GP=19 MPG= 17.1 OCI= -1.70 (Off:-1.57 Def:+0.12) Blend=53% Rocky Cyr GP=25 MPG= 6.3 OCI= -2.23 (Off:-2.36 Def:-0.14) Blend=33% Lonny Tran GP=25 MPG= 28.1 OCI= -2.43 (Off:+2.00 Def:+4.44) Blend=88% Akintoye Sigler GP=16 MPG= 11.1 OCI= -3.27 (Off:-4.56 Def:-1.30) Blend=35% Izayah Coddington GP=24 MPG= 24.6 OCI= -4.11 (Off:+3.50 Def:+7.69) Blend=81% Coray Guthridge GP= 6 MPG= 6.5 OCI= -4.43 (Off:-9.02 Def:-4.59) Blend=21% Taryn Lankford GP=25 MPG= 26.2 OCI= -5.23 (Off:-0.62 Def:+4.53) Blend=85% Cyncier Levett GP=24 MPG= 13.8 OCI= -6.25 (Off:-4.71 Def:+1.54) Blend=54% Loyd Robinzine GP=24 MPG= 20.9 OCI=-15.78 (Off:+1.82 Def:+17.53) Blend=73% Ben Killpatrick GP= 2 MPG= 2.3 OCI=-16.49 (Off:-21.12 Def:-4.66) Blend=19%
On-Court Impact Distribution
Mean: -0.484 Std: 8.351 Median: -0.161 Min: -30.628 Max: +34.220
Player Impact Scores
Fresh
Composite 1-100 impact scores: On-Court Impact (55%) + Win Model Score (45%)
Top Impact leaders: Alejandro Olmos (99), Jabbar Benock (94). Scale 1-100: 85+ Elite, 70-84 Star, 55-69 Starter.
Overview
CJBL College Player Impact Scores (1-100) Components: On-Court Impact (55%) + Win Model Score (45%) TOP 25 IMPACT (League-Wide) Rk Name Team Impact Off Def Tier Conf 1 Alejandro Olmos Cincinnati 99 91 64 Elite 95% 2 Jabbar Benock Washington State 94 76 56 Elite 87% 4 Emery Repass Sacred Heart 92 70 55 Elite 91% 4 Valerian Lambert Vanderbilt 92 70 39 Elite 89% 6 Eamon DiLoreto Memphis 91 83 52 Elite 94% 6 Ben Blakney Duke 91 89 54 Elite 93% 7 Amath Lecomte Illinois 90 81 51 Elite 91% 11 Golden Landry Illinois 88 85 36 Elite 91% 11 Rodarius Atchison La Salle 88 74 47 Elite 91% 11 Cian Raynor Powell Akron 88 57 36 Elite 92% 11 Harley Richard Georgetown 88 84 42 Elite 93% 12 Guglielmo Illiano Arizona State 87 77 64 Elite 89% 16 Jett Pajeaud Houston 86 72 40 Elite 94% 16 Deante Walker Virginia 86 77 51 Elite 94% 16 Anu Gittens College of Charleston 86 74 44 Elite 90% 16 Haris Umjenovic DePaul 86 69 43 Elite 90% 19 Kibret Lagerson UC Irvine 85 79 56 Elite 93% 19 DaMetrius Tuggle West Virginia 85 75 38 Elite 90% 19 Millaun Fofana Evansville 85 73 36 Elite 87% 24 Gora Senegal Missouri 84 80 48 Star 94% 24 Osun Rademacher Auburn 84 79 54 Star 93% 24 Montay Rehmel Radford 84 64 51 Star 91% 24 Talat Alpin UC-Davis 84 65 48 Star 91% 24 Rogdrick Scanlon VCU 84 77 35 Star 85% 33 A.K. Caesar Illinois 83 66 54 Star 92%
Top 15 Impact (Ovc)
Andre Groover Little Rock Impact= 78 (O:73 D:59) [Star] Salim Sonko Morehead State Impact= 72 (O:71 D:47) [Star] Courvoisier Telander Tennessee-Martin Impact= 70 (O:57 D:43) [Star] Aaryn Kennah Little Rock Impact= 69 (O:61 D:65) [Starter] Deantre Forte III Southeast Missouri State Impact= 69 (O:70 D:54) [Starter] Johnell O'Neil Little Rock Impact= 67 (O:67 D:60) [Starter] Leeandre Haak Little Rock Impact= 67 (O:76 D:37) [Starter] Rondale Moute a Bidias Morehead State Impact= 67 (O:58 D:40) [Starter] Dylen Kelm Southeast Missouri State Impact= 67 (O:75 D:44) [Starter] Parnell Murrer Morehead State Impact= 66 (O:63 D:51) [Starter] Omar Brandenberg Tennessee Tech Impact= 66 (O:66 D:50) [Starter] Doyle Gerhart Little Rock Impact= 58 (O:53 D:49) [Starter] Tabari Totten Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Impact= 58 (O:57 D:45) [Starter] Luiz Obasi Little Rock Impact= 57 (O:68 D:51) [Starter] Clifton Ozdemir Tennessee State Impact= 57 (O:67 D:44) [Starter]
Siue Cougars Impact Scores
DQ Akele Impact= 66 (O:67 D:47) [Starter] Rank=358/4609 OCI=+11.8 WM Score=+0.081 Conf=91% Tabari Totten Impact= 58 (O:57 D:45) [Starter] Rank=838/4609 OCI=+7.3 WM Score=+0.035 Conf=81% Lonny Tran Impact= 56 (O:67 D:55) [Starter] Rank=1061/4609 OCI=-2.4 WM Score=+0.178 Conf=92% Mehkel Fitzwater Impact= 54 (O:57 D:34) [Average] Rank=1364/4609 OCI=+6.2 WM Score=-0.044 Conf=81% Stanislav Kunchik Impact= 54 (O:52 D:48) [Average] Rank=1364/4609 OCI=+0.7 WM Score=+0.102 Conf=61% Mikell Huebner Impact= 53 (O:42 D:50) [Average] Rank=1565/4609 OCI=+1.4 WM Score=+0.045 Conf=78% Arkel Topercer Impact= 53 (O:56 D:46) [Average] Rank=1565/4609 OCI=-0.5 WM Score=+0.109 Conf=57% Jadin Barnard Impact= 52 (O:50 D:50) [Average] Rank=1814/4609 OCI=+6.5 WM Score=-0.073 Conf=63% Kiel Sharkey Impact= 52 (O:53 D:45) [Average] Rank=1814/4609 OCI=+3.2 WM Score=+0.007 Conf=58% Torgrim Lund Impact= 51 (O:54 D:53) [Average] Rank=2068/4609 OCI=+4.0 WM Score=-0.065 Conf=91% Donald Fallon Impact= 50 (O:46 D:67) [Average] Rank=2366/4609 OCI=+0.3 WM Score=-0.013 Conf=86% Cyncier Levett Impact= 50 (O:58 D:47) [Average] Rank=2366/4609 OCI=-6.2 WM Score=+0.139 Conf=66% Quion Sliwoski Impact= 49 (O:53 D:48) [Average] Rank=2681/4609 OCI=-0.2 WM Score=-0.024 Conf=79% Donchevell Ross Impact= 49 (O:47 D:54) [Average] Rank=2681/4609 OCI=-0.8 WM Score=-0.043 Conf=37% Sincere Fives Impact= 48 (O:47 D:49) [Average] Rank=3019/4609 OCI=-0.8 WM Score=-0.155 Conf=28% Deonata Benock Impact= 48 (O:48 D:49) [Average] Rank=3019/4609 OCI=-1.7 WM Score=-0.091 Conf=30% Rocky Cyr Impact= 48 (O:50 D:46) [Average] Rank=3019/4609 OCI=-2.2 WM Score=-0.060 Conf=45% Mark Mimms Impact= 48 (O:54 D:44) [Average] Rank=3019/4609 OCI=+1.5 WM Score=-0.142 Conf=40% Coray Guthridge Impact= 47 (O:45 D:47) [Average] Rank=3342/4609 OCI=-4.4 WM Score=-0.130 Conf=31% Arlon Sanderson Impact= 47 (O:49 D:50) [Average] Rank=3342/4609 OCI=-1.7 WM Score=-0.068 Conf=65% Tyjuan Shelby Impact= 47 (O:52 D:43) [Average] Rank=3342/4609 OCI=+0.3 WM Score=-0.148 Conf=47% Canyon Jihad Impact= 46 (O:36 D:64) [Average] Rank=3612/4609 OCI=-0.1 WM Score=-0.090 Conf=90% Ben Killpatrick Impact= 44 (O:41 D:50) [Below Avg] Rank=3969/4609 OCI=-16.5 WM Score=-0.070 Conf=27% Loyd Robinzine Impact= 44 (O:66 D:71) [Below Avg] Rank=3969/4609 OCI=-15.8 WM Score=+0.212 Conf=82% Izayah Coddington Impact= 43 (O:59 D:55) [Below Avg] Rank=4093/4609 OCI=-4.1 WM Score=-0.086 Conf=88% Taryn Lankford Impact= 42 (O:42 D:62) [Below Avg] Rank=4195/4609 OCI=-5.2 WM Score=-0.065 Conf=91% Sai Iruafemi Impact= 41 (O:46 D:46) [Below Avg] Rank=4291/4609 OCI=-0.2 WM Score=-0.277 Conf=67% Akintoye Sigler Impact= 40 (O:41 D:50) [Below Avg] Rank=4350/4609 OCI=-3.3 WM Score=-0.374 Conf=47%
Distribution
Mean: 51.1 Std: 9.1 Median: 50.0
Training Camp Development Model
Fresh
Predicted rating changes per skill based on class year, prior rating, and TC focus area
2. Most trainable: Foul Drawing (+1.06), Inside Shooting (+0.44), Mid-Range Shooting (+0.39)
Cjbl Training Camp Development Model
Players analyzed: 5321 Year-over-year observations: 237376 Seasons covered: [2045, 2046, 2047, 2048, 2049, 2050]
Key Findings
1. Sophomores gain +4.8 total rating points vs Juniors +6.5 vs Seniors +14.5 2. Most trainable: Foul Drawing (+1.06), Inside Shooting (+0.44), Mid-Range Shooting (+0.39) 3. Least trainable: Speed (+0.02), Basketball IQ (+0.09), Spacing (+0.18) 4. Best TC focus area: Shooting (avg +0.38/skill), worst: Athletics (+0.16/skill) 5. SIUE highest projected growth: Donchevell Ross (Junior, +15.8 total)
Total Growth By Class Transition
Sophomore : + 4.8 total (n=38,720 player-skill obs) Junior : + 6.5 total (n=93,312 player-skill obs) Senior : + 14.5 total (n=71,968 player-skill obs)
Per-Skill Mean Delta By Class Transition
Skill Soph Junior Senior R2 ---------------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Inside Shooting +0.33 +0.30 +0.69 0.103 Mid-Range Shooting +0.35 +0.22 +0.64 0.040 3PT Shooting +0.23 +0.25 +0.61 0.040 Free Throw Shooting +0.24 +0.18 +0.52 0.048 Self-Creation +0.14 +0.17 +0.49 0.031 Shoot Off Dribble +0.11 +0.17 +0.39 0.024 Ball Dominance +0.09 +0.09 +0.38 0.028 Foul Drawing +0.01 +1.27 +1.35 0.171 Finishing +0.27 +0.25 +0.61 0.043 Playmaking +0.20 +0.20 +0.40 0.013 Passing +0.16 +0.18 +0.43 0.018 Gravity +0.11 +0.12 +0.35 0.028 Spacing +0.07 +0.13 +0.29 0.014 Ball Handling +0.12 +0.15 +0.45 0.023 Isolation Execution +0.16 +0.20 +0.42 0.024 Post Execution +0.21 +0.15 +0.42 0.027 Pick & Roll Execution +0.11 +0.12 +0.42 0.037 Basketball IQ +0.10 +0.06 +0.13 0.019 On-Ball Perimeter Defense +0.21 +0.16 +0.43 0.022 Off-Ball Defense +0.21 +0.22 +0.59 0.041 Help Defense +0.25 +0.24 +0.56 0.056 Stealing +0.16 +0.17 +0.47 0.026 Post Defense +0.13 +0.13 +0.42 0.026 Rim Protection +0.12 +0.17 +0.40 0.022 Offensive Rebounding +0.17 +0.16 +0.40 0.016 Defensive Rebounding +0.13 +0.18 +0.42 0.017 Athleticism +0.10 +0.10 +0.43 0.039 Endurance +0.12 +0.17 +0.36 0.028 First Step +0.03 +0.17 +0.33 0.026 Quickness +0.07 +0.13 +0.36 0.033 Speed -0.04 +0.04 +0.02 0.012 Strength +0.14 +0.23 +0.39 0.013
Tc Focus Area Trainability
Shooting avg delta: +0.381/skill
Best: Inside Shooting (+0.440)
Worst: Free Throw Shooting (+0.311)
Perimeter Defense avg delta: +0.310/skill
Best: Help Defense (+0.353)
Worst: On-Ball Perimeter Defense (+0.264)
Post Defense avg delta: +0.296/skill
Best: Help Defense (+0.353)
Worst: Post Defense (+0.235)
Playmaking avg delta: +0.259/skill
Best: Self-Creation (+0.276)
Worst: Shoot Off Dribble (+0.234)
Rebounding avg delta: +0.256/skill
Best: Strength (+0.270)
Worst: Offensive Rebounding (+0.244)
Endurance avg delta: +0.249/skill
Best: Strength (+0.270)
Worst: Endurance (+0.229)
Offensive Execution avg delta: +0.209/skill
Best: Isolation Execution (+0.268)
Worst: Basketball IQ (+0.090)
Athletics avg delta: +0.159/skill
Best: Athleticism (+0.218)
Worst: Speed (+0.020)
DIMINISHING RETURNS (Top 5 Most Trainable Skills)
Foul Drawing:
1-5: +2.00 (n= 45) ********************
6-8: +1.36 (n= 1101) *************
9-11: +1.78 (n= 1299) *****************
12-14: +1.09 (n= 1357) **********
15-17: +0.85 (n= 2016) ********
18-20: -0.10 (n= 1600)
Inside Shooting:
1-5: N/A (n= 0)
6-8: +1.00 (n= 1) **********
9-11: +1.12 (n= 870) ***********
12-14: +0.62 (n= 2607) ******
15-17: +0.41 (n= 2972) ****
18-20: -0.15 (n= 968)
Mid-Range Shooting:
1-5: +0.50 (n= 463) *****
6-8: +0.37 (n= 844) ***
9-11: +0.59 (n= 2061) *****
12-14: +0.47 (n= 1763) ****
15-17: +0.44 (n= 1798) ****
18-20: -0.21 (n= 489)
Finishing:
1-5: +1.54 (n= 57) ***************
6-8: +0.43 (n= 994) ****
9-11: +0.54 (n= 2154) *****
12-14: +0.55 (n= 1560) *****
15-17: +0.44 (n= 1908) ****
18-20: -0.18 (n= 745)
3PT Shooting:
1-5: +0.59 (n= 377) *****
6-8: +0.30 (n= 993) **
9-11: +0.55 (n= 1961) *****
12-14: +0.55 (n= 1679) *****
15-17: +0.42 (n= 1943) ****
18-20: -0.24 (n= 465)
SIUE PLAYER PROJECTIONS (Next Training Camp)
Donchevell Ross (Junior -> Senior, age 21)
Expected total growth: +15.8
Best focus areas: Shooting, Post Defense, Athletics
Top expected gains:
Foul Drawing : +1.64 [-1.81 to +5.09] (current: 12)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.80 [-1.44 to +3.05] (current: 5)
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.76 [-1.52 to +3.04] (current: 8)
Free Throw Shooting : +0.69 [-1.64 to +3.02] (current: 11)
Endurance : +0.65 [-1.60 to +2.89] (current: 5)
Lowest expected changes:
Playmaking : +0.24 [-1.93 to +2.40] (current: 5)
Isolation Execution : +0.22 [-1.99 to +2.42] (current: 12)
Basketball IQ : +0.17 [-1.72 to +2.05] (current: 7)
Loyd Robinzine (Senior -> 5th Year, age 22)
Expected total growth: +15.6
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Shooting
Top expected gains:
Foul Drawing : +1.19 [-2.26 to +4.64] (current: 8)
Help Defense : +0.96 [-1.29 to +3.20] (current: 9)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.80 [-1.45 to +3.04] (current: 16)
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.69 [-1.59 to +2.97] (current: 15)
Passing : +0.63 [-1.52 to +2.77] (current: 5)
Lowest expected changes:
Ball Dominance : +0.19 [-1.93 to +2.31] (current: 17)
Gravity : +0.18 [-2.04 to +2.40] (current: 19)
Basketball IQ : +0.12 [-1.77 to +2.01] (current: 10)
Canyon Jihad (Junior -> Senior, age 21)
Expected total growth: +15.2
Best focus areas: Shooting, Post Defense, Playmaking
Top expected gains:
Inside Shooting : +0.93 [-1.46 to +3.32] (current: 13)
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.84 [-1.44 to +3.12] (current: 5)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.79 [-1.46 to +3.03] (current: 6)
Finishing : +0.78 [-1.53 to +3.09] (current: 8)
Free Throw Shooting : +0.76 [-1.56 to +3.09] (current: 10)
Lowest expected changes:
Help Defense : +0.21 [-2.04 to +2.46] (current: 16)
Basketball IQ : +0.13 [-1.76 to +2.01] (current: 8)
Endurance : +0.13 [-2.11 to +2.37] (current: 19)
Tabari Totten (Junior -> Senior, age 21)
Expected total growth: +14.6
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Shooting
Top expected gains:
Foul Drawing : +1.64 [-1.81 to +5.09] (current: 12)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.80 [-1.44 to +3.05] (current: 5)
Help Defense : +0.63 [-1.62 to +2.88] (current: 10)
Self-Creation : +0.60 [-1.74 to +2.93] (current: 4)
Athleticism : +0.60 [-1.64 to +2.85] (current: 9)
Lowest expected changes:
Free Throw Shooting : +0.25 [-2.07 to +2.58] (current: 17)
Playmaking : +0.21 [-1.96 to +2.37] (current: 10)
Basketball IQ : -0.03 [-1.92 to +1.86] (current: 12)
Arkel Topercer (Senior -> 5th Year, age 22)
Expected total growth: +14.5
Best focus areas: Shooting, Post Defense, Perimeter Defense
Top expected gains:
Inside Shooting : +1.02 [-1.36 to +3.41] (current: 14)
Help Defense : +0.96 [-1.29 to +3.20] (current: 9)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.83 [-1.42 to +3.08] (current: 14)
Finishing : +0.70 [-1.62 to +3.01] (current: 14)
Passing : +0.62 [-1.52 to +2.76] (current: 6)
Lowest expected changes:
Speed : +0.14 [-1.94 to +2.22] (current: 14)
Basketball IQ : +0.00 [-1.89 to +1.89] (current: 13)
Foul Drawing : -0.20 [-3.65 to +3.25] (current: 18)
Mark Mimms (Junior -> Senior, age 21)
Expected total growth: +13.9
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Shooting
Top expected gains:
Foul Drawing : +1.92 [-1.53 to +5.37] (current: 10)
Help Defense : +0.91 [-1.33 to +3.16] (current: 6)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.67 [-1.58 to +2.92] (current: 13)
Inside Shooting : +0.64 [-1.75 to +3.02] (current: 15)
Defensive Rebounding : +0.56 [-1.57 to +2.69] (current: 7)
Lowest expected changes:
Isolation Execution : +0.10 [-2.11 to +2.30] (current: 16)
Speed : +0.10 [-1.98 to +2.17] (current: 15)
Quickness : +0.04 [-2.21 to +2.29] (current: 19)
Quion Sliwoski (Junior -> Senior, age 21)
Expected total growth: +13.7
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Shooting, Perimeter Defense
Top expected gains:
Off-Ball Defense : +0.77 [-1.48 to +3.02] (current: 7)
Help Defense : +0.77 [-1.48 to +3.02] (current: 8)
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.73 [-1.55 to +3.02] (current: 9)
Athleticism : +0.69 [-1.55 to +2.94] (current: 7)
Finishing : +0.58 [-1.73 to +2.90] (current: 13)
Lowest expected changes:
Playmaking : +0.22 [-1.94 to +2.38] (current: 8)
Basketball IQ : +0.09 [-1.80 to +1.97] (current: 9)
Isolation Execution : +0.04 [-2.17 to +2.25] (current: 18)
Cyncier Levett (Senior -> 5th Year, age 22)
Expected total growth: +13.5
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Shooting
Top expected gains:
Help Defense : +0.89 [-1.36 to +3.13] (current: 10)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.88 [-1.37 to +3.13] (current: 11)
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.74 [-1.54 to +3.02] (current: 13)
Defensive Rebounding : +0.63 [-1.50 to +2.76] (current: 5)
Passing : +0.61 [-1.54 to +2.75] (current: 11)
Lowest expected changes:
Basketball IQ : +0.12 [-1.77 to +2.01] (current: 10)
Speed : +0.10 [-1.98 to +2.17] (current: 16)
Foul Drawing : -0.20 [-3.65 to +3.25] (current: 18)
Arlon Sanderson (Junior -> Senior, age 22)
Expected total growth: +12.8
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Shooting, Perimeter Defense
Top expected gains:
Foul Drawing : +2.05 [-1.40 to +5.50] (current: 9)
Inside Shooting : +0.79 [-1.60 to +3.18] (current: 14)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.74 [-1.51 to +2.99] (current: 15)
Help Defense : +0.72 [-1.53 to +2.97] (current: 9)
Defensive Rebounding : +0.66 [-1.47 to +2.79] (current: 9)
Lowest expected changes:
Free Throw Shooting : -0.01 [-2.33 to +2.32] (current: 19)
Playmaking : -0.01 [-2.17 to +2.16] (current: 14)
Isolation Execution : -0.06 [-2.27 to +2.15] (current: 15)
Tymon Gathers (Freshman -> Sophomore, age 18)
Expected total growth: +7.0
Best focus areas: Shooting, Perimeter Defense, Post Defense
Top expected gains:
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.54 [-1.74 to +2.82] (current: 5)
Foul Drawing : +0.53 [-2.92 to +3.97] (current: 9)
Free Throw Shooting : +0.44 [-1.88 to +2.77] (current: 12)
Gravity : +0.32 [-1.90 to +2.54] (current: 6)
Pick & Roll Execution : +0.29 [-1.88 to +2.45] (current: 6)
Lowest expected changes:
Speed : +0.09 [-1.98 to +2.17] (current: 6)
Self-Creation : +0.06 [-2.28 to +2.40] (current: 16)
Basketball IQ : +0.04 [-1.85 to +1.93] (current: 11)
Akintoye Sigler (Freshman -> Sophomore, age 19)
Expected total growth: +6.6
Best focus areas: Shooting, Athletics, Post Defense
Top expected gains:
Inside Shooting : +0.88 [-1.51 to +3.26] (current: 11)
Finishing : +0.44 [-1.87 to +2.75] (current: 8)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.42 [-1.82 to +2.67] (current: 5)
Athleticism : +0.41 [-1.84 to +2.65] (current: 6)
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.39 [-1.89 to +2.67] (current: 11)
Lowest expected changes:
Endurance : -0.01 [-2.25 to +2.23] (current: 16)
Ball Handling : -0.03 [-2.10 to +2.04] (current: 1)
Foul Drawing : -0.60 [-4.05 to +2.85] (current: 17)
Sai Iruafemi (Freshman -> Sophomore, age 18)
Expected total growth: +6.0
Best focus areas: Shooting, Perimeter Defense, Playmaking
Top expected gains:
Inside Shooting : +1.01 [-1.37 to +3.40] (current: 10)
Help Defense : +0.45 [-1.80 to +2.70] (current: 8)
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.41 [-1.88 to +2.69] (current: 10)
Finishing : +0.34 [-1.97 to +2.65] (current: 11)
Basketball IQ : +0.28 [-1.61 to +2.16] (current: 5)
Lowest expected changes:
Pick & Roll Execution : +0.00 [-2.16 to +2.17] (current: 15)
Ball Dominance : -0.06 [-2.18 to +2.06] (current: 17)
Speed : -0.08 [-2.15 to +2.00] (current: 14)
Izayah Coddington (Sophomore -> Junior, age 20)
Expected total growth: +5.4
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Shooting
Top expected gains:
Foul Drawing : +1.84 [-1.61 to +5.29] (current: 9)
Help Defense : +0.44 [-1.81 to +2.68] (current: 8)
Inside Shooting : +0.37 [-2.02 to +2.76] (current: 14)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.35 [-1.90 to +2.59] (current: 10)
Finishing : +0.34 [-1.97 to +2.65] (current: 10)
Lowest expected changes:
Gravity : -0.12 [-2.34 to +2.10] (current: 19)
Ball Dominance : -0.14 [-2.26 to +1.98] (current: 19)
Isolation Execution : -0.19 [-2.40 to +2.01] (current: 18)
Tyjuan Shelby (Freshman -> Sophomore, age 19)
Expected total growth: +4.0
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Shooting
Top expected gains:
Mid-Range Shooting : +0.42 [-1.87 to +2.70] (current: 10)
Help Defense : +0.40 [-1.85 to +2.65] (current: 9)
Foul Drawing : +0.37 [-3.07 to +3.82] (current: 10)
Off-Ball Defense : +0.34 [-1.91 to +2.59] (current: 10)
Defensive Rebounding : +0.32 [-1.81 to +2.45] (current: 2)
Lowest expected changes:
Endurance : -0.05 [-2.29 to +2.20] (current: 17)
First Step : -0.06 [-2.19 to +2.08] (current: 17)
Quickness : -0.26 [-2.51 to +1.99] (current: 19)
Stanislav Kunchik (Sophomore -> Junior, age 21)
Expected total growth: +3.3
Best focus areas: Post Defense, Rebounding, Shooting
Top expected gains:
Inside Shooting : +0.53 [-1.86 to +2.91] (current: 13)
Pick & Roll Execution : +0.46 [-1.71 to +2.62] (current: 6)
Foul Drawing : +0.44 [-3.01 to +3.89] (current: 19)
Defensive Rebounding : +0.42 [-1.71 to +2.55] (current: 9)
Finishing : +0.40 [-1.91 to +2.71] (current: 8)
Lowest expected changes:
Playmaking : -0.20 [-2.36 to +1.97] (current: 14)
Free Throw Shooting : -0.28 [-2.61 to +2.05] (current: 18)
Basketball IQ : -0.36 [-2.24 to +1.53] (current: 17)
Team Analysis
3 reports
Lineup Analysis
Fresh
SIUE 5-man lineup combinations ranked by net rating with offensive/defensive splits
Best lineup: +55.8 (14 min) — Bacari Medrano, Deng Niang, Japhet Wadley, Julius Samuels, O....
Overview
CJBL Lineup Analysis
SIUE COUGARS — 51 five-man lineups (>= 5.0 min)
# Minutes GP Net/100 Off/100 Def/100 Players
1 73.5 8 -17.4 99.4 116.8 Cyncier Levett, Izayah Coddington, Loyd Robinzine, Quion Sliwoski, Tabari Totten (avg Impact: 49)
2 60.5 7 -22.0 81.1 103.1 Arlon Sanderson, Canyon Jihad, Izayah Coddington, Loyd Robinzine, Tabari Totten (avg Impact: 48)
3 44.1 9 -4.8 96.6 101.4 Arkel Topercer, Canyon Jihad, Izayah Coddington, Quion Sliwoski, Sai Iruafemi (avg Impact: 46)
4 25.2 4 +29.6 112.1 82.5 Izayah Coddington, Loyd Robinzine, Quion Sliwoski, Stanislav Kunchik, Tabari Totten (avg Impact: 50)
5 20.0 5 -34.6 85.1 119.6 Akintoye Sigler, Arlon Sanderson, Canyon Jihad, Stanislav Kunchik, Tyjuan Shelby (avg Impact: 47)
6 19.8 5 +0.0 94.4 94.4 Arkel Topercer, Canyon Jihad, Cyncier Levett, Izayah Coddington, Quion Sliwoski (avg Impact: 48)
7 18.7 3 -28.6 85.7 114.3 Arkel Topercer, Canyon Jihad, Izayah Coddington, Loyd Robinzine, Quion Sliwoski (avg Impact: 47)
8 17.1 4 -24.9 62.3 87.2 Akintoye Sigler, Arlon Sanderson, Canyon Jihad, Sai Iruafemi, Tyjuan Shelby (avg Impact: 44)
9 16.9 2 -25.3 82.1 107.3 Akintoye Sigler, Canyon Jihad, Sai Iruafemi, Stanislav Kunchik, Tyjuan Shelby (avg Impact: 46)
10 16.0 6 +23.3 113.2 89.9 Arkel Topercer, Cyncier Levett, Izayah Coddington, Quion Sliwoski, Tabari Totten (avg Impact: 51)
11 14.5 4 -29.4 99.4 128.8 Akintoye Sigler, Canyon Jihad, Cyncier Levett, Izayah Coddington, Loyd Robinzine (avg Impact: 45)
12 14.3 1 +55.8 122.7 66.9 Bacari Medrano, Deng Niang, Japhet Wadley, Julius Samuels, Ochai Gustys (avg Impact: 56)
13 14.1 5 +3.8 68.0 64.2 Arlon Sanderson, Loyd Robinzine, Quion Sliwoski, Stanislav Kunchik, Tabari Totten (avg Impact: 50)
14 13.6 2 +19.7 90.5 70.8 Arlon Sanderson, Quion Sliwoski, Sai Iruafemi, Stanislav Kunchik, Tabari Totten (avg Impact: 50)
15 13.1 7 -24.4 105.6 130.0 Canyon Jihad, Izayah Coddington, Loyd Robinzine, Quion Sliwoski, Sai Iruafemi (avg Impact: 45)
Best net rating (>= 10 min): +55.8 (14 min) — Bacari Medrano, Deng Niang, Japhet Wadley, Julius Samuels, Ochai Gustys
Worst net rating (>= 10 min): -46.8 (10 min) — Arlon Sanderson, Canyon Jihad, Donchevell Ross, Loyd Robinzine, Sai Iruafemi
Top 2-Man Combos (>= 20 min):
Best:
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Bacari Medrano, Japhet Wadley
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Bacari Medrano, Ochai Gustys
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Deng Niang, Japhet Wadley
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Deng Niang, Ochai Gustys
+41.9 ( 28.0 min) — Japhet Wadley, Ochai Gustys
+33.9 ( 22.0 min) — Japhet Wadley, Julius Samuels
+33.9 ( 22.0 min) — Julius Samuels, Ochai Gustys
+27.1 ( 31.5 min) — Bacari Medrano, Deng Niang
+17.9 ( 86.5 min) — Quion Sliwoski, Stanislav Kunchik
+7.9 ( 20.2 min) — Cyncier Levett, Mark Mimms
Worst:
-41.9 ( 26.7 min) — Akintoye Sigler, Loyd Robinzine
-34.4 ( 41.8 min) — Sai Iruafemi, Tyjuan Shelby
-32.8 ( 21.1 min) — Akintoye Sigler, Cyncier Levett
-30.5 ( 42.0 min) — Arkel Topercer, Loyd Robinzine
-30.2 ( 42.3 min) — Akintoye Sigler, Stanislav Kunchik
Top 3-Man Combos (>= 20 min):
Best:
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Bacari Medrano, Deng Niang, Japhet Wadley
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Bacari Medrano, Deng Niang, Ochai Gustys
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Bacari Medrano, Japhet Wadley, Ochai Gustys
+60.4 ( 20.3 min) — Deng Niang, Japhet Wadley, Ochai Gustys
+33.9 ( 22.0 min) — Japhet Wadley, Julius Samuels, Ochai Gustys
+30.5 ( 35.0 min) — Izayah Coddington, Quion Sliwoski, Stanislav Kunchik
+20.6 ( 31.0 min) — Izayah Coddington, Loyd Robinzine, Stanislav Kunchik
+20.3 ( 39.3 min) — Loyd Robinzine, Quion Sliwoski, Stanislav Kunchik
+17.3 ( 21.6 min) — Quion Sliwoski, Sai Iruafemi, Stanislav Kunchik
+16.0 ( 73.3 min) — Quion Sliwoski, Stanislav Kunchik, Tabari Totten
Worst:
-41.9 ( 26.7 min) — Akintoye Sigler, Canyon Jihad, Loyd Robinzine
-40.7 ( 24.9 min) — Arlon Sanderson, Sai Iruafemi, Tyjuan Shelby
-40.6 ( 38.1 min) — Arkel Topercer, Canyon Jihad, Tabari Totten
-39.7 ( 21.5 min) — Loyd Robinzine, Quion Sliwoski, Sai Iruafemi
-37.9 ( 36.6 min) — Arkel Topercer, Canyon Jihad, Loyd Robinzine
Ovc Opponent Top Lineups
Tennessee Tech (0.631 WP) — 23 lineups
174.5 min | Net= +4.9 | Cal Lapray, DavRon Wear, Kole Hirbod, Omar Brandenberg, Romelle Woodson
118.0 min | Net= -10.4 | Cal Lapray, DavRon Wear, Kole Hirbod, Neel Sandifer, Omar Brandenberg
72.4 min | Net= +6.6 | Cal Lapray, Derreck Loewen, Mattia Quinerly, Neel Sandifer, Omar Brandenberg
72.0 min | Net= +3.7 | DavRon Wear, Jarrell Cimino, Mattia Quinerly, Neel Sandifer, Rayshawn Edmonds IV
69.0 min | Net= -10.0 | Cal Lapray, Derreck Loewen, Kole Hirbod, Omar Brandenberg, Romelle Woodson
Little Rock (0.559 WP) — 13 lineups
398.5 min | Net= +11.2 | Aaryn Kennah, Andre Groover, Johnell O'Neil, Leeandre Haak, Luiz Obasi
230.5 min | Net= +2.5 | Doyle Gerhart, KamRon Shakir, Nathanael Lester, Romeo Carta, Stuart Guidry
32.1 min | Net= +43.2 | Aaryn Kennah, Andre Groover, Doyle Gerhart, Leeandre Haak, Luiz Obasi
28.1 min | Net= -5.7 | Andre Groover, Johnell O'Neil, Leeandre Haak, Luiz Obasi, Nathanael Lester
20.8 min | Net= +0.0 | Aaryn Kennah, Andre Groover, Johnell O'Neil, KamRon Shakir, Leeandre Haak
Tennessee-Martin (0.510 WP) — 46 lineups
103.4 min | Net= +11.9 | Burak Santos-Silva, Sy Wahlen, Syre Hayden, Trinson McNealy, Xavior Hazel
68.6 min | Net= +21.8 | Courvoisier Telander, Marshall Jessop, Sy Wahlen, Syre Hayden, Xavior Hazel
36.8 min | Net= +7.2 | Courvoisier Telander, Sy Wahlen, Syre Hayden, Trinson McNealy, Xavior Hazel
35.8 min | Net= -16.4 | Dontavious Van Cleave, Marshall Jessop, Syre Hayden, Terrion Vinales, Xavior Hazel
32.0 min | Net= -25.0 | Courvoisier Telander, Sy Wahlen, Syre Hayden, Terrion Vinales, Xavior Hazel
Southern Indiana (0.439 WP) — 57 lineups
83.8 min | Net= +12.7 | Antron Riggs Abner, Braylin DeLeon, Ed Nkereuwem, Giancarlo Jaggers, Laziz Vette
50.7 min | Net= -16.8 | Antron Riggs Abner, Braylin DeLeon, Dante Cooper, Ed Nkereuwem, Laziz Vette
32.4 min | Net= -39.5 | Braylin DeLeon, Giancarlo Jaggers, Lacedrick Groce, Laziz Vette, Vacha Fredette
32.0 min | Net= -43.3 | Braylin DeLeon, Giancarlo Jaggers, Glen Bradford, Lacedrick Groce, Laziz Vette
31.2 min | Net= -12.0 | Braylin DeLeon, Eze Lucien, Giancarlo Jaggers, Glen Bradford, Laziz Vette
Tennessee State (0.426 WP) — 17 lineups
215.5 min | Net= -6.2 | Alphonzo Fingelton, Arnaud Babbitt, Clifton Ozdemir, Grady Raley-Ross, Rogdrick Rochford
161.9 min | Net= -11.5 | Alphonzo Fingelton, Arnaud Babbitt, Elkhan Bashkirov, Grady Raley-Ross, Rogdrick Rochford
91.2 min | Net= -9.4 | Alphonzo Fingelton, Arnaud Babbitt, Clifton Ozdemir, Elkhan Bashkirov, Rogdrick Rochford
89.8 min | Net= -11.3 | Aymeric Rhodes, Basil Schlundt, Elkhan Bashkirov, Jade Manon, Laurynas Lonergan
83.1 min | Net= -12.2 | Aymeric Rhodes, Basil Schlundt, Clifton Ozdemir, Grady Raley-Ross, Laurynas Lonergan
Morehead State (0.404 WP) — 28 lineups
168.1 min | Net= +7.0 | JamesOn Tereshinski, Jesse Anyaibe, Ke'Ron Dwyer, Milik Joyer, Parnell Murrer
100.6 min | Net= -13.8 | JamesOn Tereshinski, Jesse Anyaibe, Ke'Ron Dwyer, Milik Joyer, Zamir Dockery
74.3 min | Net= -5.0 | Jesse Anyaibe, Milik Joyer, Paris Ross-Miller, Rondale Moute a Bidias, Salim Sonko
52.7 min | Net= +10.1 | Ben Archibeque, JamesOn Tereshinski, Ke'Ron Dwyer, Milik Joyer, Zamir Dockery
51.5 min | Net= +36.2 | Ke'Ron Dwyer, Paris Ross-Miller, Rondale Moute a Bidias, Salim Sonko, Zamir Dockery
Eastern Illinois (0.401 WP) — 44 lineups
140.5 min | Net= +17.4 | Dayna Friel, Elpidio Sidoti, Raekwon Silvine, Setric Hankins, Tayvion Cimaglia
72.2 min | Net= -12.6 | Dayna Friel, Javen Kamakawiwo'ole, Lonnell Ostrom, Raekwon Silvine, Tayvion Cimaglia
62.6 min | Net= -0.9 | Dayna Friel, Elpidio Sidoti, Lonnell Ostrom, Raekwon Silvine, Tayvion Cimaglia
49.0 min | Net= -2.2 | Cosimo Barbieri, Dayna Friel, Demitri Dees, Elpidio Sidoti, Setric Hankins
40.6 min | Net= -21.0 | Elpidio Sidoti, Newton Mekari, Raekwon Silvine, Setric Hankins, Tayvion Cimaglia
Southeast Missouri State (0.392 WP) — 52 lineups
136.7 min | Net= -19.5 | Deantre Forte III, Durell Sturgeon, Dylen Kelm, Szymon Lobsinger, Tre'Von Karazsia
41.4 min | Net= +18.0 | Deantre Forte III, Dylen Kelm, LeRoy Gosselin, Tre'Von Karazsia, Youssef Raschke
38.1 min | Net= +9.8 | Deantre Forte III, Dylen Kelm, LeRoy Gosselin, Szymon Lobsinger, Tre'Von Karazsia
36.7 min | Net= +7.3 | Deantre Forte III, Dylen Kelm, LeRoy Gosselin, Szymon Lobsinger, Youssef Raschke
31.8 min | Net= +13.4 | Deantre Forte III, Durell Sturgeon, Dylen Kelm, Jahlen Bloch, Szymon Lobsinger
Central Arkansas (0.372 WP) — 36 lineups
183.0 min | Net= +5.0 | A.K. Longmire, Arsenio Butz, Donyell Sameh Azab, Sadarius Hartman, Tramaine Shultis
103.0 min | Net= -14.0 | Arsenio Butz, Artrel Rau, Marc Antonio Sangoyomi, Markel Longman, Tramaine Shultis
48.0 min | Net= +14.4 | A.K. Longmire, Donyell Sameh Azab, Sadarius Hartman, Toriano Suess, Zyon Herbstreit
47.8 min | Net= -3.3 | A.K. Longmire, Artrel Rau, Deonta Grafft, Markel Longman, Toriano Suess
44.7 min | Net= -15.5 | A.K. Longmire, Deonta Grafft, Donyell Sameh Azab, Sadarius Hartman, Toriano Suess
Game Win Probability
Fresh
Pre-game win probabilities from team rating differentials, home advantage, and prestige
PLAYED GAMES (retrodiction accuracy: 83%)
Cjbl Game Win Probability Model
Generated: 2026-03-19 01:28
Model Summary
Games: 4430 Features: 34 CV Accuracy: 72.8%
Cv Auc: 0.785
CV Log Loss: 0.524
Home Win Rate: 64.2%
Best C: 0.0060
Intercept: 0.4795
TOP 15 MOST IMPORTANT FEATURES (by |coefficient|)
Rank Feature Coef Direction
---- ------------------------- -------- ----------
1 prestige_diff +0.3754 + (higher helps)
2 Outside Shooting +0.1565 + (higher helps)
3 home_adv +0.1396 + (higher helps)
4 Help Defense +0.0983 + (higher helps)
5 Free Throws +0.0925 + (higher helps)
6 On-Ball Defense +0.0905 + (higher helps)
7 Inside Shooting +0.0818 + (higher helps)
8 Quickness +0.0778 + (higher helps)
9 Def Rebounding +0.0759 + (higher helps)
10 Off-Ball Defense -0.0752 - (higher hurts)
11 Off Rebounding +0.0598 + (higher helps)
12 Foul Drawing +0.0578 + (higher helps)
13 Self-Creation +0.0572 + (higher helps)
14 Rim Protection +0.0564 + (higher helps)
15 Speed -0.0555 - (higher hurts)
Calibration
Predicted Actual Count
0.064 0.102 49
0.151 0.116 190
0.254 0.284 236
0.354 0.373 314
0.452 0.481 403
0.553 0.555 517
0.653 0.616 691
0.751 0.754 699
0.853 0.852 721
0.942 0.959 610
Siue Game Predictions
PLAYED GAMES (retrodiction accuracy: 83%)
Game Day Opponent Site P(W) Result OK?
1 1 Milwaukee Away 0.13 L Y
2 5 Illinois-Chicago Away 0.04 L Y
3 10 Western Illinois Home 0.12 L Y
4 13 Manhattan Away 0.12 L Y
5 16 Campbell Away 0.06 L Y
6 21 Providence Neutral 0.33 L Y
7 23 Queens Neutral 0.65 W Y
8 25 Bryant Neutral 0.66 W Y
9 27 Northern Kentucky Away 0.01 L Y
10 30 Albany (NY) Away 0.28 L Y
11 33 Saint Louis Home 0.20 L Y
12 37 Robert Morris Home 0.70 L N
13 39 Marshall Away 0.12 W N
14 41 UC-San Diego Home 0.38 W N
15 44 Austin Peay Away 0.22 L Y
16 52 Southern Illinois Away 0.04 L Y
17 55 Boston College Home 0.44 L Y
18 59 Bryant Neutral 0.66 L N
19 63 Little Rock Away 0.05 L Y
20 67 Tennessee-Martin Away 0.06 L Y
21 71 Tennessee State Home 0.17 L Y
22 75 Southeast Missouri State Away 0.02 L Y
23 79 Tennessee Tech Away 0.06 L Y
24 83 Morehead State Home 0.32 L Y
Remaining Schedule
Game Day Opponent Site P(W) Verdict
25 87 Central Arkansas Home 0.06 Underdog
26 91 Southern Indiana Home 0.18 Underdog
27 95 Little Rock Home 0.15 Underdog
28 99 Eastern Illinois Home 0.77 Favored
29 103 Tennessee-Martin Home 0.18 Underdog
30 107 Tennessee State Away 0.06 Underdog
31 111 Southeast Missouri State Home 0.07 Underdog
32 115 Tennessee Tech Home 0.18 Underdog
33 119 Morehead State Away 0.12 Underdog
34 123 Central Arkansas Away 0.02 Underdog
35 127 Southern Indiana Away 0.06 Underdog
36 133 Eastern Illinois Away 0.49 Toss-up
Season Outlook
Expected remaining wins: 2.3 Predicted final record: 6-30 Pessimistic (10th pct): 5-31 Median: 6-30 Optimistic (90th pct): 8-28
Strategy Interaction Analysis (Siue)
n=24 is very small for causal inference. Treat as exploratory.
Pace Breakdown:
Pace Games W% Margin ORtg DRtg
Balanced 8 0.125 -8.1 108.5 120.4
Slower 4 0.250 -11.2 107.6 123.0
Zone Frequency Breakdown:
Zone Val Games W% Margin DRtg
2 12 0.167 -9.2 121.3
Recruiting Commitment Model
Fresh
Predicted commitment probability by prestige tier with SIUE-specific expected value rankings
Very Low : n= 140, avg_stars=1.6, avg_value=62, avg_morey=67
Cjbl Recruiting Commitment Probability Model
Recruits in database: 22,349 Freshmen matched to recruit DB: 1680 Prestige tiers: 9
Prestige Commitment Model
Training accuracy: 26.7%
5-fold CV accuracy: 25.0% (+/- 0.9%)
Feature Importance (avg |coefficient| across classes):
1. stars 0.2990
2. value_score 0.2013
3. rpg 0.1785
4. ppg 0.1678
5. apg 0.1644
6. morey_score 0.1500
7. ftr 0.1220
8. efg 0.1206
9. per 0.0907
10. hgt_inches 0.0761
Prestige Tier Distributions:
Extremely Low : n= 398, avg_stars=1.3, avg_value=62, avg_morey=65
Stars: 1*:325, 2*:33, 3*:33, 4*:7
Avg distance: 620 mi (median 652)
Very Low : n= 140, avg_stars=1.6, avg_value=62, avg_morey=67
Stars: 1*:95, 2*:18, 3*:21, 4*:6
Avg distance: 444 mi (median 413)
Low : n= 165, avg_stars=1.3, avg_value=62, avg_morey=67
Stars: 1*:136, 2*:11, 3*:13, 4*:5
Avg distance: 551 mi (median 530)
Below Average : n= 258, avg_stars=1.6, avg_value=65, avg_morey=67
Stars: 1*:189, 2*:17, 3*:26, 4*:26
Avg distance: 627 mi (median 771)
Average : n= 186, avg_stars=1.8, avg_value=64, avg_morey=68
Stars: 1*:125, 2*:12, 3*:20, 4*:29
Avg distance: 428 mi (median 358)
Above Average : n= 215, avg_stars=1.9, avg_value=68, avg_morey=70
Stars: 1*:124, 2*:21, 3*:37, 4*:33
Avg distance: 519 mi (median 498)
High : n= 142, avg_stars=2.2, avg_value=68, avg_morey=72
Stars: 1*:71, 2*:12, 3*:21, 4*:33, 5*:5
Avg distance: 500 mi (median 435)
Very High : n= 101, avg_stars=2.4, avg_value=70, avg_morey=71
Stars: 1*:49, 2*:9, 3*:10, 4*:18, 5*:15
Avg distance: 541 mi (median 486)
Extremely High : n= 75, avg_stars=2.3, avg_value=71, avg_morey=69
Stars: 1*:41, 2*:2, 3*:10, 4*:14, 5*:8
Avg distance: 479 mi (median 482)
Cv R2: 0.608
Training samples: 318
Coefficients:
stars -2.4695
hgt_inches -0.2518
apg -0.2071
rpg +0.1513
ppg +0.1270
morey_score -0.1099
value_score +0.1038
distance_miles +0.0906
efg +0.0611
Siue Expected Recruiting Value -- Top 50
Rank Name Pos Stars Value P(Get) EV Dist Interest Char ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Pooh Banta SF/PF 1 80.9 0.63 50.6 989 Unknown CLEAN 2 Jerami Hemingway SG 1 79.7 0.61 49.0 - - UNKNOWN 3 Hassani Hillesland SG 1 76.3 0.64 48.8 - - UNKNOWN 4 Octreyvius Ridnour SG 1 82.5 0.59 48.6 206 Very High FAIL 5 Velton Markosian SG 1 80.2 0.60 47.9 - - UNKNOWN 6 Keanau Uzodinma SG 1 74.8 0.64 47.6 - - UNKNOWN 7 Dami Hume PG 1 72.6 0.65 46.9 - - UNKNOWN 8 Vladislav Flott SG 1 79.5 0.59 46.7 - - UNKNOWN 9 Bash Omlid SG/PG 1 77.0 0.61 46.6 684 Unknown FAIL 10 JaQuel Dortch SG/SF 1 78.9 0.59 46.6 - - UNKNOWN 11 Caelan Holgorsen SG 1 72.7 0.64 46.6 - - UNKNOWN 12 Thijin Mullins SG 1 75.5 0.62 46.5 - - UNKNOWN 13 T.L. Jalloh SG/SF 1 80.0 0.58 46.2 649 Unknown FAIL 14 Lenny Colletta SG 1 72.8 0.63 46.1 294 High FAIL 15 Pooh Levitch SG 1 79.5 0.58 46.1 1009 Unknown FAIL 16 Ollie Jimerson SG 1 77.4 0.59 46.0 - - UNKNOWN 17 Tyreese Aaberg C 1 86.6 0.53 46.0 - - UNKNOWN 18 Kadin Holmes SG 1 74.8 0.61 45.9 242 Very High FAIL 19 Duje Joeckel PG 1 84.2 0.54 45.8 818 Unknown FAIL 20 Cal Glynn SF/PF 1 77.7 0.59 45.7 468 High FAIL 21 Nnamdi Matthew SF 1 79.9 0.57 45.5 - - UNKNOWN 22 Iman Ikezu SG 1 72.1 0.63 45.4 172 Unknown FAIL 23 Sam Downes SG 1 73.8 0.61 45.4 - - UNKNOWN 24 Speedy Kincaid SF 1 81.9 0.55 45.4 334 Unknown FAIL 25 Dalante Dugat SG 1 76.9 0.59 45.3 363 Unknown FAIL 26 Erique Glasco SG 1 69.5 0.65 45.2 - - UNKNOWN 27 Teagan McCadden SF 1 75.6 0.60 45.2 137 Very High FAIL 28 Georges Guidry SF/SG 1 85.4 0.53 45.1 - - UNKNOWN 29 Admassu Abdallah SF 1 80.2 0.56 45.1 341 Above Average FAIL 30 Darold Shaw PG/SG 1 75.3 0.60 45.0 547 Unknown FAIL 31 Agunwa Laitsas SG 1 74.3 0.60 44.9 304 Unknown FAIL 32 Jaleni Craciun PG/SG 1 74.8 0.60 44.8 35 Very High FAIL 33 Azeez Buchanon SF 1 81.2 0.55 44.7 923 Unknown FAIL 34 Rashaad Roebuck SG 1 70.9 0.63 44.6 - - UNKNOWN 35 Lionheart Noble SG 1 74.8 0.60 44.6 - - UNKNOWN 36 Damontre Samb SG 1 75.5 0.59 44.6 - - UNKNOWN 37 Sam Croswell SF 1 79.1 0.56 44.5 - - UNKNOWN 38 Fua Oates SG 1 74.1 0.60 44.5 - - UNKNOWN 39 Markeith Wimbley SG/PG 1 76.4 0.58 44.5 719 Unknown FAIL 40 Dedrick Poutasi PG/SG 1 81.9 0.54 44.3 - - UNKNOWN 41 Ariston Simonsen SG 1 68.4 0.65 44.3 - - UNKNOWN 42 Flenard Gulley SG 1 75.0 0.59 44.3 - - UNKNOWN 43 Moulaye Ragone SG 1 71.4 0.62 44.2 - - UNKNOWN 44 Langston Worsham SG 1 70.3 0.63 44.2 - - UNKNOWN 45 Yunus Bleecher SG 1 73.9 0.60 44.2 - - UNKNOWN 46 Willy Muma SF 1 78.7 0.56 44.0 - - UNKNOWN 47 Khalief Lebsack SG 1 73.0 0.60 44.0 266 Unknown FAIL 48 Daiquan McQueeney SG 1 72.2 0.61 44.0 - - UNKNOWN 49 Tyrique David SF/PF 1 72.1 0.61 44.0 528 Unknown FAIL 50 Ben Monday SG 1 73.4 0.60 44.0 - - UNKNOWN
Key Findings
1. 703/1680 (42%) of freshmen commit to Low/Very Low/Extremely Low prestige schools 2. Very Low prestige commits average 1.56 stars and 61.6 value score 3. Extremely Low star distribution (n=398): 1*: 325, 2*: 33, 3*: 33, 4*: 7 4. Very Low star distribution (n=140): 1*: 95, 2*: 18, 3*: 21, 4*: 6 5. Low star distribution (n=165): 1*: 136, 2*: 11, 3*: 13, 4*: 5 6. Very Low commits average 444 miles from school (median 413) 7. 'stars' is the strongest predictor of prestige-tier commitment (avg |coef| = 0.299) 8. Prestige model CV accuracy: 25.0% (5-fold, 1680 training samples) 9. SIUE interest strongest predictor: 'stars' (coef = -2.470) 10. 50 recruits have value_score >= 60 AND P(gettable) >= 50% -- realistic SIUE targets 11. 1 of top-50 expected-value recruits pass character screening (CLEAN)
Opponent Scouting
26 opponents
26 Opponents Scouted
Fresh
Morgado framework defensive settings for all SIUE opponents. Click to view compact table.
Mar 19, 2026
| Team | Conf | Record | PPG | OPP PPG | Prestige | Top Scorer | Key Setting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas | OVC | 9-14 | 77.9 | 119.1 | Extremely Low | A.K. Longmire | Man-to-Man |
| Eastern Illinois | OVC | 11-13 | 76.8 | 115.2 | Very Low | Raekwon Silvine | Man-to-Man |
| Little Rock | OVC | 18-6 | 80.0 | 105.2 | Above Average | Luiz Obasi | Man-to-Man |
| Morehead State | OVC | 17-7 | 81.5 | 112.5 | Below Average | Milik Joyer | Man-to-Man |
| Southeast Missouri State | OVC | 7-17 | 74.8 | 116.0 | Extremely Low | Deantre Forte III | Man-to-Man |
| Southern Indiana | OVC | 5-19 | 71.5 | 116.5 | Extremely Low | Laziz Vette | Man-to-Man |
| Tennessee State | OVC | 4-20 | 73.0 | 119.6 | Very Low | Grady Raley-Ross | Man-to-Man |
| Tennessee Tech | OVC | 13-10 | 77.1 | 111.5 | Above Average | Omar Brandenberg | Man-to-Man |
| Tennessee-Martin | OVC | 11-13 | 77.4 | 111.4 | Below Average | Xavior Hazel | Man-to-Man |
| Albany (NY) | AEC | 10-14 | 73.8 | 113.9 | Very Low | Mandrell Polson | Man-to-Man |
| Austin Peay | A-Sun | 12-12 | 73.4 | 111.4 | Low | Tre-Vaughn Venegas | Man-to-Man |
| Boston College | ACC | 11-14 | 74.0 | 112.6 | Below Average | Marr Queary | Man-to-Man |
| Bryant | NEC | 14-10 | 70.6 | 110.7 | Extremely Low | Ochai Gustys | Man-to-Man |
| Campbell | Big South | 20-4 | 82.8 | 111.2 | Above Average | Coron Fountain | Man-to-Man |
| Illinois-Chicago | MVC | 14-10 | 74.2 | 105.6 | Below Average | Ahmaad Sweeting | Man-to-Man |
| Manhattan | MAAC | 14-10 | 79.2 | 113.3 | Average | Antywan Aka | Man-to-Man |
| Marshall | Sun Belt | 16-8 | 80.4 | 108.5 | Average | Dalante Radovic | Man-to-Man |
| Milwaukee | Horizon | 11-13 | 68.4 | 111.6 | Average | Kyre' Noland | Man-to-Man |
| Northern Kentucky | Horizon | 17-7 | 75.1 | 107.7 | Above Average | Erickson Ferch | Man-to-Man |
| Providence | Big East | 15-9 | 73.7 | 107.7 | Below Average | Julius Shultis | Man-to-Man |
| Queens | A-Sun | 13-12 | 70.8 | 111.3 | Extremely Low | Bruno Meadows | Man-to-Man |
| Robert Morris | Horizon | 9-15 | 73.9 | 114.4 | Extremely Low | Vernell Geiger | Man-to-Man |
| Saint Louis | A-10 | 14-11 | 74.2 | 106.0 | High | Raine Bigham | Man-to-Man |
| Southern Illinois | MVC | 14-11 | 73.8 | 107.8 | Below Average | Lonny Tran | Man-to-Man |
| UC-San Diego | Big West | 12-12 | 76.1 | 115.9 | Extremely Low | Jabrille Douthit | Man-to-Man |
| Western Illinois | Summit | 5-17 | 71.3 | 117.6 | Very Low | Tyshon Osayande | Man-to-Man |