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Adrian Schwartz

Adrian Schwartz

SG

Cleveland Giants · Secondary Creator / Chaser

College: Texas Tech · Prosper, Texas

Lengthy two-way shooting wing

An elite two-way shooting guard averaging 16.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.5 APG. Excels in athleticism (19 rating, 100th pctl), stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and free throws (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by strength (6 rating, 20th pctl) and ball dominance (9 rating, 25th pctl).

67
Impact
61
Future
4.5
CA
3.5
PA
30
Age
$22.0M
Salary
3.829
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(12)
O Sniper (S) O Floater Game (S) O Slasher (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Posterizer (B) D Interceptor (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Franz Wagner
NBA Comparison
Franz Wagner
2024-25
86%
Style
86%
Level
6'10" · 220lbs
24.2/5.7/4.7 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer 3PT specialist
Alt comp
Jayson Tatum
2024-25 · 80%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.2
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 30 (1yr away)
Future Value: 61
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 16.3 85
RPG 5.3 75
APG 3.5 76
SPG 1.5 84
BPG 0.5 56
MPG 28.6 68
Shooting
FG% 0.481 62
3P% 0.419 85
FT% 0.898 87
TS% 0.628 87
Impact
Impact 67 91
Off Impact 65 91
Def Impact 58 78
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 19.4 92
WS 7.1 89
Box Score Impact 4.9 95
Value Over Replacement 3.8 95
Positional BSI 1.88 +3.02

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 16 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 7 (coef=0.0333)
Rim Protection 7 (coef=0.0168)
Ball Dominance 9 (coef=0.0152)
Shoot Off Dribble 4 (coef=0.0134)
Playmaking 7 (coef=0.0101)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 16.3 17.1 -0.8
RPG 5.3 6.3 -1.0
APG 3.5 2.1 +1.4
SPG 1.5 1.4 +0.1
BPG 0.5 0.7 -0.2
TPG - 1.8
FG% 0.481 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.419 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.898 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
53:47%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong On-Court Impact. Hidden intangibles add significant value beyond visible skills.

67 / 100 #44 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +1.18z
On-Court Impact +2.94 (Off +2.69, Def +0.25)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.84z
Win Model Score: 3.8144
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
65
#46
Defense
58
#105
Confidence
99%
2148 min
Position Model (SG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.88 Actual: 4.9 +3.02
Significantly outperforming SG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

61 / 100 #83 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 70
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 70
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 40
Future Value below current Impact (67) — may be approaching decline

League Percentile Profile

PPG
81
TS%
90
BPM
95
WS/48
89
RAPM
85
USG%
71
PA/100
82
BCI
60

Shot Quality

PA/100
+7.90
Points Added
+90.2
Selection
1.007
FGA
1142
Zone Breakdown
Rim
51.4%
329 FGA (29%)
Short Midrange
38.5%
148 FGA (13%)
Long Midrange
50.0%
98 FGA (9%)
Above Break Three
40.6%
567 FGA (50%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
10.26
Load Tier
Elite
Eff Delta
+5.1%
USG%
22.0%
Tendencies
Salary
$22.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
Player Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.541

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $22,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.814
Expected WM
3.671
Dev Residual
+0.1431
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.953
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 97.1% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Davor Giffey Austin Rockets 23 3.0 96.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Decensae Nyeko Portland Lumberjacks 0 2.5 96.3% Glue Guy / Mobile Big
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 96.2% Glue Guy / Chaser
S
Solomone Bran Oakland Tritons 0 3.0 95.7% Stationary Shooter / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
14.2
Years to Peak
1
Current Win Value
14.2
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.981
Projected Peak WV
2.981
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 12 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 9 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 15 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 16 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 3 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 7 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 19 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 19 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 15 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 6 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 9 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 14 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 16 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 19 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 17 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 4 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 7 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 7 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 18 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 15 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 13 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 19 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 18 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 17 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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