Martynas Rutkauskas

Charlotte Drones · Secondary Creator / Chaser

Lentvaris, Lithuania

Rangy 3-and-d forward

A rotation shooting guard averaging 3.1 PPG, 0.6 RPG, 0.6 APG. Excels in endurance (15 rating, 84th pctl), foul drawing (16 rating, 79th pctl) and athleticism (15 rating, 74th pctl). Limited by rim protection (1 rating, 7th pctl) and strength (4 rating, 11th pctl).

Impact

Future

3.0

Age

$3.1M

Salary

2.986

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(1)

D Interceptor (B)

NBA Comparison

Poor Man's Coby White

2024-25

84%

Style

84%

Level

6'5" · 195lbs

20.4/3.7/4.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Efficient scorer

Alt comp

Jaden Ivey

2024-25 · 80%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 13.2

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (8yr away)

Future Value: 47

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	3.1	14
RPG	0.6	7
APG	0.6	17
SPG	0.3	26
BPG	0.1	33
MPG	6.7	10
Shooting
FG%	0.5	70
3P%	0.35	50
FT%	0.882	80
TS%	0.61	78
Impact
Impact	48	45
Off Impact	51	57
Def Impact	46	33
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	15.5	61
WS	0.6	22
Box Score Impact	-0.3	45
Value Over Replacement	0.1	35
Positional BSI	-0.52	+0.22

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

Spacing 14 (coef=0.0196)

Stealing 15 (coef=0.0145)

Foul Drawing 16 (coef=0.0102)

First Step 14 (coef=0.0112)

Endurance 15 (coef=0.0098)

Weaknesses

Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 10 (coef=0.0226)

Rim Protection 1 (coef=0.0168)

Offensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0160)

Ball Dominance 9 (coef=0.0152)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	3.1	0.2	+2.9
RPG	0.6	-0.3	+0.9
APG	0.6	1.0	-0.4
SPG	0.3	0.5	-0.1
BPG	0.1	-0.3	+0.4
TPG	-	0.1
FG%	0.5	0.5	+0.0
3P%	0.35	0.3	+0.1
FT%	0.882	0.5	+0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency

81:19%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%

Wing 80%

Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Limited to 261 min — score regressed toward league average.

48 / 100 #260 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.41z

On-Court Impact +1.06 (Off +1.31, Def -0.25)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.20z

Win Model Score: 2.9729

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#209

Defense

#313

Confidence

33%

261 min

Position Model (SG)

Predicted Positional BSI: -0.52 Actual: -0.3 +0.22

Performing in line with SG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

47 / 100 #327 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 41

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 40

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 61

Future Value in line with current Impact (48)

Shot Quality

PA/100

+10.79

Points Added

+10.2

Selection

0.987

FGA

Zone Breakdown

Rim

63.3%

30 FGA (32%)

Above Break Three

35.0%

40 FGA (42%)

Short Midrange

44.4%

18 FGA (19%)

Long Midrange

57.1%

7 FGA (7%)

Tendencies

Salary

$3.1M

Years Left

Expiry

2052

Option

Team Option

Status

Trade Value

0.386

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$3,150,000
2051-52	$3,150,000
Total Owed	$6,300,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

2.973

Expected WM

3.293

Dev Residual

-0.3201

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.397

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

0.0

Dev Status

Behind Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
D	Darius Blackwell	New Orleans Hurricanes	21	4.0	98.5%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
T	Toso Benhayoune	Salt Lake City Saints	24	4.0	98.1%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M	Marcus Pendleton	Oakland Tritons	21	3.0	97.9%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
Q	Quintin Tomlinson	Baltimore Bullets	24	4.0	97.8%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
D	Denzel Cruz	Dallas Predators	21	4.0	97.4%	Slasher / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

13.2

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

11.3

Confidence

LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.102

Projected Peak WV

2.472

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.370

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	16	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	15	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	15	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	9	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	13	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	14	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	3	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	10	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	15	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	13	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	10	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	5	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	4	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	10	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	14	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	14	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	14	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	14	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	12	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	15	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	9	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	1	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	16	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	4	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	15	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	15	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	14	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	14	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	14	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	14	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	15	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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