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Denzel Cruz

Denzel Cruz

PG

Dallas Predators · Slasher / Chaser

College: Marquette · Columbus, Mississippi

Clutch shoot-and-defend wing

A fringe scoring point guard averaging 16.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.9 APG. Excels in isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl), first step (17 rating, 95th pctl) and gravity (18 rating, 92nd pctl). Limited by rim protection (1 rating, 7th pctl) and strength (6 rating, 20th pctl).

29
Impact
40
Future
4.0
CA
3.5
PA
21
Age
$21.7M
Salary
2.984
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(6)
O Gravity Generator (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Slasher (B) O Floater Game (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) D Interceptor (B)
Coby White
NBA Comparison
Coby White
2024-25
85%
Style
85%
Level
6'5" · 195lbs
20.4/3.7/4.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Alt comp
Jaylen Brown
2024-25 · 80%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.6
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (10yr away)
Future Value: 40
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 16.8 87
RPG 2.8 43
APG 3.9 80
SPG 1.4 80
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 32.7 90
Shooting
FG% 0.464 50
3P% 0.371 60
FT% 0.814 47
TS% 0.554 34
Impact
Impact 29 6
Off Impact 44 30
Def Impact 23 1
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 13.2 37
WS 1.0 27
Box Score Impact -3.0 16
Value Over Replacement -0.6 8
Positional BSI -0.20 -2.80

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Ball Dominance 15 (coef=0.0152)
First Step 17 (coef=0.0112)
Foul Drawing 16 (coef=0.0102)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 5 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 7 (coef=0.0226)
Spacing 9 (coef=0.0196)
Rim Protection 1 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0160)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 16.8 17.7 -0.9
RPG 2.8 3.9 -1.1
APG 3.9 4.0 -0.1
SPG 1.4 1.4 +0.0
BPG 0.1 0.4 -0.3
TPG - 1.9
FG% 0.464 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.371 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.814 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
79:21%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Replacement-level score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict. Offense is the primary value driver.

29 / 100 #415 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.12z
On-Court Impact -2.73 (Off -0.71, Def -2.02)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.90z
Win Model Score: 2.9676
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
44
#324
Defense
23
#431
Confidence
100%
2485 min
Position Model (SG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.20 Actual: -3.0 -2.80
Significantly underperforming SG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

40 / 100 #421 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 45
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 44
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 30
Future Value above current Impact (29) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
84
TS%
30
BPM
14
WS/48
7
RAPM
17
USG%
79
PA/100
63
BCI
52

Shot Quality

PA/100
+2.13
Points Added
+24.3
Selection
0.954
FGA
1139
Zone Breakdown
Rim
55.1%
454 FGA (40%)
Long Midrange
38.8%
121 FGA (11%)
Above Break Three
36.9%
339 FGA (30%)
Short Midrange
31.6%
225 FGA (20%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
9.52
Load Tier
Below Average
Eff Delta
-2.3%
USG%
23.3%
Tendencies
Salary
$21.7M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.346

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $21,716,000 Re-signed with Dallas Predators

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
2.968
Expected WM
3.066
Dev Residual
-0.0979
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Model
3.650
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-0.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
L
Luis Oliveira Oklahoma City Barons 24 4.0 98.3% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
N
Niklas Harris Houston Lightning 30 4.5 97.9% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
K
Kenny Cokley Washington Pilots 30 4.5 97.7% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M
Markquis Swoger Detroit Mustangs 0 3.0 97.7% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
D
Devin Emery New Orleans Hurricanes 29 4.5 97.7% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
14.6
Years to Peak
10
Current Win Value
11.6
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.134
Projected Peak WV
2.689
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
8
WV Growth
+0.554

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 9 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 12 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 14 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 15 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 7 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 8 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 6 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 14 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 12 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 18 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 16 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 10 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 1 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 5 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 15 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 8 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 14 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 17 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 14 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 12 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 14 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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