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Luis Oliveira

Luis Oliveira

SG

Oklahoma City Barons · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Guarulhos, Brazil

Refined 3-and-d guard

A rotation shooting guard averaging 4.8 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 2.5 APG. Excels in help defense (20 rating, 100th pctl), gravity (19 rating, 99th pctl) and foul drawing (19 rating, 98th pctl). Limited by post defense (2 rating, 15th pctl) and rim protection (2 rating, 15th pctl).

45
Impact
50
Future
4.0
CA
3.0
PA
24
Age
$1.8M
Salary
3.121
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(11)
O Gravity Generator (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Slasher (B) O Floater Game (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Floor General (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Sniper (B) O Shot Creator (B) D Help Defender (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Marcus Smart
NBA Comparison
Marcus Smart
2022-23
83%
Style
83%
Level
6'3" · 220lbs
11.5/3.1/6.3 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Ball handler
Alt comp
Kyle Lowry
2021-22 · 75%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.4
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)
Future Value: 50
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 4.8 23
RPG 1.1 14
APG 2.5 62
SPG 0.8 56
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 15.3 31
Shooting
FG% 0.428 24
3P% 0.325 37
FT% 0.78 35
TS% 0.544 27
Impact
Impact 45 33
Off Impact 56 72
Def Impact 38 12
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 11.0 21
WS 1.9 38
Box Score Impact -0.9 36
Value Over Replacement 0.3 44
Positional BSI -0.85 -0.05

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Passing 18 (coef=0.0156)
Ball Dominance 15 (coef=0.0152)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 7 (coef=0.0160)
Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 4.8 6.7 -1.9
RPG 1.1 0.3 +0.8
APG 2.5 3.2 -0.7
SPG 0.8 0.6 +0.2
BPG 0.1 -0.1 +0.2
TPG - 0.8
FG% 0.428 0.5 -0.1
3P% 0.325 0.3 +0.0
FT% 0.78 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
50:50%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 50%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by modest Win Model Score. Offense is the primary value driver.

45 / 100 #312 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.14z
On-Court Impact -0.29 (Off -0.18, Def -0.11)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.55z
Win Model Score: 3.1045
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
56
#138
Defense
38
#393
Confidence
86%
1103 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.85 Actual: -0.9 -0.05
Performing in line with PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

50 / 100 #271 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 48
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 47
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 54
Future Value above current Impact (45) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
7
TS%
22
BPM
34
WS/48
37
RAPM
56
USG%
20
PA/100
47

Shot Quality

PA/100
-1.21
Points Added
-4.1
Selection
1.012
FGA
335
Zone Breakdown
Short Midrange
31.4%
35 FGA (10%)
Above Break Three
33.1%
178 FGA (53%)
Rim
55.1%
98 FGA (29%)
Long Midrange
54.5%
22 FGA (7%)
Other
100.0%
2 FGA (1%)
Tendencies
Salary
$1.8M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.422

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $1,750,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with Oklahoma City Barons

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.104
Expected WM
3.336
Dev Residual
-0.2316
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.486
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators 21 4.0 98.3% Slasher / Chaser
N
Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars 30 4.0 97.8% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 97.3% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 97.2% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
R
Reid Frahm Cincinnati Kings 30 4.0 97.1% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
13.4
Years to Peak
6
Current Win Value
12.0
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.227
Projected Peak WV
2.483
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
5
WV Growth
+0.257

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 19 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 20 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 19 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 10 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 17 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 11 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 6 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 7 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 8 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 9 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 18 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 18 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 18 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 15 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 12 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 2 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 14 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 14 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 14 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 16 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 11 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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