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Nico Gillespie

Nico Gillespie

PG

Mexico City Jaguars · Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

College: Southern Illinois · Valders, Wisconsin

Creative 3-and-d guard

A rotation point guard averaging 4.2 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 3.4 APG. Excels in perimeter defense (20 rating, 100th pctl), finishing (19 rating, 98th pctl) and self-creation (19 rating, 98th pctl). Limited by foul drawing (7 rating, 5th pctl) and rim protection (1 rating, 7th pctl).

46
Impact
52
Future
4.0
CA
2.0
PA
30
Age
$3.2M
Salary
3.237
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(10)
O Ankle Breaker (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Slasher (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Floater Game (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Floor General (B) D Clamps (S) D Pick Dodger (B) D Interceptor (B)
Marcus Smart
NBA Comparison
Marcus Smart
2022-23
72%
Style
72%
Level
6'3" · 220lbs
11.5/3.1/6.3 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Kyle Lowry
2021-22 · 60%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 12.4
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 30 (1yr away)
Future Value: 52
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 4.2 20
RPG 1.2 16
APG 3.4 74
SPG 0.8 56
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 13.4 23
Shooting
FG% 0.366 7
3P% 0.324 37
FT% 0.882 80
TS% 0.489 7
Impact
Impact 46 37
Off Impact 49 49
Def Impact 44 24
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 13.7 43
WS 2.4 45
Box Score Impact -0.4 43
Value Over Replacement 0.5 49
Positional BSI -0.11 -0.29

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 20 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 16 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Passing 18 (coef=0.0156)
Ball Dominance 17 (coef=0.0152)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 7 (coef=0.0226)
Spacing 9 (coef=0.0196)
Rim Protection 1 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 4 (coef=0.0160)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 4.2 5.4 -1.2
RPG 1.2 -0.2 +1.4
APG 3.4 3.3 +0.1
SPG 0.8 0.7 +0.1
BPG 0.1 -0.2 +0.3
TPG - 0.6
FG% 0.366 0.5 -0.1
3P% 0.324 0.3 +0.0
FT% 0.882 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
68:32%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 50%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by solid Hidden Rating Impact.

46 / 100 #293 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.26z
On-Court Impact -0.60 (Off -1.25, Def +0.66)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.26z
Win Model Score: 3.2193
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
49
#242
Defense
44
#341
Confidence
86%
1097 min
Position Model (SG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.11 Actual: -0.4 -0.29
Performing in line with SG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

52 / 100 #234 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 51
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 51
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 54
Future Value above current Impact (46) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
4
TS%
2
BPM
41
WS/48
51
RAPM
28
USG%
30
PA/100
8
BCI
91

Shot Quality

PA/100
-12.75
Points Added
-45.9
Selection
0.975
FGA
360
Zone Breakdown
Rim
42.7%
103 FGA (29%)
Above Break Three
31.7%
186 FGA (52%)
Short Midrange
27.4%
62 FGA (17%)
Long Midrange
33.3%
9 FGA (2%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
21.58
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-8.6%
USG%
16.4%
Tendencies
Salary
$3.2M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.400

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $3,250,000 Re-signed with Mexico City Jaguars

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.219
Expected WM
3.351
Dev Residual
-0.1319
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Model
3.219
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-2.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
Z
Zach Camara Minneapolis Blizzards 30 4.5 99.5% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
D
Dantrell Blackman Louisville Colonels 24 4.0 98.4% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
O
Omari Swift Baltimore Bullets 21 3.5 98.4% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
C
Curtis de Rouen Salt Lake City Saints 0 3.0 98.3% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
L
Lloyd Bruton Los Angeles Fireballs 25 4.5 98.2% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
12.4
Years to Peak
1
Current Win Value
12.4
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.288
Projected Peak WV
2.288
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 7 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 9 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 5 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 16 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 14 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 7 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 4 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 11 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 9 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 18 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 18 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 16 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 20 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 16 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 1 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 2 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 13 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 16 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 11 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 16 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 16 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 12 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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