Dantrell Blackman

Louisville Colonels · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

College: Michigan State · Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Intelligent shoot-and-defend guard

A solid shooting guard averaging 15.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 7.3 APG. Excels in perimeter defense (19 rating, 99th pctl), ball handling (19 rating, 98th pctl) and first step (18 rating, 98th pctl). Limited by post defense (2 rating, 15th pctl) and finishing (11 rating, 18th pctl).

Impact

Future

4.0

3.5

Age

$14.0M

Salary

3.483

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(10)

O Gravity Generator (S) O Floor General (B) O Sniper (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Pop Threat (B) D Interceptor (B) D Clamps (B)

NBA Comparison

Darius Garland

2024-25

84%

Style

84%

Level

6'1" · 192lbs

20.6/2.9/6.7 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Elite playmaker Ball handler

Alt comp

Ja Morant

2024-25 · 78%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 14.2

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)

Future Value: 53

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	15.5	80
RPG	2.6	39
APG	7.3	96
SPG	1.6	89
BPG	0.1	33
MPG	31.6	83
Shooting
FG%	0.445	37
3P%	0.389	69
FT%	0.886	82
TS%	0.575	48
Impact
Impact	53	62
Off Impact	55	68
Def Impact	48	43
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	17.7	82
WS	8.1	94
Box Score Impact	1.4	65
Value Over Replacement	2.2	81
Positional BSI	0.35	+1.05

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)

3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)

Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)

Ball Dominance 17 (coef=0.0152)

Spacing 13 (coef=0.0196)

Weaknesses

Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0226)

Rim Protection 4 (coef=0.0168)

Offensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0160)

Athleticism 10 (coef=-0.0094)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	15.5	17.6	-2.1
RPG	2.6	3.5	-0.9
APG	7.3	5.8	+1.5
SPG	1.6	1.5	+0.1
BPG	0.1	0.5	-0.4
TPG	-	1.9
FG%	0.445	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.389	0.4	-0.0
FT%	0.886	0.5	+0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency

84:16%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%

Wing 80%

Big 50%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by strong Hidden Rating Impact. Hidden intangibles add significant value beyond visible skills.

53 / 100 #177 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.13z

On-Court Impact +0.37 (Off -0.50, Def +0.87)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.21z

Win Model Score: 3.4669

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#151

Defense

#264

Confidence

100%

2594 min

Position Model (PG)

Predicted Positional BSI: 0.35 Actual: 1.4 +1.05

Significantly outperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

53 / 100 #216 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 57

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 56

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 44

Future Value in line with current Impact (53)

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-5.44

Points Added

-70.6

Selection

0.966

FGA

1299

Zone Breakdown

Rim

41.0%

503 FGA (39%)

Above Break Three

38.2%

424 FGA (33%)

Short Midrange

39.2%

263 FGA (20%)

Long Midrange

35.8%

106 FGA (8%)

Other

66.7%

3 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

20.92

Load Tier

Average

Eff Delta

-0.1%

USG%

21.0%

Tendencies

Salary

$14.0M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.429

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$14,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.467

Expected WM

3.390

Dev Residual

+0.0772

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.887

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-0.5

Dev Status

Ahead of Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
N	Nico Gillespie	Mexico City Jaguars	30	4.0	98.4%	Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
D	Darius Blackwell	New Orleans Hurricanes	21	4.0	98.1%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
C	Chavis Weddle	Salt Lake City Saints	26	4.0	97.4%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
T	Toso Benhayoune	Salt Lake City Saints	24	4.0	97.4%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M	Martynas Rutkauskas	Charlotte Drones	23	3.0	97.1%	Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

14.2

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

12.9

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.447

Projected Peak WV

2.704

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.257

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	16	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	13	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	17	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	17	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	17	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	13	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	3	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	15	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	17	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	11	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	8	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	6	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	13	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	11	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	19	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	15	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	9	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	18	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	19	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	19	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	18	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	4	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	16	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	2	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	15	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	10	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	17	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	18	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	18	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	17	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	10	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	10	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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