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Niklas Harris

Niklas Harris

SG

Houston Lightning · Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

College: Florida · Irwinton, Georgia

Creative 3-and-d guard

A rotation shooting guard averaging 16.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 6.8 APG. Excels in self-creation (20 rating, 100th pctl), ball dominance (19 rating, 99th pctl) and quickness (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by strength (1 rating, 2nd pctl) and defensive rebounding (5 rating, 10th pctl).

45
Impact
54
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
30
Age
$25.9M
Salary
3.551
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(16)
O Ankle Breaker (G) O Slasher (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Lob Threat (S) O Speed Demon (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Sniper (B) O Floater Game (B) O Shot Creator (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Floor General (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) D Pick Dodger (B) D Interceptor (B)
Darius Garland
NBA Comparison
Darius Garland
2024-25
83%
Style
83%
Level
6'1" · 192lbs
20.6/2.9/6.7 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Ja Morant
2024-25 · 74%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.6
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 30 (past peak)
Future Value: 54
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 16.0 84
RPG 2.6 39
APG 6.8 95
SPG 1.7 93
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 29.1 70
Shooting
FG% 0.435 30
3P% 0.356 52
FT% 0.914 92
TS% 0.565 44
Impact
Impact 45 33
Off Impact 46 37
Def Impact 46 33
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 18.8 88
WS 5.6 81
Box Score Impact -0.1 47
Value Over Replacement 1.1 65
Positional BSI -0.14 +0.04

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)
Ball Dominance 19 (coef=0.0152)
Passing 18 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Defensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0160)
Foul Drawing 9 (coef=0.0102)
Post Execution 4 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 16.0 16.9 -0.9
RPG 2.6 2.5 +0.1
APG 6.8 4.8 +2.0
SPG 1.7 1.5 +0.2
BPG 0.2 0.4 -0.2
TPG - 1.9
FG% 0.435 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.356 0.4 -0.0
FT% 0.914 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
31:69%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by solid Win Model Score.

45 / 100 #312 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.49z
On-Court Impact -1.18 (Off -1.50, Def +0.23)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.64z
Win Model Score: 3.5328
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
46
#289
Defense
46
#313
Confidence
100%
2355 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.14 Actual: -0.1 +0.04
Performing in line with PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

54 / 100 #194 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 63
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 63
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 33
Future Value above current Impact (45) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
80
TS%
40
BPM
44
WS/48
62
RAPM
30
USG%
80
PA/100
51
BCI
88

Shot Quality

PA/100
-0.46
Points Added
-5.3
Selection
1.015
FGA
1139
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
35.3%
603 FGA (53%)
Rim
52.5%
297 FGA (26%)
Short Midrange
42.5%
127 FGA (11%)
Long Midrange
41.1%
112 FGA (10%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
20.20
Load Tier
Below Average
Eff Delta
-1.2%
USG%
23.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$25.9M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.375

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $25,900,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.533
Expected WM
3.592
Dev Residual
-0.0588
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.659
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators 21 4.0 97.9% Slasher / Chaser
M
Marcus Pendleton Oakland Tritons 21 3.0 97.2% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 97.1% Secondary Creator / Chaser
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 96.9% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 96.8% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
13.6
Years to Peak
0
Current Win Value
13.6
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.676
Projected Peak WV
2.676
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 9 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 14 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 14 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 18 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 5 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 8 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 1 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 19 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 18 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 20 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 18 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 18 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 15 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 9 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 14 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 10 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 17 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 14 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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