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Arik Mills

Arik Mills

SG

Minneapolis Blizzards · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Kentucky · Fresno, California

Intelligent shoot-and-defend wing

A solid shooting guard averaging 8.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.9 APG. Excels in self-creation (20 rating, 100th pctl), quickness (19 rating, 99th pctl) and floor spacing (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by post defense (2 rating, 15th pctl) and rim protection (2 rating, 15th pctl).

54
Impact
57
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
27
Age
$3.0M
Salary
3.433
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(17)
O Sniper (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Ankle Breaker (S) O Floater Game (S) O Pop Threat (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Slasher (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Posterizer (B) O Glass Cleaner (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Shot Creator (B) D Interceptor (S) D Pick Dodger (S) D Clamps (B) D Help Defender (B)
Paul George
NBA Comparison
Budget Paul George
2023-24
75%
Style
75%
Level
6'8" · 220lbs
22.6/5.2/3.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender
Alt comp
Franz Wagner
2024-25 · 75%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.5
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 29 (past peak)
Future Value: 57
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 8.4 49
RPG 3.2 48
APG 1.9 52
SPG 1.0 64
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 16.3 35
Shooting
FG% 0.462 48
3P% 0.4 75
FT% 0.797 41
TS% 0.599 70
Impact
Impact 54 66
Off Impact 58 77
Def Impact 47 39
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 16.9 74
WS 3.0 54
Box Score Impact 3.1 83
Value Over Replacement 1.6 72
Positional BSI 1.88 +1.22

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 19 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Passing 10 (coef=0.0156)
Foul Drawing 11 (coef=0.0102)
Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 8.4 8.9 -0.5
RPG 3.2 3.0 +0.2
APG 1.9 1.2 +0.7
SPG 1.0 0.9 +0.1
BPG 0.1 -0.1 +0.2
TPG - 0.9
FG% 0.462 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.4 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.797 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
20:80%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by solid On-Court Impact.

54 / 100 #164 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.45z
On-Court Impact +1.15 (Off +1.46, Def -0.32)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.06z
Win Model Score: 3.4179
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
58
#112
Defense
47
#290
Confidence
90%
1222 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.88 Actual: 3.1 +1.22
Significantly outperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

57 / 100 #135 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 57
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 58
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 57
Future Value in line with current Impact (54)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
36
TS%
69
BPM
81
WS/48
67
RAPM
48
USG%
61
PA/100
88
BCI
58

Shot Quality

PA/100
+9.74
Points Added
+55.5
Selection
0.992
FGA
570
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
39.7%
310 FGA (54%)
Rim
53.0%
151 FGA (26%)
Short Midrange
43.4%
83 FGA (15%)
Long Midrange
38.5%
26 FGA (5%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
10.13
Load Tier
Good
Eff Delta
+2.3%
USG%
20.8%
Tendencies
Salary
$3.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.486

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $3,000,000 Re-signed with Minneapolis Blizzards

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.418
Expected WM
3.465
Dev Residual
-0.0466
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.671
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
A
Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 30 4.5 97.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser
I
Isaiah Harris Kansas City Knights 23 3.5 97.3% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
C
Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Saints 26 4.0 96.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 96.6% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 96.5% Glue Guy / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
13.5
Years to Peak
-1
Current Win Value
13.1
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.668
Projected Peak WV
2.751
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
2
WV Growth
+0.082

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 11 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 14 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 13 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 12 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 19 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 10 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 17 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 18 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 15 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 14 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 12 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 10 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 20 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 15 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 19 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 16 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 9 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 2 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 12 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 11 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 17 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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