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Cedric Rodgers

Cedric Rodgers

SG

Los Angeles Fireballs · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Michigan State · Pickerington, Ohio

Spectacular two-way shooting wing

An elite two-way shooting guard averaging 30.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.5 APG. Excels in 30.0 PPG (100th pctl), stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by help defense (9 rating, 11th pctl) and strength (7 rating, 24th pctl).

78
Impact
52
Future
5.0
CA
5.0
PA
30
Age
$35.0M
Salary
4.020
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(12)
O Gravity Generator (S) O Sniper (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Slasher (S) O Floater Game (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Posterizer (B) D Interceptor (B)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
NBA Comparison
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2024-25
55%
Style
55%
Level
6'6" · 195lbs
32.7/5.0/6.4 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Volume scorer
Alt comp
Donovan Mitchell
2024-25 · 37%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.8
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 30 (past peak)
Future Value: 52
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 30.0 100
RPG 4.8 71
APG 4.5 85
SPG 1.6 89
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 33.0 92
Shooting
FG% 0.474 57
3P% 0.337 41
FT% 0.875 74
TS% 0.6 71
Impact
Impact 78 99
Off Impact 65 91
Def Impact 85 100
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating - 12
WS 7.1 89
Box Score Impact 5.0 96
Value Over Replacement 4.8 98
Positional BSI 3.39 +1.61

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 18 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Ball Dominance 19 (coef=0.0152)
Weaknesses
Rim Protection 5 (coef=0.0168)
Basketball IQ 12 (coef=0.0078)
Post Execution 4 (coef=0.0074)
Help Defense 9 (coef=0.0040)
Strength 7 (coef=0.0012)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 30.0 19.5 +10.5
RPG 4.8 5.7 -0.9
APG 4.5 3.8 +0.8
SPG 1.6 1.6 -0.0
BPG 0.2 0.8 -0.6
TPG - 2.1
FG% 0.474 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.337 0.4 -0.1
FT% 0.875 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
69:31%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Star-level score driven by exceptional On-Court Impact. Defense is the primary value driver.

78 / 100 #8 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +1.92z
On-Court Impact +4.77 (Off +0.69, Def +3.98)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.40z
Win Model Score: 4.0019
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
65
#46
Defense
85
#3
Confidence
100%
2670 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 3.39 Actual: 5.0 +1.61
Significantly outperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

52 / 100 #233 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 73
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 75
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 1
Future Value well below current Impact (78) — likely declining asset

League Percentile Profile

PPG
100
TS%
71
BPM
96
WS/48
72
RAPM
97
USG%
99
PA/100
46
BCI
69

Shot Quality

PA/100
-1.26
Points Added
-25.0
Selection
1.012
FGA
1985
Zone Breakdown
Rim
51.3%
878 FGA (44%)
Above Break Three
34.9%
719 FGA (36%)
Short Midrange
42.1%
309 FGA (16%)
Long Midrange
44.3%
79 FGA (4%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
12.62
Load Tier
Good
Eff Delta
+2.0%
USG%
36.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$35.0M
Years Left
4
Expiry
2054
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.640

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $35,000,000 Re-signed with Los Angeles Fireballs
2051-52 $35,000,000
2052-53 $35,000,000
2053-54 $35,000,000
Total Owed $140,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
4.002
Expected WM
3.910
Dev Residual
+0.0914
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.180
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 98.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
S
Solomone Bran Oakland Tritons 0 3.0 97.6% Stationary Shooter / Chaser
D
Davor Giffey Austin Rockets 23 3.0 97.1% Secondary Creator / Chaser
L
Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warriors 24 3.5 96.8% Slasher / Wing Stopper
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 96.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
14.8
Years to Peak
-4
Current Win Value
14.8
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
3.222
Projected Peak WV
3.222
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 9 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 19 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 18 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 10 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 19 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 14 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 16 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 7 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 10 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 17 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 18 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 19 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 15 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 9 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 5 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 13 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 12 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 18 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 17 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 13 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 17 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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