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Derrick Lynch

Derrick Lynch

SG

Seattle Thunder · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Stanford · Boise, Idaho

Intelligent complete forward

An elite two-way shooting guard averaging 32.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.2 APG. Excels in 32.3 PPG (100th pctl), stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and defensive rebounding (19 rating, 99th pctl).

79
Impact
75
Future
5.0
CA
5.0
PA
26
Age
$30.0M
Salary
4.594
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(21)
O Floater Game (S) O Lob Threat (S) O Floor General (S) O PnR Maestro (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Posterizer (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Glass Cleaner (B) O Sniper (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Slasher (B) D Interceptor (S) D Chasedown Artist (S) D Rim Eraser (B) D Paint Wall (B) D Help Defender (B) D Versatile Defender (B) D Pick Dodger (B)
Joel Embiid
NBA Comparison
Joel Embiid
2023-24
63%
Style
63%
Level
7'0" · 280lbs
34.7/11.0/5.6 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Volume scorer Efficient scorer Defensive anchor
Alt comp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2024-25 · 52%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 17.0
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 29 (past peak)
Future Value: 75
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 32.3 100
RPG 8.1 88
APG 4.2 83
SPG 1.5 84
BPG 1.6 88
MPG 37.6 100
Shooting
FG% 0.495 67
3P% 0.39 70
FT% 0.865 70
TS% 0.607 77
Impact
Impact 79 99
Off Impact 67 94
Def Impact 83 99
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 23.1 99
WS 9.7 98
Box Score Impact 4.8 95
Value Over Replacement 5.2 98
Positional BSI 4.98 -0.18

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 17 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0226)
Spacing 17 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Rim Protection 17 (coef=0.0168)
Weaknesses
First Step 9 (coef=0.0112)
Gravity 10 (coef=-0.0039)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 32.3 22.2 +10.1
RPG 8.1 8.5 -0.4
APG 4.2 5.2 -1.0
SPG 1.5 1.6 -0.1
BPG 1.6 1.5 +0.1
TPG - 2.3
FG% 0.495 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.39 0.3 +0.0
FT% 0.865 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
77:23%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 100%
Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Star-level score driven by exceptional Win Model Score. Defense is the primary value driver.

79 / 100 #6 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +1.39z
On-Court Impact +3.48 (Off +0.99, Def +2.48)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +2.23z
Win Model Score: 4.5758
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
67
#34
Defense
83
#6
Confidence
100%
3045 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 4.98 Actual: 4.8 -0.18
Performing in line with SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

75 / 100 #5 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 90
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 90
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 39
Future Value in line with current Impact (79)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
100
TS%
78
BPM
95
WS/48
86
RAPM
89
USG%
98
PA/100
62
BCI
57

Shot Quality

PA/100
+1.75
Points Added
+49.0
Selection
0.995
FGA
2790
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
38.3%
877 FGA (31%)
Rim
53.9%
1133 FGA (41%)
Long Midrange
38.7%
300 FGA (11%)
Short Midrange
38.3%
473 FGA (17%)
Other
28.6%
7 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
10.11
Load Tier
Good
Eff Delta
+2.7%
USG%
34.6%
Tendencies
Salary
$30.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
Player Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.680

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $30,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
4.576
Expected WM
3.671
Dev Residual
+0.9047
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.993
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 97.1% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Diego Quintillà St Louis Skyhawks 0 2.5 96.5% Secondary Creator / Chaser
L
Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warriors 24 3.5 95.4% Slasher / Wing Stopper
A
Antoine Thuram Oakland Tritons 0 2.0 95.4% Glue Guy / Helper
Z
Zachary Bancroft New York Renegades 0 3.5 95.2% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
17.0
Years to Peak
0
Current Win Value
16.3
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
3.459
Projected Peak WV
3.593
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
3
WV Growth
+0.134

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 17 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 15 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 10 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 17 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 9 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 16 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 19 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 18 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 19 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 15 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 15 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 17 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 17 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 17 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 15 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 17 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 17 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 17 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 19 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 16 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 18 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 17 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 9 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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