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Dwayne McRae

Dwayne McRae

SG

Washington Pilots · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Florida · Chicago, Illinois

Smooth shoot-and-defend forward

A fringe shooting guard averaging 15.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.2 APG. Excels in stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl), ball dominance (19 rating, 99th pctl) and shoot off dribble (17 rating, 92nd pctl). Limited by strength (3 rating, 7th pctl) and offensive rebounding (5 rating, 15th pctl).

43
Impact
63
Future
4.5
CA
2.5
PA
29
Age
$12.0M
Salary
3.924
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Floater Game (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Sniper (B) O Slasher (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O PnR Maestro (B) D Interceptor (S) D Help Defender (B) D Charge Taker (B)
Malik Monk
NBA Comparison
Malik Monk
2024-25
81%
Style
81%
Level
6'3" · 200lbs
15.0/3.0/4.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Alt comp
Jaden Ivey
2024-25 · 69%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.2
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 29 (past peak)
Future Value: 63
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 15.6 81
RPG 3.8 58
APG 4.2 83
SPG 1.6 89
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 32.4 89
Shooting
FG% 0.452 40
3P% 0.35 50
FT% 0.837 58
TS% 0.558 37
Impact
Impact 43 24
Off Impact 45 34
Def Impact 43 22
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 14.0 46
WS 2.6 49
Box Score Impact -1.9 25
Value Over Replacement 0.1 35
Positional BSI -0.60 -1.30

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
Post Defense 15 (coef=0.0333)
3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)
Ball Dominance 19 (coef=0.0152)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Defensive Rebounding 10 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0160)
Foul Drawing 13 (coef=0.0102)
Playmaking 9 (coef=0.0101)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 15.6 18.3 -2.7
RPG 3.8 4.8 -1.0
APG 4.2 4.4 -0.2
SPG 1.6 1.5 +0.1
BPG 0.2 0.7 -0.5
TPG - 1.9
FG% 0.452 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.35 0.4 -0.0
FT% 0.837 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
81:19%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Elite ratings haven't translated to on-court impact.

43 / 100 #345 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.60z
On-Court Impact -3.90 (Off -2.74, Def -1.16)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.07z
Win Model Score: 3.9058
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
45
#306
Defense
43
#352
Confidence
100%
2659 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.60 Actual: -1.9 -1.30
Significantly underperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

63 / 100 #68 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 68
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 69
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 51
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (43) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
76
TS%
33
BPM
22
WS/48
14
RAPM
8
USG%
66
PA/100
31
BCI
64

Shot Quality

PA/100
-4.48
Points Added
-50.9
Selection
0.991
FGA
1135
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
34.9%
392 FGA (34%)
Rim
49.2%
431 FGA (38%)
Short Midrange
34.6%
185 FGA (16%)
Long Midrange
44.9%
127 FGA (11%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
11.31
Load Tier
Below Average
Eff Delta
-1.8%
USG%
21.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$12.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.378

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $12,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.906
Expected WM
3.474
Dev Residual
+0.4318
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.056
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-2.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
T
Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs 26 4.0 97.6% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 97.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
L
Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warriors 24 3.5 97.3% Slasher / Wing Stopper
K
Kinard Otero Nashville Stars 20 3.5 97.2% Slasher / Wing Stopper
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 96.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
14.2
Years to Peak
-3
Current Win Value
14.2
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.924
Projected Peak WV
2.924
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 13 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 19 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 14 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 6 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 9 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 19 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 10 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 5 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 3 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 17 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 17 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 12 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 18 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 18 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 17 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 15 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 18 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 10 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 10 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 16 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 13 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 9 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 14 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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