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Jacob Nazarian

Jacob Nazarian

SG

Cincinnati Kings · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: USC · Culver City, California

Smooth 3-and-d guard

A star-level two-way shooting guard averaging 17.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 8.2 APG. Excels in free throws (19 rating, 99th pctl), offensive rebounding (19 rating, 99th pctl) and 8.2 APG (99th pctl). Limited by endurance (7 rating, 17th pctl).

62
Impact
61
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
28
Age
$27.0M
Salary
3.873
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(16)
O Glass Cleaner (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Floor General (S) O PnR Maestro (S) O Sniper (S) O Slasher (S) O Posterizer (S) O Lob Threat (S) O Floater Game (S) O Ankle Breaker (S) O Pull-Up Threat (S) O Iso Scorer (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) D Clamps (B)
Ja Morant
NBA Comparison
Ja Morant
2024-25
81%
Style
81%
Level
6'3" · 174lbs
21.5/4.0/8.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker Ball handler
Alt comp
Cade Cunningham
2024-25 · 74%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.6
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (2yr away)
Future Value: 61
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 17.5 89
RPG 5.6 77
APG 8.2 99
SPG 1.3 76
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 31.2 80
Shooting
FG% 0.438 32
3P% 0.347 47
FT% 0.909 91
TS% 0.559 39
Impact
Impact 62 85
Off Impact 57 74
Def Impact 66 89
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 20.3 95
WS 9.7 98
Box Score Impact 5.1 97
Value Over Replacement 4.3 97
Positional BSI 2.09 +3.01

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 16 (coef=0.0196)
Offensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0160)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 5 (coef=0.0333)
Rim Protection 5 (coef=0.0168)
Stealing 9 (coef=0.0145)
Endurance 7 (coef=0.0098)
Post Execution 3 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 17.5 19.0 -1.5
RPG 5.6 6.4 -0.8
APG 8.2 4.6 +3.6
SPG 1.3 1.0 +0.3
BPG 0.2 0.6 -0.4
TPG - 1.9
FG% 0.438 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.347 0.4 -0.0
FT% 0.909 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
75:25%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong On-Court Impact. Hidden intangibles add significant value beyond visible skills.

62 / 100 #77 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.86z
On-Court Impact +2.16 (Off -0.01, Def +2.17)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.95z
Win Model Score: 3.8555
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
57
#122
Defense
66
#49
Confidence
100%
2372 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 2.09 Actual: 5.1 +3.01
Significantly outperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

61 / 100 #82 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 72
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 71
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 35
Future Value in line with current Impact (62)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
87
TS%
35
BPM
97
WS/48
96
RAPM
76
USG%
84
PA/100
22
BCI
96

Shot Quality

PA/100
-6.64
Points Added
-96.9
Selection
0.974
FGA
1460
Zone Breakdown
Rim
44.5%
602 FGA (41%)
Above Break Three
34.8%
491 FGA (34%)
Short Midrange
37.2%
282 FGA (19%)
Long Midrange
40.2%
82 FGA (6%)
Other
0.0%
3 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
23.49
Load Tier
Below Average
Eff Delta
-1.8%
USG%
24.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$27.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.514

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $27,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.856
Expected WM
3.507
Dev Residual
+0.3485
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.066
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 98.5% Glue Guy / Chaser
D
Decensae Nyeko Portland Lumberjacks 0 2.5 97.5% Glue Guy / Mobile Big
C
Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Saints 26 4.0 96.5% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 96.2% Secondary Creator / Chaser
O
Orlando Fitzpatrick Chicago Jailbirds 0 4.0 96.0% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
14.6
Years to Peak
2
Current Win Value
14.4
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.990
Projected Peak WV
3.029
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
1
WV Growth
+0.039

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 12 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 16 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 3 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 18 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 9 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 18 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 19 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 18 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 18 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 15 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 18 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 18 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 5 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 5 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 7 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 14 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 19 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 15 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 12 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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