Kel Pendergast

Denver Dragons · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: NC State · Sanford, Florida

Imaginative 3-and-d wing

A solid shooting guard averaging 7.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.4 APG. Excels in basketball IQ (20 rating, 100th pctl), stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and floor spacing (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by post execution (2 rating, 19th pctl) and offensive rebounding (6 rating, 20th pctl).

Impact

Future

4.5

4.0

Age

$19.0M

Salary

3.995

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(15)

O Shot Creator (S) O Sniper (S) O Floater Game (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Slasher (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Posterizer (B) O Pop Threat (B) D Interceptor (S) D Clamps (B) D Pick Dodger (B) D Versatile Defender (B)

NBA Comparison

Andrew Wiggins

2024-25

82%

Style

82%

Level

6'7" · 197lbs

15.0/5.0/2.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)

3PT specialist

Alt comp

Jaden Ivey

2024-25 · 78%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 15.7

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (2yr away)

Future Value: 64

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	7.3	41
RPG	2.6	39
APG	1.4	44
SPG	0.7	52
BPG	0.2	43
MPG	16.7	36
Shooting
FG%	0.402	13
3P%	0.369	59
FT%	0.842	60
TS%	0.521	16
Impact
Impact	55	69
Off Impact	52	59
Def Impact	53	67
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	12.2	27
WS	0.5	20
Box Score Impact	-2.3	22
Value Over Replacement	-0.1	21
Positional BSI	0.16	-2.46

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)

Post Defense 14 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 17 (coef=0.0226)

3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)

Spacing 19 (coef=0.0196)

Weaknesses

Offensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0160)

Passing 9 (coef=0.0156)

Foul Drawing 12 (coef=0.0102)

Playmaking 9 (coef=0.0101)

Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	7.3	8.8	-1.5
RPG	2.6	2.9	-0.3
APG	1.4	0.3	+1.1
SPG	0.7	1.0	-0.3
BPG	0.2	0.5	-0.3
TPG	-	0.9
FG%	0.402	0.5	-0.1
3P%	0.369	0.4	-0.0
FT%	0.842	0.5	+0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency

27:73%

Denver Gap Fit

Rating	Player	Denver Avg	Top 3	Delta
Foul Drawing	12	11.4	14.4	+0.6
Defensive Rebounding	17	11.9	14.8	+5.1
Playmaking	9	9.8	12.6	-0.8
Offensive Rebounding	6	10.7	13.4	-4.7
Post Execution	2	6.0	8.6	-4.0
Self-Creation	19	13.5	15.7	+5.5
Ball Handling	18	11.8	13.7	+6.2
Finishing	16	14.4	16.1	+1.6
3PT Shooting	19	14.3	16.0	+4.7
Help Defense	11	14.1	15.7	-3.1

Positional Fit

Guard 80%

Wing 90%

Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong Win Model Score. Ratings suggest higher ceiling than on-court impact reflects — team context may be masking individual value.

55 / 100 #150 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.17z

On-Court Impact -0.37 (Off -0.12, Def -0.26)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.10z

Win Model Score: 3.9798

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#187

Defense

#150

Confidence

77%

902 min

Position Model (SF)

Predicted Positional BSI: 0.16 Actual: -2.3 -2.46

Significantly underperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

64 / 100 #50 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 73

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 73

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 45

Future Value above current Impact (55) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-5.60

Points Added

-20.9

Selection

0.984

FGA

373

Zone Breakdown

Above Break Three

36.8%

171 FGA (46%)

Rim

47.1%

102 FGA (27%)

Short Midrange

33.3%

57 FGA (15%)

Long Midrange

27.9%

43 FGA (12%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

6.83

Load Tier

Poor

Eff Delta

-5.5%

USG%

20.6%

Tendencies

Salary

$19.0M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.471

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$19,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.980

Expected WM

3.443

Dev Residual

+0.5365

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

4.439

PA Tier

High

Upside Gap

-0.5

Dev Status

Ahead of Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
L	Lenzelle Ndefo	Philadelphia Warriors	24	3.5	96.4%	Slasher / Wing Stopper
T	Tawaski Casuga	Detroit Mustangs	26	4.0	96.3%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
D	Davor Giffey	Austin Rockets	23	3.0	96.3%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
V	Viktor Morozov	Cleveland Giants	0	3.0	96.1%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
W	Wen Dunmore	Cincinnati Kings	0	3.0	96.0%	Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

15.7

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

14.6

Confidence

LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

3.021

Projected Peak WV

3.264

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.243

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	12	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	11	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	18	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	11	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	17	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	19	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	2	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	9	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	19	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	16	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	17	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	6	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	17	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	11	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	9	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	19	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	16	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	19	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	18	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	18	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	18	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	9	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	18	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	14	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	20	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	15	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	14	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	16	+0.00	Unknown	-
Work Ethic	16	+0.00	Unknown	-
Leadership	17	+0.00	Unknown	-
Discipline	15	+0.00	Unknown	-
Professionalism	18	+0.00	Unknown	-
Aggression	10	+0.00	Unknown	-
Toughness	12	+0.00	Unknown	-
Hustle	10	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	12	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	14	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	11	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	13	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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