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Kendrick Atkins

Kendrick Atkins

SG

Houston Lightning · Secondary Creator / Chaser

College: Kentucky · Louisville, Kentucky

Smooth facilitating wing

A rotation shooting guard averaging 8.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.0 APG. Excels in passing (20 rating, 100th pctl), perimeter defense (19 rating, 99th pctl) and three-point shooting (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by help defense (6 rating, 2nd pctl) and foul drawing (11 rating, 24th pctl).

49
Impact
52
Future
4.0
CA
2.5
PA
32
Age
$17.0M
Salary
3.577
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(8)
O Floater Game (S) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Posterizer (B) O Sniper (B) O Floor General (B) O Lob Threat (B) D Clamps (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Malik Monk
NBA Comparison
Malik Monk
2024-25
76%
Style
76%
Level
6'3" · 200lbs
15.0/3.0/4.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Ball handler
Alt comp
Christian Braun
2024-25 · 73%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.0
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 32 (past peak)
Future Value: 52
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 8.4 49
RPG 3.5 53
APG 3.0 67
SPG 0.9 60
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 20.0 46
Shooting
FG% 0.374 8
3P% 0.339 42
FT% 0.812 47
TS% 0.496 7
Impact
Impact 49 49
Off Impact 53 62
Def Impact 47 39
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 13.1 36
WS 0.5 20
Box Score Impact -0.8 37
Value Over Replacement 0.2 40
Positional BSI 1.00 -1.80

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)
Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)
Passing 20 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 6 (coef=0.0333)
Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)
Stealing 8 (coef=0.0145)
Foul Drawing 11 (coef=0.0102)
Endurance 8 (coef=0.0098)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 8.4 11.1 -2.7
RPG 3.5 4.2 -0.7
APG 3.0 3.5 -0.5
SPG 0.9 0.5 +0.4
BPG 0.1 0.3 -0.2
TPG - 1.1
FG% 0.374 0.5 -0.1
3P% 0.339 0.4 -0.1
FT% 0.812 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
70:30%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by weak Hidden Rating Impact. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict.

49 / 100 #241 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.32z
On-Court Impact -0.75 (Off -0.62, Def -0.13)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.18z
Win Model Score: 3.5600
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
53
#178
Defense
47
#290
Confidence
72%
819 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.00 Actual: -0.8 -1.80
Significantly underperforming PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

52 / 100 #229 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 56
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 58
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 41
Future Value in line with current Impact (49)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
36
TS%
3
BPM
35
WS/48
9
RAPM
39
USG%
62
PA/100
8
BCI
67

Shot Quality

PA/100
-12.36
Points Added
-42.4
Selection
1.013
FGA
343
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
33.9%
180 FGA (52%)
Rim
47.1%
87 FGA (25%)
Long Midrange
18.8%
32 FGA (9%)
Short Midrange
33.3%
42 FGA (12%)
Other
0.0%
2 FGA (1%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
12.02
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-8.0%
USG%
20.9%
Tendencies
Salary
$17.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.389

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $17,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.560
Expected WM
3.587
Dev Residual
-0.0272
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.597
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 97.8% Glue Guy / Chaser
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 97.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 97.4% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Decensae Nyeko Portland Lumberjacks 0 2.5 97.1% Glue Guy / Mobile Big
O
Orlando Fitzpatrick Chicago Jailbirds 0 4.0 96.2% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
32
Peak Win Value
13.0
Years to Peak
-3
Current Win Value
13.0
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.840
Projected Peak WV
2.840
Peak Age
32
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 11 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 6 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 13 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 10 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 9 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 10 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 8 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 15 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 13 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 17 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 14 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 20 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 12 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 12 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 19 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 15 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 3 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 6 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 8 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 9 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 14 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 11 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 13 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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