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Lance Jacobsen

Lance Jacobsen

SG

Pittsburgh Vipers · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Marquette · Edwardsville, Illinois

Creative two-way shooting guard

A rotation shooting guard averaging 5.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.7 APG. Excels in endurance (19 rating, 100th pctl), help defense (19 rating, 99th pctl) and quickness (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by pick-and-roll execution (5 rating, 7th pctl) and post defense (2 rating, 15th pctl).

47
Impact
62
Future
4.0
CA
2.0
PA
30
Age
$6.0M
Salary
3.584
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(12)
O Ankle Breaker (S) O Floater Game (S) O Floor General (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Shot Creator (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Slasher (B) D Help Defender (G) D Pick Dodger (S) D Clamps (S) D Interceptor (S) D Charge Taker (B)
Marcus Smart
NBA Comparison
Marcus Smart
2022-23
80%
Style
80%
Level
6'3" · 220lbs
11.5/3.1/6.3 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Alex Caruso
2024-25 · 67%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.3
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 30 (past peak)
Future Value: 62
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 5.1 25
RPG 2.1 33
APG 2.7 63
SPG 1.1 68
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 15.6 32
Shooting
FG% 0.434 29
3P% 0.359 54
FT% 0.908 90
TS% 0.558 37
Impact
Impact 47 40
Off Impact 49 49
Def Impact 44 24
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 14.2 48
WS 2.2 42
Box Score Impact -0.5 42
Value Over Replacement 0.5 49
Positional BSI 1.93 -2.43

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)
Passing 17 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Stealing 16 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)
Spacing 8 (coef=0.0196)
Offensive Rebounding 9 (coef=0.0160)
Post Execution 3 (coef=0.0074)
Gravity 12 (coef=-0.0039)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 5.1 6.9 -1.8
RPG 2.1 2.5 -0.4
APG 2.7 3.1 -0.4
SPG 1.1 0.8 +0.3
BPG 0.2 0.2 -0.1
TPG - 0.7
FG% 0.434 0.5 -0.1
3P% 0.359 0.3 +0.1
FT% 0.908 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
79:21%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by modest On-Court Impact.

47 / 100 #273 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.54z
On-Court Impact -1.28 (Off -0.74, Def -0.54)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.15z
Win Model Score: 3.5687
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
49
#242
Defense
44
#341
Confidence
90%
1251 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.93 Actual: -0.5 -2.43
Significantly underperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

62 / 100 #77 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 58
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 60
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 70
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (47) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
9
TS%
33
BPM
39
WS/48
37
RAPM
5
USG%
16
PA/100
28

Shot Quality

PA/100
-5.17
Points Added
-18.5
Selection
1.001
FGA
357
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
35.9%
142 FGA (40%)
Short Midrange
42.6%
68 FGA (19%)
Rim
45.6%
114 FGA (32%)
Long Midrange
34.4%
32 FGA (9%)
Other
100.0%
1 FGA (0%)
Tendencies
Salary
$6.0M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.409

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $6,000,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with Pittsburgh Vipers
2051-52 $6,000,000
Total Owed $12,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.569
Expected WM
3.432
Dev Residual
+0.1365
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.668
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-2.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 97.6% Glue Guy / Chaser
D
Decensae Nyeko Portland Lumberjacks 0 2.5 96.8% Glue Guy / Mobile Big
O
Orlando Fitzpatrick Chicago Jailbirds 0 4.0 96.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 96.5% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Daevon Nash Oakland Tritons 23 5.0 96.3% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
13.3
Years to Peak
-4
Current Win Value
13.3
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.440
Projected Peak WV
2.440
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 19 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 11 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 12 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 8 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 3 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 17 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 16 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 15 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 9 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 15 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 5 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 17 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 18 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 15 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 18 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 16 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 9 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 2 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 19 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 19 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 16 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 13 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 16 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 12 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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