Mandela Marsh-Kittrell
PGBaltimore Bullets · Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
College: Marquette · Topeka, Kansas
Skilled 3-and-d guard
A star-level point guard averaging 13.6 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 7.6 APG. Excels in shoot off dribble (19 rating, 100th pctl), help defense (20 rating, 100th pctl) and three-point shooting (20 rating, 100th pctl). Limited by defensive rebounding (4 rating, 5th pctl) and rim protection (2 rating, 15th pctl).
61
Impact
56
Future
4.5
CA
3.5
PA
25
Age
$15.0M
3.396
Bal WV
Skill Badges
(18)
O
Sniper
(S)
O
Catch & Shoot
(S)
O
Ankle Breaker
(S)
O
Pull-Up Threat
(S)
O
Shot Creator
(S)
O
Pop Threat
(S)
O
Slasher
(B)
O
Gravity Generator
(B)
O
Floater Game
(B)
O
Floor General
(B)
O
PnR Maestro
(B)
O
Lob Threat
(B)
O
Speed Demon
(B)
O
Iso Scorer
(B)
D
Help Defender
(S)
D
Interceptor
(S)
D
Pick Dodger
(B)
D
Clamps
(B)
NBA Comparison
Tyrese Haliburton
2024-25
74%
Style
74%
Level
6'5" · 185lbs
17.0/4.0/9.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker
3PT specialist
Ball handler
Alt comp
Darius Garland
2024-25 · 72%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge:
13.8
Stage:
Developing
Peak Age:
29
(5yr away)
Future Value:
56
Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)
Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 20 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 17 (coef=0.0196)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Stealing 18 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 3 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 4 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0160)
Ball Dominance 10 (coef=0.0152)
Expected vs Actual Production
| Stat | Actual | Expected | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | 13.6 | 17.9 | -4.3 |
| RPG | 1.9 | 2.4 | -0.5 |
| APG | 7.6 | 5.2 | +2.4 |
| SPG | 1.7 | 1.5 | +0.2 |
| BPG | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| TPG | - | 1.8 | |
| FG% | 0.445 | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| 3P% | 0.396 | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| FT% | 0.87 | 0.5 | +0.4 |
Play Style
Driving Frequency
53:47%
Positional Fit
Guard
90%
Wing
90%
Big
70%
Player Impact Breakdown
Solid starter score driven by strong On-Court Impact. Offense is the primary value driver.
61
/ 100
#85 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight
+1.07z
On-Court Impact +2.68 (Off +2.39, Def +0.39)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight
+0.20z
Win Model Score: 3.3810
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight
+0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
69
#24
Defense
43
#352
Confidence
100%
2389 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI:
0.67
Actual:
1.8
+1.13
Significantly outperforming PG model predictions
Future Value
Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.
56
/ 100
#144 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight
58
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight
57
Contract Surplus — 30% weight
52
Future Value below current Impact (61) — may be approaching decline
League Percentile Profile
PPG
65
TS%
59
BPM
67
WS/48
83
RAPM
82
USG%
46
PA/100
68
BCI
89
Shot Quality
PA/100
+3.13
Points Added
+32.2
Selection
0.994
FGA
1028
Zone Breakdown
Rim
52.1%
290 FGA (28%)
Above Break Three
38.4%
554 FGA (54%)
Short Midrange
32.1%
131 FGA (13%)
Long Midrange
28.3%
53 FGA (5%)
Creation & Scoring Load
Box Creation
21.25
Load Tier
Good
Eff Delta
+1.1%
USG%
18.7%
Tendencies
Salary
$15.0M
Years Left
3
Expiry
2053
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.523
Contract Breakdown
| Season | Salary | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2050-51 | $15,000,000 | Re-signed with Kansas City Knights |
| 2051-52 | $15,000,000 | |
| 2052-53 | $15,000,000 | |
| Total Owed | $45,000,000 |
Win Model Development
Win Model Score
3.381
Expected WM
3.394
Dev Residual
-0.0131
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Model
3.734
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Slightly Behind
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.
Win Model Trajectory
Most Similar Players
Predicted Archetype
Offensive
Defensive
Win Value Development
Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
13.8
Years to Peak
5
Current Win Value
13.0
Confidence
HIGH
Win Value Trajectory
Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)
Current WV
2.304
Projected Peak WV
2.455
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
4
WV Growth
+0.151
Rating Trainability
| Rating | Current | Growth/yr | Class | Peak Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foul Drawing | 16 | +1.23 | High Growth | 31 |
| Help Defense | 20 | +0.66 | High Growth | 27 |
| Off-Ball Defense | 18 | +0.55 | High Growth | 28 |
| Ball Dominance | 10 | +0.55 | High Growth | 28 |
| Gravity | 15 | +0.52 | High Growth | 29 |
| Spacing | 17 | +0.45 | High Growth | 18 |
| Post Execution | 2 | +0.40 | High Growth | 29 |
| Playmaking | 17 | +0.40 | High Growth | 29 |
| Stealing | 18 | +0.38 | High Growth | 19 |
| Finishing | 17 | +0.37 | High Growth | 27 |
| Defensive Rebounding | 4 | +0.37 | High Growth | 18 |
| Offensive Rebounding | 5 | +0.36 | High Growth | 18 |
| Strength | 9 | +0.35 | High Growth | 18 |
| Pick & Roll Execution | 16 | +0.34 | High Growth | 18 |
| Passing | 15 | +0.33 | High Growth | 18 |
| Self-Creation | 17 | +0.32 | High Growth | 19 |
| Isolation Execution | 14 | +0.32 | High Growth | 18 |
| 3PT Shooting | 20 | +0.31 | High Growth | 19 |
| Ball Handling | 19 | +0.30 | High Growth | 19 |
| On-Ball Perimeter Defense | 19 | +0.30 | High Growth | 18 |
| Shoot Off Dribble | 19 | +0.28 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Rim Protection | 2 | +0.26 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Inside Shooting | 17 | +0.25 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Post Defense | 3 | +0.17 | Moderate Growth | 18 |
| Basketball IQ | 16 | +0.07 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Endurance | 11 | +0.05 | Low Growth | 20 |
| Speed | 16 | +0.01 | Low Growth | 18 |
| Free Throws | 16 | +0.00 | Unknown | - |
| First Step | 17 | -0.01 | Low Growth | 18 |
| Mid-Range Shooting | 16 | -0.03 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Quickness | 15 | -0.08 | Low Growth | 19 |
| Athleticism | 15 | -0.08 | Low Growth | 19 |