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Mattias Fortt

Mattias Fortt

SG

Atlanta Devils · Glue Guy / Helper

College: Missouri · Windsor, Vermont

Effort-driven forward

A fringe shooting guard averaging 11.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.7 APG. Excels in speed (17 rating, 93rd pctl), shoot off dribble (16 rating, 85th pctl) and 1.5 SPG (84th pctl). Limited by post execution (1 rating, 5th pctl) and self-creation (8 rating, 13th pctl).

30
Impact
60
Future
3.0
CA
4.5
PA
20
Age
$5.8M
Salary
3.598
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(1)
O Floater Game (B)
Amen Thompson
NBA Comparison
Amen Thompson
2024-25
79%
Style
79%
Level
6'6" · 217lbs
11.0/6.0/3.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Alt comp
Mikal Bridges
2024-25 · 75%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.9
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (9yr away)
Future Value: 60
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 11.4 65
RPG 5.3 75
APG 3.7 77
SPG 1.5 84
BPG 1.2 78
MPG 31.9 85
Shooting
FG% 0.396 12
3P% 0.241 22
FT% 0.806 45
TS% 0.475 6
Impact
Impact 30 6
Off Impact 29 5
Def Impact 43 22
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 11.0 21
WS -0.3 2
Box Score Impact -4.5 6
Value Over Replacement -1.3 3
Positional BSI 0.83 -5.33

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 16 (coef=0.0333)
Passing 15 (coef=0.0156)
Shoot Off Dribble 16 (coef=0.0134)
Endurance 14 (coef=0.0098)
Basketball IQ 15 (coef=0.0078)
Weaknesses
3PT Shooting 12 (coef=0.0196)
Ball Dominance 9 (coef=0.0152)
Foul Drawing 10 (coef=0.0102)
Athleticism 11 (coef=-0.0094)
Post Execution 1 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 11.4 15.5 -4.1
RPG 5.3 6.2 -0.9
APG 3.7 3.7 +0.0
SPG 1.5 1.2 +0.3
BPG 1.2 1.4 -0.2
TPG - 1.6
FG% 0.396 0.5 -0.1
3P% 0.241 0.3 -0.1
FT% 0.806 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
73:27%

Positional Fit

Guard 70%
Wing 80%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict. Defense is the primary value driver.

30 / 100 #411 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.92z
On-Court Impact -4.70 (Off -3.25, Def -1.53)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.35z
Win Model Score: 3.5852
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
29
#416
Defense
43
#352
Confidence
99%
2135 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.83 Actual: -4.5 -5.33
Significantly underperforming PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

60 / 100 #89 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 56
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 58
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 66
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (30) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
55
TS%
2
BPM
4
WS/48
3
RAPM
2
USG%
47
PA/100
3
BCI
54

Shot Quality

PA/100
-18.49
Points Added
-147.0
Selection
0.985
FGA
795
Zone Breakdown
Short Midrange
33.0%
200 FGA (25%)
Above Break Three
24.4%
234 FGA (29%)
Rim
47.0%
283 FGA (36%)
Long Midrange
42.9%
77 FGA (10%)
Other
100.0%
1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
9.63
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-10.1%
USG%
18.9%
Tendencies
Salary
$5.8M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
Team Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.383

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $5,800,000
2051-52 $5,800,000
Total Owed $11,600,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.585
Expected WM
3.271
Dev Residual
+0.3138
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.309
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
1.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
L
Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warriors 24 3.5 97.3% Slasher / Wing Stopper
A
Antoine Thuram Oakland Tritons 0 2.0 96.9% Glue Guy / Helper
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 96.4% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Damjan Nemanič Los Angeles Fireballs 30 4.5 96.3% Post Bully / Mobile Big
K
Kinard Otero Nashville Stars 20 3.5 96.3% Slasher / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.9
Years to Peak
9
Current Win Value
12.7
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.748
Projected Peak WV
3.443
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
9
WV Growth
+0.695

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 10 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 14 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 9 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 11 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 10 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 1 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 10 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 13 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 16 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 13 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 10 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 7 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 8 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 15 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 8 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 10 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 12 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 13 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 16 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 13 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 16 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 16 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 15 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 14 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 14 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 13 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 9 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 11 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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