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Paolo Belli

Paolo Belli

SG

Cleveland Giants · Primary Ballhandler / Chaser

College:
· Ponte nell’Alpi

Cerebral 3-and-d guard

An elite two-way shooting guard averaging 6.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.4 APG. Excels in basketball IQ (20 rating, 100th pctl), defensive rebounding (20 rating, 100th pctl) and playmaking (20 rating, 100th pctl). Limited by help defense (7 rating, 4th pctl) and foul drawing (9 rating, 12th pctl).

70
Impact
77
Future
4.5
CA
3.5
PA
30
Age
$3.2M
Salary
4.331
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(11)
O Floor General (G) O Iso Scorer (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Sniper (S) O PnR Maestro (B) O Floater Game (B) O Glass Cleaner (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) D Interceptor (S)
Tre Jones
NBA Comparison
Tre Jones
2024-25
70%
Style
70%
Level
6'1" · 185lbs
7.0/2.5/5.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Ball handler
Alt comp
Immanuel Quickley
2024-25 · 56%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.5
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 30 (past peak)
Future Value: 77
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 6.8 38
RPG 2.8 43
APG 4.4 84
SPG 0.9 60
BPG - 15
MPG 19.5 45
Shooting
FG% 0.5 70
3P% 0.404 77
FT% 0.636 10
TS% 0.551 32
Impact
Impact 70 94
Off Impact 63 89
Def Impact 67 91
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating - 12
WS 4.2 70
Box Score Impact 3.2 84
Value Over Replacement 2.2 81
Positional BSI 2.94 +0.26

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 20 (coef=0.0226)
Spacing 19 (coef=0.0196)
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Weaknesses
Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)
First Step 9 (coef=0.0112)
Foul Drawing 9 (coef=0.0102)
Mid-Range Shooting 9 (coef=0.0069)
Help Defense 7 (coef=0.0040)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 6.8 9.6 -2.8
RPG 2.8 4.5 -1.7
APG 4.4 3.3 +1.1
SPG 0.9 1.0 -0.1
BPG 0.0 0.3 -0.3
TPG - 1.0
FG% 0.5 0.4 +0.1
3P% 0.404 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.636 0.5 +0.2

Play Style

Driving Frequency
11:89%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Star-level score driven by exceptional Win Model Score.

70 / 100 #32 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.81z
On-Court Impact +2.05 (Off +0.86, Def +1.18)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.73z
Win Model Score: 4.3130
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
63
#60
Defense
67
#46
Confidence
97%
1673 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 2.94 Actual: 3.2 +0.26
Performing in line with PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

77 / 100 #4 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 81
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 82
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 66
Future Value above current Impact (70) — trajectory is positive

Shot Quality

PA/100
+2.45
Points Added
+11.9
Selection
0.988
FGA
486
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
37.8%
267 FGA (55%)
Rim
44.3%
115 FGA (24%)
Long Midrange
50.0%
44 FGA (9%)
Short Midrange
37.3%
59 FGA (12%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)
Tendencies
Salary
$3.2M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.607

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $3,250,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with Cleveland Giants

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
4.313
Expected WM
3.671
Dev Residual
+0.6417
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.452
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 97.4% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Davor Giffey Austin Rockets 23 3.0 96.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 96.0% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 95.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Diego Quintillà St Louis Skyhawks 0 2.5 95.5% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Value
15.5
Years to Peak
0
Current Win Value
15.5
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
3.355
Projected Peak WV
3.355
Peak Age
30
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 9 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 7 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 19 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 19 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 6 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 20 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 18 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 10 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 20 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 16 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 11 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 13 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 16 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 18 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 3 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 13 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 20 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 13 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 10 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 13 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 9 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 9 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 9 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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