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Brandon Arenas

Brandon Arenas

SG

Pittsburgh Vipers · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Alabama · Okemos, Michigan

Spectacular defensive guard

A fringe scoring shooting guard averaging 25.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 6.0 APG. Excels in off-ball defense (19 rating, 99th pctl), 25.9 PPG (99th pctl) and endurance (17 rating, 96th pctl). Limited by post defense (1 rating, 5th pctl) and rim protection (2 rating, 15th pctl).

32
Impact
54
Future
3.5
CA
4.0
PA
20
Age
$4.2M
Salary
3.243
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(12)
O Gravity Generator (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Sniper (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Posterizer (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Lob Threat (B) D Interceptor (S) D Clamps (B) D Pick Dodger (B)
LaMelo Ball
NBA Comparison
LaMelo Ball
2024-25
69%
Style
69%
Level
6'6" · 180lbs
25.2/4.9/7.4 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Volume scorer
Alt comp
Stephen Curry
2024-25 · 67%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 16.1
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (10yr away)
Future Value: 54
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 25.9 99
RPG 4.0 61
APG 6.0 92
SPG 1.6 89
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 34.3 98
Shooting
FG% 0.468 53
3P% 0.35 50
FT% 0.873 73
TS% 0.587 59
Impact
Impact 32 9
Off Impact 44 30
Def Impact 28 4
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 20.7 95
WS 4.1 68
Box Score Impact -0.5 42
Value Over Replacement 1.0 63
Positional BSI -0.38 -0.12

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Spacing 17 (coef=0.0196)
3PT Shooting 16 (coef=0.0196)
Stealing 17 (coef=0.0145)
Ball Dominance 15 (coef=0.0152)
Shoot Off Dribble 14 (coef=0.0134)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 1 (coef=0.0333)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0160)
Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)
Isolation Execution 10 (coef=0.0062)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 25.9 20.0 +5.9
RPG 4.0 5.3 -1.3
APG 6.0 4.7 +1.3
SPG 1.6 1.6 +0.0
BPG 0.1 0.5 -0.4
TPG - 2.1
FG% 0.468 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.35 0.4 -0.0
FT% 0.873 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
70:30%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Offense is the primary value driver.

32 / 100 #402 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.21z
On-Court Impact -2.94 (Off -1.28, Def -1.66)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.44z
Win Model Score: 3.2281
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
44
#324
Defense
28
#423
Confidence
100%
2747 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.38 Actual: -0.5 -0.12
Performing in line with PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

54 / 100 #206 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 54
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 54
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 53
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (32) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
98
TS%
59
BPM
39
WS/48
27
RAPM
15
USG%
97
PA/100
44
BCI
78

Shot Quality

PA/100
-1.52
Points Added
-26.5
Selection
0.969
FGA
1750
Zone Breakdown
Long Midrange
37.2%
199 FGA (11%)
Above Break Three
34.6%
604 FGA (34%)
Rim
50.9%
646 FGA (37%)
Short Midrange
39.3%
300 FGA (17%)
Other
100.0%
1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
15.45
Load Tier
Average
Eff Delta
+0.8%
USG%
32.7%
Tendencies
Salary
$4.2M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
Team Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.372

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $4,150,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.228
Expected WM
3.235
Dev Residual
-0.0071
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.896
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.5
Dev Status
Slightly Behind
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
C
Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Saints 26 4.0 98.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 98.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 97.9% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 97.6% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
I
Isaiah Harris Kansas City Knights 23 3.5 97.0% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
16.1
Years to Peak
10
Current Win Value
12.5
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.324
Projected Peak WV
2.994
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
9
WV Growth
+0.671

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 10 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 17 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 11 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 17 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 14 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 13 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 8 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 17 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 15 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 14 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 14 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 10 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 16 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 16 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 15 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 14 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 16 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 1 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 14 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 17 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 16 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 15 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 17 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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