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Jaron Cavalaris

Jaron Cavalaris

SG

Indiana Stonecutters · Secondary Creator / Point Of Attack

College: Marquette · Onalaska, Wisconsin

Smooth clamp-down guard

A fringe shooting guard averaging 7.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 5.1 APG. Excels in first step (17 rating, 95th pctl), foul drawing (17 rating, 88th pctl) and 5.1 APG (88th pctl). Limited by rim protection (1 rating, 7th pctl) and post defense (2 rating, 15th pctl).

31
Impact
49
Future
3.0
CA
4.5
PA
20
Age
$2.8M
Salary
2.954
Bal WV
Kyle Lowry
NBA Comparison
Kyle Lowry
2021-22
65%
Style
65%
Level
6'0" · 196lbs
13.4/4.5/7.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker Ball handler
Alt comp
Immanuel Quickley
2024-25 · 63%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.1
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (10yr away)
Future Value: 49
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 7.2 41
RPG 3.1 47
APG 5.1 88
SPG 1.0 64
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 19.9 46
Shooting
FG% 0.497 68
3P% 0.344 45
FT% 0.858 67
TS% 0.565 44
Impact
Impact 31 8
Off Impact 37 12
Def Impact 38 12
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 16.5 71
WS 3.7 62
Box Score Impact -1.4 30
Value Over Replacement 0.2 40
Positional BSI -0.82 -0.58

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)
Stealing 15 (coef=0.0145)
First Step 17 (coef=0.0112)
Foul Drawing 17 (coef=0.0102)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)
3PT Shooting 9 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 8 (coef=0.0196)
Rim Protection 1 (coef=0.0168)
Inside Shooting 15 (coef=0.0155)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 7.2 8.5 -1.3
RPG 3.1 3.8 -0.7
APG 5.1 2.9 +2.2
SPG 1.0 0.9 +0.1
BPG 0.1 0.1 -0.0
TPG - 0.9
FG% 0.497 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.344 0.2 +0.1
FT% 0.858 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
77:23%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak Win Model Score.

31 / 100 #407 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.91z
On-Court Impact -2.21 (Off -1.33, Def -0.87)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.50z
Win Model Score: 2.9421
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
37
#390
Defense
38
#393
Confidence
96%
1528 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.82 Actual: -1.4 -0.58
Underperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

49 / 100 #282 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 43
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 45
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 62
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (31) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
27
TS%
40
BPM
27
WS/48
62
RAPM
17
USG%
26
PA/100
34
BCI
94

Shot Quality

PA/100
-3.49
Points Added
-17.1
Selection
0.933
FGA
489
Zone Breakdown
Rim
50.6%
253 FGA (52%)
Short Midrange
41.0%
144 FGA (29%)
Long Midrange
26.7%
60 FGA (12%)
Above Break Three
34.4%
32 FGA (6%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
23.13
Load Tier
Below Average
Eff Delta
-1.0%
USG%
15.8%
Tendencies
Salary
$2.8M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
Team Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.363

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $2,750,000
2051-52 $2,750,000
Total Owed $5,500,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
2.942
Expected WM
3.271
Dev Residual
-0.3293
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.666
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 96.9% Glue Guy / Chaser
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 95.8% Secondary Creator / Chaser
I
Isaiah Harris Kansas City Knights 23 3.5 95.6% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
A
Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 30 4.5 95.5% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Decensae Nyeko Portland Lumberjacks 0 2.5 94.9% Glue Guy / Mobile Big

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.1
Years to Peak
10
Current Win Value
11.3
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.077
Projected Peak WV
2.773
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
9
WV Growth
+0.696

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 17 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 12 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 10 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 16 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 8 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 16 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 15 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 11 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 15 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 13 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 10 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 14 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 13 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 9 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 10 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 9 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 15 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 12 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 1 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 15 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 2 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 13 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 14 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 17 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 10 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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