Jarquez Gowins

Baltimore Bullets · Interior Playmaker / Helper

College: UNLV · San Francisco, California

Savvy rim-protecting forward

A solid defensive power forward averaging 7.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.4 APG. Excels in strength (20 rating, 100th pctl), help defense (19 rating, 99th pctl) and post defense (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by pick-and-roll execution (5 rating, 7th pctl) and ball dominance (8 rating, 15th pctl).

Impact

Future

5.0

3.5

Age

$13.5M

Salary

4.039

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(10)

O Post Hub (G) O Floater Game (S) O Iso Scorer (B) O Glass Cleaner (B) D Paint Wall (G) D Rim Eraser (S) D Help Defender (S) D Versatile Defender (B) D Charge Taker (B) D Clamps (B)

NBA Comparison

Jabari Smith Jr.

2024-25

72%

Style

72%

Level

6'10" · 220lbs

13.5/7.0/1.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Rim protector Defensive anchor

Alt comp

Dereck Lively II

2024-25 · 66%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 14.5

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (2yr away)

Future Value: 60

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	7.9	45
RPG	4.8	71
APG	1.4	44
SPG	0.9	60
BPG	1.5	86
MPG	22.9	53
Shooting
FG%	0.472	56
3P%	0.333	41
FT%	0.744	26
TS%	0.53	19
Impact
Impact	51	55
Off Impact	36	10
Def Impact	64	87
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	12.6	30
WS	2.8	52
Box Score Impact	0.4	55
Value Over Replacement	1.0	63
Positional BSI	2.00	-1.60

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

Post Defense 19 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)

Rim Protection 19 (coef=0.0168)

Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)

Passing 15 (coef=0.0156)

Weaknesses

3PT Shooting 13 (coef=0.0196)

Spacing 7 (coef=0.0196)

Ball Dominance 8 (coef=0.0152)

Stealing 8 (coef=0.0145)

Athleticism 10 (coef=-0.0094)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	7.9	9.0	-1.1
RPG	4.8	6.6	-1.8
APG	1.4	1.8	-0.4
SPG	0.9	0.4	+0.5
BPG	1.5	1.4	+0.1
TPG	-	0.8
FG%	0.472	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.333	0.3	+0.0
FT%	0.744	0.5	+0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency

91:9%

Positional Fit

Guard 60%

Wing 80%

Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by strong Win Model Score. Elite ratings haven't translated to on-court impact. Defense is the primary value driver.

51 / 100 #213 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.85z

On-Court Impact -2.06 (Off -2.79, Def +0.66)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.19z

Win Model Score: 4.0256

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#394

Defense

#62

Confidence

97%

1669 min

Position Model (C)

Predicted Positional BSI: 2.00 Actual: 0.4 -1.60

Significantly underperforming C model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

60 / 100 #91 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 65

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 64

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 47

Future Value above current Impact (51) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-8.52

Points Added

-48.1

Selection

0.940

FGA

565

Zone Breakdown

Short Midrange

29.8%

178 FGA (32%)

Rim

48.7%

347 FGA (61%)

Long Midrange

52.4%

21 FGA (4%)

Above Break Three

31.2%

16 FGA (3%)

Other

33.3%

3 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

6.27

Load Tier

Poor

Eff Delta

-4.5%

USG%

16.3%

Tendencies

Salary

$13.5M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.455

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$13,500,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

4.026

Expected WM

3.684

Dev Residual

+0.3413

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

4.371

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-1.5

Dev Status

Ahead of Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
Z	Zeke Barry	Kansas City Knights	24	5.0	98.5%	Versatile Big / Mobile Big
S	Semisi Rautins	Atlanta Devils	20	5.0	98.1%	Versatile Big / Mobile Big
O	Ousman Schaafsma	Oklahoma City Barons	25	4.0	98.0%	Glue Guy / Wing Stopper
L	LaShun Eddington	Kansas City Knights	0	2.5	98.0%	Stretch Big / Helper
D	Drake Walter	Vancouver Wolves	28	5.0	97.9%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

14.5

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

13.7

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

3.034

Projected Peak WV

3.203

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.169

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	14	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	19	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	15	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	8	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	14	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	7	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	19	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	13	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	8	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	15	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	15	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	13	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	20	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	5	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	15	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	18	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	18	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	13	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	7	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	15	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	6	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	19	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	19	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	19	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	19	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	13	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	6	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	13	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	13	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	11	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	11	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	10	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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