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Jarrett Sutherland

Jarrett Sutherland

PG

Toronto Huskies · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

College: Kansas · Moorhead, Minnesota

Inventive 3-and-d guard

A star-level two-way point guard averaging 19.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 7.8 APG. Excels in shoot off dribble (19 rating, 100th pctl), speed (20 rating, 100th pctl) and off-ball defense (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by strength (4 rating, 11th pctl) and basketball IQ (10 rating, 13th pctl).

58
Impact
59
Future
4.5
CA
5.0
PA
25
Age
$28.0M
Salary
3.809
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Gravity Generator (S) O Sniper (S) O Ankle Breaker (S) O Lob Threat (B) O Floor General (B) O Speed Demon (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Slasher (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Pop Threat (B) D Chasedown Artist (B)
Ja Morant
NBA Comparison
Ja Morant
2024-25
83%
Style
83%
Level
6'3" · 174lbs
21.5/4.0/8.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer Elite playmaker Ball handler
Alt comp
LaMelo Ball
2024-25 · 79%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.2
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (5yr away)
Future Value: 59
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 19.2 94
RPG 4.0 61
APG 7.8 97
SPG 1.7 93
BPG 0.3 48
MPG 32.0 87
Shooting
FG% 0.479 60
3P% 0.413 81
FT% 0.908 90
TS% 0.614 81
Impact
Impact 58 76
Off Impact 58 77
Def Impact 61 83
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 21.4 97
WS 8.3 94
Box Score Impact 3.4 87
Value Over Replacement 3.4 92
Positional BSI 0.97 +2.43

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)
Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)
Spacing 17 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 7 (coef=0.0333)
Offensive Rebounding 7 (coef=0.0160)
Stealing 9 (coef=0.0145)
Basketball IQ 10 (coef=0.0078)
Mid-Range Shooting 11 (coef=0.0069)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 19.2 19.2 +0.0
RPG 4.0 5.3 -1.3
APG 7.8 5.5 +2.3
SPG 1.7 1.1 +0.6
BPG 0.3 0.8 -0.5
TPG - 2.1
FG% 0.479 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.413 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.908 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
46:54%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong Win Model Score.

58 / 100 #117 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.55z
On-Court Impact +1.40 (Off -0.64, Def +2.04)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.83z
Win Model Score: 3.7921
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
58
#112
Defense
61
#77
Confidence
100%
2496 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.97 Actual: 3.4 +2.43
Significantly outperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

59 / 100 #115 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 72
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 72
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 29
Future Value in line with current Impact (58)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
92
TS%
83
BPM
86
WS/48
89
RAPM
64
USG%
84
PA/100
75
BCI
90

Shot Quality

PA/100
+5.24
Points Added
+63.2
Selection
0.970
FGA
1206
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
41.2%
456 FGA (38%)
Rim
48.4%
496 FGA (41%)
Long Midrange
40.7%
54 FGA (4%)
Short Midrange
36.4%
198 FGA (16%)
Other
50.0%
2 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
21.43
Load Tier
Elite
Eff Delta
+3.7%
USG%
24.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$28.0M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.519

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $28,000,000 Re-signed with Toronto Huskies
2051-52 $28,000,000
Total Owed $56,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.792
Expected WM
3.662
Dev Residual
+0.1305
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Model
4.274
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
F
Fabio Tinto Salt Lake City Saints 21 3.5 98.1% Secondary Creator / Point Of Attack
J
Johari Whitaker New Orleans Hurricanes 30 5.0 98.0% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
K
Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves 29 5.0 98.0% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
O
Orkun Ozcan Vancouver Wolves 29 4.0 97.8% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
J
Jacob Nazarian Cincinnati Kings 28 4.5 97.6% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.2
Years to Peak
5
Current Win Value
14.3
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.932
Projected Peak WV
3.102
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
4
WV Growth
+0.170

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 18 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 11 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 17 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 6 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 19 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 9 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 15 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 7 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 4 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 14 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 19 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 17 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 19 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 8 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 7 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 10 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 15 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 20 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 13 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 11 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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