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Jaylen Armstrong

Jaylen Armstrong

PF

Nashville Stars · Versatile Big / Helper

College: Duke · St. George, Virginia

Cerebral board-crashing forward

A fringe power forward averaging 4.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 0.4 APG. Excels in isolation scoring (20 rating, 100th pctl), offensive rebounding (20 rating, 100th pctl) and strength (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by shoot off dribble (1 rating, 2nd pctl) and three-point shooting (5 rating, 4th pctl).

37
Impact
27
Future
3.5
CA
1.0
PA
34
Age
$10.0M
Salary
3.004
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(4)
O Glass Cleaner (G) O Floater Game (S) O Iso Scorer (B) D Rim Eraser (B)
Evan Mobley
NBA Comparison
Discount Evan Mobley
2024-25
80%
Style
80%
Level
6'11" · 215lbs
18.0/9.0/3.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Rim protector Rebounder Free throw merchant
Alt comp
Jarrett Allen
2024-25 · 74%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 10.4
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 34 (past peak)
Future Value: 27
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 4.2 20
RPG 2.9 44
APG 0.4 9
SPG 0.2 19
BPG 0.7 62
MPG 10.3 16
Shooting
FG% 0.514 76
3P% - 16
FT% 0.787 37
TS% 0.583 55
Impact
Impact 37 12
Off Impact 35 9
Def Impact 51 59
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 15.0 56
WS 1.2 30
Box Score Impact -4.6 6
Value Over Replacement -0.6 8
Positional BSI -1.53 -3.07

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 14 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0226)
Offensive Rebounding 20 (coef=0.0160)
Rim Protection 18 (coef=0.0168)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 2 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 5 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 3 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 7 (coef=0.0156)
Ball Dominance 9 (coef=0.0152)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 4.2 0.2 +4.0
RPG 2.9 4.8 -1.9
APG 0.4 -0.6 +1.0
SPG 0.2 0.0 +0.2
BPG 0.7 0.9 -0.2
TPG - 0.1
FG% 0.514 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.0 0.2 -0.2
FT% 0.787 0.4 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
12:88%

Positional Fit

Guard 40%
Wing 50%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak Win Model Score. Defense is the primary value driver.

37 / 100 #385 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.83z
On-Court Impact -2.00 (Off -1.80, Def -0.21)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.27z
Win Model Score: 2.9902
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
35
#401
Defense
51
#202
Confidence
74%
845 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: -1.53 Actual: -4.6 -3.07
Significantly underperforming PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

27 / 100 #512 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 19
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 32
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 38
Future Value below current Impact (37) — may be approaching decline

League Percentile Profile

PPG
4
TS%
53
BPM
4
WS/48
23
RAPM
33
USG%
47
PA/100
17
BCI
13

Shot Quality

PA/100
-8.10
Points Added
-24.0
Selection
0.926
FGA
296
Zone Breakdown
Rim
52.3%
172 FGA (58%)
Short Midrange
27.4%
95 FGA (32%)
Long Midrange
26.1%
23 FGA (8%)
Other
60.0%
5 FGA (2%)
Above Break Three
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
3.92
Load Tier
Average
Eff Delta
+0.7%
USG%
18.9%
Tendencies
Salary
$10.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.299

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $10,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
2.990
Expected WM
3.439
Dev Residual
-0.4490
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Model
2.941
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-2.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
J
Jose Vazquez Salt Lake City Saints 23 3.0 97.3% Versatile Big / Helper
D
Duran Hamdy Detroit Mustangs 20 3.0 97.0% Versatile Big / Helper
R
Rayvon Nassar Phoenix Vultures 22 3.5 96.9% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
L
LeAndre Kokal Louisville Colonels 25 4.5 96.4% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
T
Tau Weitzman Oakland Tritons 0 3.0 96.3% Versatile Big / Helper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
34
Peak Win Value
10.4
Years to Peak
-16
Current Win Value
10.4
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.257
Projected Peak WV
2.257
Peak Age
34
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 15 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 12 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 8 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 9 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 8 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 3 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 9 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 11 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 10 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 16 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 18 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 20 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 19 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 14 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 7 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 15 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 20 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 5 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 5 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 2 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 1 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 18 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 14 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 19 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 6 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 14 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 5 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 6 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 10 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 10 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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