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Josh Vickery

Josh Vickery

SG

Detroit Mustangs · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

College: Gonzaga · St. Louis, Missouri

Refined shoot-and-defend guard

A star-level two-way shooting guard averaging 7.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 6.3 APG. Excels in ball handling (20 rating, 100th pctl), passing (20 rating, 100th pctl) and stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by offensive rebounding (5 rating, 15th pctl) and strength (5 rating, 16th pctl).

58
Impact
62
Future
4.5
CA
3.5
PA
32
Age
$6.0M
Salary
3.720
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Floor General (G) O Ankle Breaker (G) O Iso Scorer (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Sniper (B) O Floater Game (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O PnR Maestro (B) D Interceptor (S) D Pick Dodger (B) D Clamps (B)
Tre Jones
NBA Comparison
Tre Jones
2024-25
80%
Style
80%
Level
6'1" · 185lbs
7.0/2.5/5.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Ball handler
Alt comp
Kyle Lowry
2021-22 · 59%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.8
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 32 (past peak)
Future Value: 62
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 7.8 44
RPG 2.0 30
APG 6.3 93
SPG 1.2 72
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 24.9 59
Shooting
FG% 0.465 52
3P% 0.414 82
FT% 0.803 43
TS% 0.607 77
Impact
Impact 58 76
Off Impact 56 72
Def Impact 55 72
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 15.3 59
WS 7.0 88
Box Score Impact 1.1 63
Value Over Replacement 1.6 72
Positional BSI 0.69 +0.41

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 16 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 20 (coef=0.0156)
Stealing 19 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Defensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0160)
Ball Dominance 9 (coef=0.0152)
Help Defense 10 (coef=0.0040)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 7.8 13.2 -5.4
RPG 2.0 2.2 -0.2
APG 6.3 5.2 +1.1
SPG 1.2 1.3 -0.1
BPG 0.1 0.3 -0.2
TPG - 1.4
FG% 0.465 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.414 0.4 +0.1
FT% 0.803 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
84:16%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong Win Model Score. Hidden intangibles add significant value beyond visible skills.

58 / 100 #117 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.22z
On-Court Impact +0.58 (Off -0.53, Def +1.20)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.75z
Win Model Score: 3.7057
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
56
#138
Defense
55
#131
Confidence
99%
2019 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.69 Actual: 1.1 +0.41
Performing in line with PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

62 / 100 #73 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 65
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 65
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 57
Future Value in line with current Impact (58)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
31
TS%
78
BPM
60
WS/48
92
RAPM
51
USG%
9
PA/100
70
BCI
94

Shot Quality

PA/100
+3.64
Points Added
+21.2
Selection
0.991
FGA
581
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
40.8%
277 FGA (48%)
Rim
45.0%
169 FGA (29%)
Short Midrange
37.4%
91 FGA (16%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)
Long Midrange
44.2%
43 FGA (7%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
22.74
Load Tier
Elite
Eff Delta
+3.3%
USG%
12.9%
Tendencies
Salary
$6.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.455

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $6,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.706
Expected WM
3.764
Dev Residual
-0.0583
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.752
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
M
Marcus Pendleton Oakland Tritons 21 3.0 98.2% Secondary Creator / Chaser
T
Tawaski Casuga Detroit Mustangs 26 4.0 97.8% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 97.1% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 97.0% Secondary Creator / Chaser
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 97.0% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
32
Peak Win Value
13.8
Years to Peak
-2
Current Win Value
13.8
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.648
Projected Peak WV
2.648
Peak Age
32
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 10 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 9 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 15 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 16 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 6 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 19 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 19 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 15 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 8 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 5 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 5 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 13 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 20 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 18 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 20 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 17 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 3 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 10 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 11 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 14 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 13 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 11 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 18 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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