Kelvin Grady

Philadelphia Warriors · Roll-and-Cut Big / Mobile Big

College: Florida · Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Savvy rim-protecting forward

A rotation center averaging 1.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.5 APG. Excels in self-creation (20 rating, 100th pctl), post defense (19 rating, 99th pctl) and offensive rebounding (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by quickness (6 rating, 8th pctl) and stealing (7 rating, 19th pctl).

Impact

Future

4.5

3.0

Age

$3.2M

Salary

3.549

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(5)

O Glass Cleaner (S) O Post Hub (B) O Floater Game (B) D Paint Wall (S) D Rim Eraser (B)

NBA Comparison

Isaiah Hartenstein

2023-24

78%

Style

78%

Level

7'0" · 250lbs

7.8/8.3/2.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Rebounder Free throw merchant

Alt comp

Jalen Duren

2024-25 · 65%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 12.2

Stage: Declining

Peak Age: 32 (past peak)

Future Value: 49

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	1.5	7
RPG	2.1	33
APG	0.5	14
SPG	0.2	19
BPG	0.3	48
MPG	7.5	12
Shooting
FG%	0.485	63
3P%	-	16
FT%	0.865	70
TS%	0.556	35
Impact
Impact	45	33
Off Impact	40	17
Def Impact	49	49
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	10.7	18
WS	1.0	27
Box Score Impact	-1.6	28
Value Over Replacement	0.1	35
Positional BSI	1.71	-3.31

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

Post Defense 19 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0226)

Offensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0160)

Rim Protection 18 (coef=0.0168)

Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)

Weaknesses

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 4 (coef=0.0330)

3PT Shooting 9 (coef=0.0196)

Spacing 6 (coef=0.0196)

Passing 10 (coef=0.0156)

Stealing 7 (coef=0.0145)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	1.5	-0.5	+1.9
RPG	2.1	5.3	-3.2
APG	0.5	-1.7	+2.2
SPG	0.2	-0.3	+0.5
BPG	0.3	0.9	-0.7
TPG	-	-0.1
FG%	0.485	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.0	0.2	-0.2
FT%	0.865	0.5	+0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency

13:87%

Positional Fit

Guard 50%

Wing 60%

Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict.

45 / 100 #312 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.23z

On-Court Impact -3.00 (Off -1.92, Def -1.06)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.40z

Win Model Score: 3.5351

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#370

Defense

#247

Confidence

59%

619 min

Position Model (C)

Predicted Positional BSI: 1.71 Actual: -1.6 -3.31

Significantly underperforming C model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

49 / 100 #287 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 47

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 49

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 53

Future Value in line with current Impact (45)

Shot Quality

PA/100

-7.82

Points Added

-8.9

Selection

0.903

FGA

114

Zone Breakdown

Rim

51.6%

62 FGA (54%)

Short Midrange

26.7%

45 FGA (40%)

Above Break Three

0.0%

1 FGA (1%)

Other

100.0%

2 FGA (2%)

Long Midrange

25.0%

4 FGA (4%)

Tendencies

Salary

$3.2M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.425

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$3,250,000	Signed contract via Free Agency with Philadelphia Warriors

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.535

Expected WM

3.640

Dev Residual

-0.1049

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.433

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-1.5

Dev Status

Behind Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
O	Oumar John	Miami Cyclones	0	2.5	99.2%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big
D	DeAndre Swift	Las Vegas Scorpions	0	5.0	99.1%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Mobile Big
N	Ngor Copa	Oakland Tritons	0	3.0	98.8%	Post Scorer / Anchor Big
M	Martins Tharp	Miami Cyclones	0	2.5	98.8%	Post Scorer / Anchor Big
C	Chase Camby	New York Renegades	20	3.5	98.7%	Post Scorer / Anchor Big

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Declining

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

12.2

Years to Peak

-3

Current Win Value

12.1

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.695

Projected Peak WV

2.714

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.019

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	15	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	17	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	9	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	12	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	12	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	6	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	17	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	6	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	7	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	14	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	19	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	19	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	16	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	15	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	10	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	20	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	12	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	9	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	5	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	4	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	3	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	18	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	17	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	19	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	16	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	17	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	6	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	15	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	9	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	13	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	6	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	12	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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