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Kourtlin Bechard

Kourtlin Bechard

SG

Toronto Huskies · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: BYU · Grandview, Missouri

Refined two-way shooting guard

A fringe shooting guard averaging 15.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.0 APG. Excels in playmaking (19 rating, 99th pctl), quickness (17 rating, 95th pctl) and athleticism (17 rating, 93rd pctl). Limited by foul drawing (9 rating, 12th pctl) and endurance (7 rating, 17th pctl).

29
Impact
57
Future
4.5
CA
5.0
PA
20
Age
$2.9M
Salary
3.307
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(8)
O Floor General (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Sniper (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Shot Creator (B) D Pick Dodger (B) D Help Defender (B)
RJ Barrett
NBA Comparison
RJ Barrett
2024-25
74%
Style
74%
Level
6'6" · 214lbs
21.1/6.3/5.4 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Ball handler
Alt comp
Franz Wagner
2024-25 · 74%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 16.2
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)
Future Value: 57
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 15.1 78
RPG 4.3 64
APG 5.0 87
SPG 1.5 84
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 28.9 68
Shooting
FG% 0.386 10
3P% 0.344 45
FT% 0.895 86
TS% 0.502 9
Impact
Impact 29 6
Off Impact 38 13
Def Impact 39 14
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 15.1 57
WS 1.2 30
Box Score Impact -0.9 36
Value Over Replacement 0.7 55
Positional BSI 0.78 -1.68

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 15 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 16 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 14 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 17 (coef=0.0156)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 5 (coef=0.0333)
Rim Protection 4 (coef=0.0168)
First Step 10 (coef=0.0112)
Foul Drawing 9 (coef=0.0102)
Endurance 7 (coef=0.0098)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 15.1 14.6 +0.5
RPG 4.3 5.0 -0.7
APG 5.0 4.9 +0.1
SPG 1.5 1.1 +0.4
BPG 0.1 0.5 -0.4
TPG - 1.6
FG% 0.386 0.5 -0.1
3P% 0.344 0.3 -0.0
FT% 0.895 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
16:84%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Replacement-level score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict.

29 / 100 #415 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.16z
On-Court Impact -2.82 (Off -1.91, Def -0.91)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.74z
Win Model Score: 3.2916
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
38
#384
Defense
39
#382
Confidence
100%
2366 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.78 Actual: -0.9 -1.68
Significantly underperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

57 / 100 #142 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 57
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 57
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 56
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (29) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
72
TS%
4
BPM
34
WS/48
8
RAPM
15
USG%
89
PA/100
16
BCI
75

Shot Quality

PA/100
-9.02
Points Added
-110.3
Selection
0.975
FGA
1223
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
34.2%
555 FGA (45%)
Rim
43.8%
354 FGA (29%)
Short Midrange
31.4%
236 FGA (19%)
Long Midrange
33.8%
77 FGA (6%)
Other
100.0%
1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
14.10
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-7.6%
USG%
25.9%
Tendencies
Salary
$2.9M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
Team Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.396

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $2,850,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.292
Expected WM
3.308
Dev Residual
-0.0160
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.072
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 97.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 97.6% Glue Guy / Chaser
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 97.0% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
O
Orlando Fitzpatrick Chicago Jailbirds 0 4.0 97.0% Secondary Creator / Chaser
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 96.5% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
16.2
Years to Peak
6
Current Win Value
12.8
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.635
Projected Peak WV
3.330
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
9
WV Growth
+0.695

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 9 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 14 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 14 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 19 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 11 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 11 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 15 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 12 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 8 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 11 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 17 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 10 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 16 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 17 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 14 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 4 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 16 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 5 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 15 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 7 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 15 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 10 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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