LaRon Adams

Seattle Thunder · Movement Shooter / Wing Stopper

College: Bradley · Richmond, Illinois

Intelligent 3-and-d guard

A fringe wing averaging 13.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.0 APG. Excels in mid-range shooting (19 rating, 100th pctl), stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and free throws (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by post defense (2 rating, 15th pctl) and rim protection (2 rating, 15th pctl).

Impact

Future

4.5

3.5

Age

$8.2M

Salary

3.679

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(10)

O Iso Scorer (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Sniper (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Floater Game (B) O Slasher (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Shot Creator (B) D Interceptor (S)

NBA Comparison

Donte DiVincenzo

2023-24

81%

Style

81%

Level

6'4" · 203lbs

15.5/3.7/2.7 (PPG/RPG/APG)

3PT specialist

Alt comp

Andrew Wiggins

2024-25 · 76%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 13.6

Stage: Declining

Peak Age: 29 (past peak)

Future Value: 58

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	13.9	73
RPG	5.3	75
APG	2.0	54
SPG	1.5	84
BPG	0.1	33
MPG	31.2	80
Shooting
FG%	0.434	29
3P%	0.382	66
FT%	0.938	98
TS%	0.576	49
Impact
Impact	42	21
Off Impact	48	44
Def Impact	35	8
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	13.1	36
WS	5.4	79
Box Score Impact	1.8	71
Value Over Replacement	2.4	84
Positional BSI	-0.09	+1.89

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)

Defensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0226)

3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)

Stealing 19 (coef=0.0145)

Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)

Weaknesses

Post Defense 2 (coef=0.0333)

Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)

Passing 9 (coef=0.0156)

Speed 10 (coef=-0.0030)

Quickness 8 (coef=-0.0020)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	13.9	17.6	-3.7
RPG	5.3	6.2	-0.9
APG	2.0	3.0	-1.0
SPG	1.5	1.5	+0.0
BPG	0.1	0.4	-0.3
TPG	-	1.8
FG%	0.434	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.382	0.4	+0.0
FT%	0.938	0.5	+0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency

72:28%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%

Wing 90%

Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Offense is the primary value driver.

42 / 100 #353 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.29z

On-Court Impact -3.15 (Off -1.02, Def -2.14)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.54z

Win Model Score: 3.6641

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#259

Defense

#406

Confidence

100%

2555 min

Position Model (SF)

Predicted Positional BSI: -0.09 Actual: 1.8 +1.89

Significantly outperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

58 / 100 #122 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 60

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 61

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 52

Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (42) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-4.96

Points Added

-63.4

Selection

1.054

FGA

1280

Zone Breakdown

Short Midrange

38.0%

200 FGA (16%)

Above Break Three

38.0%

663 FGA (52%)

Rim

46.8%

342 FGA (27%)

Long Midrange

38.7%

75 FGA (6%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

5.38

Load Tier

Average

Eff Delta

+0.0%

USG%

18.9%

Tendencies

Salary

$8.2M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.372

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$8,250,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.664

Expected WM

3.778

Dev Residual

-0.1143

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.579

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-1.0

Dev Status

Behind Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
A	Arik Mills	Minneapolis Blizzards	27	4.5	98.5%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
Z	Zaire Phifer	Las Vegas Scorpions	24	5.0	98.3%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
A	Andrew Buller	Cincinnati Kings	30	4.5	97.9%	Stationary Shooter / Wing Stopper
G	Gregor Zorko	Toronto Huskies	20	3.0	97.8%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
A	Arif Langston	Chicago Jailbirds	29	5.0	97.7%	Stationary Shooter / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Declining

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

13.6

Years to Peak

-2

Current Win Value

13.4

Confidence

MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.545

Projected Peak WV

2.580

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.035

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	15	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	14	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	18	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	13	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	16	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	13	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	9	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	14	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	19	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	15	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	18	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	16	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	8	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	9	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	9	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	17	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	17	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	17	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	18	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	18	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	13	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	2	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	17	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	2	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	15	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	15	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	10	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	19	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	17	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	19	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	8	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	12	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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