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Lonzo Waterman

Lonzo Waterman

SG

New Orleans Hurricanes · Secondary Creator / Chaser

College: Cincinnati · Box Elder, South Dakota

Explosive shoot-and-defend forward

A solid shooting guard averaging 11.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.1 APG. Excels in basketball IQ (20 rating, 100th pctl), free throws (20 rating, 100th pctl) and strength (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by post execution (2 rating, 19th pctl).

55
Impact
68
Future
5.0
CA
4.0
PA
25
Age
$3.0M
Salary
3.853
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(18)
O Floater Game (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Slasher (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Floor General (S) O Posterizer (S) O Speed Demon (S) O Glass Cleaner (S) O Ankle Breaker (S) O Gravity Generator (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Sniper (B) O Lob Threat (B) D Chasedown Artist (B) D Interceptor (B) D Clamps (B) D Help Defender (B) D Pick Dodger (B)
Donovan Mitchell
NBA Comparison
Budget Donovan Mitchell
2024-25
84%
Style
84%
Level
6'3" · 215lbs
24.0/4.5/5.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
De'Aaron Fox
2024-25 · 79%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.2
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (4yr away)
Future Value: 68
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 11.0 62
RPG 2.7 40
APG 3.1 69
SPG 1.2 72
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 18.4 42
Shooting
FG% 0.432 28
3P% 0.351 51
FT% 0.954 100
TS% 0.571 46
Impact
Impact 55 69
Off Impact 57 74
Def Impact 51 59
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 19.3 91
WS 2.8 52
Box Score Impact 3.5 88
Value Over Replacement 1.3 69
Positional BSI 2.57 +0.93

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Defensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0226)
Spacing 18 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Stealing 16 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 5 (coef=0.0333)
3PT Shooting 13 (coef=0.0196)
Foul Drawing 13 (coef=0.0102)
Endurance 8 (coef=0.0098)
Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 11.0 9.3 +1.7
RPG 2.7 4.0 -1.3
APG 3.1 3.0 +0.1
SPG 1.2 0.9 +0.3
BPG 0.2 0.5 -0.3
TPG - 1.1
FG% 0.432 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.351 0.3 +0.1
FT% 0.954 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
42:58%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by solid Win Model Score.

55 / 100 #150 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.10z
On-Court Impact +0.28 (Off +0.38, Def -0.10)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.72z
Win Model Score: 3.8368
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
57
#122
Defense
51
#202
Confidence
81%
974 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 2.57 Actual: 3.5 +0.93
Outperforming PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

68 / 100 #27 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 71
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 71
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 62
Future Value above current Impact (55) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
52
TS%
43
BPM
87
WS/48
80
RAPM
37
USG%
87
PA/100
32

Shot Quality

PA/100
-4.11
Points Added
-20.7
Selection
0.988
FGA
504
Zone Breakdown
Long Midrange
26.3%
19 FGA (4%)
Above Break Three
34.8%
227 FGA (45%)
Rim
50.6%
172 FGA (34%)
Short Midrange
32.9%
85 FGA (17%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)
Tendencies
Salary
$3.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.516

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $3,000,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with New Orleans Hurricanes

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.837
Expected WM
3.495
Dev Residual
+0.3418
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.245
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
S
Sebastian Steinbach Denver Dragons 23 4.0 97.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Daevon Nash Oakland Tritons 23 5.0 96.7% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
D
Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 20 4.0 96.4% Glue Guy / Chaser
D
Decensae Nyeko Portland Lumberjacks 0 2.5 95.9% Glue Guy / Mobile Big
A
Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 30 4.5 95.9% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.2
Years to Peak
4
Current Win Value
14.3
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.878
Projected Peak WV
3.050
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
4
WV Growth
+0.172

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 13 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 14 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 13 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 18 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 15 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 16 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 19 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 14 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 19 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 9 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 19 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 17 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 13 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 17 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 14 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 17 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 12 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 5 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 20 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 8 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 19 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 20 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 18 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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