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Mahmoud Abdur-Rahman

Mahmoud Abdur-Rahman

SG

New Orleans Hurricanes · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Duke · Hyattsville, Maryland

Long ball-moving forward

A solid shooting guard averaging 9.2 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.5 APG. Excels in three-point shooting (19 rating, 99th pctl), finishing (19 rating, 98th pctl) and passing (19 rating, 98th pctl). Limited by help defense (9 rating, 11th pctl) and mid-range shooting (8 rating, 19th pctl).

56
Impact
58
Future
4.0
CA
3.5
PA
31
Age
$3.2M
Salary
3.710
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Gravity Generator (S) O Floater Game (S) O Lob Threat (S) O PnR Maestro (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Floor General (B) O Slasher (B) O Posterizer (B) O Sniper (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Iso Scorer (B) D Clamps (B) D Pick Dodger (B) D Versatile Defender (B)
Tyler Herro
NBA Comparison
Budget Tyler Herro
2024-25
89%
Style
89%
Level
6'5" · 195lbs
23.9/5.2/5.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist
Alt comp
Coby White
2024-25 · 83%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.4
Stage: Declining
Peak Age: 31 (past peak)
Future Value: 58
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 9.2 54
RPG 2.1 33
APG 2.5 62
SPG 0.7 52
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 18.1 42
Shooting
FG% 0.48 61
3P% 0.374 62
FT% 0.701 17
TS% 0.584 56
Impact
Impact 56 71
Off Impact 62 86
Def Impact 44 24
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 14.8 53
WS 2.7 50
Box Score Impact 1.4 65
Value Over Replacement 1.1 65
Positional BSI -0.09 +1.49

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Ball Dominance 17 (coef=0.0152)
Weaknesses
Defensive Rebounding 10 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)
Stealing 8 (coef=0.0145)
Post Execution 3 (coef=0.0074)
Mid-Range Shooting 8 (coef=0.0069)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 9.2 10.1 -0.9
RPG 2.1 2.5 -0.4
APG 2.5 2.8 -0.3
SPG 0.7 0.5 +0.2
BPG 0.2 0.3 -0.1
TPG - 1.0
FG% 0.48 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.374 0.4 -0.0
FT% 0.701 0.5 +0.2

Play Style

Driving Frequency
81:19%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by solid Win Model Score. Offense is the primary value driver.

56 / 100 #133 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.32z
On-Court Impact +0.82 (Off +1.27, Def -0.45)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.43z
Win Model Score: 3.6926
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
62
#67
Defense
44
#341
Confidence
90%
1251 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.09 Actual: 1.4 +1.49
Significantly outperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

58 / 100 #120 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 58
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 61
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 58
Future Value in line with current Impact (56)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
42
TS%
54
BPM
62
WS/48
54
RAPM
67
USG%
66
PA/100
79

Shot Quality

PA/100
+6.12
Points Added
+33.1
Selection
1.002
FGA
541
Zone Breakdown
Short Midrange
39.8%
88 FGA (16%)
Above Break Three
37.2%
239 FGA (44%)
Rim
57.5%
181 FGA (34%)
Long Midrange
45.5%
33 FGA (6%)
Tendencies
Salary
$3.2M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.485

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $3,250,000 Signed contract via Free Agency with New Orleans Hurricanes

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.693
Expected WM
3.718
Dev Residual
-0.0252
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.785
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-0.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 98.4% Secondary Creator / Chaser
L
Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warriors 24 3.5 97.7% Slasher / Wing Stopper
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 97.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Damjan Nemanič Los Angeles Fireballs 30 4.5 97.6% Post Bully / Mobile Big
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 96.9% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Declining
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Value
13.4
Years to Peak
-5
Current Win Value
13.4
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.848
Projected Peak WV
2.848
Peak Age
31
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 14 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 9 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 13 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 10 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 3 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 15 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 8 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 10 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 10 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 13 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 14 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 19 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 11 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 18 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 3 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 13 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 18 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 10 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 9 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 12 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 13 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 8 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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