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Victor Mbaya

Victor Mbaya

PG

Nashville Stars · Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

Saint-Amand-Montrond, France

Savvy shoot-and-defend guard

A solid point guard averaging 5.4 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 2.8 APG. Excels in stealing (20 rating, 100th pctl), passing (19 rating, 98th pctl) and interior scoring (19 rating, 97th pctl). Limited by finishing (7 rating, 3rd pctl) and strength (4 rating, 11th pctl).

50
Impact
59
Future
3.5
CA
3.0
PA
21
Age
$5.5M
Salary
3.482
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(8)
O Iso Scorer (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Floor General (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Speed Demon (B) D Interceptor (B) D Pick Dodger (B) D Help Defender (B)
Marcus Smart
NBA Comparison
Marcus Smart
2022-23
76%
Style
76%
Level
6'3" · 220lbs
11.5/3.1/6.3 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Kyle Lowry
2021-22 · 65%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.4
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (9yr away)
Future Value: 59
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 5.4 27
RPG 1.1 14
APG 2.8 65
SPG 0.9 60
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 14.4 28
Shooting
FG% 0.358 6
3P% 0.342 44
FT% 0.8 43
TS% 0.561 40
Impact
Impact 50 51
Off Impact 54 65
Def Impact 45 28
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating - 12
WS 1.0 27
Box Score Impact -2.0 24
Value Over Replacement - 29
Positional BSI 0.28 -2.28

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Stealing 20 (coef=0.0145)
Shoot Off Dribble 15 (coef=0.0134)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 9 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 4 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0160)
Finishing 7 (coef=0.0023)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 5.4 4.7 +0.7
RPG 1.1 0.8 +0.3
APG 2.8 3.4 -0.6
SPG 0.9 1.0 -0.1
BPG 0.1 0.0 +0.1
TPG - 0.6
FG% 0.358 0.5 -0.1
3P% 0.342 0.3 +0.1
FT% 0.8 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
17:83%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by weak Hidden Rating Impact.

50 / 100 #223 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.03z
On-Court Impact -0.04 (Off +0.07, Def -0.11)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.04z
Win Model Score: 3.4665
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
54
#166
Defense
45
#329
Confidence
64%
691 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.28 Actual: -2.0 -2.28
Significantly underperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

59 / 100 #109 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 56
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 55
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 68
Future Value above current Impact (50) — trajectory is positive

Shot Quality

PA/100
+5.92
Points Added
+13.6
Selection
0.984
FGA
230
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
41.1%
107 FGA (46%)
Rim
53.8%
65 FGA (28%)
Long Midrange
31.6%
19 FGA (8%)
Short Midrange
33.3%
39 FGA (17%)
Tendencies
Salary
$5.5M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
Player Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.460

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $5,500,000 Re-signed with Nashville Stars
2051-52 $5,500,000
Total Owed $11,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.466
Expected WM
3.011
Dev Residual
+0.4558
Peak Age
30
Peak Win Model
4.071
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-0.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Daniel Cazorla Phoenix Vultures 18 2.5 98.9% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
K
Kalil Valenti Oakland Tritons 0 2.5 98.6% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
J
Josh Baker Nashville Stars 23 3.0 98.5% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
D
Dantrell Blackman Louisville Colonels 24 4.0 98.4% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
A
Ahsante Clinkscales Dallas Predators 20 3.0 98.4% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.4
Years to Peak
9
Current Win Value
12.8
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.344
Projected Peak WV
2.834
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
8
WV Growth
+0.490

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 17 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 16 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 11 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 11 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 7 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 16 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 20 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 7 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 9 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 5 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 4 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 7 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 17 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 15 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 13 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 15 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 4 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 4 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 14 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 15 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 15 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 15 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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