Josh Baker

Nashville Stars · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Traralgon, Australia

3-and-d guard

A fringe shooting guard averaging 4.1 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 3.1 APG. Excels in quickness (17 rating, 95th pctl), endurance (16 rating, 91st pctl) and ball handling (18 rating, 88th pctl). Limited by athleticism (5 rating, 5th pctl) and basketball IQ (9 rating, 7th pctl).

Impact

Future

3.0

1.5

Age

$5.0M

Salary

2.966

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(1)

O Ankle Breaker (B)

NBA Comparison

Marcus Smart

2022-23

77%

Style

77%

Level

6'3" · 220lbs

11.5/3.1/6.3 (PPG/RPG/APG)

3PT specialist Ball handler

Alt comp

Tre Jones

2024-25 · 70%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 13.0

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (7yr away)

Future Value: 41

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	4.1	19
RPG	1.1	14
APG	3.1	69
SPG	0.7	52
BPG	0.1	33
MPG	14.2	26
Shooting
FG%	0.424	22
3P%	0.354	51
FT%	0.913	92
TS%	0.543	26
Impact
Impact	41	19
Off Impact	43	26
Def Impact	45	28
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	13.6	42
WS	1.9	38
Box Score Impact	-4.1	8
Value Over Replacement	-0.6	8
Positional BSI	-1.24	-2.86

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)

Passing 17 (coef=0.0156)

Stealing 17 (coef=0.0145)

Shoot Off Dribble 14 (coef=0.0134)

Endurance 16 (coef=0.0098)

Weaknesses

Post Defense 5 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0226)

3PT Shooting 13 (coef=0.0196)

Spacing 8 (coef=0.0196)

Rim Protection 3 (coef=0.0168)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	4.1	4.4	-0.3
RPG	1.1	0.7	+0.4
APG	3.1	3.2	-0.1
SPG	0.7	0.8	-0.1
BPG	0.1	0.1	+0.0
TPG	-	0.5
FG%	0.424	0.5	-0.1
3P%	0.354	0.3	+0.1
FT%	0.913	0.5	+0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency

18:82%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%

Wing 80%

Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak Win Model Score.

41 / 100 #363 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.05z

On-Court Impact -0.07 (Off -0.49, Def +0.42)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.38z

Win Model Score: 2.9532

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#339

Defense

#329

Confidence

86%

1118 min

Position Model (PG)

Predicted Positional BSI: -1.24 Actual: -4.1 -2.86

Significantly underperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

41 / 100 #415 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 39

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 38

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 46

Future Value in line with current Impact (41)

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-1.09

Points Added

-3.2

Selection

0.967

FGA

293

Zone Breakdown

Rim

46.8%

79 FGA (27%)

Above Break Three

35.1%

131 FGA (45%)

Short Midrange

40.7%

54 FGA (18%)

Other

0.0%

1 FGA (0%)

Long Midrange

42.9%

28 FGA (10%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

17.96

Load Tier

Poor

Eff Delta

-3.2%

USG%

14.0%

Tendencies

Salary

$5.0M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.313

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$5,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

2.953

Expected WM

3.145

Dev Residual

-0.1920

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.247

PA Tier

Low

Upside Gap

-1.5

Dev Status

Behind Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
N	Nico Gillespie	Mexico City Jaguars	30	4.0	97.2%	Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
M	Martynas Rutkauskas	Charlotte Drones	23	3.0	96.3%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
A	Anthony Beamer	Miami Cyclones	24	4.0	96.1%	Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
T	Toso Benhayoune	Salt Lake City Saints	24	4.0	96.0%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
D	Darius Blackwell	New Orleans Hurricanes	21	4.0	95.8%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

13.0

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

11.0

Confidence

MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.069

Projected Peak WV

2.440

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.370

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	15	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	15	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	14	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	11	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	16	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	8	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	6	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	14	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	17	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	12	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	6	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	6	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	3	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	12	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	17	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	14	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	10	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	13	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	18	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	17	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	14	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	3	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	14	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	5	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	9	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	16	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	14	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	16	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	7	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	10	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	17	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	5	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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