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Xavier Yates

Xavier Yates

SG

Chicago Jailbirds · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: UConn · Houston, Texas

Refined two-way shooting wing

A rotation shooting guard averaging 9.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.9 APG. Excels in playmaking (19 rating, 99th pctl), finishing (19 rating, 98th pctl) and endurance (16 rating, 91st pctl). Limited by interior scoring (13 rating, 7th pctl) and basketball IQ (10 rating, 13th pctl).

44
Impact
64
Future
4.5
CA
3.5
PA
20
Age
$2.0M
Salary
3.833
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(8)
O Gravity Generator (S) O Sniper (B) O Slasher (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Floor General (B)
Austin Reaves
NBA Comparison
Austin Reaves
2024-25
72%
Style
72%
Level
6'5" · 197lbs
19.0/5.0/6.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Darius Garland
2024-25 · 68%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 16.8
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)
Future Value: 64
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 9.5 56
RPG 2.8 43
APG 3.9 80
SPG 1.1 68
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 19.3 44
Shooting
FG% 0.431 27
3P% 0.384 67
FT% 0.762 30
TS% 0.549 30
Impact
Impact 44 28
Off Impact 50 52
Def Impact 38 12
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 16.6 72
WS 4.6 73
Box Score Impact 3.2 84
Value Over Replacement 2.1 79
Positional BSI 1.77 +1.43

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 17 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 18 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 14 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 15 (coef=0.0156)
Weaknesses
Inside Shooting 13 (coef=0.0155)
Foul Drawing 13 (coef=0.0102)
Athleticism 11 (coef=-0.0094)
Basketball IQ 10 (coef=0.0078)
Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 9.5 10.5 -1.0
RPG 2.8 3.5 -0.7
APG 3.9 2.4 +1.5
SPG 1.1 0.8 +0.3
BPG 0.1 0.5 -0.4
TPG - 1.1
FG% 0.431 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.384 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.762 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
71:29%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Offense is the primary value driver.

44 / 100 #329 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.01z
On-Court Impact -2.46 (Off -0.61, Def -1.85)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.46z
Win Model Score: 3.8183
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
50
#221
Defense
38
#393
Confidence
96%
1583 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.77 Actual: 3.2 +1.43
Significantly outperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

64 / 100 #49 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 65
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 64
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 61
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (44) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
44
TS%
26
BPM
83
WS/48
81
RAPM
4
USG%
63
PA/100
37
BCI
81

Shot Quality

PA/100
-3.10
Points Added
-24.3
Selection
1.026
FGA
784
Zone Breakdown
Short Midrange
33.0%
106 FGA (14%)
Above Break Three
38.8%
369 FGA (47%)
Long Midrange
30.6%
49 FGA (6%)
Rim
48.4%
258 FGA (33%)
Other
50.0%
2 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
17.00
Load Tier
Below Average
Eff Delta
-2.7%
USG%
21.0%
Tendencies
Salary
$2.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.463

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $2,050,000 Chicago Jailbirds exercised option

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.818
Expected WM
3.199
Dev Residual
+0.6193
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.429
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 97.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser
O
Orlando Fitzpatrick Chicago Jailbirds 0 4.0 97.4% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jaleel Usher Oklahoma City Barons 32 4.0 97.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 97.2% Secondary Creator / Chaser
A
Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 30 4.5 96.5% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
16.8
Years to Peak
6
Current Win Value
13.7
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.828
Projected Peak WV
3.458
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
9
WV Growth
+0.630

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 13 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 12 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 14 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 19 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 14 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 19 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 17 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 10 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 7 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 14 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 15 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 15 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 18 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 14 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 16 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 8 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 13 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 9 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 10 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 16 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 12 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 13 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 14 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 14 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 11 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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