Al-Amir Geyen

New Orleans Hurricanes · Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big

College: Alabama · Birmingham, Alabama

Bulldozing shot-blocking center

A fringe center averaging 4.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 0.4 APG. Excels in basketball IQ (20 rating, 100th pctl), help defense (19 rating, 99th pctl) and post defense (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by passing (4 rating, 5th pctl) and free throws (9 rating, 6th pctl).

Impact

Future

4.0

3.0

Age

$6.9M

Salary

3.170

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(7)

O Glass Cleaner (S) O Floater Game (B) O Post Hub (B) D Paint Wall (S) D Rim Eraser (S) D Help Defender (S) D Charge Taker (B)

NBA Comparison

Jalen Duren

2024-25

83%

Style

83%

Level

6'10" · 254lbs

10.0/9.5/2.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Rebounder

Alt comp

Clint Capela

2023-24 · 70%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 11.9

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (3yr away)

Future Value: 38

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	4.4	21
RPG	5.4	76
APG	0.4	9
SPG	0.2	19
BPG	0.7	62
MPG	15.7	32
Shooting
FG%	0.534	82
3P%	-	16
FT%	0.63	9
TS%	0.558	37
Impact
Impact	43	24
Off Impact	35	9
Def Impact	51	59
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	12.4	29
WS	2.1	41
Box Score Impact	-2.5	20
Value Over Replacement	-0.1	21
Positional BSI	-2.08	-0.42

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

Post Defense 19 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 16 (coef=0.0226)

Offensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0160)

Rim Protection 18 (coef=0.0168)

Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)

Weaknesses

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 2 (coef=0.0330)

3PT Shooting 7 (coef=0.0196)

Spacing 3 (coef=0.0196)

Passing 4 (coef=0.0156)

Stealing 9 (coef=0.0145)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	4.4	4.3	+0.1
RPG	5.4	6.4	-1.0
APG	0.4	-1.3	+1.7
SPG	0.2	0.1	+0.1
BPG	0.7	1.2	-0.5
TPG	-	0.4
FG%	0.534	0.5	+0.0
3P%	0.0	0.2	-0.2
FT%	0.63	0.4	+0.2

Play Style

Driving Frequency

95:5%

Positional Fit

Guard 30%

Wing 40%

Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by modest On-Court Impact. Defense is the primary value driver.

43 / 100 #345 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.68z

On-Court Impact -1.62 (Off -1.15, Def -0.47)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.32z

Win Model Score: 3.1548

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#401

Defense

#202

Confidence

82%

1003 min

Position Model (C)

Predicted Positional BSI: -2.08 Actual: -2.5 -0.42

Performing in line with C model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

38 / 100 #446 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 36

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 35

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 43

Future Value below current Impact (43) — may be approaching decline

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-4.34

Points Added

-10.9

Selection

0.980

FGA

252

Zone Breakdown

Rim

51.9%

189 FGA (75%)

Short Midrange

29.6%

54 FGA (21%)

Other

50.0%

4 FGA (2%)

Long Midrange

40.0%

5 FGA (2%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

2.64

Load Tier

Below Average

Eff Delta

-1.6%

USG%

12.1%

Tendencies

Salary

$6.9M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

None

Status

Trade Value

0.407

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$6,900,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

3.155

Expected WM

3.301

Dev Residual

-0.1459

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.392

PA Tier

Medium

Upside Gap

-1.0

Dev Status

Behind Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
J	Jadakiss Hollywood	Houston Lightning	20	2.5	98.7%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big
J	Jaron Frost	Miami Cyclones	0	3.5	98.7%	Post Scorer / Anchor Big
J	Jalen Humphrey	Miami Cyclones	29	4.5	98.6%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big
D	Devon Walton	Philadelphia Warriors	26	4.5	98.2%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Mobile Big
M	Martrevious McClure	Washington Pilots	25	4.5	98.2%	Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

11.9

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

10.8

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.400

Projected Peak WV

2.637

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.237

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	16	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	19	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	8	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	13	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	6	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	3	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	12	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	2	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	9	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	9	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	16	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	19	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	19	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	10	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	4	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	7	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	8	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	7	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	4	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	2	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	5	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	18	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	18	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	19	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	20	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	8	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	5	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	9	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	11	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	6	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	10	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	16	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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