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Bryce McAlister

Bryce McAlister

SG

Portland Lumberjacks · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

College: Wichita State · Scobey, Montana

Refined shoot-and-defend guard

A rotation shooting guard averaging 6.3 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 4.0 APG. Excels in ball handling (19 rating, 98th pctl), passing (19 rating, 98th pctl) and mid-range shooting (18 rating, 97th pctl). Limited by foul drawing (5 rating, 1st pctl) and defensive rebounding (4 rating, 5th pctl).

48
Impact
51
Future
4.0
CA
2.5
PA
26
Age
$6.0M
Salary
3.009
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(11)
O Ankle Breaker (S) O Floor General (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Floater Game (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Speed Demon (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Sniper (B) D Interceptor (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
NBA Comparison
Budget Tyrese Haliburton
2024-25
69%
Style
69%
Level
6'5" · 185lbs
17.0/4.0/9.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Kyle Lowry
2021-22 · 66%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 12.4
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (4yr away)
Future Value: 51
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 6.3 34
RPG 1.1 14
APG 4.0 81
SPG 1.0 64
BPG - 15
MPG 16.0 34
Shooting
FG% 0.475 58
3P% 0.449 91
FT% 0.925 95
TS% 0.603 73
Impact
Impact 48 45
Off Impact 52 59
Def Impact 44 24
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 16.2 68
WS 3.8 64
Box Score Impact 0.1 51
Value Over Replacement 0.7 55
Positional BSI -0.48 +0.58

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Stealing 18 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 4 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 1 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 7 (coef=0.0160)
Foul Drawing 5 (coef=0.0102)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 6.3 6.2 +0.1
RPG 1.1 -0.3 +1.4
APG 4.0 4.2 -0.2
SPG 1.0 0.9 +0.1
BPG 0.0 -0.1 +0.1
TPG - 0.8
FG% 0.475 0.4 +0.0
3P% 0.449 0.4 +0.1
FT% 0.925 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
34:66%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 80%
Big 50%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by weak Win Model Score. Hidden intangibles add significant value beyond visible skills.

48 / 100 #260 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.48z
On-Court Impact +1.22 (Off +0.48, Def +0.76)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.86z
Win Model Score: 2.9933
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
52
#187
Defense
44
#341
Confidence
92%
1308 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: -0.48 Actual: 0.1 +0.58
Outperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

51 / 100 #256 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 45
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 44
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 67
Future Value in line with current Impact (48)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
20
TS%
74
BPM
47
WS/48
79
RAPM
69
USG%
33
PA/100
84
BCI
91

Shot Quality

PA/100
+8.30
Points Added
+37.5
Selection
0.990
FGA
452
Zone Breakdown
Rim
48.5%
134 FGA (30%)
Long Midrange
44.2%
52 FGA (12%)
Above Break Three
43.9%
196 FGA (43%)
Short Midrange
37.1%
70 FGA (16%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
21.63
Load Tier
Good
Eff Delta
+2.8%
USG%
17.0%
Tendencies
Salary
$6.0M
Years Left
3
Expiry
2053
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.382

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $6,000,000 Re-signed with Portland Lumberjacks
2051-52 $6,000,000
2052-53 $6,000,000
Total Owed $18,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
2.993
Expected WM
3.360
Dev Residual
-0.3662
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.258
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
N
Nico Gillespie Mexico City Jaguars 30 4.0 98.0% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 96.7% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
D
Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators 21 4.0 96.6% Slasher / Chaser
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 96.6% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
A
Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones 24 4.0 96.5% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
12.4
Years to Peak
4
Current Win Value
11.6
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.184
Projected Peak WV
2.318
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
3
WV Growth
+0.134

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 5 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 9 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 12 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 12 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 10 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 1 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 15 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 18 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 11 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 4 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 7 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 3 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 14 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 13 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 19 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 17 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 16 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 1 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 4 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 19 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 11 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 18 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 12 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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