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Carmelo Duncan

Carmelo Duncan

C

Portland Lumberjacks · Post Scorer / Mobile Big

College: Marquette · West Seneca, New York

Bruising rim-protecting forward

A rotation center averaging 1.5 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 0.2 APG. Excels in interior scoring (19 rating, 97th pctl), post defense (18 rating, 93rd pctl) and help defense (18 rating, 92nd pctl). Limited by free throws (9 rating, 6th pctl) and perimeter defense (2 rating, 13th pctl).

48
Impact
50
Future
4.5
CA
3.0
PA
23
Age
$2.5M
Salary
3.304
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(5)
O Glass Cleaner (B) O Post Hub (B) O Floater Game (B) D Paint Wall (S) D Rim Eraser (S)
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 1.5 7
RPG 1.1 14
APG 0.2 5
SPG 0.1 10
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 4.6 8
Shooting
FG% 0.526 79
3P% - 16
FT% 0.75 28
TS% 0.577 49
Impact
Impact 48 45
Off Impact 47 40
Def Impact 50 54
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 11.9 24
WS 0.1 12
Box Score Impact -1.1 33
Value Over Replacement - 29
Positional BSI 0.50 -1.60

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 18 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 17 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 18 (coef=0.0168)
Inside Shooting 19 (coef=0.0155)
Offensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0160)
Weaknesses
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 2 (coef=0.0330)
3PT Shooting 10 (coef=0.0196)
Spacing 5 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 9 (coef=0.0156)
Ball Dominance 10 (coef=0.0152)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 1.5 -3.6 +5.1
RPG 1.1 3.7 -2.6
APG 0.2 -1.7 +1.9
SPG 0.1 -0.2 +0.3
BPG 0.2 0.8 -0.6
TPG - -0.4
FG% 0.526 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.0 0.2 -0.2
FT% 0.75 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
83:17%

Positional Fit

Guard 50%
Wing 50%
Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Limited to 79 min — score regressed toward league average.

48 / 100 #260 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.82z
On-Court Impact -1.99 (Off -1.40, Def -0.60)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.29z
Win Model Score: 3.2904
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
47
#275
Defense
50
#223
Confidence
22%
79 min
Position Model (C)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.50 Actual: -1.1 -1.60
Significantly underperforming C model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

50 / 100 #272 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 44
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 43
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 65
Future Value in line with current Impact (48)

Shot Quality

PA/100
+2.58
Points Added
+0.6
Selection
0.883
FGA
22
Zone Breakdown
Rim
46.7%
15 FGA (68%)
Short Midrange
42.9%
7 FGA (32%)
Tendencies
Salary
$2.5M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.464

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $2,500,000 Re-signed with Portland Lumberjacks
2051-52 $2,500,000
Total Owed $5,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.290
Expected WM
3.234
Dev Residual
+0.0562
Peak Age
28
Peak Win Model
3.594
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
K
Kelvin Grady Philadelphia Warriors 30 4.5 98.7% Roll-and-Cut Big / Mobile Big
T
Taron Crosswell Houston Lightning 0 3.0 98.6% Roll-and-Cut Big / Mobile Big
I
Ike Person Jr Seattle Thunder 29 5.0 98.5% Roll-and-Cut Big / Anchor Big
R
Raheem Barkley Las Vegas Scorpions 25 5.0 98.4% Post Bully / Mobile Big
D
Dejon Wright Phoenix Vultures 27 4.0 98.4% Post Scorer / Anchor Big

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
13.0
Years to Peak
4
Current Win Value
11.6
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.519
Projected Peak WV
2.833
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
6
WV Growth
+0.313

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 12 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 18 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 7 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 10 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 15 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 5 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 15 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 13 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 11 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 14 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 17 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 18 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 15 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 8 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 9 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 17 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 10 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 7 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 2 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 3 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 18 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 18 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 12 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 7 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 9 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 9 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 7 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 9 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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