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Cayden Ward

Cayden Ward

SG

Portland Lumberjacks · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack

College: USC · Las Vegas, Nevada

Smooth 3-and-d guard

A solid shooting guard averaging 15.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 8.2 APG. Excels in isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl), free throws (19 rating, 99th pctl) and floor spacing (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by strength (3 rating, 7th pctl) and first step (6 rating, 11th pctl).

51
Impact
48
Future
4.5
CA
4.5
PA
24
Age
$28.5M
Salary
3.556
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(15)
O Floor General (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Shot Creator (S) O Ankle Breaker (S) O Floater Game (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Sniper (S) O Pull-Up Threat (S) O Pop Threat (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Lob Threat (B) D Interceptor (S) D Pick Dodger (B) D Help Defender (B)
Darius Garland
NBA Comparison
Darius Garland
2024-25
75%
Style
75%
Level
6'1" · 192lbs
20.6/2.9/6.7 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Elite playmaker 3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Ja Morant
2024-25 · 74%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.9
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)
Future Value: 48
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 15.7 82
RPG 3.0 45
APG 8.2 99
SPG 1.8 95
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 31.3 81
Shooting
FG% 0.42 20
3P% 0.362 56
FT% 0.94 99
TS% 0.543 26
Impact
Impact 51 55
Off Impact 58 77
Def Impact 42 19
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 18.2 84
WS 7.0 88
Box Score Impact 2.3 77
Value Over Replacement 2.8 88
Positional BSI 1.26 +1.04

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)
Spacing 19 (coef=0.0196)
3PT Shooting 16 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
First Step 6 (coef=0.0112)
Foul Drawing 11 (coef=0.0102)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 15.7 16.7 -1.0
RPG 3.0 3.0 -0.1
APG 8.2 6.2 +2.0
SPG 1.8 1.5 +0.3
BPG 0.1 0.3 -0.2
TPG - 1.9
FG% 0.42 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.362 0.3 +0.0
FT% 0.94 0.5 +0.5

Play Style

Driving Frequency
18:82%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 70%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by solid Win Model Score. Offense is the primary value driver.

51 / 100 #213 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.09z
On-Court Impact -0.17 (Off -0.19, Def +0.02)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.61z
Win Model Score: 3.5376
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
58
#112
Defense
42
#358
Confidence
100%
2562 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.26 Actual: 2.3 +1.04
Significantly outperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

48 / 100 #315 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 63
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 63
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 13
Future Value in line with current Impact (51)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
77
TS%
21
BPM
74
WS/48
74
RAPM
45
USG%
76
PA/100
37
BCI
96

Shot Quality

PA/100
-3.05
Points Added
-40.5
Selection
0.975
FGA
1330
Zone Breakdown
Rim
44.1%
410 FGA (31%)
Above Break Three
35.5%
569 FGA (43%)
Short Midrange
40.1%
227 FGA (17%)
Long Midrange
43.5%
124 FGA (9%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
23.61
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-3.4%
USG%
22.8%
Tendencies
Salary
$28.5M
Years Left
3
Expiry
2053
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.400

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $28,500,000 Re-signed with Portland Lumberjacks
2051-52 $28,500,000
2052-53 $28,500,000
Total Owed $85,500,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.538
Expected WM
3.497
Dev Residual
+0.0407
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.036
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 98.2% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 98.0% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
A
Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones 24 4.0 97.9% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
J
Jade Ahelegbe St Louis Skyhawks 26 4.0 96.9% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
R
Reid Frahm Cincinnati Kings 30 4.0 96.4% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
14.9
Years to Peak
6
Current Win Value
13.5
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.622
Projected Peak WV
2.882
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
5
WV Growth
+0.260

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 11 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 15 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 19 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 19 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 5 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 19 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 16 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 6 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 12 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 3 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 14 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 18 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 19 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 16 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 18 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 18 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 4 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 18 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 11 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 19 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 6 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 18 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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