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Dion Sowder

Dion Sowder

PF

Los Angeles Fireballs · Versatile Big / Chaser

College:
· North Las Vegas, Nevada

Skilled adaptable forward

An elite two-way power forward averaging 18.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 4.0 APG. Excels in athleticism (19 rating, 100th pctl), ball dominance (19 rating, 99th pctl) and defensive rebounding (19 rating, 99th pctl).

72
Impact
70
Future
5.0
CA
5.0
PA
29
Age
$35.0M
Salary
4.406
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(17)
O Lob Threat (S) O Floater Game (S) O Posterizer (S) O Glass Cleaner (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Floor General (S) O PnR Maestro (S) O Slasher (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) D Rim Eraser (S) D Paint Wall (S) D Interceptor (B) D Chasedown Artist (B) D Help Defender (B)
Jayson Tatum
NBA Comparison
Jayson Tatum
2024-25
81%
Style
81%
Level
6'8" · 210lbs
26.8/8.7/6.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer Defensive anchor
Alt comp
Franz Wagner
2024-25 · 74%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 16.0
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 29 (past peak)
Future Value: 70
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 18.5 92
RPG 7.9 87
APG 4.0 81
SPG 1.5 84
BPG 1.4 83
MPG 33.4 95
Shooting
FG% 0.517 77
3P% 0.397 74
FT% 0.778 34
TS% 0.622 84
Impact
Impact 72 95
Off Impact 63 89
Def Impact 71 94
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 18.9 90
WS 8.6 95
Box Score Impact 4.1 91
Value Over Replacement 4.3 97
Positional BSI 3.64 +0.46

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 17 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 16 (coef=0.0196)
Rim Protection 18 (coef=0.0168)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Weaknesses
Spacing 9 (coef=0.0196)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 18.5 19.2 -0.7
RPG 7.9 8.6 -0.7
APG 4.0 4.0 -0.0
SPG 1.5 1.2 +0.3
BPG 1.4 1.6 -0.2
TPG - 1.9
FG% 0.517 0.5 +0.0
3P% 0.397 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.778 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
75:25%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 100%
Big 100%

Player Impact Breakdown

Star-level score driven by exceptional Win Model Score. Ratings suggest higher ceiling than on-court impact reflects — team context may be masking individual value.

72 / 100 #25 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.75z
On-Court Impact +1.90 (Off +0.71, Def +1.18)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +2.08z
Win Model Score: 4.3878
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
63
#60
Defense
71
#34
Confidence
100%
2742 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 3.64 Actual: 4.1 +0.46
Performing in line with PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

70 / 100 #16 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 86
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 87
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 32
Future Value in line with current Impact (72)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
89
TS%
88
BPM
90
WS/48
85
RAPM
71
USG%
66
PA/100
87
BCI
62

Shot Quality

PA/100
+9.37
Points Added
+114.5
Selection
1.006
FGA
1223
Zone Breakdown
Rim
58.6%
442 FGA (36%)
Short Midrange
44.3%
273 FGA (22%)
Above Break Three
40.0%
432 FGA (35%)
Long Midrange
46.4%
69 FGA (6%)
Other
14.3%
7 FGA (1%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
11.01
Load Tier
Elite
Eff Delta
+4.6%
USG%
21.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$35.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
Player Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.616

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $35,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
4.388
Expected WM
4.275
Dev Residual
+0.1131
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Model
4.527
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
E
Evan Lieberman Oklahoma City Barons 30 5.0 98.6% Shot Creator / Wing Stopper
L
LaBradford Reath Detroit Mustangs 24 5.0 98.1% Glue Guy / Helper
D
Drake Walter Vancouver Wolves 28 5.0 97.8% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
S
Semisi Rautins Atlanta Devils 20 5.0 97.5% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
J
Jermaine Clark Miami Cyclones 30 5.0 97.5% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
16.0
Years to Peak
0
Current Win Value
16.0
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
3.367
Projected Peak WV
3.367
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
0
WV Growth
+0.000

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 15 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 17 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 18 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 9 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 12 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 15 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 15 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 17 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 19 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 17 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 16 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 16 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 16 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 17 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 13 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 15 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 18 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 19 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 17 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 15 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 13 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 15 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 13 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 19 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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