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Jeron Davis

Jeron Davis

SG

Louisville Colonels · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: UCLA · Esko, Minnesota

Savvy 3-and-d wing

A solid shooting guard averaging 15.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.8 APG. Excels in ball dominance (19 rating, 99th pctl), foul drawing (19 rating, 98th pctl) and shoot off dribble (18 rating, 97th pctl). Limited by strength (4 rating, 11th pctl) and defensive rebounding (6 rating, 16th pctl).

55
Impact
55
Future
4.5
CA
4.0
PA
22
Age
$20.0M
Salary
3.696
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(12)
O Iso Scorer (S) O Lob Threat (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Floater Game (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Slasher (B) O Gravity Generator (B) O Speed Demon (B) O PnR Maestro (B) D Help Defender (B) D Interceptor (B) D Pick Dodger (B)
Franz Wagner
NBA Comparison
Franz Wagner
2024-25
81%
Style
81%
Level
6'10" · 220lbs
24.2/5.7/4.7 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Ball handler
Alt comp
Donovan Mitchell
2024-25 · 81%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.6
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (4yr away)
Future Value: 55
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 15.1 78
RPG 2.7 40
APG 3.8 78
SPG 1.3 76
BPG 0.3 48
MPG 26.4 62
Shooting
FG% 0.471 55
3P% 0.386 68
FT% 0.814 47
TS% 0.59 61
Impact
Impact 55 69
Off Impact 66 92
Def Impact 39 14
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 17.4 80
WS 5.2 78
Box Score Impact 2.1 74
Value Over Replacement 2.2 81
Positional BSI 1.21 +0.89

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
Ball Dominance 19 (coef=0.0152)
Passing 17 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Spacing 13 (coef=0.0196)
Weaknesses
Defensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 6 (coef=0.0168)
Ball Handling 9 (coef=-0.0080)
Post Execution 2 (coef=0.0074)
Strength 4 (coef=0.0012)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 15.1 14.7 +0.4
RPG 2.7 3.0 -0.3
APG 3.8 3.7 +0.1
SPG 1.3 1.2 +0.1
BPG 0.3 0.6 -0.3
TPG - 1.6
FG% 0.471 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.386 0.3 +0.1
FT% 0.814 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
76:24%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by solid Win Model Score. Offense is the primary value driver.

55 / 100 #150 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.11z
On-Court Impact +0.32 (Off +1.39, Def -0.98)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.56z
Win Model Score: 3.6783
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
66
#39
Defense
39
#382
Confidence
99%
2163 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.21 Actual: 2.1 +0.89
Outperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

55 / 100 #171 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 62
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 61
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 40
Future Value in line with current Impact (55)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
72
TS%
60
BPM
71
WS/48
62
RAPM
49
USG%
82
PA/100
67
BCI
70

Shot Quality

PA/100
+2.90
Points Added
+34.6
Selection
1.004
FGA
1193
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
38.3%
481 FGA (40%)
Short Midrange
41.3%
167 FGA (14%)
Rim
51.8%
448 FGA (38%)
Long Midrange
38.9%
95 FGA (8%)
Other
100.0%
2 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
12.65
Load Tier
Good
Eff Delta
+1.3%
USG%
23.9%
Tendencies
Salary
$20.0M
Years Left
3
Expiry
2053
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.527

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $20,000,000 Re-signed with Louisville Colonels
2051-52 $20,000,000
2052-53 $20,000,000
Total Owed $60,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.678
Expected WM
3.340
Dev Residual
+0.3388
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.242
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
-0.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
V
Viktor Morozov Cleveland Giants 0 3.0 97.8% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 97.8% Secondary Creator / Chaser
D
Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators 21 4.0 96.9% Slasher / Chaser
L
Lenzelle Ndefo Philadelphia Warriors 24 3.5 96.9% Slasher / Wing Stopper
J
Jaleel Porter Chicago Jailbirds 20 3.0 96.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.6
Years to Peak
4
Current Win Value
13.4
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.638
Projected Peak WV
3.081
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
7
WV Growth
+0.442

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 19 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 16 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 13 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 11 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 15 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 18 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 6 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 11 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 4 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 17 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 17 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 16 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 18 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 15 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 9 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 18 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 6 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 10 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 15 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 13 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 15 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 13 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 16 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 15 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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