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Kahlil Justice

Kahlil Justice

SG

Salt Lake City Saints · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: BYU · Cincinnati, Ohio

Polished 3-and-d wing

A rotation scoring shooting guard averaging 20.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 5.4 APG. Excels in perimeter defense (19 rating, 99th pctl), floor spacing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and passing (19 rating, 98th pctl). Limited by post defense (4 rating, 24th pctl).

49
Impact
60
Future
4.5
CA
4.5
PA
21
Age
$5.7M
Salary
3.665
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Floor General (S) O Catch & Shoot (S) O Gravity Generator (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Sniper (B) O Floater Game (B) O Slasher (B) O Posterizer (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) D Clamps (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Donovan Mitchell
NBA Comparison
Donovan Mitchell
2024-25
88%
Style
88%
Level
6'3" · 215lbs
24.0/4.5/5.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Ball handler
Alt comp
Franz Wagner
2024-25 · 77%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 15.7
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (5yr away)
Future Value: 60
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 20.4 95
RPG 3.4 52
APG 5.4 89
SPG 1.8 95
BPG 0.3 48
MPG 33.7 96
Shooting
FG% 0.451 40
3P% 0.359 54
FT% 0.861 68
TS% 0.572 47
Impact
Impact 49 49
Off Impact 67 94
Def Impact 19 0
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 17.4 80
WS 3.9 66
Box Score Impact -1.8 26
Value Over Replacement 0.2 40
Positional BSI 0.79 -2.59

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 (coef=0.0330)
Spacing 19 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 19 (coef=0.0156)
Ball Dominance 17 (coef=0.0152)
Foul Drawing 17 (coef=0.0102)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 9 (coef=0.0226)
Rim Protection 6 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0160)
Inside Shooting 15 (coef=0.0155)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 20.4 19.4 +0.9
RPG 3.4 4.8 -1.4
APG 5.4 5.6 -0.2
SPG 1.8 1.3 +0.5
BPG 0.3 0.8 -0.5
TPG - 2.0
FG% 0.451 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.359 0.3 +0.0
FT% 0.861 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
47:53%

Positional Fit

Guard 80%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Average score driven by modest On-Court Impact. Offense is the primary value driver.

49 / 100 #241 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.53z
On-Court Impact -1.26 (Off +1.86, Def -3.13)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.53z
Win Model Score: 3.6489
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
67
#34
Defense
19
#434
Confidence
100%
2761 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 0.79 Actual: -1.8 -2.59
Significantly underperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

60 / 100 #103 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 63
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 62
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 55
Future Value above current Impact (49) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
94
TS%
44
BPM
23
WS/48
25
RAPM
31
USG%
89
PA/100
53
BCI
74

Shot Quality

PA/100
-0.20
Points Added
-2.9
Selection
0.997
FGA
1439
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
35.5%
634 FGA (44%)
Rim
56.8%
475 FGA (33%)
Long Midrange
30.1%
136 FGA (10%)
Short Midrange
35.2%
193 FGA (13%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
13.72
Load Tier
Average
Eff Delta
-0.6%
USG%
25.9%
Tendencies
Salary
$5.7M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.460

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $5,650,000 Salt Lake City Saints exercised option

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.649
Expected WM
3.328
Dev Residual
+0.3209
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.317
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 98.2% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 97.9% Secondary Creator / Chaser
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 97.7% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
A
Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones 24 4.0 97.4% Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
M
Marcus Pendleton Oakland Tritons 21 3.0 97.1% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
15.7
Years to Peak
5
Current Win Value
13.4
Confidence
LOW

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.645
Projected Peak WV
3.092
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
8
WV Growth
+0.447

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 17 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 19 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 6 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 17 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 11 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 18 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 9 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 8 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 16 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 15 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 19 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 15 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 17 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 15 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 16 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 19 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 11 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 6 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 15 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 4 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 16 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 17 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 10 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 15 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 17 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 14 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 14 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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