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Terrence Swan

Terrence Swan

SG

Louisville Colonels · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Duke · Jacksonville, Florida

Polished shoot-and-defend guard

A solid scoring shooting guard averaging 17.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.0 APG. Excels in off-ball defense (19 rating, 99th pctl), floor spacing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and endurance (17 rating, 96th pctl). Limited by rim protection (2 rating, 15th pctl) and strength (6 rating, 20th pctl).

57
Impact
57
Future
5.0
CA
3.5
PA
27
Age
$25.0M
Salary
3.765
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(14)
O Sniper (S) O PnR Maestro (S) O Floor General (S) O Ankle Breaker (S) O Speed Demon (S) O Gravity Generator (S) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Iso Scorer (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O Floater Game (B) D Interceptor (S) D Pick Dodger (B)
Damian Lillard
NBA Comparison
Damian Lillard
2024-25
82%
Style
82%
Level
6'2" · 195lbs
24.9/4.7/7.1 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Ball handler
Alt comp
De'Aaron Fox
2024-25 · 78%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.3
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (3yr away)
Future Value: 57
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 17.9 90
RPG 4.7 70
APG 5.0 87
SPG 1.7 93
BPG 0.1 33
MPG 34.2 97
Shooting
FG% 0.463 48
3P% 0.362 56
FT% 0.887 83
TS% 0.584 56
Impact
Impact 57 73
Off Impact 64 89
Def Impact 35 8
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 17.0 76
WS 7.1 89
Box Score Impact 3.0 81
Value Over Replacement 3.4 92
Positional BSI 1.17 +1.83

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 (coef=0.0330)
Spacing 19 (coef=0.0196)
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 18 (coef=0.0156)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0168)
Help Defense 12 (coef=0.0040)
Finishing 13 (coef=0.0023)
Strength 6 (coef=0.0012)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 17.9 20.1 -2.2
RPG 4.7 5.0 -0.3
APG 5.0 5.9 -0.9
SPG 1.7 1.6 +0.1
BPG 0.1 0.5 -0.4
TPG - 2.1
FG% 0.463 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.362 0.4 +0.0
FT% 0.887 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
43:57%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong Win Model Score. Ratings suggest higher ceiling than on-court impact reflects — team context may be masking individual value. Offense is the primary value driver.

57 / 100 #125 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.17z
On-Court Impact -0.38 (Off +0.80, Def -1.27)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.11z
Win Model Score: 3.7482
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
64
#49
Defense
35
#406
Confidence
100%
2704 min
Position Model (PG)
Predicted Positional BSI: 1.17 Actual: 3.0 +1.83
Significantly outperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

57 / 100 #131 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 67
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 66
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 35
Future Value in line with current Impact (57)

League Percentile Profile

PPG
88
TS%
54
BPM
80
WS/48
70
RAPM
43
USG%
71
PA/100
61
BCI
70

Shot Quality

PA/100
+1.53
Points Added
+22.3
Selection
0.990
FGA
1452
Zone Breakdown
Short Midrange
44.5%
209 FGA (14%)
Rim
52.0%
458 FGA (32%)
Above Break Three
36.2%
610 FGA (42%)
Long Midrange
38.3%
175 FGA (12%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
12.65
Load Tier
Average
Eff Delta
+0.7%
USG%
22.0%
Tendencies
Salary
$25.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
Player Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.472

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $25,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.748
Expected WM
3.531
Dev Residual
+0.2170
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
4.027
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
D
Darius Blackwell New Orleans Hurricanes 21 4.0 99.0% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 98.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser
T
Toso Benhayoune Salt Lake City Saints 24 4.0 98.4% Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
C
Chavis Weddle Salt Lake City Saints 26 4.0 97.7% Secondary Creator / Chaser
M
Marcus Pendleton Oakland Tritons 21 3.0 97.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
14.3
Years to Peak
3
Current Win Value
13.9
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.677
Projected Peak WV
2.759
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
2
WV Growth
+0.082

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 15 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 12 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 15 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 17 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 19 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 6 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 18 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 17 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 13 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 11 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 11 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 6 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 18 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 15 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 17 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 18 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 16 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 2 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 18 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 4 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 15 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 17 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 17 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 16 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 17 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 13 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 12 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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