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Tiago Fernandes

Tiago Fernandes

PF

Nashville Stars · Versatile Big / Mobile Big

Póvoa de Lanhoso, Portugal

Steely post-scoring forward

A fringe power forward averaging 10.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 0.8 APG. Excels in ball dominance (19 rating, 99th pctl), pick-and-roll execution (19 rating, 99th pctl) and post execution (18 rating, 95th pctl). Limited by help defense (6 rating, 2nd pctl) and foul drawing (7 rating, 5th pctl).

38
Impact
47
Future
4.0
CA
2.5
PA
23
Age
$12.0M
Salary
3.438
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(2)
O Post Hub (S) O Glass Cleaner (S)
Naz Reid
NBA Comparison
Naz Reid
2024-25
84%
Style
84%
Level
6'9" · 264lbs
12.0/5.5/1.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Alt comp
Bobby Portis
2023-24 · 77%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 13.6
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (6yr away)
Future Value: 47
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 10.6 60
RPG 6.4 82
APG 0.8 25
SPG 0.4 33
BPG 1.0 73
MPG 23.1 55
Shooting
FG% 0.426 23
3P% 0.373 61
FT% 0.842 60
TS% 0.521 16
Impact
Impact 38 14
Off Impact 40 17
Def Impact 50 54
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 13.3 39
WS -0.1 5
Box Score Impact -6.3 2
Value Over Replacement -1.7 2
Positional BSI -1.77 -4.53

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
Post Defense 18 (coef=0.0333)
Defensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 16 (coef=0.0196)
Ball Dominance 19 (coef=0.0152)
Inside Shooting 17 (coef=0.0155)
Weaknesses
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 2 (coef=0.0330)
Passing 9 (coef=0.0156)
Shoot Off Dribble 3 (coef=0.0134)
First Step 9 (coef=0.0112)
Foul Drawing 7 (coef=0.0102)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 10.6 11.5 -0.9
RPG 6.4 6.9 -0.5
APG 0.8 1.4 -0.6
SPG 0.4 0.6 -0.2
BPG 1.0 1.1 -0.1
TPG - 1.2
FG% 0.426 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.373 0.3 +0.0
FT% 0.842 0.5 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
73:27%

Positional Fit

Guard 70%
Wing 50%
Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Below-average score driven by weak Hidden Rating Impact. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict.

38 / 100 #382 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.46z
On-Court Impact -1.08 (Off -0.81, Def -0.28)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -0.54z
Win Model Score: 3.4213
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
40
#370
Defense
50
#223
Confidence
96%
1526 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: -1.77 Actual: -6.3 -4.53
Significantly underperforming PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

47 / 100 #333 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 49
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 48
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 42
Future Value above current Impact (38) — trajectory is positive

League Percentile Profile

PPG
50
TS%
11
BPM
1
WS/48
4
RAPM
40
USG%
80
PA/100
13
BCI
2

Shot Quality

PA/100
-10.43
Points Added
-69.6
Selection
0.967
FGA
668
Zone Breakdown
Short Midrange
31.3%
179 FGA (27%)
Long Midrange
27.0%
37 FGA (6%)
Rim
45.6%
281 FGA (42%)
Above Break Three
37.0%
162 FGA (24%)
Other
44.4%
9 FGA (1%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
2.21
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-5.6%
USG%
23.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$12.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.342

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $12,000,000 Nashville Stars exercised option

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.421
Expected WM
3.384
Dev Residual
+0.0376
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Model
3.811
PA Tier
Low
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
G
Gleb Luzan Indiana Stonecutters 20 4.0 97.1% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
N
Nikola Kojic Chicago Jailbirds 19 3.0 96.9% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
J
Jarvis Cannon Oakland Tritons 27 5.0 96.4% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
I
Ishaq Osten Cleveland Giants 23 5.0 96.2% Versatile Big / Mobile Big
L
LeAndre Kokal Louisville Colonels 25 4.5 96.0% Versatile Big / Mobile Big

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
13.6
Years to Peak
6
Current Win Value
12.0
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.767
Projected Peak WV
3.116
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
6
WV Growth
+0.350

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 7 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 6 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 5 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 19 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 7 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 11 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 18 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 9 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 13 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 12 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 18 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 16 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 18 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 19 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 9 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 13 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 16 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 16 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 2 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 3 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 13 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 17 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 18 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 12 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 8 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 5 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 15 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 9 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 8 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 7 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 12 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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