Tyrae Lewis

Denver Dragons · Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper

College: Michigan State · Chicago, Illinois

Flashy 3-and-d guard

A fringe shooting guard averaging 13.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.4 APG. Excels in toughness (17 rating, 100th pctl), athleticism (17 rating, 93rd pctl) and first step (16 rating, 88th pctl). Limited by post defense (1 rating, 5th pctl) and foul drawing (9 rating, 12th pctl).

Impact

Future

3.5

5.0

Age

$6.2M

Salary

2.885

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(5)

O Posterizer (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Slasher (B) D Interceptor (B) D Clamps (B)

NBA Comparison

Jaden Ivey

2024-25

82%

Style

82%

Level

6'4" · 195lbs

14.0/3.5/3.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)

Alt comp

Malik Monk

2024-25 · 81%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 15.0

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (10yr away)

Future Value: 46

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	13.5	72
RPG	3.2	48
APG	3.4	74
SPG	1.5	84
BPG	0.2	43
MPG	30.7	77
Shooting
FG%	0.406	15
3P%	0.325	37
FT%	0.849	64
TS%	0.499	8
Impact
Impact	24	2
Off Impact	28	4
Def Impact	41	18
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	11.0	21
WS	-0.7	2
Box Score Impact	-3.4	14
Value Over Replacement	-0.9	5
Positional BSI	-1.41	-1.99

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

Passing 17 (coef=0.0156)

Stealing 17 (coef=0.0145)

Ball Dominance 14 (coef=0.0152)

Shoot Off Dribble 14 (coef=0.0134)

First Step 16 (coef=0.0112)

Weaknesses

Post Defense 1 (coef=0.0333)

Defensive Rebounding 7 (coef=0.0226)

Rim Protection 5 (coef=0.0168)

Offensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0160)

Inside Shooting 15 (coef=0.0155)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	13.5	16.1	-2.5
RPG	3.2	3.9	-0.7
APG	3.4	4.6	-1.2
SPG	1.5	1.4	+0.1
BPG	0.2	0.6	-0.4
TPG	-	1.7
FG%	0.406	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.325	0.3	-0.0
FT%	0.849	0.5	+0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency

28:72%

Denver Gap Fit

Rating	Player	Denver Avg	Top 3	Delta
Foul Drawing	9	11.4	14.4	-2.4
Defensive Rebounding	7	11.9	14.8	-4.9
Playmaking	9	9.8	12.6	-0.8
Offensive Rebounding	8	10.7	13.4	-2.7
Post Execution	2	6.0	8.6	-4.0
Self-Creation	12	13.5	15.7	-1.5
Ball Handling	16	11.8	13.7	+4.2
Finishing	16	14.4	16.1	+1.6
3PT Shooting	14	14.3	16.0	-0.3
Help Defense	11	14.1	15.7	-3.1

Positional Fit

Guard 80%

Wing 80%

Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Replacement-level score driven by weak On-Court Impact. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict. Defense is the primary value driver.

24 / 100 #428 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight -1.51z

On-Court Impact -3.68 (Off -4.12, Def +0.44)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.60z

Win Model Score: 2.8706

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#422

Defense

#366

Confidence

100%

2397 min

Position Model (PG)

Predicted Positional BSI: -1.41 Actual: -3.4 -1.99

Significantly underperforming PG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

46 / 100 #338 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 42

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 44

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 53

Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (24) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-9.37

Points Added

-97.9

Selection

0.981

FGA

1045

Zone Breakdown

Short Midrange

32.3%

186 FGA (18%)

Above Break Three

32.6%

386 FGA (37%)

Long Midrange

38.5%

130 FGA (12%)

Rim

48.4%

343 FGA (33%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

8.38

Load Tier

Poor

Eff Delta

-7.8%

USG%

22.3%

Tendencies

Salary

$6.2M

Years Left

Expiry

2052

Option

Team Option

Status

Trade Value

0.514

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$6,250,000
2051-52	$6,250,000
Total Owed	$12,500,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

2.871

Expected WM

3.308

Dev Residual

-0.4370

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

3.651

PA Tier

High

Upside Gap

1.5

Dev Status

Behind Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
N	Nico Gillespie	Mexico City Jaguars	30	4.0	97.7%	Shot Creator / Point Of Attack
D	Darius Blackwell	New Orleans Hurricanes	21	4.0	97.4%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
T	Toso Benhayoune	Salt Lake City Saints	24	4.0	97.0%	Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
C	Chavis Weddle	Salt Lake City Saints	26	4.0	97.0%	Secondary Creator / Chaser
D	Denzel Cruz	Dallas Predators	21	4.0	97.0%	Slasher / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

15.0

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

11.2

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

2.078

Projected Peak WV

2.775

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.696

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	9	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	11	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	16	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	14	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	15	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	10	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	2	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	9	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	17	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	16	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	7	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	8	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	16	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	15	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	17	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	12	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	15	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	14	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	16	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	15	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	14	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	5	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	15	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	1	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	13	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	8	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	10	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	16	+0.00	Unknown	-
Work Ethic	15	+0.00	Unknown	-
Leadership	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
Discipline	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
Professionalism	4	+0.00	Unknown	-
Aggression	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
Toughness	17	+0.00	Unknown	-
Hustle	16	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	16	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	14	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	14	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	17	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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