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Adam Hines

Adam Hines

SF

Seattle Thunder · Movement Shooter / Wing Stopper

College: Indiana · New Albany, Indiana

Skilled two-way shooting wing

A star-level wing averaging 4.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 1.2 APG. Excels in passing (20 rating, 100th pctl), stealing (19 rating, 99th pctl) and defensive rebounding (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by strength (6 rating, 20th pctl) and post defense (4 rating, 24th pctl).

59
Impact
64
Future
5.0
CA
3.5
PA
30
Age
$6.0M
Salary
3.815
Bal WV

Skill Badges

(12)
O Gravity Generator (S) O Iso Scorer (B) O Lob Threat (B) O Floor General (B) O Pull-Up Threat (B) O PnR Maestro (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Pop Threat (B) O Slasher (B) O Floater Game (B) D Interceptor (S) D Help Defender (B)
Jalen Williams
NBA Comparison
Poor Man's Jalen Williams
2024-25
74%
Style
74%
Level
6'6" · 210lbs
21.6/5.3/5.1 (PPG/RPG/APG)
Efficient scorer 3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler
Alt comp
Jimmy Butler
2022-23 · 70%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 14.0
Stage: Prime
Peak Age: 31 (past peak)
Future Value: 64
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 4.8 23
RPG 1.6 23
APG 1.2 38
SPG 0.7 52
BPG 0.2 43
MPG 8.3 14
Shooting
FG% 0.511 75
3P% 0.292 28
FT% 0.778 34
TS% 0.593 63
Impact
Impact 59 78
Off Impact 62 86
Def Impact 51 59
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating - 12
WS 2.4 45
Box Score Impact 4.8 95
Value Over Replacement 1.4 70
Positional BSI 2.85 +1.95

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
Defensive Rebounding 19 (coef=0.0226)
3PT Shooting 17 (coef=0.0196)
Passing 20 (coef=0.0156)
Stealing 19 (coef=0.0145)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 4 (coef=0.0333)
Post Execution 4 (coef=0.0074)
Speed 9 (coef=-0.0030)
Strength 6 (coef=0.0012)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 4.8 3.2 +1.6
RPG 1.6 2.5 -0.8
APG 1.2 1.6 -0.4
SPG 0.7 0.6 +0.1
BPG 0.2 0.2 +0.0
TPG - 0.4
FG% 0.511 0.5 +0.1
3P% 0.292 0.3 -0.0
FT% 0.778 0.5 +0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency
74:26%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%
Wing 90%
Big 90%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong On-Court Impact.

59 / 100 #106 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.79z
On-Court Impact +2.00 (Off +2.18, Def -0.19)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +0.71z
Win Model Score: 3.7984
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
62
#67
Defense
51
#202
Confidence
73%
831 min
Position Model (PF)
Predicted Positional BSI: 2.85 Actual: 4.8 +1.95
Significantly outperforming PF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

64 / 100 #55 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 66
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 67
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 57
Future Value above current Impact (59) — trajectory is positive

Shot Quality

PA/100
+10.05
Points Added
+53.9
Selection
1.058
FGA
536
Zone Breakdown
Rim
56.5%
138 FGA (26%)
Above Break Three
40.8%
292 FGA (55%)
Short Midrange
43.1%
58 FGA (11%)
Long Midrange
61.7%
47 FGA (9%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)
Tendencies
Salary
$6.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
2051
Option
None
Status
-
Trade Value
0.537

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $6,000,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
3.798
Expected WM
3.857
Dev Residual
-0.0582
Peak Age
26
Peak Win Model
3.635
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
-1.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
Z
Zaire Phifer Las Vegas Scorpions 24 5.0 98.3% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
C
Cole Starkweather Phoenix Vultures 23 4.0 98.3% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
L
Lance Jacobsen Pittsburgh Vipers 30 4.0 97.9% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
K
Kourtlin Bechard Toronto Huskies 20 4.5 97.9% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
L
Laurynas Linartas Atlanta Devils 21 4.5 97.5% Shot Creator / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Prime
Peak Age
31
Peak Win Value
14.0
Years to Peak
-1
Current Win Value
14.0
Confidence
HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.797
Projected Peak WV
2.800
Peak Age
31
Years to Peak
1
WV Growth
+0.003

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 16 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 18 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 17 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 16 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 18 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 10 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 4 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 15 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 19 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 15 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 19 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 13 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 6 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 18 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 20 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 17 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 17 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 17 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 14 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 16 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 10 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 16 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 4 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 14 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 9 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 9 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 14 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 13 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 17 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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