Azar Lawton

Minneapolis Blizzards · Stationary Shooter / Wing Stopper

College: NC State · Greensboro, North Carolina

Lengthy two-way shooting wing

An elite two-way wing averaging 15.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.3 APG. Excels in basketball IQ (20 rating, 100th pctl), perimeter defense (20 rating, 100th pctl) and isolation scoring (19 rating, 99th pctl). Limited by first step (7 rating, 17th pctl).

Impact

Future

5.0

4.5

Age

$27.5M

Salary

4.049

Bal WV

Skill Badges

(13)

O Gravity Generator (S) O Floor General (S) O Floater Game (S) O Iso Scorer (S) O Sniper (B) O Ankle Breaker (B) O Catch & Shoot (B) O Shot Creator (B) O Posterizer (B) O Pop Threat (B) D Interceptor (S) D Clamps (B) D Pick Dodger (B)

NBA Comparison

Dejounte Murray

2024-25

77%

Style

77%

Level

6'4" · 180lbs

21.4/3.9/6.0 (PPG/RPG/APG)

3PT specialist Lockdown defender Ball handler

Alt comp

Damian Lillard

2024-25 · 74%

2050 Projection

Peak Ridge: 15.4

Stage: Developing

Peak Age: 29 (4yr away)

Future Value: 64

Stat	Value	Pctl
Per Game
PPG	15.7	82
RPG	5.3	75
APG	5.3	89
SPG	1.9	98
BPG	0.6	58
MPG	32.0	87
Shooting
FG%	0.438	32
3P%	0.382	66
FT%	0.73	23
TS%	0.56	39
Impact
Impact	68	92
Off Impact	57	74
Def Impact	74	96
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating	16.4	70
WS	6.3	85
Box Score Impact	3.6	89
Value Over Replacement	3.7	93
Positional BSI	2.98	+0.62

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths

On-Ball Perimeter Defense 20 (coef=0.0330)

Defensive Rebounding 18 (coef=0.0226)

3PT Shooting 19 (coef=0.0196)

Passing 18 (coef=0.0156)

Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0155)

Weaknesses

Rim Protection 6 (coef=0.0168)

First Step 7 (coef=0.0112)

Post Execution 3 (coef=0.0074)

Pick & Roll Execution 9 (coef=0.0014)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat	Actual	Expected	Delta
PPG	15.7	17.3	-1.6
RPG	5.3	5.8	-0.5
APG	5.3	4.8	+0.5
SPG	1.9	1.5	+0.4
BPG	0.6	0.7	-0.1
TPG	-	1.8
FG%	0.438	0.5	-0.0
3P%	0.382	0.4	-0.0
FT%	0.73	0.5	+0.3

Play Style

Driving Frequency

35:65%

Positional Fit

Guard 90%

Wing 90%

Big 80%

Player Impact Breakdown

Solid starter score driven by strong Win Model Score. Defense is the primary value driver.

68 / 100 #37 of 435

On-Court Impact — 60% weight +0.86z

On-Court Impact +2.16 (Off -0.37, Def +2.53)

Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight +1.41z

Win Model Score: 4.0326

Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z

Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)

Offense

#122

Defense

#20

Confidence

100%

2594 min

Position Model (SG)

Predicted Positional BSI: 2.98 Actual: 3.6 +0.62

Outperforming SG model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

64 / 100 #53 of 450

Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 76

Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 75

Contract Surplus — 30% weight 36

Future Value in line with current Impact (68)

League Percentile Profile

PPG

TS%

BPM

WS/48

RAPM

USG%

PA/100

BCI

Shot Quality

PA/100

-4.22

Points Added

-52.0

Selection

1.031

FGA

1231

Zone Breakdown

Above Break Three

36.8%

604 FGA (49%)

Rim

52.4%

334 FGA (27%)

Short Midrange

37.5%

192 FGA (16%)

Long Midrange

28.0%

100 FGA (8%)

Other

100.0%

1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation

14.97

Load Tier

Below Average

Eff Delta

-1.6%

USG%

20.8%

Tendencies

Salary

$27.5M

Years Left

Expiry

2051

Option

Player Option

Status

Trade Value

0.557

Contract Breakdown

Season	Salary	Notes
2050-51	$27,500,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score

4.033

Expected WM

3.882

Dev Residual

+0.1506

Peak Age

Peak Win Model

4.033

PA Tier

High

Upside Gap

-0.5

Dev Status

Ahead of Curve

Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

	Player	Team	Age	CA	Similarity	Archetype
X	Xavier Yates	Chicago Jailbirds	20	4.5	98.7%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
C	Carsen Christos	Oklahoma City Barons	25	4.0	98.1%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
K	Kourtlin Bechard	Toronto Huskies	20	4.5	97.8%	Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
H	Hasheem Black	Dallas Predators	25	4.5	97.7%	Slasher / Wing Stopper
T	Thiago Andrade	Atlanta Devils	22	2.5	97.7%	Stationary Shooter / Wing Stopper

Predicted Archetype

Offensive

Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage

Developing

Peak Age

Peak Win Value

15.4

Years to Peak

Current Win Value

14.8

Confidence

HIGH

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV

3.074

Projected Peak WV

3.204

Peak Age

Years to Peak

WV Growth

+0.131

Rating Trainability

Rating	Current	Growth/yr	Class	Peak Age
Foul Drawing	15	+1.23	High Growth	31
Help Defense	13	+0.66	High Growth	27
Off-Ball Defense	19	+0.55	High Growth	28
Ball Dominance	15	+0.55	High Growth	28
Gravity	19	+0.52	High Growth	29
Spacing	13	+0.45	High Growth	18
Post Execution	3	+0.40	High Growth	29
Playmaking	19	+0.40	High Growth	29
Stealing	18	+0.38	High Growth	19
Finishing	18	+0.37	High Growth	27
Defensive Rebounding	18	+0.37	High Growth	18
Offensive Rebounding	10	+0.36	High Growth	18
Strength	15	+0.35	High Growth	18
Pick & Roll Execution	9	+0.34	High Growth	18
Passing	18	+0.33	High Growth	18
Self-Creation	18	+0.32	High Growth	19
Isolation Execution	19	+0.32	High Growth	18
3PT Shooting	19	+0.31	High Growth	19
Ball Handling	18	+0.30	High Growth	19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense	20	+0.30	High Growth	18
Shoot Off Dribble	11	+0.28	Moderate Growth	18
Rim Protection	6	+0.26	Moderate Growth	18
Inside Shooting	18	+0.25	Moderate Growth	18
Post Defense	10	+0.17	Moderate Growth	18
Basketball IQ	20	+0.07	Low Growth	19
Endurance	15	+0.05	Low Growth	20
Speed	18	+0.01	Low Growth	18
Free Throws	14	+0.00	Unknown	-
First Step	7	-0.01	Low Growth	18
Mid-Range Shooting	17	-0.03	Low Growth	19
Quickness	11	-0.08	Low Growth	19
Athleticism	13	-0.08	Low Growth	19

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