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Thiago Andrade

Thiago Andrade

SG

Atlanta Devils · Stationary Shooter / Wing Stopper

Carmo, Brazil

Developing wing

A fringe scoring shooting guard averaging 16.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.3 APG. Excels in 1.7 SPG (93rd pctl), free throws (17 rating, 88th pctl) and 16.8 PPG (87th pctl). Limited by finishing (7 rating, 3rd pctl) and pick-and-roll execution (5 rating, 7th pctl).

26
Impact
42
Future
2.5
CA
3.0
PA
22
Age
$1.9M
Salary
2.887
Bal WV
Paul George
NBA Comparison
Paul George
2023-24
85%
Style
85%
Level
6'8" · 220lbs
22.6/5.2/3.5 (PPG/RPG/APG)
3PT specialist Lockdown defender
Alt comp
Trey Murphy III
2024-25 · 72%
2050 Projection
Peak Ridge: 12.8
Stage: Developing
Peak Age: 29 (4yr away)
Future Value: 42
Stat Value Pctl
Per Game
PPG 16.8 87
RPG 3.6 54
APG 1.3 40
SPG 1.7 93
BPG 0.4 51
MPG 29.8 74
Shooting
FG% 0.439 32
3P% 0.306 31
FT% 0.84 60
TS% 0.546 29
Impact
Impact 26 4
Off Impact 28 4
Def Impact 47 39
Advanced
Player Efficiency Rating 13.1 36
WS -0.9 1
Box Score Impact -6.5 2
Value Over Replacement -2.5 1
Positional BSI -4.19 -2.31

Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)

Strengths
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 (coef=0.0330)
Stealing 15 (coef=0.0145)
Foul Drawing 15 (coef=0.0102)
Basketball IQ 17 (coef=0.0078)
Mid-Range Shooting 15 (coef=0.0069)
Weaknesses
Post Defense 6 (coef=0.0333)
Spacing 8 (coef=0.0196)
Rim Protection 7 (coef=0.0168)
Offensive Rebounding 5 (coef=0.0160)
Passing 9 (coef=0.0156)

Expected vs Actual Production

Stat Actual Expected Delta
PPG 16.8 14.2 +2.6
RPG 3.6 4.3 -0.7
APG 1.3 2.7 -1.4
SPG 1.7 1.3 +0.4
BPG 0.4 0.8 -0.3
TPG - 1.6
FG% 0.439 0.5 -0.0
3P% 0.306 0.3 -0.0
FT% 0.84 0.4 +0.4

Play Style

Driving Frequency
81:19%

Positional Fit

Guard 60%
Wing 80%
Big 60%

Player Impact Breakdown

Replacement-level score driven by weak Win Model Score. Underperforms what his visible ratings predict. Defense is the primary value driver.

26 / 100 #423 of 435
On-Court Impact — 60% weight -0.58z
On-Court Impact -1.40 (Off -1.74, Def +0.34)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight -1.79z
Win Model Score: 2.8741
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight +0.00z
Hidden Rating Impact: +0.0000 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
28
#422
Defense
47
#290
Confidence
100%
2233 min
Position Model (SF)
Predicted Positional BSI: -4.19 Actual: -6.5 -2.31
Significantly underperforming SF model predictions

Future Value

Forward-looking complement to Impact Score — who will be valuable going forward, factoring in age, contract efficiency, and development trajectory.

42 / 100 #395 of 450
Cumulative Wins — 50% weight 35
Peak Ceiling — 20% weight 34
Contract Surplus — 30% weight 58
Future Value significantly exceeds current Impact (26) — buy-low candidate with major upside

League Percentile Profile

PPG
84
TS%
24
BPM
0
WS/48
2
RAPM
29
USG%
87
PA/100
12
BCI
4

Shot Quality

PA/100
-11.03
Points Added
-126.1
Selection
1.077
FGA
1143
Zone Breakdown
Above Break Three
30.6%
536 FGA (47%)
Long Midrange
43.5%
62 FGA (5%)
Short Midrange
37.9%
116 FGA (10%)
Rim
55.1%
428 FGA (37%)
Other
0.0%
1 FGA (0%)

Creation & Scoring Load

Box Creation
2.94
Load Tier
Poor
Eff Delta
-3.1%
USG%
25.5%
Tendencies
Salary
$1.9M
Years Left
2
Expiry
2052
Option
Team Option
Status
-
Trade Value
0.233

Contract Breakdown

Season Salary Notes
2050-51 $1,950,000
2051-52 $1,950,000
Total Owed $3,900,000

Win Model Development

Win Model Score
2.874
Expected WM
3.250
Dev Residual
-0.3756
Peak Age
33
Peak Win Model
3.342
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
0.5
Dev Status
Behind Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating × coefficient) from multi-season Ridge regression (n=393, 11 seasons, 12/32 stable coefficients). Defense and shooting dominate. Unbiased across positions.

Win Model Trajectory

Most Similar Players

Player Team Age CA Similarity Archetype
A
Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 30 4.5 97.0% Secondary Creator / Chaser
M
Martynas Rutkauskas Charlotte Drones 23 3.0 96.6% Secondary Creator / Chaser
J
Jonas Baumann San Diego Calaveras 20 3.5 96.3% Secondary Creator / Chaser
Q
Quintin Tomlinson Baltimore Bullets 24 4.0 96.2% Secondary Creator / Wing Stopper
D
Denzel Cruz Dallas Predators 21 4.0 96.2% Slasher / Chaser

Predicted Archetype

Offensive
Defensive

Win Value Development

Stage
Developing
Peak Age
29
Peak Win Value
12.8
Years to Peak
4
Current Win Value
10.6
Confidence
MEDIUM

Win Value Trajectory

Empirical Dev Curve (Multiverse)

Current WV
2.133
Projected Peak WV
2.593
Peak Age
29
Years to Peak
7
WV Growth
+0.460

Rating Trainability

Rating Current Growth/yr Class Peak Age
Foul Drawing 15 +1.23 High Growth 31
Help Defense 13 +0.66 High Growth 27
Off-Ball Defense 9 +0.55 High Growth 28
Ball Dominance 10 +0.55 High Growth 28
Gravity 11 +0.52 High Growth 29
Spacing 8 +0.45 High Growth 18
Post Execution 2 +0.40 High Growth 29
Playmaking 5 +0.40 High Growth 29
Stealing 15 +0.38 High Growth 19
Finishing 7 +0.37 High Growth 27
Defensive Rebounding 11 +0.37 High Growth 18
Offensive Rebounding 5 +0.36 High Growth 18
Strength 11 +0.35 High Growth 18
Pick & Roll Execution 5 +0.34 High Growth 18
Passing 9 +0.33 High Growth 18
Self-Creation 15 +0.32 High Growth 19
Isolation Execution 15 +0.32 High Growth 18
3PT Shooting 15 +0.31 High Growth 19
Ball Handling 8 +0.30 High Growth 19
On-Ball Perimeter Defense 16 +0.30 High Growth 18
Shoot Off Dribble 9 +0.28 Moderate Growth 18
Rim Protection 7 +0.26 Moderate Growth 18
Inside Shooting 14 +0.25 Moderate Growth 18
Post Defense 6 +0.17 Moderate Growth 18
Basketball IQ 17 +0.07 Low Growth 19
Endurance 6 +0.05 Low Growth 20
Speed 16 +0.01 Low Growth 18
Free Throws 17 +0.00 Unknown -
First Step 9 -0.01 Low Growth 18
Mid-Range Shooting 15 -0.03 Low Growth 19
Quickness 14 -0.08 Low Growth 19
Athleticism 13 -0.08 Low Growth 19
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